Preview Essendon vs Adelaide, Docklands, Saturday 12/08/17 @ 7.25 PM

Chicken Dinner?


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Observations

Essendon: Had a scrappy win against arch rival Carlton, dominating the first quarter but let the Blues make it a scrap throughout the middle parts of the game. Captain Dyson Heppell was best on for the Dons, collecting 34 disposals along with 10 marks whilst Joe Daniher and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti kicked 3 goals apiece for the Dons

Adelaide:

Head to Head (last 5)

Essendon 2-3 Adelaide

Form Guide

Essendon: 4W, 1L
Adelaide: 3W, 0L, 1D

Sportsbet odds

Essendon: $2.63
Adelaide: $1.49
Line: 17.5 ($1.90)

Possible sides

Essendon vs Adelaide

B: Ambrose - Hartley - Baguley
F: Cameron - Jenkins - Lynch
HB: McGrath - Hurley - Gleeson
HF: McGovern - Walker - Knight
C: Zaharakis - Myers - Z Merrett
C: Atkins - Sloane - Smith
HF: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Daniher - Langford
HB: MacKay - Talia - Brown
F: Stewart - Hooker - Green
B: Laird - Keath - Kelly
R: Bellchambers - Goddard - Heppell
R: Jacobs - M Crouch - Douglas
I: McKenna - Begley - Kelly - Parish
I: Betts - Lever - Greenwood - B Crouch

Adelaide defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon's forward line has been excellent this year, kicking a goal 28% of the time it enters forward 50. Adelaide has been solid defensively, a little mid-table at 24% goals/inside 50 conceded so far this year. Joe Daniher looms as the main man for Essendon again, the Coleman medal leader will come up against the best stopper in the league, Daniel Talia in what will probably be the most important match up of the game. Cale Hooker has been adequate support for Daniher, if he can get his kicking boots on against the inexperienced Alex Keath, whilst small forward Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will be very important with the injury to Orazio Fantasia against Carlton, which may open the door for teenager Josh Begley who has been kicking goals in the VFL so far this year.

Midfield/rucks battle

Adelaide has been mid range on the inside of the midfield this year, 7th in clearance differential and 8th in contested possession differential, but have been excellent on the spread from a stoppage and in general play. Essendon have been well below average for the contested part of the game but again have been good in terms of spreading from the contest. The main men in the middle for the Crows have been Rory Sloane, Hugh Greenwood, Richard Douglas, Matt and Brad Crouch, all averaging 4 or more clearances a game which is excellent, on the counter the bombers have relied upon Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett and a seemingly cooked Jobe Watson in this regard, but Adelaide's speed on the outside in Rory Atkins and Brodie Smith will be important for the Crows with Essendon's class in the likes of David Zaharakis and Darcy Parish in comparison. Ruck wise, Tom Bellchambers has had a solid season but Sam Jacobs is one of the best rucks in the league.

Adelaide forward line vs Essendon defence

Essendon's defence has been one of the best in the game, conceding a goal 23% of the time it enters defensive 50. Adelaide's forward line is currently the best in the league, kicking a goal 29% of the time it enters the forward 50. Taylor Walker has been the man for the Crows, leading the list in terms of goals + assists in the league, Paddy Ambrose may be the man for the job against the Texan, having quelled his influence after quarter time when the two sides met earlier in the year. Josh Jenkins looms an important man to stop, 3rd in goals from Adelaide and up against possible All Australian Michael Hurley in defence. Eddie Betts will be the main small for the Crows, who has an excellent record against the Dons and Mark Baguley, who is his probable opponent for the night.

X-Factor Player

Hugh Greenwood has been excellent since coming into this Adelaide side midway through the season, his dynamic play and very good kicking skills making a mockery of several players so far this year, and his new deal will please many Crow fans

Key stat

Essendon: Accuracy. The goal kicking the past 2 games has been quite frankly horrendous from the Dons and will need to kick accurately if they're any chance in this game

Adelaide: Clearances. They win this, their forward line is the best in the league and could make it ugly for their opponents

Tip

Adelaide are good. Essendon are average. Adelaide by 33
 
In:
Kelly
McGrath
Langford
Bird
Begley

Out:
Fantasia (inj)
Merrett (if susp)
Colyer
Watson
Howlett
 
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Along with the Bulldogs, Adelaide are the other team that can play our brand better than we can. If we don't try to negate their game I don't believe we will get close. Tag Sloane and we are in with a chance.
 
In: Kelly, McGrath, Bird
Out: Fantasia (inj), Watson (omit), Howlett (omit)

Watson is becoming a liability - needs to go back to VFL find some form and earn his spot back. Howlett stiff.

Bird in to run with Sloane.
 
