Opinion First Choice Ruck - Pitto vs TDK

[Blue and Silver]

I think people are underrating Pitt by quite a bit.

Hit out numbers are really good even when you ignore the GC game AND he has good clearance numbers.

TDK is very flashy, but Pitt delivers more atm

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[Justnetime]

I think people are underrating Pitt by quite a bit.

Hit out numbers are really good even when you ignore the GC game AND he has good clearance numbers.

TDK is very flashy, but Pitt delivers more atm

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I think that is the key thing. He can win so many more hitouts Which is the key stat. Offsetting that a lot is he is dumb and taps it clean to the opposition as much as our players and he doesn’t understand about giving away free kicks in dangerous positions. Will put in a head high tackle anywhere including their fwd 50 which just irritates.

But still, TDK hitouts numbers are appalling. Please TDK, thicken out a bit this off-season and start winning some.

 

[Sector 7G]

Or how about the 3rd possibility

Highlights | Alex Mirkov

Carlton welcomed Alex Mirkov in the NAB AFL Mid-Season Rookie Draft: a 210-centimetre ruckman from its Reserves side.

www.carltonfc.com.au

Mirkov's ability to direct taps to his mids advantage is tantalising. Hope he can lift his output around the ground. We really didn't get to see him as a listed player.

 

[CJMB]

Or how about the 3rd possibility

Highlights | Alex Mirkov

Carlton welcomed Alex Mirkov in the NAB AFL Mid-Season Rookie Draft: a 210-centimetre ruckman from its Reserves side.

www.carltonfc.com.au

Mirkov's ability to direct taps to his mids advantage is tantalising. Hope he can lift his output around the ground. We really didn't get to see him as a listed player.

Probably have to wait until he's AFL fit, but that could be sooner rather than later. Really looking forward to tracking his progress though, those taps seem great, plus if he gets to play AFL I'm sure the commentators will love being able to mention his volleyball background...

 

[Justnetime]

Why?
Bulldogs were one of the best teams most of the year and just came runners up in the grand final. They were 3rd last for hitouts this year. Melbourne were first. Dogs averaged 16 hitouts less than the Dees and both made it to the last game. In 2020 they were dead last for hitouts, averaging half of what top placed Collingwood got.

Personally, I'd run with TDK as the main ruck. Get Jones to chop out with some contests in defensive 50 (or Young if he earns a spot) and Harry to do half a dozen or so in forward 50. When TDK is on the bench, SOS can take the centre bounces.
They only need to take around 5-6 contests each.

I feel better for you pointing that out.

Id only counter that the Bulldogs would be also trying to improve in their ruck output. First, it was why they got Martin to try and support English. They also thought like us with TDK that English would progress but in his case he didn’t. Well documented that it was one of their weaknesses.

They also had their very specific midfield strength offsetting a weak ruck. Bontempelli, Dunkly, Libby, treloar, Macrae are like a famous 5. Our midfield setup isn’t even close to support a weak ruck.

obv I’m hoping Cripps turns it around and Cerra joins Walsh For a much better 2022.

 

[Bletch]

Numbers don't tell the whole story, but they're worth looking at. 2021 ruck stats (ave. per game)

Matches played: Pitto 13, TDK 13
Hit Outs: Pitto 8th in comp, TDK 31st
HO's to Adv: Pitto 6th, TDK 30th
% of HO's won: Pitto 23rd, TDK 47th (Levi 41st)
% of HO's won that were to Adv: Pitto 22nd, TDK 56th (incidentally, JSOS is 4th on this list!! When he won a HO, generally it went our way)
Ruck Contests: Pitto 4th (68), TDK 29th (27)
Disposals (specialist ruckmen only): Pitto 24th, TDK 36th
Marks (specialist ruckmen only): TDK 22nd (3.1), Pitto 36th (2.0)
Contested Marks (specialist ruckmen only): TDK 23rd, Pitto 41st
Goals (specialist ruckmen only): TDK 17th, Pitto 25th

What's this say?
TDK isn't getting to enough contests - this will develop as he matures. When he does, he's not winning them, and when he wins them, they're not going to advantage.
Pitto is doing reasonably well in the ruck contests. He's high on total hitouts and hitouts to advantage - but... this is mostly due to him making a high number of contests. He's still winning less that 50% of the contests, and only about a third of the contests that he wins go to advantage.
Both are well down the list on disposals, marks and contested marks. And this is a big issue if we're wanting them to play in the same side. We can't have two ruckmen in a side that are only taking 5 marks between them.

