Roast Essendon in no mans land

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OK but how are they tracking? What kind of players are they? Who are they like (updside and downside)?

I cant quite get a handle on them.

Hobbs is a bit of a one dimensional mid who's stand out skill is his vision by hand plus he's a competitive bastard. Pretty confident he'd be putting up handy stats if he wasn't playing that defensive/high half forward role that players like Perkins and Parish have struggled in before breaking out. The question is is he ever going to be good enough to force his way into the midfield.

Jones is hard to get a handle on. He's super athletic, works hard defensively and has strong hands. The issue is if he doesn't clean run and jump at the ball he's quite easily out bodied by most AFL defenders. Has had quite a few ankle/foot problems as well which makes harder to gauge his development.
 

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OK but how are they tracking? What kind of players are they? Who are they like (updside and downside)?

I cant quite get a handle on them.

Hobbs.
Really competitive. Slow. Primarily undersized inside mid. Charitable comp is Selwood. Fairer comp might be Taylor Adams (as a mid)

Harry jones.
Taller GWS Will Hoskin Elliot. Doesn’t have any wing/HB skills but a mobile 3rd tall. Good speed works hard.

Upside: discount Joe Daniher

Honestly both are fringe best 22 that might struggle to stay in the side this season.
 
played 2 top 8 teams and have been comprehensively beaten both times

How soft must your draw be if this was the hard part?
Even GWS and Melbourne were comprehensively beaten by Sydney away lol. And we drew to the reigning premiers who'll be in the 8 by the end of the week. Given we don't play Port again, only Geelong in the current top 8 concerns me. Horrible match up. The rest are all winnable or at the very least competitive.
 
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Even GWS and Melbourne were comprehensively beaten by Sydney away lol. And we drew to the reigning premiers who'll be in the 8 by the end of the week. Given we don't play Port again, only Geelong in the current top 8 concerns me. Horrible match up. The rest are all winnable or at the very least competitive.
So you have still beaten nobody inside the top 8 and your best result was a draw v the current 9th side.

Other than the game v the Dogs your wins over bottom teams have been less than convincing too

Now that doesn't mean you can't get better as the year goes on, but it just seems very reminiscent of previous years where you get flakey once the weather gets cold. This time last year you guys were looking good for the finals too

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So you have still beaten nobody inside the top 8 and your best result was a draw v the current 9th side.

Other than the game v the Dogs your wins over bottom teams have been less than convincing too

Now that doesn't mean you can't get better as the year goes on, but it just seems very reminiscent of previous years where you get flakey once the weather gets cold. This time last year you guys were looking good for the finals too

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Just out of interest, have you watched Essendon play much this year? Forget about the wins/losses and who they have or haven’t played, how would you say they are actually playing compared to this time last year?
 
Just out of interest, have you watched Essendon play much this year? Forget about the wins/losses and who they have or haven’t played, how would you say they are actually playing compared to this time last year?
compared to the first half of last year or the second half of last year?

Defiantly playing better than how you finished last year, but you looked probably better early last year and fell away. Surely you can see how this doesn't give anyone much confidence that it won't happen again
 

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compared to the first half of last year or the second half of last year?

Defiantly playing better than how you finished last year, but you looked probably better early last year and fell away. Surely you can see how this doesn't give anyone much confidence that it won't happen again
Completely disagree, we are playing a much better brand of football this year than at any stage last year.
Essendon are much harder to play against, defend transition a lot better and their clearance game has gone to a completely different level.

Oh and this time last year we’d lost 4 games, compared to 2 this year, everyone can see we are a much better team than we were, Except maybe you 🤷‍♂️
 
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Bombers will back themselves in pretty much every game for the rest of the year. The "why bother turning up" hard games (Sydney in Sydney and Port in Adelaide) are behind them.

If they are good enough they will win the majority of these upcoming games and make finals
 
Bombers will back themselves in pretty much every game for the rest of the year. The "why bother turning up" hard games (Sydney in Sydney and Port in Adelaide) are behind them.

If they are good enough they will win the majority of these upcoming games and make finals
Even the Sydney game wasn’t that bad this year, we lead for a decent amount of time in that game and were within 10 points with 10 minutes to go, the Port game was horrible though.
 
compared to the first half of last year or the second half of last year?

Defiantly playing better than how you finished last year, but you looked probably better early last year and fell away. Surely you can see how this doesn't give anyone much confidence that it won't happen again

Not sure I agree - last year I came away from 2 games thinking we've played well and actually showed good signs of implementing a system that could stand up against the good teams (Win against Melbourne and Loss to Collingwood on ANZAC Day). On reflection you'd say we caught Melbourne on an off day and the adrenalin of the ANZAC day game.

This year I'd say we looked poor against Hawthorn, Sydney, Port. Hawthorn in particular was terrible Essendon was dominant around the ball but let one of the poorer sides in the comp transition the ball from d50 for easy marks inside 50.

We showed improvement against the Saints and were good against the Bulldogs, West Coast, Adelaide and Collingwood. People are pointing to the Adelaide and West Coast games as negatives because of the close score line but Essendon was dominant in general play with the majority of the game played in our front half with plenty of forward half intercepts.

Obviously there are plenty of reasons to remain sceptical and the ceiling of this group even with something resembling a functional game plan could be middle of the road.
 
So you have still beaten nobody inside the top 8 and your best result was a draw v the current 9th side.

Other than the game v the Dogs your wins over bottom teams have been less than convincing too

Now that doesn't mean you can't get better as the year goes on, but it just seems very reminiscent of previous years where you get flakey once the weather gets cold. This time last year you guys were looking good for the finals too

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Does it though? Collingwood in 2022 were clowned for close wins. Carlton last year were clowned for close wins.

