Dutchy'$ Footy 2009 Season thread

[Dr Awkward]

PM me and Ill reply about the system

The stats I look at are days break between the last 3 games, travel in the past month, Scoring shots for/against, I50's for/against, scores in the current season - I have some ratios from all the above data that helps

Way too much emphasis in footy tipping/punting is put on selections, I hardly look at the teams, I look more at their injury lists to see how much they are relying on depth in general

Thats interesting to hear...
I dont think selections matter so much as injuries to lots of key players (eg- Collingwood had heaps on injuries early this year and started slowly, as did Hawthorn who never came back, now Geel has heaps of injuries and they are going crap, Dogs are just starting to get a couple and drop off a bit also, whereas Adel and Bris have both had pretty good runs with injuries this year and thus hit some purple patches).

So I'v always thought there is a pattern between key injuries and results (and the odds usually adjust accordingly) but small selection changes as you say, shouldnt make much difference.

Having said all this, it amazed me that St Kilda were able to win with that many players out.

 

[Dutchy10]

Sturt -28.5
$100 @ $2.00

Brisbane -3.5 ***ITSADUD***
$165 @ $1.91

Collingwood/Richmond Under 196.5
$110 @ $1.90

 

[2121]

wow 1.90 they're offering for under 196.5, ill be taking that.

 

[2121]

wtf tab are offering 1.78 under 192. bloody rip offs but i still took it

 

[murphy2bedabest]

wtf tab are offering 1.78 under 192. bloody rip offs but i still took it

Dont look at the score Tigers getting Smashed

 

[2121]

haha that was flipping shocking.... 152 points kicked agaisnt them geez ...

 

[Dutchy10]

Port/Carlton Under 189.5 points
$165 @ $1.90

Freo +15.5/Carlton +17.5/Saints Win
$250 @ $2.00

 

[Death]

Port/Carlton Under 189.5 points
$165 @ $1.90

Last 5 minutes of that game just about gave me a heart attack.

 

[X_box_X]

Two questions:

1) Does betfair allow you to place a multibet in AFL matches?

2) Are there any sites with good value odds that have a free bet promotion that aren't Sportingbet, SportsBet or Centrebet?

 

[mike262]

Two questions:

1) Does betfair allow you to place a multibet in AFL matches?

2) Are there any sites with good value odds that have a free bet promotion that aren't Sportingbet, SportsBet or Centrebet?

bet365. 100% bonus of inital deposit up to $200. ie. a $200 free bet.

 

[X_box_X]

bet365. 100% bonus of inital deposit up to $200. ie. a $200 free bet.

Something like that would be good, but unless I'm not looking properly, there are no odds on that site for round 21 games. Do they usually have odds on head-to-head outcomes by the end of the week?

 

[Dutchy10]

Bullies +7.5
$165 @ $1.92

Bullies/Geelong Under 202.5
$165 @ $1.90

 

[asanque]

Bullies +7.5
$165 @ $1.92

Bullies/Geelong Under 202.5
$165 @ $1.90

Crap

My thoughts are the exact opposite for both bets.
Last time they played they scored 230.
Both sides have some very handy ins.
My thoughts are a high scoring encounter.

Might have to change to a no bet for this match.

 

[asanque]

Meh one right and one wrong.
Hate it when that happens, means a slight loss.

 

[Dutchy10]

Kick after the siren kills the under

 

[mike262]

Something like that would be good, but unless I'm not looking properly, there are no odds on that site for round 21 games. Do they usually have odds on head-to-head outcomes by the end of the week?

yer odds are out now. they didnt come out till about thurs. btw if u want the $200 free bet you have to roll over $1200 first.

 

[Dutchy10]

Bit of a big multi but I cant see it losing -

Adelaide/Cartlon/Brisbane/Centrals/Saints/Hawks+24.5/Collingwood+24.5
$440 @ $1.91

Carlton/Melbourne Under 195.5
$165 @ $1.90

Port/Brisbane Under 192.5
$165 @ $1.90

 

[adii_7]

carl melb under? i find this a little risky.

 

[asanque]

Wow massive bet Dutchy, biggest of the season.

I'd also think that the Dees v Blues will be well over 200. (2 of the last 3 over 200). Although last one wasn't and their combined records at Etihad aren't good.

The same as Port v Lions. (Last 4 games all over 200)

 

[Dr Awkward]

Bit of a big multi but I cant see it losing -

Adelaide/Cartlon/Brisbane/Centrals/Saints/Hawks+24.5/Collingwood+24.5
$440 @ $1.91

Carlton/Melbourne Under 195.5
$165 @ $1.90

Port/Brisbane Under 192.5
$165 @ $1.90

Geez I have to say that I dont really like any of those bets... a 7-leg multi paying $1.91 seems like suicide (at least in the long run), goes against all my rules. Wont be following any of these, but you've been the better punter than me this year so good luck

 

[Dutchy10]

Collingwood/Sydney over 178.5
$110 @ $1.90

Essendon Win
$160 @ $1.96

West Adelaide +20.5
$115 @ $1.87

 

[DonMania#5]

Bit of a big multi but I cant see it losing -
Adelaide/Cartlon/Brisbane/Centrals/Saints/Hawks+24.5/Collingwood+24.5
$440 @ $1.91

Bad luck..

 

[asanque]

Heartbreaker.
I had two big multis go down on the St Kilda leg too

Not a good round for multi punters.

 

[Willis]

Heartbreaker.
I had two big multis go down on the St Kilda leg too

Not a good round for multi punters.

Add me to the list of pissed off punters..

I knew there was a reason I hated St Kilda....

 

[Trevanian]

Add me to the list of pissed off punters..

I knew there was a reason I hated St Kilda....

They are gonna choke there way into the finals.