In: Bird, McGrath, Kelly,
Out: Watson, Fantasia, Howlett

Colyer and Myers lucky - with Fantasia out I'd play Colyer in his role up forward and release McGrath to play in Colyer's usual position.
 
In: Bird, McGrath, Kelly,
Out: Watson, Fantasia, Howlett

Colyer and Myers lucky - with Fantasia out I'd play Colyer in his role up forward and release McGrath to play in Colyer's usual position.

How is Myers lucky? He was our leading clearance player today and was one of our best.
 
Out: Watson (omitted), Fantasia (Hamstring), Merrett (1 week suspension).
In: McGrath, Kelly, Bird.
Would like to see Langford and Begley called upon but i think Colyer and Howlett hold their spots.
 
Our chances in this one starts and ends with tagging Sloane.

**** the "we don't use taggers" crap from Woosha, THIS is the week to do it. Their midfield isn't flash.
 
Woosha's rationale isn't crap at all. In his opinion, it is waste of a midfielder to play someone in a primarily negating role. It means that there is one less offensive player in the midfield. Instead he gets one of the midfielders to play a more run-with type of role.
It makes sense when you think about it.
 

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OUT: Fantasia (hamstring), Colyer (omit), Merrett (if suspended), Watson (omit), Green (omit).
IN: Kelly, McGrath, Begley, Langford, Bird, Laverde.

*Green omitted due to poor disposal once again, and spraying shots at goal instead of setting teammates up.

B: Ambrose - Hartley - Baguley
HB: Gleeson - Hurley - McKenna
C: McGrath - Heppell - Zaharakis
R: Bellchambers - Goddard - Parish
HF: Begley - Daniher - Langford
F: Walla - Hooker - Stewart

I/C: Kelly - Howlett - Bird - Myers
 
Woosha's rationale isn't crap at all. In his opinion, it is waste of a midfielder to play someone in a primarily negating role. It means that there is one less offensive player in the midfield. Instead he gets one of the midfielders to play a more run-with type of role.
It makes sense when you think about it.
Not when you have someone like Sloane running around who is the difference between Adelaide winning the midfield battle and losing the midfield battle. If Sloane dominates, we'll get absolutely smashed to pieces.

We simply must put a tag on Sloane. I'd rather a defensive/negating mid in our side then our one way running midfield the past couple of weeks.

Going all out attack against Adelaide will not end well, the mistake we did in the first half in round 4
 
The main objective for me is to keep our percentage intact. Our midfield must work the other way or we won't be able to keep up with their fire power. We can't engage in a shootout as tempting as it is.

TBC has a huge job. If we get smashed in the midfield like the last 2 weeks again, then we'll be looking at a 60+ point loss. I don't think we're a chance to win this one and I think we need to win it in order to make finals.

OUT: Watson, Fantasia (injured), Colyer
IN: Kelly, McGrath, Bird

Really tempted to bring Myers out for Langford too.
 
Really hope Port Adelaide and Adelaide smash each other up a bit in todays derby - which the usually do...!!!
Hope Zach doesnt get a week also.
At this stage I'd have;-

OUT: Fantasia, Myers, Watson
IN: McGrath, Kelly, Bird

Ambrose Hurley Baguley
Gleeson Hartley McGrath
Zakka Goddard Parish
Tippa Daniher Z.Merrett
Stewart Hoooker Green

Bellcho Heppell Bird

Bench from: Kelly Howlett McKenna Colyer
 
4 weeks ago I'm walking into this game bullish, our best able to beat anyone...

Since then feels like we have gone off the boil, just peaked on our run.

Collingwood showed adelaide are gettable here , are we able to lock down on the required guys ?

This is the elimination final right here, unfortunately a key inj could scupper chances, Raz is huge.

Cant call this yet but happy to go in under dog
 
Reckon we need an experienced team on the park for this game. Don't want a kid that gets 5-7 possessions
and goes missing 80% of the game.

Despite this, Watson's games the last 2 weeks have been abysmal. He is missing targets by 15-30 meters
when kicking and his handballs are nothing like the Watson of old and often missing their marks and
causing costly turnovers. He can hardly lift his legs.

Colyer has been playing OK, but his miskicks under no pressure are starting to hurt the team.

We need guys that can rack up lots of possessions and deliver the ball with precision like an AFL footballer
that is playing for a spot in the finals should be able to do. Stanton has been playing at his best in VFL and
deserves a call up.

Would not drop Howlett. When we were playing like crap in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, he really stood up and despite Murphy racking up lots of possessions, many were under pressure thanks to Howlett.

In: Langford, Stanton, Kelly, McGrath
Out: Fantasia, Watson (rested), Zach (if suspended), Colyer

Would also consider bringing Bird in... would play both Bird and Howlett in heavy midfield tagging roles.

Let the rest of the team take the game on.
 
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