Out of 84 players who averaged more than 1 hitout per match in 2021, JSOS was 81st in % of Hit Outs won. He's not a viable 2nd ruck option.

 

[JustaBattler]

The #1 enemy of any statistical analysis is autocorrelation - how any player performs depends as much as how every other player is performing around them in a team game. If our on ballers can't figure out where Pittonet is going to tap to given whoever he is up against ( ie take into account the fact that Pitto has a relatively poor leap on him - that is as much on them as Pittonet.

One thing I've noticed about TDK is that he actually has a footy brain - Pittonet is a tad short of the smarts. TDK may actually have the highest leap in the competition - we have seen this work to advantage against blokes like Nic Nat - against typical barging type rucks TDK will be at disadvantage till he fills out.

Would be great if TDK was a genuine decent kick for goal- his marking is quite good for a tall forward- but his posiitoning sense is very much 'resting ruckman' as far as forward play goes. Still he is very raw and young - good coaching will see him improve quickly I reckon. Pittonet? sub par in pretty much every skill ther eis to talk about based on exposed form - and very litle awareness of where heis 'tocuhes'will go in general ball ups- too often they go straight to opposiiton mid.

People suggesting SOJ plays as a part time ruck - clearly dont wish him to have a long career.

 

[Cripps 'n' Blue Bloods]

I feel better for you pointing that out.

Id only counter that the Bulldogs would be also trying to improve in their ruck output. First, it was why they got Martin to try and support English. They also thought like us with TDK that English would progress but in his case he didn’t. Well documented that it was one of their weaknesses.

They also had their very specific midfield strength offsetting a weak ruck. Bontempelli, Dunkly, Libby, treloar, Macrae are like a famous 5. Our midfield setup isn’t even close to support a weak ruck.

obv I’m hoping Cripps turns it around and Cerra joins Walsh For a much better 2022.

Of course you should always look to improve areas of weakness. No question there.
I guess my main point is that, these days, winning ruck contests isn't as important as it used to be. It's equally important how the team is set up to defend, how the players follow up once the ball is live and halving the contest.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Still happy to go with Pittonet as our main ruck guy right now, whilst TDK continues to build up his tank and physique as a forward.

Maybe I am basing this position after being depressed how physically wrecked Matty Kreuzer became being a full time ruckman from such a young age.

He didn't have a terrific 2021, but Pittonet still has a lot to offer our team, and I feel like he gets too much unfair criticism from some in these parts.

 

[Love the Drake]

Good topic.

Contrasting players. Big brute vs athletic youngster.

Both have strengths and weaknesses.

Both nowhere near top of their field.

TDK needs to put on bulk and take more marks.

Pitto needs to play smarter and take more marks.

I don’t think we have an option but to play both.

They will have to work on their forward craft over the off season as that’s where they will spend a fair bit of time when not rucking.

Not our strongest area..

 

[BigBreakfast]

Is Pitto still a bollard? #thylacine60

 

[CJMB]

Numbers don't tell the whole story, but they're worth looking at. 2021 ruck stats (ave. per game)

Matches played: Pitto 13, TDK 13
Hit Outs: Pitto 8th in comp, TDK 31st
HO's to Adv: Pitto 6th, TDK 30th
% of HO's won: Pitto 23rd, TDK 47th (Levi 41st)
% of HO's won that were to Adv: Pitto 22nd, TDK 56th (incidentally, JSOS is 4th on this list!! When he won a HO, generally it went our way)
Ruck Contests: Pitto 4th (68), TDK 29th (27)
Disposals (specialist ruckmen only): Pitto 24th, TDK 36th
Marks (specialist ruckmen only): TDK 22nd (3.1), Pitto 36th (2.0)
Contested Marks (specialist ruckmen only): TDK 23rd, Pitto 41st
Goals (specialist ruckmen only): TDK 17th, Pitto 25th

What's this say?
TDK isn't getting to enough contests - this will develop as he matures. When he does, he's not winning them, and when he wins them, they're not going to advantage.
Pitto is doing reasonably well in the ruck contests. He's high on total hitouts and hitouts to advantage - but... this is mostly due to him making a high number of contests. He's still winning less that 50% of the contests, and only about a third of the contests that he wins go to advantage.
Both are well down the list on disposals, marks and contested marks. And this is a big issue if we're wanting them to play in the same side. We can't have two ruckmen in a side that are only taking 5 marks between them.

