Emmanuel Macron, President of the French Republic

[Bomberboyokay]

Post-Brexit referendum and the ascension of Trump, France is the next country at risk of a hideous rightward turn.

First Brexit then Donald Trump — is France's far right next?

Analysis
By Albert Lecoanet
Updated about 3 hours ago

After Donald Trump's recent victory in the United States' election, and Brexit in the United Kingdom, attention is now turning to the possibility of other unexpected results just over the horizon.

In Europe, Marine Le Pen's far-right National Front is riding high in the polls and could surprise everyone in the presidential election being held next April in France.

During a visit to Greece last Tuesday, US President Barack Obama had a warning for the world.

"We are going to have to guard against a rise in a crude sort of nationalism or ethnic identity or tribalism that is built around an 'us' and a 'them'," Mr Obama said.

What the President was in part alluding to was the rise of the far right in Europe.

Movements hoping to be next surprise winner

Emboldened by the Brexit vote in the UK and Mr Trump's win in the US, movements like Geert Wilders' Party For Freedom in the Netherlands, Frauke Petry's Alternative for Germany and Ms Le Pen's National Front in France are all hoping to become the next surprise winner.

And there are specific reasons why Ms Le Pen may be on to something here.

Firstly, the French presidential election is only five months away.

The campaign is already in full swing and within both major parties — Les Republicains on the conservative side, and the Parti Socialiste on the left — there are bitter internal divisions.

Les Republicains, which is holding the first round of its primary, have former leaders fighting to become their candidate: ex prime-ministers Alain Juppe, 71, and Francois Fillon, 62, as well as ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy, 61.

The polls currently give Mr Juppe a lead over the other two, but Mr Fillon is gaining ground, partly because he is the "cleaner-looking" candidate.

When Mr Sarkozy entered the Elysee Palace in 2007, his supporters thought he would be the solution to the country's economic woes.

Five years later, and after only one term, he was soundly beaten by socialist Francois Hollande and is still, to this day, directly or indirectly involved in ten court cases including allegations the financing of his 2012 campaign went over the legal limit by almost $32 million.

In 2004, Mr Juppe himself was condemned to a 14-month suspended sentence and one year of ineligibility to hold public office for abusing his position as an elected official.

Neither possess a perfect resume to build public trust.

Instead, their record is assisting Ms Le Pen, who promotes herself as "anti-establishment".

On the Left, the socialists are in many ways worse off than their conservative opponents.

There is no clear champion to represent them and they are crippled with factionalism.

The Socialist Party is holding its primary at the end of January and Mr Hollande, the 62-year-old current President, is yet to declare whether he will run again.

The reason for his indecision may lie in his poor approval rating, which, at 15 per cent, is the worst ever for any president of the Fifth Republic of France, which came into being 58 years ago.

To make matters worse for Mr Hollande, his ex-finance minister, Emmanuel Macron, announced on Wednesday he would be running for president under the banner of his newly-created party En Marche!.

His popularity stands at 33 per cent.

And then there are half a dozen candidates from other leftist parties who will also drain the left-wing vote in the presidential election.

Trust in the elite and establishment is weak

Secondly, the overwhelming perception in France is people are worse off economically even if, as with the Obama administration, figures are showing that the economy is actually going in the right direction.

The unemployment rate has stayed stable at 10 per cent over the past five years, and the huge deficit of the Securite Sociale — the French equivalent of Medicare — is finally on the verge of being tamed after decades of struggle.

Like in Britain and the United States, it seems that no matter what the Government and the President do now, the trust in the elite and the so-called "establishment" will keep getting weaker the closer we get to election day.

Ms Le Pen wants France to abandon the Euro. A preposterous idea only a few months ago, but now, after the success of Brexit, no longer so improbable in France.

The traumatising terrorist attacks of the past year — 129 people died in the Bataclan attack last November in Paris and 84 died in Nice in July when a truck sped through crowds celebrating Bastille Day — and the constant fear of further strikes, are also making the nationalistic and "zero tolerance" messages of Ms Le Pen's National Front more and more popular.

Then there is the massive refugee crisis in Europe, with Le Pen supporters and sympathisers arguing the authorities do not really know how to deal with the issue.

The recent destruction of the Jungle in Calais and the relocation of the 7,000 asylum seekers who lived in the makeshift camp to other parts of France are also fuelling the National Front idea that the country is being invaded and that immigration in general should be drastically reduced.

