Preview Finals Week 1 - Carlton v Sydney Swans - A Preview Driven By AI

[Nuggetz]

I suppose may as well take the risk.

Can't put players who are returning from injury as a sub imo. I don't mind if Juzzy isn't picked & we continue with Stephens

 

[swanssince2002]

Knowing us we will start JMac and Papley but if they are clearly not playing 100% during the game one of them will be subbed for Stephens.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Knowing us we will start JMac and Papley but if they are clearly not playing 100% during the game one of them will be subbed for Stephens.

You trust our coach to use the sub?

 

[caesar88]

Agree he's taken a leap this season. But finals are another step up. His performance against Melbourne doesn't fill me with confidence that he's capable of having an impact, but I'd gladly be proven wrong.

Could you not say the same about half the team? I thought there were plenty of players who didn't have much of an impact against Melbourne and even the week before.

 

[bedford]

Get over it , we kick straight , we win probably and they are a very good team

 

[caesar88]

Get over it , we kick straight , we win probably and they are a very good team

Me looking for who the heck this comment is meant for

 

[MF]

Why are we having a tall as a sub

Because it's a better option than a Corey Warner or Matt Roberts as sub.

Better off having cover in an emergency than having an "impact" sub that averages a touch a quarter.

If we had more midfield depth we'd probably have a mid as sub.

 

[bedford]

Me looking for who the heck this comment is meant for

No idea i was shindlers

 

[The King!]

No ides i was shindlers

Adam?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Because it's a better option than a Corey Warner or Matt Roberts as sub.

Better off having cover in an emergency than having an "impact" sub that averages a touch a quarter.

If we had more midfield depth we'd probably have a mid as sub.

No it’s not. You cover those in the game. Impact subs make a difference much rather Roberts as the sub

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

No it’s not. You cover those in the game. Impact subs make a difference much rather Roberts as the sub

Aye.

Blues mids are slow and big.

Having a first hands on ball type like Roberts as Sub, could be decisive. If fit, JMac is a speedy adaptable option

Out: Clarke, Francis (sub)

In: Papley

Emergency: Roberts, McInerney, Francis, Stretch

 

[Borgan]

Walking to the stadium 10 mins before the opening bounce of the Melbourne game we actually saw Papley running to the ground from the training facility, 100% he will play and be fit

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Aye.

Blues mids are slow and big.

Having a first hands on ball type like Roberts as Sub, could be decisive. If fit, JMac is a speedy adaptable option

Out: Clarke, Francis (sub)

In: Papley

Emergency: Roberts, McInerney, Francis, Stretch

Yep either JMac or Roberts as the sub I’d leave stephens in. We need the run especially on the MCG. Clarke and Francis out

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Everyone is dumping Clamps.

But what if Horse wants to shut-down Saad?

Carlton isn’t endowed with midfield pace - Saad’s run off half back is pretty important.

Papley is an obvious “in”, but could it be for Armatey? Pressure means a lot in finals - and Armatey just doesn’t seem to have fitness on his side.

I reckon there might be a few surprised posters come team selection.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Everyone is dumping Clamps.

But what if Horse wants to shut-down Saad?

Carlton isn’t endowed with midfield pace - Saad’s run off half back is pretty important.

Papley is an obvious “in”, but could it be for Armatey? Pressure means a lot in finals - and Armatey just doesn’t seem to have fitness on his side.

I reckon there might be a few surprised posters come team selection.

The Wicker Man is the natural small pressure forward for Saad.

We need to be both tough and creative on the fwd line. Wicks is miles ahead of Clamps or Faulty Brake Lining as I see him.

Last week Clarkey had 9 HBs and a kick iirc plus one tackle.

Dammit, we have to make the most of our chances and kick goals.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

I was bored during the pre-finals bye and was wondering what our scoring looked like from a statistical perspective and figured I'd post it here in case others had any insights and hopefully to generate some discussion.

The things I've looked at was the performance of our top 10 goal scorers over the course of the season, and then for rounds 18-24 (which represents our current form, when we went on our run, and played without Buddy).

