February - Daily Punt

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Blue Diamond - I think the colts Prelude was the far stronger affair and is probably going to be the form race of the 2yo season.. While Earthquake ran same time and won effortlessly, it was a pretty shallow race.

Rubick's win was outstanding - pressured early and then on straightening was set to be run down but held the swoopers at bay. Has to contend with the additional 100m and the tough run may have flattened it. Was also a very hot day that day.

The two run ons in the colts prelude - Chivalry and Nostradamus are the dangers. I backed Nostradamus before it debuted to win the Diamond (ironically the same price as what it looks like going round on Saturday). Will stick with it and watch.


Oakleigh Plate - hard race as always but perhaps Lankan Rupee is simply better than these. Knoydart's win at Mornington had to be seen to be believed but get feeling it is stepping up in grade. Reckon these two have race at mercy.

Futurity - Bullpoint is the one. I think Moment of Change is a somewhat suspect favourite. Had an absolutely charmed run but only fell in the other week. Bullpoint is fit on pacer that won't let it get away with the easy sectionals. I like it at about $3

Foreteller also may be the knockout horse to Fiorente earlier in the day. Seems to bob up and win a good WFA race at carnivals over the last few years. Prepared to take at $6 or better

Good luck
 

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I have to agree regarding Fiorente, I think he is a great bet at $2.30, just better than them. His career starts in Australia are a 2nd in the Melb Cup, a slashing 3rd in the All Aged, solid in the Memsie, wins the Feehan from a horrible position savaging the line, should have won the Turnball but was forced back from the barrier, outstanding on pace in the Cox Plate then wins the Melb Cup, hard to fault really.

Love the way he lowers and attacks the line, should be no worse then midfield and I think he just wins it.
 
Moonee Valley:

Race 6 - Miss Promiscuity - 3.7 Units. Talented little filly, blinkers have really switched her on an think she will be too good, running genuine Group 3 level figures last two starts, was on her at Flemington last time and hoping tonight is just as easy to watch.

Caulfield:

Race 5 - Fiorente - 3.5 Units - I see $2.50 is available now with Sportsbet which seem luxury, like him for the reasons previously discussed, $2.50 suggest he wins this race 4 times out of 10, I think its more like 5-6 times out of 10 or $1.70-$2.0.

Race 6 - Bull Point - 2.7 Units - I actually have Bull Point, MOC, Sizzling and Pinwheel all rating within .5 lengths of each other at their last starts, Bull Point was very soft in he way he did it and is the horse on the upward spiral, took the early odds available. Should stalk MOC and prove hard to hold out. MOC improved last time but still 4 lengths off his best, might improve again but just don't think he is going that well, would want a G3 track also.

Race 7 - Rubick - 2.7 Units - I feel Earthquake has the measure of all the colts other than Rubick, she has a similar pattern to the likes of Chivalry and Jabali but a superior sprint, with even luck she beats them but I like Rubick for the following reasons.

Break down of both their career starts to date. First section is gates to 800M mark, then individual 200 splits from there in terms of lengths above or below benchmark.

Rubick on debut:

First Sec: +2.6
8-600M: +0.48
6-400M: +1.23
4-200M:+0.17
2-Post: +0.08

= +4.02 lengths on benchmark (that's with 2 lengths withheld) carrying + 11kgs on the WFA scale.

Earthquake on debut:

First Sec: -0.46
8-600M: -1.21
6-400M: -1.35
4-200M:+1.36
2-Post: +2.86

= +1.02 lengths on benchmark (2 lengths withheld) carrying + 11 lengths on the WFA scale.

Both outstanding debuts, any 2yo capable of running inside benchmark standard is a serious horse.

Rubick's Prelude:

First Sec: +3.84
8-600M: +1.5
6-400M: -1.28
4-200M:-1.39
2-Post: -4.4

= -4.2 legnths on benchmark carrying + 9.5kgs on WFA. Rubick would have been leading Lankan Rupee who won over 1100M on the same day by 3 lengths at the 600M, that is too fast for the older horse's let alone a 2yo, entitled to fall in a hole but held those who did little in the run comfortably on the line. Visually not all that impressive but his win was simply outstanding.

Earthquake's Prelude:

First Sec: -0.36
8-600M: -1.0
6-400M: -2.48
4-200M: -1.19
2-Post: +0.8

= -4.2 lengths on benchmark carrying +11.5kgs on benchmark. A visually stunning performance but the sectionals suggest her ran was over hyped a touch as she was entitled to do as she did.

What we have learnt is that they are both exceptional 2yo's, Rubick has shown the ability to produce sustained speed as he did on debut running positive splits throughout, he has also shown us the ability to do it the hard way, forced to race at a ridiculous early tempo yet still good enough to win.

