-
AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Free Kick differential over the last 15 years
- Thread starter Unique Name
- Start date
- Tagged users None
bh90210fan
Norm Smith Medallist
- Sep 4, 2017
- 9,623
- 11,112
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Banned
- #152
Richmond have the most members, with the biggest stadium in the country yet can’t create the same atmosphere as WC. That’s an embarrassment
We’re not going to be embarrassed about getting free kicks because the rest of the comp get upset about it ya ****
Grogg
Norm Smith Medallist
I can see where you are coming from. Tossing a fair coin can come up with unusual results in the short term.
That logic would work except for the fact there are underlying differences between clubs. For example, do you think as time approaches infinity each club will win 1/18 of premierships or does the fact the grand final is held at the MCG skew the results.
Elton Johns Wig
Premiership Ruckman
- Moderator
- #155
WA team leading?? That's not the issue. Nice deflection. The issue, is that in any one single season, You've NEVER had a negative differential, and only once in single figures.
As others have pointed out, to be that far ahead of second best is an outlier.
It's got nothing to do with personnel, as the turnover in that time is huge.
And don't give me wide open spaces. The G has wide open spaces.
Find the real reason.
- Jul 20, 2014
- 8,194
- 18,416
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
There is nothing dodgy about the free kicks you get paid. They are all there.
The dodginess that leads to the differential relates to the free kicks to your opponents not paid.
I have been saying it for years, there are literally in excess of 100 rule infringements in every game I watch. Every single one. The problem we have is the umpires pay some and not others. They are either blind and stupid, or they subconsciously apply all sorts of factors that influence whether they pay a free when they 'see' an infringement. One of those is possibly the likelihood of the BOOOOOOO.
I actually feel for the umpires as their decision making is compromised by stupid directives from AFL house to "let the game flow" and "avoid being over technical". So there is an inbuilt incentive for them to ignore frees that are there. When you are looking for reasons not to pay frees, I'd be surprised if crowd reaction isn't one of them.
So I repeat, there is nothing wrong with the frees you are paid, the problem is the frees to your opponents not paid.
Elton Johns Wig
Premiership Ruckman
- Moderator
- #157
POTY
- Apr 21, 2014
- 3,930
- 6,885
- AFL Club
- Fremantle
- Other Teams
- Vancouver Canucks
At the risk of polluting this thread with a serious reply, I think crowd is the most important factor currently. The Freo vs WC count is interesting in that you'd assume Vic-based umpires probably wouldn't solve it.
I don't really buy the playing style argument. Yeah, the Eagles have played a somewhat uncontested style with some good tall forwards recently. That doesn't explain the mid-2000s where that was not the case. You can see that somewhat reflected in other teams - Hawks with only a slight positive differential in the period where they really focused on an uncontested style (in context of their usual baseline there could be something there though), Doggies a big positive differential recently (insert 2016 umpiring conspiracy theory). Play style doesn't solve it IMO, it's too consistent across multiple years/eras for multiple teams. It also doesn't explain the home v away differential.
I'm also not sure about the blue argument. It is interesting that the top-4 teams are blue teams. But the studies on that kind of thing aren't particularly well replicated and it is one of those social psychology effects that is amazingly easy to find significance depending on your priors. Then there's the large home vs away discrepancy to consider, as you'd expect that effect to persist regardless of location. I'm somewhat more convinced by the studies on reputational influences. Another poster raises the Dean Cox differential which could be a major factor there.
West Coast crowds are a bit different though. They typically get larger crowds than us, which is a reflection of the relative size of the supporter bases. Their crowds are more pure in a sense, in that our crowds have had a decent % of freagles and opposition supporters, because prior to this year that was the only way you could actually see live AFL football in WA - go to a Freo game. You don't get that sheer lopsided nature of 40k vs 2-3k in Melbourne. They're also more vocal with respect to free kicks, there's a reason for the stereotyping of the boo-ing and baaallllll. Demographic wise, compared to Freo, IMO you have a larger amount of older, more rusted-on supporters. Separate these numbers into home vs away and I think you'll see an even more pronounced difference.
