Preview Essendon vs Adelaide, Docklands, Saturday 12/08/17 @ 7.25 PM

[maskmcgee]

Out - Watson, Fantasia, Baugley
In - Bird, Begley, McGrath

 

[Doss]

Without Fantasia and Merrett (if he's suspended), this will be tough to win unfortunately.

 

[Duckworth]

Kelly and McGrath must come in as they are best 22 players.
Fantasia will go out injured.
Z. Merrett likely to get a week (a certainty with the MRP EFC modifier)
Bird has been a good extractor - will be needed if Z.Merrett goes out and with Watson down on form.

In: McGrath, Kelly, Bird
Out: Fantasia, Z. Merrett, Watson

I would have McGrath playing further up the ground. Could be a good opportunity to run with Sloane (will be good for his learning). Howlett as plan B.

 

[kelvin_sheedy]

Ins: McGrath, Mutch, Begley
Outs: Fanta (inj), Merret (susp), Howlett (omit)

I'll give Jobe one more chance as there's zero point in playing any of Bird or Hocking. There's virtually nothing below screaming pick me as I'd like to drop about 3 or 4 more.

 

[Laverde2Smack]

Why would we start tagging someone now ? would be nice but it will not happen. We have "team defense now "

Bird ran with Steven when we played the Saints. Steven still got a bit of the pill but had no impact at all.
I'd like him to do the same against Sloane.

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[Laverde2Smack]

3 clangers.

No way he gets dropped but his kicking was once again very poor.

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[TheGreatBarryB]

Bird ran with Steven when we played the Saints. Steven still got a bit of the pill but had no impact at all.
I'd like him to do the same against Sloane.

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Didnt he run with Ross? Not that it matters as your point is Bird played a run with role and did it well. Ideally replace Jobe but with Zach possibly out we need an 'extractor'.

 

[reincarnated]

Walker - Ambrose
Jenkins - Hurley
McGovern - Hartley

Lynch - Gleeson?

Very hard to match up on their talls and medium.

 

[DallasCrane316]

Having the extra day's break helps. Big time.

Extra day and they have the showdown as well. We can only hope they absolutely belt each other this week.

Just looking through the fixture - I don't think Adelaide have played at Etihad yet this year? Think they may help us?

 

[pazza]

Extra day and they have the showdown as well. We can only hope they absolutely belt each other this week.

Just looking through the fixture - I don't think Adelaide have played at Etihad yet this year? Think they may help us?

Is a quirk of the fixture.

 

[Laverde2Smack]

Didnt he run with Ross? Not that it matters as your point is Bird played a run with role and did it well. Ideally replace Jobe but with Zach possibly out we need an 'extractor'.

It was definitely Steven. It was a match up I was following off the ball. Wasn't a hard tag but he went to him at the stoppages and was always in his area. Made Steven work for his possessions. Was a win for us as Steven normally tears us to shreds.

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[Bigjobss]

Betts going to make us squeal like pigs, with raz and merret out this could get ugly.

 

[pepsi]

3 clangers.

Not to nit pick, but 2 other disposals:
- we were running through the middle, Myers has the ball and handballs it to zaharakis behind him. Forced zaka to change direction and then be put under pressure.
- was on the receiving end of a handball out of a clearance and had time to kick a drop punt, but instead snaps the ball around his shoulder with a kick that went up 40 metres and only progressed 20 metres down the field to a big pack.

He needs to improve. Not to say he can't.

 

[darrenbewick#8]

Observations

Essendon: Had a scrappy win against arch rival Carlton, dominating the first quarter but let the Blues make it a scrap throughout the middle parts of the game. Captain Dyson Heppell was best on for the Dons, collecting 34 disposals along with 10 marks whilst Joe Daniher and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti kicked 3 goals apiece for the Dons

Adelaide:

Head to Head (last 5)

Essendon 2-3 Adelaide

Form Guide

Essendon: 4W, 1L
Adelaide: 3W, 0L, 1D

Sportsbet odds

Essendon: $2.63
Adelaide: $1.49
Line: 17.5 ($1.90)

Possible sides

Essendon vs Adelaide

B: Ambrose - Hartley - Baguley
F: Cameron - Jenkins - Lynch
HB: McGrath - Hurley - Gleeson
HF: McGovern - Walker - Knight
C: Zaharakis - Myers - Z Merrett
C: Atkins - Sloane - Smith
HF: McDonald-Tipungwuti - Daniher - Langford
HB: MacKay - Talia - Brown
F: Stewart - Hooker - Green
B: Laird - Keath - Kelly
R: Bellchambers - Goddard - Heppell
R: Jacobs - M Crouch - Douglas
I: McKenna - Begley - Kelly - Parish
I: Betts - Lever - Greenwood - B Crouch

Adelaide defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon's forward line has been excellent this year, kicking a goal 28% of the time it enters forward 50. Adelaide has been solid defensively, a little mid-table at 24% goals/inside 50 conceded so far this year. Joe Daniher looms as the main man for Essendon again, the Coleman medal leader will come up against the best stopper in the league, Daniel Talia in what will probably be the most important match up of the game. Cale Hooker has been adequate support for Daniher, if he can get his kicking boots on against the inexperienced Alex Keath, whilst small forward Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will be very important with the injury to Orazio Fantasia against Carlton, which may open the door for teenager Josh Begley who has been kicking goals in the VFL so far this year.