Out of 84 players who averaged more than 1 hitout per match in 2021, JSOS was 81st in % of Hit Outs won. He's not a viable 2nd ruck option.

View attachment 1262848

I haven't got access to all that HO-adv stats, but I can say the raw numbers you've got are a bit skewed.

Pitto played rounds 1-14 and TDK was in the team from 10-23, so there's a 4 game patch (10, 11, 12 & 14) where they overlapped.

TDK also had a game where he was out early, in round 20 he played 19% TOG for 5 hitouts and it looked like he'd torn a pec or something significant. He also had the R23 game where he had the horrible fall and was concussed, but he'd got to 78% TOG at that point so it's in the ballpark of his usual game.

So if you deduct rounds 10, 11, 12, 14 & 20 (with Pitto as #1 or injured early) then TDK's overall hitouts number goes up by about 32% from 16.8 to 22.3, while his TOG only increased from 75% to 80%.

I'm not sure what his HO>Adv stats would look like in the same period, but I imagine they'd jump up a similar amount.

I couldn’t be bothered comparing disposals/marks/etc, just looked at hitouts.

 

[BigBreakfast]

TDK every day that he is fit. Every day.

 

[Gethelred]

Out of 84 players who averaged more than 1 hitout per match in 2021, JSOS was 81st in % of Hit Outs won. He's not a viable 2nd ruck option.

I suppose the question becomes, how do you measure a ruckman? Do you measure them using marks, HO win%, HO to advantage and HO to adv. %? Do you measure them with clearance participation (IE, the same kind of thing as a goal assist/score assist, but within a clearance context)?

Will wear my colours on my shirt: I'm a huge advocate of Jack as a second ruck. I think it makes the most of his versatility without causing excessive problems, provided he isn't up against a player whose height/HO dominance translates to an overwhelming clearance dominance. It gives another mobile big body once the ball hits earth, and it allows us to position defensively whilst still having offensive outlets, at the cost of conceding the tap.

I don't think they'll go for it, but it'll be an opportunity missed, IMO.

 

[Bletch]

I suppose the question becomes, how do you measure a ruckman? Do you measure them using marks, HO win%, HO to advantage and HO to adv. %? Do you measure them with clearance participation (IE, the same kind of thing as a goal assist/score assist, but within a clearance context)?

Will wear my colours on my shirt: I'm a huge advocate of Jack as a second ruck. I think it makes the most of his versatility without causing excessive problems, provided he isn't up against a player whose height/HO dominance translates to an overwhelming clearance dominance. It gives another mobile big body once the ball hits earth, and it allows us to position defensively whilst still having offensive outlets, at the cost of conceding the tap.

I don't think they'll go for it, but it'll be an opportunity missed, IMO.

Jack did a great job when we needed him most. Competed above his level. He's got the right stuff.

We'll get away with it against some sides. But, as a strategy, it's a losing one. We'll get absolutely smashed on a regular basis if we go in with JSOS as our regular 2nd ruck. If you doubt me, go have another look at the Norf match. Goldy wore out TDK in the first half, then did what he liked in the second. Poor JSOS then ended up against big Xerri and at times Goldy too, spent more time on the ball than he should have. Our midfield gave up and we got pumped. It wasn't JSOS's fault. He did the best he could, but it isn't a role he is built for. Asking him to do it regularly will be bad for the team, and he'll get battered every week. He has already had a bad run with injuries, including shoulder issues. Give him a year or two in that role and he'll be finished as a footballer.

ymmv

 

[Gethelred]

Jack did a great job when we needed him most. Competed above his level. He's got the right stuff.

We'll get away with it against some sides. But, as a strategy, it's a losing one. We'll get absolutely smashed on a regular basis if we go in with JSOS as our regular 2nd ruck. If you doubt me, go have another look at the Norf match. Goldy wore out TDK in the first half, then did what he liked in the second. Poor JSOS then ended up against big Xerri and at times Goldy too, spent more time on the ball than he should have. Our midfield gave up and we got pumped. It wasn't JSOS's fault. He did the best he could, but it isn't a role he is built for. Asking him to do it regularly will be bad for the team, and he'll get battered every week. He has already had a bad run with injuries, including shoulder issues. Give him a year or two in that role and he'll be finished as a footballer.

ymmv

North is more or less precisely the side that I wouldn't run that strategy against. Goldstein being a great ruckman, and there being a long term connection between him and Cunnington.

