Finalist to Bottom 4

[D_One]

Every year since 1995 at least one finalist from the previous year has dropped to the bottom 4.

1995 - Hawthorn from 7 to 15
1996 - Bulldogs from 7 to 15
1997 - Essendon from 4 to 14
1997 - Hawthorn from 8 to 15
1998 - Brisbane Lions from 8 to 16
1999 - Adelaide from 1 to 13 (the biggest single season drop ever)
1999 - Melbourne from 4 to 14
2000 - West Coast from 5 to 13
2000 - Port Adelaide from 7 to 14
2001 - Nth Melb from 4 to 13
2002 - Richmond from 3 to 14
2002 - Carlton from 6 to 16
2003 - Melbourne from 6 to 14
2004 - Collingwood from 2 to 13
2005 - Essendon from 6 to 13
2006 - Nth Melb from 7 to 14
2007 - Bulldogs from 6 to 13
2007 - Melbourne from 5 to 14
2008 - Port Adelaide from 2 to 13
2008 - West Coast from 6 to 15

Although there are no guarantees that this will happen next year but if it does, who do you think is the most likely to do it?

Here’s your choices Hawthorn, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Sydney, Collingwood, Adelaide, North Melbourne.

I’m going for Sydney, who were terrible in the last half of this year.

 

[rizzo]

Just having a quick browse, the team that finished 6th or 7th generally drop. So probability would say them.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

So many wierd stats like this.

Would obviously have to be out of the 5th to 8th sides, with Sydney being most likely (especially if Okeefe leaves via the pre-season draft).

 

[Big Member]

For all their weaknesses and inability to win crucial finals (or a premiership), Malthouse and Laidley are the kind of coaches that will prevent Collingwood and North from sliding that far despite the fact I think they have the weakest lists of this year's 8.

The negative supporter in me says St.Kilda because we over-achieved this year, the bottom half of our best 22 is very ordinary and we have a real lack of kids coming through worth getting excited about. Only improvement I see is from Dal returning to form, Kosi living up to the hype and Maguire playing some games. More downside than upside and I think we need to bottom out again to give Riewoldt, Fisher and Goddard another shot before they're over the hill.

Another prime candidate would be Adelaide based on their list and aging veterans, but I think their defence and game plan are too strong to fall that far.

 

[Top_4_Tiger]

Alternatively, which bottom 8 club will make the top 4?

 

[adelaide_40]

TBH I reckon Adelaide are a good chance of falling this year if not once again it will be our defence that keeps us in.

 

[adelaide_40]

Alternatively, which bottom 8 club will make the top 4?

I dont think any team from bottom 8 will make top 4 but a few will be pushing for finals.

 

[Zvim]

I think we have the players to do well, a lot depends on injuries and how many of the younger players can take the next step in 09.

I would be dubious on those sides that made the 8 on the back of a very soft draw, if they get a harder draw then they will find it a lot harder. Our 05 draw was fairly easy, our 06 draw was brutal.

 

[Thrawn]

2002 - Carlton from 6 to 16

Actually, we finished 5th in 2001.

 

[Eagle_Bay]

Eagles finished 3rd last year.

Next year, maybe Sydney?

 

[Burzum]

Sydney.

 

[RememberMe]

Geelong will choke it up big time and drop off.

 

[DeZi]

Every year since 1995 at least one non-finalist from the previous year has dropped to the bottom 4.

...

 

[Mike_blues]

...

thought that myself

 

[warney7]

...

I'm sure saying 'top 8 side' would have done the job

 

[RUNVS]

I’m going for Sydney, who were terrible in the last half of this year.

Sydney were terrible because guys like

Adam Goodes
Craig Bolton
Tadhg Kennelly
Michael O'Loughlin
Henry Playfair
Luke Ablett

were all either playing injured or not playing at all due to injury.

 

[SM]

Sydney were terrible because guys like

Adam Goodes
Craig Bolton
Tadhg Kennelly
Michael O'Loughlin
Henry Playfair
Luke Ablett

were all either playing injured or not playing at all due to injury.

+ O'Keefe + McVeigh + Malceski.

O'Keefe and McVeigh had ankle problems from some time I think. Malceski with his knee surgery and calf complaints.

If those guys are better next year, and we actually improve, as any team with a bunch of experienced second or third year players should do, I see no reason why a push for the top 4 is uncalled for.

Swans only missed the top 4 this year because the Crows somehow beat the Doggies and the Saints smashed the uncaring Bombers.

 

[Johnson#26]

Adelaide, I'd say, at a guess, but who knows for sure with the competition these days.

 

[bomberbill22]

can see the Swans going down in a rush

 

[warney7]

To finish bottom 4 is a fair sort of fall.

Not the sort of fall I can see Sydney or Adelaide making in 2009.

I know it's expected every year but I'm expecting Roos to finish bottom 4.

 

[D_One]

Actually, we finished 5th in 2001.

5th at the end of the minor round and 6th at the end of the finals.

http://www.users.bigpond.com/tuffies/honour_roll.html

and page 800 of the AFL Record Season Guide 2008.

But it doesn't matter on two counts as you were finalist to bottom 4 regardless

 

[kira]

Just having a quick browse, the team that finished 6th or 7th generally drop. So probability would say them.

correction... sydney finished 5th this season

so your logic would indicate collingwood or adelaide

 

[DeZi]

correction... sydney finished 5th this season

so your logic would indicate collingwood or adelaide

Correction ... Collingwood finished 6th this season (higher percentage then Adelaide)

7th - Adelaide
8th - North Melbourne

 

[WN123]

I agree with Sydney. I think generally the teams that have had the big falls have been up for a while - then suddenly ageing players a toll. Sydney has been in the finals the longest of any of these teams. (Since 2003) They have quite a few older players.

 

[Father Jack]

Eagles finished 3rd last year.

Next year, maybe Sydney?

Not after the finals we didn't.