Free Kick differential over the last 15 years

[Elton Johns Wig]

Interesting post.



It doesn't stay the same, either. WC 2003 vs WC 2018 is irrelevant as there are no common players, the coach is different and even the home ground is different. WC 2008 to 2009, though - how can we go from 110 to 20? Ditto 2015/16. Essentially the same side and we went from 85 to 22. Our best year for free kick differential was 2008 which was arguably our worst season.



I'm not sure we all can. There are a few out there (hai Plugger25) who repeatedly argue about it as though there are forces conciously trying to aid/punish certain teams year on year.



Agree game style isn't really a factor but I don't buy the crowd thing. I switch on the TV to watch us play in Melbourne and Adelaide or away vs Freo and hear 'boooo', 'balll' etc. in every game. It's only games with tiny crowds (GC, Western Sydney, Canberra, Cairns etc.) where you hear minimal noise, and if I'm watching Carlton vs Melbourne or something there will be noise from two sets of supporters.



Those stats in the OP are home and away, though. The discrepancy is more significant at home, but if it's a crowd thing why don't we have an even overall free kick differential playing 11 games away? We don't take a lot of traveling fans and often play in front of hostile 40-50k+ crowds.



What should the free kick count in the second half have been? 14-7? 14-14? 10-10?



The 2017 GF was played in a neutral venue. Crowd was 25/25/50 Crows/Richmond/neturals - give or take. Richmond won the free kick count 24-19 and got the benefit of plenty of iffy calls. Why is that?

You are also arguing correlation = causation.



Nobody denies the data. Just the unsupported theories derived from it.

Right now we are 6th for FF and 17th for FA. And people are still focusing on 'WC umpiring'. If we were 10th on the ladder this thread wouldn't exist.

In the car at soccer training on a shitty tablet, I can't break it up like you.

Can you give a rational explanation as to why you've never been negative FK diff since 2000 or 03 or whatever it was? It's gone up and down, but never been negative. It doesn't stay the same, it will rarely be the same.

Can you also explain where the data set goes from roughly -500 to +500 for 17 clubs, barring one club is an outlier at +900. I've yet to see anyone make a logical explanation for this.

You split up my point about the 14-1 FK. Where did I say it should be different?? I explained in the next sentence that held at a neutral ground, it would almost certainly, almost certainly, not have been 14-1. I also staed clearly that we were smashed and the best team won. I'm not making excuses here, the umpiring didn't lose us the game, and I wasn't inferring as such. Breaking up that point made it look shit.

The 2017 wasn't a neutral venue -it's our HG, and a massive advantage for us, I accept that. It's the most neutral of HG when we play a Vic side, but it's an advantage.

I'm an ex tradie mate, and I'm excellent with numbers (sell wine now, and love and need the data) But I've got no idea what correlation v causation means. You'll have to help me out there.

 

[Ghossein]

for the stats nerds, here are the descriptive stats for the dataset in the original tweet

 

[Retzlaff]

2015 preliminary final. West coast vs North.


That is all.

And bizarrely - same ground, same weekend we have the opposite outcome in Freo v Hawks

 

[ziad]

get neutral umpires like all credible international contests

 

[Coaster2012]

The most annoying thing about WC getting so many free kicks at home is the subsequent media uproar about "home town umpiring in WA", only for poor old Fremantle to get r*ped by the umpires at home the following week.

And bizarrely - same ground, same weekend we have the opposite outcome in Freo v Hawks

Doesn't seem to effect WC the week after that. Perhaps you need to find some more passionate supporters.

 

[Coaster2012]

West Coast get the free kicks because they play the game the most fairly (and are probably the biggest duckers in the league). Explains the free kick differential.

Yeah 2017 called, they want their opinion back.

Ducking has pretty much been erased from the game.

There's no way you can sit there and say WC milk more frees than other teams.

 

[Ghossein]

Can you also explain where the data set goes from roughly -500 to +500 for 17 clubs, barring one club is an outlier at +900. I've yet to see anyone make a logical explanation for this.

I've got no idea what correlation v causation means. You'll have to help me out there.

firstly the totals are meaningless, so we shouldn't even be using them. a team could have successive seasons well into the positive then have one season at the lowest differential ever and have a total that looks like it's relatively normal.

Correlation vs. causation means that just because the numbers seem to suggest an effect doesn't mean one actually exists. This means that an evil statistician could use correlation analysis to make all kinds of whacky claims, like pirates cause climate change

or that ice cream sales cause shark attacks

 

[Ghossein]

this is why I want to conduct an analysis and see if the differential actually has an impact on the team's performance that year. if it doesn't then the thread can be shut and we can stop complaining about this problem.

 

[Rob]

2015 preliminary final. West coast vs North.


That is all.

Yet the night before at the same ground you had umpires literally inventing rules so they could pay free kicks against the home team.

Explain that.

 

[ghostbat12]

Yeah 2017 called, they want their opinion back.

Ducking has pretty much been erased from the game.

There's no way you can sit there and say WC milk more frees than other teams.

I don’t think that we milk more frees at home. It’s more that opposition don’t get the same frees. That’s what Richo was trying to get at mainly.

 

[Ghossein]

2015 preliminary final. West coast vs North.


That is all.

"its the umpires fault my team ran out of steam in the 2nd half"

 

[dave123]

WA team leading?? That's not the issue. Nice deflection. The issue, is that in any one single season, You've NEVER had a negative differential, and only once in single figures.

As others have pointed out, to be that far ahead of second best is an outlier.

It's got nothing to do with personnel, as the turnover in that time is huge.


And don't give me wide open spaces. The G has wide open spaces.

Find the real reason.

Sorry if a Victorian team was leading it this would not be an issue at all.