But I'd argue we're always going to lose that match. They had just hit form, their midfield had dominated WB two weeks before they got us (and spent the remainder of the season outperforming almost everyone they were against) and Harry was out.

 

[Justnetime]

I suppose the question becomes, how do you measure a ruckman? Do you measure them using marks, HO win%, HO to advantage and HO to adv. %? Do you measure them with clearance participation (IE, the same kind of thing as a goal assist/score assist, but within a clearance context)?

This is what I’m interested in when picking a team. Position or role traits backed up by stats. The one thing holding this back is that there isn’t a stat that can really back up defensive transition skills which are really important. Traits and stats take out the crap like ‘ I prefer SPS or McGovern in defence‘. They should have gameday attributes or traits that match….if not, players like McGovern should simply go via VFL for a defence role and show us they are capable like Jones did. Don’t just roll dice in the firsts, and at same time piss other players on the list off.

Each role, lock down defender, rebound defender, key position back has some easy to identify traits and stats to show us who is suited as first choice. Austin has mentioned traits and I personally think it is why he replaced SPS in the back line with the recruitment of Saad. Metres gained was a huge differential Amongst other things. SPS defensive traits weren’t great stat wise. And it explained why he let him go. No real forward defensive traits, and a lack of midfield traits.

What is an example of picking by traits backed up by stats…
Rebound defender…some candidate stats/traits:

• Metres gained (this role is our playmaker or quarterback…this is a very important trait)
• tackling (we still want player to defend)
• Dispoals (a rebound defender needs to find enough of the ball as the release option)
• score involvements (good stuff starts from player)
• effective disposals (doesn’t turn it over)
• intercepts (illustrates reading of the play)

If we go through our list and take favourites out, the players present themselves (mostly) in the role.

Another side to this is if you break it down like this we don’t have the crap scenario where we had only Jones a year and a half ago being the only defender going really hard at the ground ball. The rest were waiting for the nice handball receive. It meant we had too many midsized defenders with the wrong traits in our back line. Stocker has remedied this a lot Which is why I wanted to at least see him in that role.

 

[Donnini]

Different types of rucks

TDK is more of a Nic Naitanui type - upside is huge but atm needs development.
Pitto is more of an improving Scott Lycett

29

Scott Lycett

Age

32

Ht

203cm

Wt

102kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.6

3star

K

6.3

2star

HB

6.3

4star

CL

2.6

4star

HO

19.0

5star

D

11.3

3star

K

5.7

2star

HB

5.7

3star

CL

4.2

5star

HO

24.7

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

3.6

2star

HB

4.6

4star

CL

0.4

3star

HO

5.0

5star

- his ruck work is superb in a below average midfield. Needs to improve his contested marking by ALOT.

 

[AlecDuncan]

Early in the season, Pitto was 3rd or 4th in total hit outs. He can tap the ball but it’s just not to advantage or in any other real, meaningful way. He just kind of slaps it.

He was second or third for hit-outs to advantage until he got injured. I've had this argument before.

Pitto 1st ruck for mine. Can't do it for four quarters, but you couldn't have a better chop-out than TDK. They both need to learn how to kick goals when they're not rucking, because we'll need them to.

 

[Blue Dimension]

With the greatest of respect to Pitto, this is not even a debate, TDK by the absolute length of the Flemington straight.

 

[Justnetime]

I think it is TDK too. He just needs to transition in two areas. Hitouts and physicality. Hopefully it is a natural progression.

Im just nervous that Cripps, Walsh and Cerra all have no impact again because our rucks are so non competitive in the air.

 

[BlueTongue]

Different types of rucks

TDK is more of a Nic Naitanui type - upside is huge but atm needs development.
Pitto is more of an improving Scott Lycett - his ruck work is superb in a below average midfield. Needs to improve his contested marking by ALOT.

It's hard to measure 'effectiveness' because an effective stat doesn't necessarily give us an advantage.

Someone like Gawn will not only win the tap, but has an awareness of where his teammates are, and where to put the ball to their best advantage.
So many times you see either Petracca or Oliver run full tilt onto a ball that has just been palmed down to them, and stream away from the pack. This is largely because of where Gawn has directed the ball to give them every chance at a clearance.