Midfield/rucks battle

Adelaide has been mid range on the inside of the midfield this year, 7th in clearance differential and 8th in contested possession differential, but have been excellent on the spread from a stoppage and in general play. Essendon have been well below average for the contested part of the game but again have been good in terms of spreading from the contest. The main men in the middle for the Crows have been Rory Sloane, Hugh Greenwood, Richard Douglas, Matt and Brad Crouch, all averaging 4 or more clearances a game which is excellent, on the counter the bombers have relied upon Dyson Heppell, Zach Merrett and a seemingly cooked Jobe Watson in this regard, but Adelaide's speed on the outside in Rory Atkins and Brodie Smith will be important for the Crows with Essendon's class in the likes of David Zaharakis and Darcy Parish in comparison. Ruck wise, Tom Bellchambers has had a solid season but Sam Jacobs is one of the best rucks in the league.

Adelaide forward line vs Essendon defence

Essendon's defence has been one of the best in the game, conceding a goal 23% of the time it enters defensive 50. Adelaide's forward line is currently the best in the league, kicking a goal 29% of the time it enters the forward 50. Taylor Walker has been the man for the Crows, leading the list in terms of goals + assists in the league, Paddy Ambrose may be the man for the job against the Texan, having quelled his influence after quarter time when the two sides met earlier in the year. Josh Jenkins looms an important man to stop, 3rd in goals from Adelaide and up against possible All Australian Michael Hurley in defence. Eddie Betts will be the main small for the Crows, who has an excellent record against the Dons and Mark Baguley, who is his probable opponent for the night.

X-Factor Player

Hugh Greenwood has been excellent since coming into this Adelaide side midway through the season, his dynamic play and very good kicking skills making a mockery of several players so far this year, and his new deal will please many Crow fans

Key stat

Essendon: Accuracy. The goal kicking the past 2 games has been quite frankly horrendous from the Dons and will need to kick accurately if they're any chance in this game

Adelaide: Clearances. They win this, their forward line is the best in the league and could make it ugly for their opponents

Tip

Adelaide are good. Essendon are average. Adelaide by 33

Wtf 4 changes? No way Jose, your ability to name Langford or Laverde every week is admirable but off the mark last week you named Laverde as the x-factor with no goals for 2 weeks playing as a fwd lol. This week we need hard bodies in the midfield to counter the crows Douglas, sloane, crouch x 2 etc. no way Howlett gets dropped. Watson has been ordinary the last 2 weeks has a chance to be rested, but its more likely Bird, Hocking or Stanton will get a call up instead to boost the midfield and hard tag sloane, that's the template to beat the crows dumb coaching if you ignore this.Kelly, Begley and McGrath are almost the 3 auto ins this week, can't agree with your preview, you cant say bombers have been ordinary sorry, 4 wins last 5 weeks and 1 narrow loss to reigning premiers is NOT ORDINARY, and you forgot about the most important factors , Motivation_- for the Bombers its a MUST WIN game else its lights out on season 2017, and so have ALL the motivation to win and with home ground advantage should win EASILY, for mine...besides other very important factors- Crows will be on an emotional letdown after the showdown and on virtually a 5-6 day break to our 7.5 , Bombers by 24.

 

[Teflon Dons]

Selection will be fascinating. Does Begley debut in a season defining game and does Jobe sit out will be the big ones..

For mine he probably does.
Out: Fantasia, Watson, Howlett In: Begley, Kelly, McGrath

If Merrett is suspended I'd like to see Parish given the nod to step up into his midfield role and set us up.

Out: Merrett, In Langford to cover Parish as a roaming half forward with periods on ball.

 

[Milanista28]

We can beat em, We're stupid like that.

 

[Matthew_Lloyd]

We can beat em, We're stupid like that.

My thoughts exactly. If there ever was a time for Essendon to do an Essendon, it's this match.

And we'll head up to Gold Coast and get our pants pulled down the following week

 

[MiguelM]

Saints win!!

 

[WEEVZ]

Selection will be fascinating. Does Begley debut in a season defining game and does Jobe sit out will be the big ones..

For mine he probably does.
Out: Fantasia, Watson, Howlett In: Begley, Kelly, McGrath

If Merrett is suspended I'd like to see Parish given the nod to step up into his midfield role and set us up.

Out: Merrett, In Langford to cover Parish as a roaming half forward with periods on ball.

Really hoping Begley gets his shot. Will provide a tonne of pressure and toughness to the forwardline and he knows where the big sticks are.

Agree with you on Parish as well, he's played really well when he's gone through the middle. Playing him forward so much takes him out of the game a fair bit.

 

[Zach Package]

Fantasia, Merrett, Howlett out.

Mutch/Langford, Kelly, McGrath in.

Colyer deep forward, McGrath into the middle, Mutch/Langford onto a wing.

VFL bye couldn't have come at a worse time for Begley and Laverde, the only reasons I don't have them in are fitness based.

 

[WindyHillZephyr]

Just a thought, how do you reckon Jobe would go as a tagger on Sloane?

 

[TheGreatBarryB]

Just a thought, how do you reckon Jobe would go as a tagger on Sloane?

You're taking the piss

 

[Teflon Dons]

Really hoping Begley gets his shot. Will provide a tonne of pressure and toughness to the forwardline and he knows where the big sticks are.

Agree with you on Parish as well, he's played really well when he's gone through the middle. Playing him forward so much takes him out of the game a fair bit.

Yeah time to see what Begley's like at the level. Wish it was to rest Walla but this will give him a good run at it if he's called up and takes his chance.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Only if we played the Crows in the last round could.

 

[WindyHillZephyr]

You're taking the piss

I know its a weird call. but the guy cant kick for shit anymore and if he's gonna play he may like the possibility to contribute.