Trump's chief strategist a fan of Le Pen

And thirdly, Ms Le Pen is steadily rising in the polls.

The incoming Trump administration is already indirectly offering her its support.

Steve Bannon, Mr Trump's newly appointed chief strategist and a figurehead of the alt-right movement that thrives on ethnocentricity and nationalism, has openly declared he is a big fan of Ms Le Pen.

On Wednesday, Ms Le Pen unveiled her campaign logo: a blue rose with the word "president".

The rose is the traditional emblem of the Socialist Party and the colour blue that of the Conservative party

It is a way for her to reinforce the idea the National Front is now one of the main players in the political arena, a notion confirmed by victories in recent elections.

Ms Le Pen's thirst for respectability is also a way to finally put behind her the party's troubled history, particularly those years when her estranged father Jean-Marie Le Pen was at its helm and declared the Nazi regime's gas chambers were "a detail in the history of mankind".

In the 2002 presidential election, Mr Le Pen shocked the world by making it to the second round to face Jacques Chirac, the incumbent president, in the final showdown.

Mr Chirac won by a landslide that year.

But the world is a very different place today. Ms Le Pen is predicted to go through the first round too, next April.

This time, the outcome could well be different.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-20/brexit-trump-is-france-far-right-next/8040094

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Sarkozy, Juppé or Fillon? French presidential hopefuls battle for every vote

Latest update : 2016-11-20

The race for France's conservative presidential nomination looked tighter than ever ahead of Sunday's first round of voting, with polls suggesting whoever emerges on top is likely to make it all the way to the Élysée Palace.

French conservatives on Sunday are being asked to pick their preferred candidate from a field of seven politicians vying for the main opposition Les Républicains presidential nomination. The contest could come down to the wire, with the race narrowing in recent days.

Bordeaux Mayor Alain Juppé once enjoyed a comfortable lead in opinion polls. But he has seen support dwindle while former French president Nicolas Sarkozy maintains even figures and former prime minister François Fillon surges forward.

Juppé told around 2,000 supporters gathered in Lille that it was not enough to applaud him. “You must also go out and vote,” he declared.

“The job will not be easy. To succeed we will need the right plan, tell people the truth, unlike the populists,” Juppé added in a barely-veiled jab at in-party rival Sarkozy.

Sarkozy meanwhile focused on the place of Islam in France when he addressed his own crowd in the southern city of Nimes, repeating a campaign pledge to ban Muslim veils in universities and wage a “relentless war” against Islamist “barbarians”.

“Integration must be replaced by assimilation,” the former president said in reference to young Muslims who he blames for flouting French laws. “One chooses to come to France for its values, not for its welfare.”

Fillon’s last campaign appearance took place in Paris, where the 3,500-seat Palais des Congrès conference centre was filled to capacity. Two conference rooms in nearby hotels were rented out by his campaign to take in overflow from the main venue.

Half of Fillon’s speech was devoted to his plans to deregulate France’s economy. “I want to give the country back its liberty,” he declared, promising to give more power to business owners and cut back on public spending if he becomes president.

Only the two candidates with the most votes will move on to a run-off poll on November 27.

Looking for a ‘new face’

People attending the simultaneous rallies expressed as much contempt for primary rivals as support for their candidate of choice.

“Anyone except Sarkozy,” yelled a middle-aged couple waving French flags on the floor of the Grand Palais convention centre in Lille, echoing a sentiment often expressed by Juppé’s supporters. “We have seen the polls, and we want to show Juppé we are here,” they added.

Louis, a university student who travelled from Montpellier to Nimes to hear Sarkozy speak, said he was unsure who he would support if Sarkozy lost the primary. “Alain Juppé is a Socialist for me, and [MP] Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet should have run in the Green Party primaries instead. I could vote for Fillon, but that would be an extreme case,” he said.

Maxence, another young voter standing nearby, said he would cast a ballot for far-right leader Marine Le Pen if Sarkozy failed to claim Les Républicain’s nomination.

Anne, a 44-year-old finance director from Paris, said she was leaning toward Fillon and had come to his rally to “confirm” her decision. “I think Fillon has presidential character, but we should not repeat history, so a new face is important too,” she said, in what could be interpreted as a dig at Sarkozy, France’s president from 2007 to 2012.