Pitto will Palm the ball down to a player, but that player isn't always in the best advantaged position, or is stopped/blocked shortly after running on to it.
That is the difference between a ruckman who can see the play unfold in a split second, or who knows their teammates instincts very well, and a ruckman who just palms it down to the nearest team jumper.

This sort of 'vision' requires natural instinct, or else years of knowing the most likely scenario in set plays.

Both Pitto and TDK don't have the years of set plays, but Pitto is definitely bigger and stronger to compete in a ruck-wrestle, to win the ball against big bodied players like Goldy and Grundy etc. He can also go forward and is a reasonable shot at goal.

However, I think that TDK's agility and leap give him a competitive advantage over most of his opp ruckman, and he also has good vision when winning the tap, so I feel he will improve a lot more over time. Although quite Raw, I think he is also a lot better around the ground and works harder both ways, which gives us more of a competitive advantage in defense.

Long term I see TDK as number#1, but for the next year or two I think selection will likely be depending on who we play, and Pitto will get the nod against the Bigger Bodied rucks, whereas TDK will get the nod against the mobile ruckman like Gawn & McInerney.

This is where a 3rd part time ruck is required, because I don't think you can play 2 dedicated ruckman in the same team, and I believe Cripps would be more useful here instead of Silvagni (absolutely nothing wrong with how JSOS goes about it, he may not win many tap outs but is no slouch at working hard around the ground).

 

[Gethelred]

This is what I’m interested in when picking a team. Position or role traits backed up by stats. The one thing holding this back is that there isn’t a stat that can really back up defensive transition skills which are really important. Traits and stats take out the crap like ‘ I prefer SPS or McGovern in defence‘. They should have gameday attributes or traits that match….if not, players like McGovern should simply go via VFL for a defence role and show us they are capable like Jones did. Don’t just roll dice in the firsts, and at same time piss other players on the list off.

Each role, lock down defender, rebound defender, key position back has some easy to identify traits and stats to show us who is suited as first choice. Austin has mentioned traits and I personally think it is why he replaced SPS in the back line with the recruitment of Saad. Metres gained was a huge differential Amongst other things. SPS defensive traits weren’t great stat wise. And it explained why he let him go. No real forward defensive traits, and a lack of midfield traits.

What is an example of picking by traits backed up by stats…
Rebound defender…some candidate stats/traits:

• Metres gained (this role is our playmaker or quarterback…this is a very important trait)
• tackling (we still want player to defend)
• Dispoals (a rebound defender needs to find enough of the ball as the release option)
• score involvements (good stuff starts from player)
• effective disposals (doesn’t turn it over)
• intercepts (illustrates reading of the play)

If we go through our list and take favourites out, the players present themselves (mostly) in the role.

Another side to this is if you break it down like this we don’t have the crap scenario where we had only Jones a year and a half ago being the only defender going really hard at the ground ball. The rest were waiting for the nice handball receive. It meant we had too many midsized defenders with the wrong traits in our back line. Stocker has remedied this a lot Which is why I wanted to at least see him in that role.

Stellar post.

 

[Arr0w]

The #1 enemy of any statistical analysis is autocorrelation - how any player performs depends as much as how every other player is performing around them in a team game. If our on ballers can't figure out where Pittonet is going to tap to given whoever he is up against ( ie take into account the fact that Pitto has a relatively poor leap on him - that is as much on them as Pittonet.

One thing I've noticed about TDK is that he actually has a footy brain - Pittonet is a tad short of the smarts. TDK may actually have the highest leap in the competition - we have seen this work to advantage against blokes like Nic Nat - against typical barging type rucks TDK will be at disadvantage till he fills out.

Would be great if TDK was a genuine decent kick for goal- his marking is quite good for a tall forward- but his posiitoning sense is very much 'resting ruckman' as far as forward play goes. Still he is very raw and young - good coaching will see him improve quickly I reckon. Pittonet? sub par in pretty much every skill ther eis to talk about based on exposed form - and very litle awareness of where heis 'tocuhes'will go in general ball ups- too often they go straight to opposiiton mid.

People suggesting SOJ plays as a part time ruck - clearly dont wish him to have a long career.

 

[Arr0w]

Just don't get why we are trying to re-invent successful formulas/settle for substandard situations

TDK should be the top dog, Pitto should only play if the opposition run with non jumpers/athletic types. Even then he is inept forward

If Young isn't going to play as the 2nd KPF/chopout ruck, target another option

JSOS, is a fighter, but should only be used as a last resort

This is one of the club's greatest shortfalls and has been for some time