Free Kick differential over the last 15 years

[RookiePick]

...
Rd 6 - Margetts, Dalgleish, Wallace - close derby win (I suspect this is what would anger Freo fans the most, Margetts umpiring a derby, but we only won the free kick count by two - 22 to 20)
...

But but but look at where the free kicks were paid/Junktime frees to square up the books etc etc etc

Folks will argue three sides of the same argument to validate their world view.

 

[the big lebowski]

West coast at home has always been a problem with free kicks. It’s just a fact that the stats clearly show.

Not sure what the answer is but they should try something different in Perth. Do Perth based umpires work there? If so maybe give them games elsewhere. Maybe try noise canceling headphones so umps can only hear each other.

But that’s a Don Bradman statistical anomaly and it doesn’t take into account the difference between free kick differential at home versus away.

If you just look at the home decisions then you will see the truth.

 

[West Coast 06]

Cheers, for some reason thought we were in the positive for all our wins.

Those other three games were away.

Coincidence? Not really. Every professional sporting competition in the world has more fouls, penalties, violations etc awarded against a visiting team. Yes, there will be exceptions for individual games and even seasons but over the long term, it always trends that way.

We should really be asking for an inquiry as to why we have lost the free kick count away from Optus 3/4 times.

Saints coach should be happy they don’t travel interstate every other week I guess.

 

[TiggerMan22]

Oof. Thats an embarrassment.

You have only 5 teams over +63 and theres a team at +919.

 

[West Coast 06]

West coast at home has always been a problem with free kicks. It’s just a fact that the stats clearly show.

Not sure what the answer is but they should try something different in Perth. Do Perth based umpires work there? If so maybe give them games elsewhere. Maybe try noise canceling headphones so umps can only hear each other.

But that’s a Don Bradman statistical anomaly and it doesn’t take into account the difference between free kick differential at home versus away.

If you just look at the home decisions then you will see the truth.

Lucky we don’t get to stay at home as much as the Vic teams do or the premiership would be ours every year.

 

[the big lebowski]

Lucky we don’t get to stay at home as much as the Vic teams do or the premiership would be ours every year.

No need to deflect my friend. We are talking about 2 decades worth of statistically shocking free kick numbers. Let’s stay focused on that.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

I think people do underestimate the effect of gameplan. I do credit the umpires with objectivity.
There was a real difference in raw numbers in our game on Sunday. Maybe some small part of it was the crowd bringing things to the attention of the umps.
The major part was we played very agressive footy and walked the line though.

No doubt the Tigers poor seeming differential over the last couple of years is influenced by their aggression at the ball as well. Even though they play a lot at the G in front of the Tiger army.

 

[Aramis]

I mean its just fairly interesting to note the difference between West Coast and Fremantle's differentials... if it had something to do with playing in WA you would think they would be similar but they aren't even close. Cant write off statistical anomaly.

 

[West Coast 06]

This has no joke been a topic of discussion every year for as long as I can remember. Does everyone out there really think the (Vic biased) AFL powerbrokers have not done some sort of investigation into this?

Do you really think the umpiring department don’t do weekly reviews of games? That they don’t get calls from opposition coaches like the Scott sisters and Richo every other week?

The fact that no one can come up with anything concrete suggests to me that there is nothing there that is not entirely above board. If there was anything remotely dodgy about our free kicks the Vic media would be all over it like a rash, and not just in their usual “wah, they get more free kicks” but in an actual competent review of how and where we are favoured.

But crying is all they can come up with.

 

[Forward Press]

I mean its just fairly interesting to note the difference between West Coast and Fremantle's differentials... if it had something to do with playing in WA you would think they would be similar but they aren't even close. Cant write off statistical anomaly.

Playing style?

We have the highest FK differentials in years when we played corraling football - you cannot give away free kicks when you're not touching the opposition. It has dropped off this year as we started to bury players with tackles. Maybe we work hard over the pre-season to ensure our tackles and the way we approach contests minimise free kicks. I don't really know.

You are right though in that it simply cannot be home ground advantage for WA teams when Freo haven't got the same advantage.

 

[Coasters7]

You can't blame Hawks supporters for celebrating this thread.

These stats were available at the time of freekickhawthorn but people chose to ignore them and troll a football team.... including members of the media.

RIP Freekickhawthorn

Just playing devils advocate here but the 3peat years are conveniently some of the only ones in the positive

 

[Dr Tigris]

Great post the OP.

It does show up strong differentials in free kicks to clubs year by year. The WC stat is amazing!! No idea what's behind it given it is both H&A. But something to dig into.

In each year certain clubs tend to get hammered, and other loved by the umps. I wonder how much of that is playing styles and how much is socialization among the umps about certain clubs.