Final debate

The other four primary candidates in the primary contest also tried to woo voters as the election clock ticked down.

Earlier in the day MP Jean-François Copé answered questions on conservative Radio Classique. MP Bruno Le Maire spoke to supporters at a town hall-style meeting in the central city of Brives. Kosciusko-Morizet met with tech executives in the south-west city of Castres, while MP Jean-Frédéric Poisson addressed voters at an auditorium in Marseille.

All the candidates are members of the Les Républicains party, except Poisson, who is the president of the ultra-conservative Christian Democratic Party.

The seven candidates held their third and last debate on Thursday night, all pledging to increase security and France’s military might, but clashing on how to fix Europe and how to deal with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad.

With the candidates largely agreeing on the main issues, the vote is likely to come down to nuances in their programmes and their political record.

The winner of the right-wing primary is likely to become president next year, according to opinion polls.

Ségolene Allemandou, Romain Brunet and Charlotte Boitiaux contributed to this article.

http://www.france24.com/en/20161118...g-primary-final-campaign-juppe-sarkozy-fillon

 

[Mr Gurns]

I think it's high time for a female president in France. Misogyny is terrible. I'm with her! #MLP2017

 

[Sol Invictus]

I think it's high time for a female president in France. Misogyny is terrible. I'm with her! #MLP2017

The alt right/far right are sexist though, how could you support a female for president!?

 

[Taylor]

The colonial history of France in Africa is what is causing that swing to the right, not Trump.

 

[Mr Gurns]

The colonial history of France in Africa is what is causing that swing to the right, not Trump.

"No"

 

[awaremind]

The alt right/far right are sexist though, how could you support a female for president!?

As long as the stupid mainstream media and politicians keep attacking ghosts they will look more and more stupid, they really need to end thier own corruption and lies.

 

[medusala]

Post-Brexit referendum and the ascension of Trump, France is the next country at risk of a hideous rightward turn.

Brexit was a hideous rightward turn?

 

[Bomberboyokay]

Yes.

 

[Todman]

Sarkozy, Juppé or Fillon? French presidential hopefuls battle for every vote

Sarkozy Out.


Sarkozy Concedes Defeat In First Republican Primary, Backs Fillon


by Tyler Durden
Nov 20, 2016 3:49 PM
144
SHARES
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Update: It's official - not only is Sarkozy out, but he is backing Francois Fillon, in a setback for the alleged - if only according to the ever more embarrassing industry of pollsters - frontrunner for the presidency, Alain Juppe, and another big win for Marine Le Pen

 

[madmug]

Brexit was a hideous rightward turn?

I dont see Brexit as a right turn. The choice for most was the economic benefit from Euro zone versus the unfettered flow of people into the UK. The UK is getting crowded & people were sick of having no control of immigration. Sure some of it could be termed racist, but I dont think that was the main driver. Also people felt they missed out on the economic benefits, but the massive inflow of immigrants worried many people.

 

[medusala]

I dont see Brexit as a right turn. The choice for most was the economic benefit from Euro zone versus the unfettered flow of people into the UK.

As blackcat would say cui bono?

Even if there is a net economic benefit (and i would vehemently argue there isnt) who benefits from the economic benefit vs losses from mass migration?

Investment banks are the biggest gainers and the working class the lowest gainers.

Look at Sunderland where Nissan is a massive employer - they voted out. Ditto Wales which is a big recipient of EU cash (UK funded).

How does that fit the narrative?

 

[medusala]

Yes.

Like Yazz, with respect to your posts, I thought the only way is up

I was mistaken.

 

[Cooldude]

I dont see Brexit as a right turn. The choice for most was the economic benefit from Euro zone versus the unfettered flow of people into the UK. The UK is getting crowded & people were sick of having no control of immigration. Sure some of it could be termed racist, but I dont think that was the main driver. Also people felt they missed out on the economic benefits, but the massive inflow of immigrants worried many people.

So nationalism, protect borders, limit immigrants, damn Polish. Sounds like a right turn

 

[awaremind]

So nationalism, protect borders, limit immigrants, damn Polish. Sounds like a right turn

Maybe if the EU wasn't allowing camps such as the "jungle" in Calais, in combination with several horrific slaughters in France such rhetoric could not gain a foothold. Conditions were right for that kind of populism.