 

[dave123]

You’ve won 3 extra flags than you should of.

Hah hah yeah how many flags have Melbourne won. .oh your poor soul ...do you need some kleenxi for those tears

 

[Ghossein]

WA team leading?? That's not the issue. Nice deflection.

so when the bulldogs had the highest differential in recorded history were they being blasted on AFL 360 every night? or were we all going on about how amazing they are?

 

[Blackas87]

Hah hah yeah how many flags have Melbourne won. .oh your poor soul ...do you need some kleenxi for those tears

Melbourne have won 12

 

[dave123]

Isten to all the vics having q whinge bitch moan.....time for some.teddy whitten bullshit to be dug up again ...the fact this is west coast ia the issue ..if a Victorian team was leading the differential count this would not even be a talking point. The fact West coast is flying the Vics hate it.....they hated it 92 94...they accused of steroid use....in 2006 it was drugs making us win. .

Eveytime west coast starts to play well or is in contention the Vic coaches...media whinge

They whinge when swans win ...cola

They bitched when brisbane won ....cola and hand outs..

The vics just hate non Vix teams succeeding ...

Its been that way since they took.our 4 million bucks to join the VFL...they just hated it when we started winning and do so to this day.

Get over it Victorians

Over and out

 

[dave123]

so when the bulldogs had the highest differential in recorded history were they being blasted on AFL 360 every night? or were we all going on about how amazing they are?

See my post

Tbe vics hate west coast winning

 

[dave123]

Melbourne have won 12

Vfl

 

[Blackas87]

Vfl

Someone has a problem with the Vics

 

[beema limapep]

Isten to all the vics having q whinge bitch moan.....time for some.teddy whitten bullshit to be dug up again ...the fact this is west coast ia the issue ..if a Victorian team was leading the differential count this would not even be a talking point. The fact West coast is flying the Vics hate it.....they hated it 92 94...they accused of steroid use....in 2006 it was drugs making us win. .

Eveytime west coast starts to play well or is in contention the Vic coaches...media whinge

They whinge when swans win ...cola

They bitched when brisbane won ....cola and hand outs..

The vics just hate non Vix teams succeeding ...

Its been that way since they took.our 4 million bucks to join the VFL...they just hated it when we started winning and do so to this day.

Get over it Victorians

Over and out

nah we just hate you because you are shit human beings

 

[Scotland]

In the car at soccer training on a shitty tablet, I can't break it up like you.

Can you give a rational explanation as to why you've never been negative FK diff since 2000 or 03 or whatever it was? It's gone up and down, but never been negative. It doesn't stay the same, it will rarely be the same

I cannot. Some games 50 free kicks are paid, others closer to 20. I haven't analysed the data set in excruciating detail because yeah, nah.

The AFL review umpiring performances game by game. What I'd like to know is are the reviews of say WC games vs Sydney games over the period 2003-2018 comparable? If data existed said Sydney had 300 frees missed and 300 frees incorrectly paid against them compared to WC 0 and 0 then I'd be interested. If it said that both WC and Sydney games were umpired fairly and the number of frees missed, incorrectly paid frees etc. were comparable then what are we here discussing? But I don't know if that data exists or if it does what it says.

Can you also explain where the data set goes from roughly -500 to +500 for 17 clubs, barring one club is an outlier at +900. I've yet to see anyone make a logical explanation for this.

Does it need one? Richmond for example are consistently high for free kicks given away. They've been an OK team, a rubbish team and a top team and they are still regularly leading the FA count. Is that noteworthy or just how it is?

You split up my point about the 14-1 FK. Where did I say it should be different?? I explained in the next sentence that held at a neutral ground, it would almost certainly, almost certainly, not have been 14-1. I also staed clearly that we were smashed and the best team won. I'm not making excuses here, the umpiring didn't lose us the game, and I wasn't inferring as such. Breaking up that point made it look shit.

Sorry, but it is a shit point. You can argue 'almost certainly' all day long but it's a hypothetical and Richmond aren't going to play WC at Adelaide Oval or some other neutral venue anyway. If the umpires weren't a factor in the WC vs Richmond game then what does it matter what the free kick count was? I've watched games and barely noticed the umpires and the tally has ended up 30-10, then others involving my team where I've wanted to throw something through the TV and it ends up 15-15.

If someone wants to go to the effort of highlighting every free kick Richmond could or should have got in the second half vs WC then the floor is theirs, but I remember watching the game that throw after throw after throw was not paid throughout the game affecting both sides. So it would be rich to focus on a missed frees when there were inevitably missed frees both ways.

The 2017 wasn't a neutral venue -it's our HG, and a massive advantage for us, I accept that. It's the most neutral of HG when we play a Vic side, but it's an advantage.

I'm an ex tradie mate, and I'm excellent with numbers (sell wine now, and love and need the data) But I've got no idea what correlation v causation means. You'll have to help me out there.

A occurs, B occurs therefore B is because of A.

E.g. West Coast crowds are loud (they really aren't), West Coast win the free kick differential, therefore the the loud crowds cause the positive free kick differential.

 

[Cudi_420]

Vfl

You joined the VFL.

 

[Gavin Excell]

The most annoying thing about WC getting so many free kicks at home is the subsequent media uproar about "home town umpiring in WA", only for poor old Fremantle to get r*ped by the umpires at home the following week.

You guys are gonna get absolutely pummelled by the umps this week now this is a media story

 

[Kenny_01]

Doesn't seem to effect WC the week after that. Perhaps you need to find some more passionate supporters.

Yes, because there is no media uproar after Freo plays so goes back to status quo... then rinse and repeat.

 

[Scotland]

2015 preliminary final. West coast vs North.

That is all.

Is that the game where we had 10 more scoring shots and you kicked 7.13?