Roast Essendon in no mans land

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Almost certain to make finals but top 4 might be a stretch now. I think their best outcome is 6th and playing Port/GWS in 7th spot. Gives the best chance to win a final

i actually said this the other day to a mate.

Our best chance to jag a finals win is to finish 5th or 6th and then make GWS or Port travel to Melbourne.
 
Normality has resumed and we will finish in our rightful position. The happy clappers will keep fighting the good fight though
Pencil in another mid table finish, followed by a missing pieces recruitment drive in the trade period.
 
Almost certain to make finals but top 4 might be a stretch now. I think their best outcome is 6th and playing Port/GWS in 7th spot. Gives the best chance to win a final
Not so certain now. Have to win their next 3 as I can't see them beating Sydney and Brisbane in the last 2 weeks
 

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2024: Started 8-1-2. Have now slid to be 10-1-7 and in danger of missing finals again
2023: Started 8-5. Ended up 11-12 and lost their last two matches by 196 points combined
2020: Started 5-2. Ended up 6-1-10 in a shortened season
2019: Had a mid-season purple patch to reach 10-7. Lost the next two matches by 163 points combined and finished 11-11 in 8th spot, then got belted in their final
2015: Started the season 3-2 (and 4-4). Ended up 6-16
2013: Started 13-3. Ended up 14-8 in 7th spot. Avoided the indignity of being belted by Collingwood in the finals because they got booted out due to the drugs saga
2012: Started 8-1 (and reached 11-4). Ended up 11-11 and narrowly missed finals
2011: Started 5-1-2. Ended up 11-11, snuck into 8th spot and lost their final by 63 points by Carlton
2010: Started 6-5. Ended up 7-15 for the season
2009: Started 7-5. Ended up 10-12, snuck into 8th spot and lost their final by 96 points
2007: Started 8-5. Ended up 10-12 and missed finals

There are two seasons in there where they started atrociously and finished strong (including 2021 where they started 2-6 and recovered well enough to finish 8th).

But apparently 'no mans land' means getting everyone's hopes up early in the year before absolutely crapping the bed in July and August?

Is there any theory on why this might be the case? We all mock Dodoro for his habit of winning trade week and adding good ordinary players who aren't stars. Do the stars tend to shine more in the depths of winter, perhaps (ie: sometimes when it is cold and miserable you just need a Cripps or Bontempelli to drag you over the line, rather than depth?). Or something else going on across what is now a 17 year run? Do they just have magnificent pre-seasons and then run out of gas?
 
2024: Started 8-1-2. Have now slid to be 10-1-7 and in danger of missing finals again
2023: Started 8-5. Ended up 11-12 and lost their last two matches by 196 points combined
2020: Started 5-2. Ended up 6-1-10 in a shortened season
2019: Had a mid-season purple patch to reach 10-7. Lost the next two matches by 163 points combined and finished 11-11 in 8th spot, then got belted in their final
2015: Started the season 3-2 (and 4-4). Ended up 6-16
2013: Started 13-3. Ended up 14-8 in 7th spot. Avoided the indignity of being belted by Collingwood in the finals because they got booted out due to the drugs saga
2012: Started 8-1 (and reached 11-4). Ended up 11-11 and narrowly missed finals
2011: Started 5-1-2. Ended up 11-11, snuck into 8th spot and lost their final by 63 points by Carlton
2010: Started 6-5. Ended up 7-15 for the season
2009: Started 7-5. Ended up 10-12, snuck into 8th spot and lost their final by 96 points
2007: Started 8-5. Ended up 10-12 and missed finals

There are two seasons in there where they started atrociously and finished strong (including 2021 where they started 2-6 and recovered well enough to finish 8th).

But apparently 'no mans land' means getting everyone's hopes up early in the year before absolutely crapping the bed in July and August?

Is there any theory on why this might be the case? We all mock Dodoro for his habit of winning trade week and adding good ordinary players who aren't stars. Do the stars tend to shine more in the depths of winter, perhaps (ie: sometimes when it is cold and miserable you just need a Cripps or Bontempelli to drag you over the line, rather than depth?). Or something else going on across what is now a 17 year run? Do they just have magnificent pre-seasons and then run out of gas?
First half of season at Bomberland is always adrenaline, pats on the back and full blown nuffiedom brought on by Herald Sun hype and the most delusional fan base and coterie group in the AFL.

Reality comes in July.
 
First half of season at Bomberland is always adrenaline, pats on the back and full blown nuffiedom brought on by Herald Sun hype and the most delusional fan base and coterie group in the AFL.

Reality comes in July.

That's the roller-coaster for the fans, but it's also real in terms of performance.

My wife is an Essendon supporter and I watched a lot of their games early in the season - outside of the Port match they were genuinely good, right across the park.

I guess % is often a better indicator of quality than ladder performance early in the season as it is less swayed by a few close wins or losses, and Essendon's % was rubbish.

But I still can't see why they so consistently seem to fall away like this. I mean, Carlton have been equally garbage for just as long and I can only see the following seasons where that pattern occurs:
  • 2022 (started 12-6, lost the last 4 matches to miss finals - even that was a bit unusual in playing 2x top 4 teams in the last two rounds and losing by less than a goal after leading with less than 30 seconds to go).
  • 2016 (started 6-5, finished 7-15)
  • Maybe 2012 (started 6-3, finished 11-11, but that team had a bad injury run midseason, and actually finished 4-3 in the last 7 games)
Really only 3x in a 20 year run of sucking where you could say the supporters got their hopes up and then the team fell apart. Essendon now up to 11x in 17 years which is a truly remarkable run - maybe even moreso than their run of not winning a final...
 
That's the roller-coaster for the fans, but it's also real in terms of performance.

My wife is an Essendon supporter and I watched a lot of their games early in the season - outside of the Port match they were genuinely good, right across the park.

I guess % is often a better indicator of quality than ladder performance early in the season as it is less swayed by a few close wins or losses, and Essendon's % was rubbish.

But I still can't see why they so consistently seem to fall away like this. I mean, Carlton have been equally garbage for just as long and I can only see the following seasons where that pattern occurs:
  • 2022 (started 12-6, lost the last 4 matches to miss finals - even that was a bit unusual in playing 2x top 4 teams in the last two rounds and losing by less than a goal after leading with less than 30 seconds to go).
  • 2016 (started 6-5, finished 7-15)
  • Maybe 2012 (started 6-3, finished 11-11, but that team had a bad injury run midseason, and actually finished 4-3 in the last 7 games)
Really only 3x in a 20 year run of sucking where you could say the supporters got their hopes up and then the team fell apart. Essendon now up to 11x in 17 years which is a truly remarkable run - maybe even moreso than their run of not winning a final...
Yeah but next year will be massive.

Top 4 guaranteed
 

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