 

[Cooldude]

Maybe if the EU wasn't allowing camps such as the "jungle" in Calais, in combination with several horrific slaughters in France such rhetoric could not gain a foothold.

No one argued why it gained a foothold, people are arguing whether it's a right turn

 

[awaremind]

No one argued why it gained a foothold, people are arguing whether it's a right turn

Well border controls really are not something that is inherently either left or right, I would have thought. Demonisation of minorities is often a tool of either left or right authoritarianism.

 

[Cooldude]

Well border controls really are not something that is inherently either left or right, I would have thought. Demonisation of minorities is often a tool of either left or right authoritarianism.

Right wing nationalism are often racially charged, just like elements of the Brexit (Polish workers taking all our jooobs, Muslims are flooding the country, racial hate crime up since Brexit). And it is particularly a right turn when it was used as a power play device by some of the Tories to get into power (or in Boris Johnson's case he thought it'd help him)

 

[madmug]

So nationalism, protect borders, limit immigrants, damn Polish. Sounds like a right turn

Nationalism applies in Uk, USA, China, Vietnam Argentina & yes here too.
Limiting immigration was for a long time a major concern of trade unions who were concerned about job losses.
It simply wrong to call all this right wing.
It affects all areas of society to some extent.

 

[Cooldude]

Nationalism applies in Uk, USA, China, Vietnam Argentina & yes here too.
Limiting immigration was for a long time a major concern of trade unions who were concerned about job losses.
It simply wrong to call all this right wing.
It affects all areas of society to some extent.

Right wing nationalism are often racially charged, just like elements of the Brexit (Polish workers taking all our jooobs, Muslims are flooding the country, racial hate crime up since Brexit). And it is particularly a right turn when it was used as a power play device by some of the Tories to get into power (or in Boris Johnson's case he thought it'd help him)

 

[madmug]

It doesnt take much for the right wing nut jobs to come out from under the rocks when they sense a weakness. Never the less I think the vote in Brexit was not a particularly racist vote, more the fear of lack of control of borders. The UK has survived onslaughts from 'over their' before. The island mentality must by its historic nature be some what defensive. It is only a small island that is getting overpopulated. I believe people sensed that & reacted, Maybe some racism & xenophobia, but some real fear of lack of control. It was a close vote after all. The economic considerations must have worried may as well.

 

[Cooldude]

It doesnt take much for the right wing nut jobs to come out from under the rocks when they sense a weakness. Never the less I think the vote in Brexit was not a particularly racist vote, more the fear of lack of control of borders. The UK has survived onslaughts from 'over their' before. The island mentality must by its historic nature be some what defensive. It is only a small island that is getting overpopulated. I believe people sensed that & reacted, Maybe some racism & xenophobia, but some real fear of lack of control. It was a close vote after all. The economic considerations must have worried may as well.

It's based on "taking back control, taking back our country, taking back sovereignty", it was heavy on the nationalism, about immigrates taking jobs, perceived stronger economy by quitting, motivated by right wingers, with a dose of far right morons like Farage. Nope, right turn

 

[Fire]

It's based on "taking back control, taking back our country, taking back sovereignty", it was heavy on the nationalism, about immigrates taking jobs, perceived stronger economy by quitting, motivated by right wingers, with a dose of far right morons like Farage. Nope, right turn

If you insist.

The way I see it, a lot of free market conservatives were pro-stay, and a lot of trade unionists and classical liberals were pro-leave.

Seems to be along pretty blurry lines to me.

Ultimately if you chose to live in your bubble, you will see what you want to see though. Good luck.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

 

[medusala]

Right wing nationalism are often racially charged, just like elements of the Brexit (Polish workers taking all our jooobs, Muslims are flooding the country, racial hate crime up since Brexit). And it is particularly a right turn when it was used as a power play device by some of the Tories to get into power (or in Boris Johnson's case he thought it'd help him)

Still in meltdown after Trump I see. Lol at your hate crime nonsense (seems like you havent a clue about how its recorded). Johnson was always anti EU, look back over all his public pronouncements on the matter far more so than May and Cameron offered him a top job not to campaign against him.

As for Le Pen, plenty of her economic policies are rather traditional left wing and miles away from UKIP. As for Farage being a moron, you really are clueless. He is no full and had a decent city career. Look at how he wiped the floor with Nick Clegg, he is far more intelligent than most of them.