Earthquake has demonstrated the ability to run strong sectionals late but has done so in small fields on very slow tempos running negative splits in her early sections.

I'm expecting the Diamond to be run 2-3 lengths slower in the early sections than the colts Prelude was, the difference here for Rubick is that drawing barrier 10 means he will not have to work to hold his spot on the rail, they do not want to lead so he can come across without having to work and sit outside or behind the speed, if they want to run along he doesn't have to go with them, he can stalk instead of being stalked and forced to work. We saw what he did on debut when sitting outside a more generous tempo, sustained speed and I see the race setting up perfectly for him here, gets his chance to win if good enough, I think he is. I don't see the 1200M as an issue for him.

Earthquake has been given the opportunity to race forward on slow speeds in her 2 starts to date, she will simply not get it her own way here, she hasn't demonstrated the early speed to be able to go forward in this race, if they want to go forward she is going to be forced to race out of her comfort zone and it will almost certainly kill her sprint, she also risks getting posted wide on the speed. She is highly likely to be forced back and wide in the run, something she has not had to deal with yet, how is she going to be able to handle it? We don't know but makes it tough for a 2yo filly.

In my opinion they are both outstanding 2yo's but with Rubick getting the race run to suit him Earthquake will need to be every bit a superstar to get past him late, it might be an impossible task.

If Rubick had drawn inside again I would have concerns as he would likely be forced to do similar to what he did in the Prelude, even if it is a more generous tempo doing the work early to hold his position would make him more vulnerable late.

Happy to be backing the colt.

Race 8 - Knoydart - 1.8 Units. Lankan Rupee - 1 Unit. Minaj - 0.35 Units. Karacatis - 0.35 Units. Will be backing all on Betfair.

Randwick:

Race 7 - Appearance - 2.7 Units. She has a tendency to run below her best 2nd up but she has had excuses 2nd up in the past and I feel she might be a better mare now as mature 5yo (like Red Tracer). On her first run its hard to see those behind beating her.

Good Luck.
 
Fiorente is 2.50 at sportsbet with their "take us on" promotion. So they've decided to lay it. They got it wong last week on hucklebuck and I think they have it wrong again. I'm happy to have my equal biggest bet of 2014 on it of 2k @2.50 and make it the BB of the day. Fitness is the only concern. He's simply better than these, so unless sportsbet know something we don't then they're going to get hurt again.
 
Substance said:
Fiorente is 2.50 at sportsbet with their "take us on" promotion. So they've decided to lay it. They got it wong last week on hucklebuck and I think they have it wrong again. I'm happy to have my equal biggest bet of 2014 on it of 2k @2.50 and make it the BB of the day. Fitness is the only concern. He's simply better than these, so unless sportsbet know something we don't then they're going to get hurt again.
Click to expand...

I happen to know one of the part owners of Fiorente very well, he isn't the most knowledgeable when it comes to horses but I can assure you that there are no issues with him going into this, ready to go albeit with the with the Sydney Autumn riches his main aim.

Sportsbet know that he will be a popular bet tomorrow much like Hucklebuck last week, they will cop a few hits with the promotion but when one goes under they will make it all back.
 
Mooney Valley

Race 2 - First Bloom
Race 6 - Miss Promiscuity

Will post Canterbury tips later.
 
got a multi going for 2moro
lankan rupee win - moment of change win - guelph win - canny ballard place and boban win i did it in the way that 3 have to win out of the 5 to make money not sure what the bet type costs but it gives me 20 x 3 leg multies
 

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PureFooty said:
$ valley
First Bloom, Counted, Miss promiscuity
Canterbury
Malice, Stolen Kisses
Click to expand...


You're going about as well as I did tonight.

So much for building a bank.

Feeding off scraps tomorrow :p
 
Miss Promiscuity was a big run, you will make your money back on her at some point but hard not to have a bitter taste in the mouth when you get rolled in the last 15M by a $50 shot.
 
A couple of all ups tomorrow ...

Caulfield

Not Listenin'tome/Marianne/Fiorente

Randwick

Our Desert Warrior/Sweet Idea/Appearance
 
Last edited:
Caulfield
Race 2#4 - Cruden Bay
Race 3#5 - Patricia Dawn
Race 5#4 - Foreteller
Race 6#7 - Lidari
Race 7#4 - Chivalry
Race 8#2 - Spirit of Boom

Morphettville Parks
Race 1#1 - Bobcat
Race 5#11 - Sunset Rock
Race 8#13 - Savvy Smokin' Royal RandwickRace 12 - Khrysler
 

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February - Daily Punt

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