Of course, the massive hole in this argument is Port since 2014. Similar crowd bias, similar noise, not reflected in the free kick differential. So there's that. There may very well be a team perception effect in there as well. I mean who really cares enough about North to hate them?
Ultimately it's most likely the ground factor I think. There's some more numbers here: https://thearcfooty.com/2016/04/23/freekicksathome/
Elton Johns Wig
Premiership Ruckman
- Moderator
- #159
Lets hope so brother, lets hope so.
I guessing tongue in cheek but you might have stumbled onto a truth here.
Firstly its blue or black not yellow and white.
The top 9 all wear black or blue.
Only 3 of the bottom 9 and none of the bottom 5.
Maybe it is a colour thing.
Maybe these colours create some sort of aggravation and lead to more infringements and that's why they get more frees. (gotta head you just want to hit syndrome).
Wonder what colours dominate penalties in NRL?
(don't care really)
- Mar 28, 2018
- 10,491
- 8,454
- AFL Club
- GWS
Port have had a reputation for playing unsociable footy for longer than they've had an AFL side. It's probably unfair to tarnish their current list with all the past played with a different set of values. Even in the last 5 years they've been involved in more melees than any other club though. Certainly our guys have valued beating them more than other teams because they were bullied in the early years. Even in 2016 there were several nasty incidents in both our games. From both sides it's true.
Remember Clarjson issuing a "bring it on " challenge before playing them in 2016.
That perception may well affect umpires and the comparison.
joelsyt
Brownlow Medallist
- Mar 11, 2016
- 22,680
- 58,988
- AFL Club
- Richmond
Hate to inform you but most if not all crowds do this.
We did it in the third quarter of the St Kilda match. May have only been about 40k or whatever it was at the G but there was a lot of Richmond supporters at the game and a lot of abuse and swearing from Richmond supporters directed at the umpires.
When we got loud the game changed in our favour, the boys lifted but the umpiring changed and we got a some favourable decisions our way. That was my experience at that game anyway.
Home crowds do have an effect and it’s not just West Coast crowds that hurl abuse at the umpires.
In regards to the thread, it’s an interesting phenomenon their free kick differential, no idea what it’s down to. Also doubt anyone will seriously look into it.
It’s taken me awhile but I’ve finally accepted if your team is good enough they’ll win with or without the umpires on side.
You whine a lot.
- Banned
- #164
the way west coast fans deny unbiased data, they must all be climate change deniers, flat earthers and anti-vaxxers. No sensible person can look at a free kick differential twice as big as the next best, and believe that there is not some underlying issue causing such a large discrepancy.
- Banned
- #165
not as much as west coat fans apparently
RookiePick
Brownlow Medallist
- Aug 13, 2014
- 27,712
- 50,095
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Care to posit a theorum?
Mind control powers of West Coast fans? Corruption of umpires or the AFL directing them? Aliens?
Plugger35
Umpiring Expert
- Sep 27, 2008
- 139,993
- 162,458
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
- Other Teams
- Chelsea, Black Caps, Sea Eagles, Subiaco
I've seen plenty of dodgy free kicks go West Coast's way in home games over the years, there were several in our game on Saturday night as well, but even if you complain about it the umpires can't replay the game and change those decisions, the result still stands.
The problem is that nothing has changed over the years despite the complaints, every year West Coast get an armchair ride at home because the umpires seem unable to umpire games fairly there without being influenced by the mostly pro West Coast crowd. They need to find umpires that have the courage to pay free kicks fairly despite how much booing and abuse they cop from the crowd, that's easier said than done though as most people don't like being booed and abused.
There was also Hawthorn's game against St Kilda down in Launceston the week before where the umpires swung the momentum the Hawks way in the last quarter with a couple of incorrect "not 15" calls and a few other questionable decisions. Then with the Adelaide game the following week there became a growing belief that the umpires were favouring Hawthorn when games were close and they were in danger of losing, not an unreasonable theory when umpires usually favour the better teams, especially a team that had won multiple premierships.
Because CA only selects NSW players.
