Are kids going to pegs or getting scholarships earlier, as there seems to be all the top picks are Sandringham or Oakleigh alignedThe aps players have always missed large chunks of the season. Even back when Calder was successful they had players like wallis, libba missing most of the season playing for st kevs, or players at pegs etc.
I think the issue is 3 pronged.
1. The talent in the north west ( Calder and western) is not at the same level it once was, the quality coming through has significantly dropped off in the past 10 years. So there is a smaller pool of talent to pick from. Just have to look at greenvale as a case study. They used to have 4-5 players every year on calders list that actually grew up in the suburb. Junior numbers playing u16 and u18 in the wrfl have shrunk, while they’re strong as ever in the East and top that with a lot are coming through the aps system and getting top quality development.
2. A lot of clubs in the region don’t invest in their junior development, most money is put into the senior program. Compare that to the East where a lot of juniors come through the Yarra junior football league where there are no senior teams involved with the club, so all money is reinvested in the junior players. Better coaching leads to better development, compare that with some dad who is volunteering with little coaching experience.
3. The aps system has got so strong which afl clubs actually like, and can often have more scouts at aps games than nab league during the school football period. Even though it’s a lesser quality to nab league, it can only take 1 dominant performance and suddenly they get the attention of scouts who then watch them closely for the rest of the season, it’d be like scouts coming down and watching a kid dominate for Keilor or strathmore - suddenly they’d see them in a different light, but that doesn’t happen. These days it can be a bigger tick for players if they’re part of an aps program in eyes of recruiters, for the off field side of things.
Couple that with calder and westerns program being significantly worst in coaching, and identification of talent. Kids don’t even get a look in unless they’re situated at certain clubs. Recruiters now see western as the second rate program and often kids slip past the point of where they should be drafted. Calder is heading the same way and it needs to be addressed. It’s worrying that literally the whole north west side of Melbourne is no longer getting elite talent consistently into the afl. Calder has not had a top 20 pick that was a junior in the region since 2014, having 3 in the top 14 that year(would’ve been 3 in the top 10 if lever didn’t do his knee). Western has only had 2 players taken in the national draft since 2018. They are horrible statistics.