I then looked at games where we scored fewer than 16 goals (a) to remove the WC game which would impact overall results, and (b) look at games that will be more representative of finals-like games.

I then also looked at what proportion of our goals are scored by our top 10 goal kickers and top 5 goal kickers to get an idea of the spread and the contribution of others to our total goals.

I also did a comparison removing Buddy's goals given he would have been our 3rd highest goal scorer (in terms of average goals per game) and given he'll play no further part this season, removing him from the totals give some idea as to how much the top 10 / top 5 goal scorers contribute each game.

Things I've highlighted in the table:
1. Individual game cells (red=0 goals, light green=1 goal, darker green=2+goals)
2. Green highlights - show player who's goal average has increased in rounds 18-24 (compared to their season average)
3. Blue highlights - show player who's goal average increased in games where we've scored fewer than 16 goals
4. Red highlights - show player who's goal average decreased significantly in games where we've scored fewer than 16 goals
5. Yellow highlights - for top 10 players - games where the top 10 have scored 75% or more of our goals
6. Yellow highlights - for top 5 players - games where the top 10 have scored 50% or more of our goals

 

[GoTheSwannies]

And looking at games where we've scored 13 or fewer goals. So where our goals come from when goals are harder to come by. The sample size is getting smaller (13 games), so gets a little less reliable, but still worthwhile looking at.
Note, McLean drops from 1 goal to 0.6, but he spent a lot of those games in the ruck.

 

[MF]

No it’s not. You cover those in the game. Impact subs make a difference much rather Roberts as the sub

He averages 6 touches a game. Which regular player are you subbing off for him to have a bigger impact than?

It's not easy for any player to immediately come on and adjust to the tempo of a game thats been going for 3 quarters, let alone a player who barely has any senior experience

 

[RilesMacca]

IMO Cripps is their point of difference for this game. Alot will say Curnow but they win games off stoppage dominance and if we don't stop him I cant see us winning. Also I trust Tom to do a good job on Curnow. Hes been the best key back in the comp the last 5 weeks.

Wonder if Heeney will negate Cripps like last time out, doubt he would because we need him forward - have to compete in the air against Carltons defence. Weitering and Kemp are good in the air.

 

[Punts]

Have a feeling Cripps will go beast mode in his first final

Thing is if Charlie gets a hold of Mccartin we are gone as we have no one else. Normally rampe might step across but he would take him to the cleaners these days

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

Pre finals bye is horrendous, sucks the life out of the finals. Happy for a pre GF bye to allow best teams to recover, and also any concussions can recover and play, but this is ridiculous.

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

Have a feeling Cripps will go beast mode in his first final

Thing is if Charlie gets a hold of Mccartin we are gone as we have no one else. Normally rampe might step across but he would take him to the cleaners these days

I think we need Melican in to play on McKay. Too tall for Rampe and Fox and McCartin goes to Curnow to start with.

 

[ErrolisGoldun]

I feel this game will be a real 50/50, the noise and crowd will fuel the Blues which will negate our recent finals experience.

If we can play 4 quarters of footy I feel that we will win, however, I am not convinced we can.

Mills needs to go to Cripps and wear him like a glove for us to have a chance. McCartin likewise with Curnow.

I am expecting a low scoring slog of a final and we really need Heeney to stand up in the forward line, he is our main man there now (especially with Paps coming back from injury).

An extra week off will help Hickey recover his body and go again which hopefully helps our stoppage work. Parker, Rowy, Warner and Gulden will need to be at their best for us to get up.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

He averages 6 touches a game. Which regular player are you subbing off for him to have a bigger impact than?

It's not easy for any player to immediately come on and adjust to the tempo of a game thats been going for 3 quarters, let alone a player who barely has any senior experience

Whoever isn’t having an impact as a tall sub them off for a runner. It’s not that hard really, JMac as sub would be the way I’d go though.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Pre finals bye is horrendous, sucks the life out of the finals. Happy for a pre GF bye to allow best teams to recover, and also any concussions can recover and play, but this is ridiculous.

We need it this year half our side was running on reserves against Melbourne. A rest would do them good