So which of the 6 htb decisions in the 3rd quarter weren't there?
Arguably the most dominant ruckman of all time, Dean Cox, had a +222 differential in that period alone, opposition rucks constantly infringed on him because he was not only great in ruck contests but he'd run them into the ground in general play. Our current dominant ruck duo account for +84. That right there accounts for over a third of the differential, just with our dominant rucks. Priddis and Kerr who were as hard at it as anyone, account for a total +223. Adam Selwood a reknown ducker accounts for +178, his brother Scott also known for his ducking accounts for +60. Shuey accounts for +104, majority of which was in the first half of his career when he ducked exessively.
Just by examining our dominant rucks through 03-18, 2 of the hardest in an under players of the last 20 years in Priddis and Kerr, and then 3 players who were known for excessive ducking/shrugging in the late 00's - early 10's you can account for 871/919 total, or 95% of the differential.
We've been a low tackle count and high marking team for pretty much all of this period, we've been playing zone defense opposed to man on man for a long time now, we had a period of time with a lot of ducking/shrugging. It's really not that difficult to explain.
In the light of this information, what do you guys think is more likely?
A. We have the best crowd in the world (but why don't other passionate one eyed fan bases offer similar benefits ?)
B. There is an AFL/umpire conspiracy to give west coast, and only west coast a leg up.
C. We've had a few particular personnel throughout that period that contributed largely and a varying, but a consistently high differential gamestyle due to things like low tackle counts, high marking, intercepting, zoning over man on man, and not many players known to be "unsocial".
My guess is option C, if anyone would like to break down the home vs away differential of all teams over that period it'd be much appreciated as it would help us all determine if west coast only have a good differential relative to other teams at home, or if it's consistent away as well. I suspect we will be near the top, if not the top of the away differential table as well, which would support the gamestyle/personnel argument.
Just by examining our dominant rucks through 03-18, 2 of the hardest in an under players of the last 20 years in Priddis and Kerr, and then 3 players who were known for excessive ducking/shrugging in the late 00's - early 10's you can account for 871/919 total, or 95% of the differential.
We've been a low tackle count and high marking team for pretty much all of this period, we've been playing zone defense opposed to man on man for a long time now, we had a period of time with a lot of ducking/shrugging. It's really not that difficult to explain.
In the light of this information, what do you guys think is more likely?
A. We have the best crowd in the world (but why don't other passionate one eyed fan bases offer similar benefits ?)
B. There is an AFL/umpire conspiracy to give west coast, and only west coast a leg up.
C. We've had a few particular personnel throughout that period that contributed largely and a varying, but a consistently high differential gamestyle due to things like low tackle counts, high marking, intercepting, zoning over man on man, and not many players known to be "unsocial".
My guess is option C, if anyone would like to break down the home vs away differential of all teams over that period it'd be much appreciated as it would help us all determine if west coast only have a good differential relative to other teams at home, or if it's consistent away as well. I suspect we will be near the top, if not the top of the away differential table as well, which would support the gamestyle/personnel argument.
Pretty hard for all those 3 game members to influence the umpires from their couch for 8 out of 11 games
- Oct 8, 2007
- 13,798
- 9,505
- AFL Club
- West Coast
- Other Teams
- FLO-RIDA , PITBULL ,SEAN PAUL
- Jun 5, 2004
- 9,221
- 6,914
- AFL Club
- West Coast
Anyone able to provide a complete breakdown of the data? I'm talking where on the ground a free is paid, severity of infringement, frees paid that cancel out a mark anyway, is it a "professional" free, frees paid and advantage is taken, out of bounds on the full frees, frees paid at crucial times/non-crucial times? You know - stats that would actually matter, rather than large overall numbers or "gut feels" that suit an agenda?
If anyone is able to provide that data for us, would be much appreciated.
If anyone is able to provide that data for us, would be much appreciated.
- Oct 3, 2012
- 12,946
- 25,092
- AFL Club
- Richmond
hahahahahahhahahahahaha lmao. Either youre taking the piss or just really dont understand how sound works.