 

[Aramis]

Playing style?

We have the highest FK differentials in years when we played corraling football - you cannot give away free kicks when you're not touching the opposition. It has dropped off this year as we started to bury players with tackles. Maybe we work hard over the pre-season to ensure our tackles and the way we approach contests minimise free kicks. I don't really know.

You are right though in that it simply cannot be home ground advantage for WA teams when Freo haven't got the same advantage.

It truly is a bizarre looking stat but I think thats as far as it goes.. its definitely not some conspiracy or anything like that.

The "playing style" theory doesn't hold up in my mind due to your playing style not having been one consistent style over that period. It's changed multiple times and not to mention the playing list and coach has changed multiple times. Not only has your playing style changed but the whole game probably went through 3-4 different iterations of how it is played. Not to mention the seismic rule changes within the last 10 years.

 

[Corkintheocean]

Pretty small sample size in the scheme of things. It is more likely caused by random variance as opposed to inherent bias (legal or illegal). Run the data for another 100 years and I bet we trend to a zero differential.

 

[Roddy]

#freekickhawthorn was a complete myth perpetuated by jealous, brainwashed, bandwagon-jumping morons who have no idea what they’re talking about.

We got some rare rub of the green in a few games in 2016, that’s it. The rest is vacuous hype.

 

[citizen-erased]

Nothing really surprising on that table.

West Coast have the crowds that help influence the umps in decisions.
Bucks summed it up nicely on SEN this morning, you wouldn't be human if you didn't respond to your external environment.

I imagine if they had 11 home games @ GMHBA, Geelong would have a similar output. Esp if the crowd ramped up to the same levels.

North - well they've been getting a free ride for decades.
I am truly baffled by the some of the frees they get in games, yet their coach has the audacity to carry on when one goes against them/isn't paid...

 

[Rob]

Pretty small sample size in the scheme of things. It is more likely caused by random variance as opposed to inherent bias (legal or illegal). Run the data for another 100 years and I bet we trend to a zero differential.

Not really. Free kicks are a zero sum game - the chances of getting 15 straight years of more frees for than against is 0.003%, i.e. 1 in 32,768.
It's actually 17 straight years for west coast....so 1 in 131,072.
That's statistically significant.

 

[browncow]

If the stat I read where Dean Cox had a free kick differential of +237 in his 290 game career is correct, then just that one single player is responsible for over a quarter of the Eagles positive free kick differential.

That stat may be incorrect though?

 

[citizen-erased]

#freekickhawthorn was a complete myth perpetuated by jealous, brainwashed, bandwagon-jumping morons who have no idea what they’re talking about.

We got some rare rub of the green in a few games in 2016, that’s it. The rest is vacuous hype.

yeah, i never subscribed to that theory

I think the Adelaide game a couple of years ago was probably the one that stood out, but by and large the hawks gave away as many as they got.
An argument could be mounted that you gave some very obvious, unsociable ones away whilst receiving soft ones in return.
But at least the ones you were giving away weren't being ignored.

 

[Corkintheocean]

Not really. Free kicks are a zero sum game - the chances of getting 15 straight years of more frees for than against is 0.003%, i.e. 1 in 32,768.
It's actually 17 straight years for west coast....so 1 in 131,072.
That's statistically significant.

So you don't think as time approaches infinity, West Coast's free kick differential heads toward 0?

 

[TiggerMan22]

This has no joke been a topic of discussion every year for as long as I can remember. Does everyone out there really think the (Vic biased) AFL powerbrokers have not done some sort of investigation into this?

Do you really think the umpiring department don’t do weekly reviews of games? That they don’t get calls from opposition coaches like the Scott sisters and Richo every other week?

The fact that no one can come up with anything concrete suggests to me that there is nothing there that is not entirely above board. If there was anything remotely dodgy about our free kicks the Vic media would be all over it like a rash, and not just in their usual “wah, they get more free kicks” but in an actual competent review of how and where we are favoured.

But crying is all they can come up with.

Its your crowd that boos every single thing and abuses umps when they pay it the other way. What an embarrassment.

 

[Rob]

So you don't think as time approaches infinity, West Coast's free kick differential heads toward 0?

You'd hope so.

But that doesn't seem to be happening.

 

[Corkintheocean]

You'd hope so.

But that doesn't seem to be happening.

Time for everyone with a bee in their bonnet to start controlling for variables then and getting to the crux of the issue.

 

[Tiger_Of_Old]

Those who think home crowds don't have an effect on umpiring are kidding themselves.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Its your crowd that boos every single thing and abuses umps when they pay it the other way. What an embarrassment.

Hard to detect the irony but I'll give you credit and assume it's there.