I'm not under any illusion that our list is equal to Collingwood and Carlton, however the way we're winning/playing is far more sustainable than previous years. The driving force behind our form is the midfield, which is far different to the years prior.

Compare the following 2023 and 2024 stats. I can use most years over the last 20 years and it'll be similar to the 2023 stats. I'll use team vs opponent differential as that's a true indicator of performance with the average of each stat in parenthesis. Green is top 8 in the comp and red is bottom 10.

Clearances:
2024 - #2 in differential (38.5 - 4th in the comp)
2023 - #12 in differential (33.8 - 17th in the comp)

Centre clearances:
2024 - #2 in differential (13.5 - 2nd in the comp)
2023 - #11 in differential (12.5 - 4th in the comp)

Stoppage clearances:
2024 - #3 in differential (25.0 - 6th in the comp)
2023 - #13 in differential (21.3 - 18th in the comp)

Contested possessions:
2024 - #5 in differential (132.5 - 7th in the comp)
2023 - #13 in differential (130.4 - 16th in the comp)

Tackles:
2024 - #3 in differential (60.5 - 8th in the comp)
2023 - #2 in differential (57.0 - 16th in the comp)

Inside 50s:
2024 - #8 in differential (53.6 - 8th in the comp)
2023 - #16 in differential (50.4 - 15th in the comp)

There's a big difference between how we play this year and how we played last year. Anyone who watches Essendon games can see that without even looking at the stats. Though Essendon finished 11th last year and placed as high as 5th after round 17, it was obvious we weren't going to do much given the average brand of football we were playing as evidenced above.

The emergence of Perkins, Durham and Caldwell in the midfield makes us more dominant in an area we've struggled in for decades. There's still a long way to go, but the signs are positive even if nothing comes from it this year.
We've already seen how our midfield fell away quite badly vs Port without Durham and an underdone/injured Setterfield so limiting injuries is crucial.

The number one issue that still remains is defending the transition and conceding too many points from turnovers. Maybe Ridley and Reid once their back can help limit that by taking more intercept marks up the ground.
 
Funny thing is last years performances could basically be categorised by if Ridley or Setterfield were playing.

Both = good team. Neither/underdone = awful. Ridley/no setterfield = average setterfield no Ridley Bad.

This year both have been out a considerable amount of time and there’s been depth to cover that and still be capable (not completely undersized)

The percentage tells a pretty simple story. Good stopage team. Bad transition team (although better than last year) and it’s easier to score quickly in transition. So that pushes down the percentage.

If they stay the same as they are they likely win 3/4 games. Move to 8-3-1 at the halfway point then win 4-5 games down the stretch and possibly sneak into finals.

If they can find some confidence and transition competence then their percentage will start rising fast and Top 4 doesn’t seem impossible

edit: doesn’t feel like the teams mix is right on any line yet.

def is closest but needs Ridley/Reid back for everything to work (and Caldwell Rotating through)
 
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Defiantly playing better than how you finished last year, but you looked probably better early last year and fell away. Surely you can see how this doesn't give anyone much confidence that it won't happen again
I've seen a few pundits in the news/radio say the same thing about Essendon, before this season started.

The last few matches of last year, including the two big thrashings, shouldn't be seen as the focal point of the team going forward. We aren't a team relying on a few old players past their prime. We fell away last year due to mounting injuries taking their toll.
With the amount of players about to hit their prime years, we may well be seeing even better results yet to come.
 
Bombers will back themselves in pretty much every game for the rest of the year. The "why bother turning up" hard games (Sydney in Sydney and Port in Adelaide) are behind them.

If they are good enough they will win the majority of these upcoming games and make finals
Every team is prone to bad days at the office. There will be more bad days for Essendon ahead, that’s the reality. But they’re improving, playing a much more rigorous brand and more consistently. Young players now finally developing.

There’s bumps ahead, however the trend is upwards. They could be a decent side, really decent in 2025/6.
 
OK but how are they tracking? What kind of players are they? Who are they like (updside and downside)?

I cant quite get a handle on them.

I can’t get a read on Cox. If he ever puts it all together he will be a star but he might be one of those players who is always going to be talked about as ready to take the next step but never does.

A 200cm winger with his endurance could be a big asset. Not sure he’ll ever be a dominant CHB. Was one of my favourites in that draft.
 
I can’t get a read on Cox. If he ever puts it all together he will be a star but he might be one of those players who is always going to be talked about as ready to take the next step but never does.

A 200cm winger with his endurance could be a big asset. Not sure he’ll ever be a dominant CHB. Was one of my favourites in that draft.
The unifcorn is a hard one to gauge. Of the KPP / talks taken in that draft only Logan McDonald and Jamara have played more games. Cox doesn’t seem to get afforded the “talks take longer to develop” because he has played so much senior football. I would argue that at 21, he is finally sorting his shit together.

Wont ever become a star but if he plays 20 games every year for the next decade, that’s a pass as his skill set is as unique as Jesse Hogan’s goal kicking skip
 
I can’t get a read on Cox. If he ever puts it all together he will be a star but he might be one of those players who is always going to be talked about as ready to take the next step but never does.

A 200cm winger with his endurance could be a big asset. Not sure he’ll ever be a dominant CHB. Was one of my favourites in that draft.

Coming into this season I was pretty low on him and thought he was only ever going to be a 3rd tall defender but he has turned the corner somewhat. Still not sure he’s a super high ceiling player but if he puts it all together he could be a very valuable player
 

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