Free Kick differential over the last 15 years

[javaguice]

LOLOL

Same thing comes up every time eagles are up and about. "The game is ugly to watch....rah rah...free kicks...rah rah"

Where in the rule book does it say free kick count should be even?

Where else in the world do people complain about home crowds?

AFL must be the only sport in the world where a team has home ground advantage.....

Its the nature of the competition.....Vic teams get kissed on the doodlz with the travel factor so have to whinge about anything and everything else.

You're better than that guys.....don't be bitter, be better.

 

[sportsmaniac89]

So I've learned a few things from this!

Saints aren't as hard done by as what their fans continually whinge about.

I'm also disappointed with Robbo Monday night for failing to confront Richo with the obvious one....how come when the Saints played shit against Freo in Perth, they had 23 free kicks to 16?

People go, why don't Freo get the same advantage?

We're the square up that prevents conspiracy theorists from saying there's a Perth problem.

Our last 4 home games

vs Western Bulldogs - 15-25 (given the Bulldogs were second to the ball all night, this makes no logical sense)
vs West Coast 20-22 (a series of strange adjudications where different rules were applied)
vs St Kilda 16-23 (see Bulldogs game for confusion)
vs North Melbourne 21-24 (this one there's no complaint on as our discipline failed us in this game although that Hamling non-decision was the worst decision of all time)

The truth is, West Coast are getting a disproportionate number of Free Kicks over a long period of time and this is something that needs to be addressed.

Also, Saints fans can shut up because they aren't in the 3 most hard done by clubs over the last 15 years.

 

["The Roar Is Back"]

LOLOL

Same thing comes up every time eagles are up and about. "The game is ugly to watch....rah rah...free kicks...rah rah"

Where in the rule book does it say free kick count should be even?

Where else in the world do people complain about home crowds?

AFL must be the only sport in the world where a team has home ground advantage.....

Its the nature of the competition.....Vic teams get kissed on the doodlz with the travel factor so have to whinge about anything and everything else.

You're better than that guys.....don't be bitter, be better.

With a significant free kick advantage you are , but could you match it with other sides if you didn't have that advantage ?
Be interesting to see the data on the Nic Nat throws and times Hurn isn't called for holding onto it ?

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

If we're just going to use raw differential data to make arguments, vic teams have a +33 differential in the last 6 grand finals at +5.6 a game, "something needs to be done?!".

Am I doing it right? That's a bit more significant than west coast having a +2.6 differential while having a few specific personnel who were good at drawing frees and a gamestyle over the period which lead itself to a good differential.

 

[javaguice]

With a significant free kick advantage you are , but could you match it with other sides if you didn't have that advantage ?
Be interesting to see the data on the Nic Nat throws and times Hurn isn't called for holding onto it ?

Come on mate, you're better than this.....

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

With a significant free kick advantage you are , but could you match it with other sides if you didn't have that advantage ?
Be interesting to see the data on the Nic Nat throws and times Hurn isn't called for holding onto it ?

Be interesting to see the data on richmond throws, rance holds or pushes, riewoldt flops, dusty high fend offs etc. don't you think?

 

[STPer18]

I imagine if they had 11 home games @ GMHBA, Geelong would have a similar output. Esp if the crowd ramped up to the same levels.

Based on last year in isolation, after our 7 games at Kardinia Park, we finished with 166 free kicks for and 148 free kicks against. Although the crowd is far more tame down here than over the border I imagine.

 

[Admiral Byng]

Arguably the most dominant ruckman of all time, Dean Cox, had a +222 differential in that period alone, opposition rucks constantly infringed on him because he was not only great in ruck contests but he'd run them into the ground in general play. Our current dominant ruck duo account for +84. That right there accounts for over a third of the differential, just with our dominant rucks. Priddis and Kerr who were as hard at it as anyone, account for a total +223. Adam Selwood a reknown ducker accounts for +178, his brother Scott also known for his ducking accounts for +60. Shuey accounts for +104, majority of which was in the first half of his career when he ducked exessively.

Just by examining our dominant rucks through 03-18, 2 of the hardest in an under players of the last 20 years in Priddis and Kerr, and then 3 players who were known for excessive ducking/shrugging in the late 00's - early 10's you can account for 871/919 total, or 95% of the differential.

We've been a low tackle count and high marking team for pretty much all of this period, we've been playing zone defense opposed to man on man for a long time now, we had a period of time with a lot of ducking/shrugging. It's really not that difficult to explain.

In the light of this information, what do you guys think is more likely?

A. We have the best crowd in the world (but why don't other passionate one eyed fan bases offer similar benefits ?)

B. There is an AFL/umpire conspiracy to give west coast, and only west coast a leg up.

C. We've had a few particular personnel throughout that period that contributed largely and a varying, but a consistently high differential gamestyle due to things like low tackle counts, high marking, intercepting, zoning over man on man, and not many players known to be "unsocial".

My guess is option C, if anyone would like to break down the home vs away differential of all teams over that period it'd be much appreciated as it would help us all determine if west coast only have a good differential relative to other teams at home, or if it's consistent away as well. I suspect we will be near the top, if not the top of the away differential table as well, which would support the gamestyle/personnel argument.

D. It is a self-perpetuating cycle of players playing for free kicks*, being paid them, and the crowd cheering and booing (particularly booing) to a different standard than the average AFL crowd - so that over time a different standard applies at West Coast home games and everyone players and supporters and umpires comes to understand it sub-consciously.

*for all his greatness as a ruckman Dean Cox was in inveterate flop, I recall this sort of thing being turned into memes and posted on BigFooty during his playing days

 

[javaguice]

All good vic lads, you'll get a grannie at the MCG, get a good run with the umpires, and the rest of the stats for the season will be irrelevant.

Lets get this trending vic teams, #metoo.

 

[bh90210fan]

hahahahahahhahahahahaha lmao. Either youre taking the piss or just really dont understand how sound works.

I imagine sound works better in a full stadium as opposed to one that’s only 1/3 full whenever you play a team from another state.

Maybe your supporters should get out of bed on the weekends

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Those who think home crowds don't have an effect on umpiring are kidding themselves.

Almost nobody is saying that. The differential isn’t reducible to home ground advantage, and every club enjoys different levels of advantage against different sides.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

D. It is a self-perpetuating cycle players playing for free kicks*, being paid them, and the crowd cheering and booing (particularly booing) to a different standard than the average AFL crowd - so that over time a different standard applies at West Coast home games and everyone players and supporters and umpires comes to understand it sub-consciously.

*for all his greatness as a ruckman Dean Cox was in inveterate flop, I recall this sort of thing being turned into memes and posted on BigFooty during his playing days

Yeah I don't think our crowd is any different to yours, the crows, the tigers, pies etc. I was at the saints game on the weekend and it was genuinely one of the most quiet games I've been to. What are we, chardonnay sippers or loud rabid ferals? I don't think there's enough of a difference between our crowd and any other passionate fan base for that to be a valid explaination. Every team has a better differential at home than away, and I suspect we would be near the top, if not the top of the away differential rankings as well.

Cox definitely flopped a bit, more towards the end of his career as his skill and physicality dropped off, but regardless opposition rucks infringed upon him a lot to try and compete with him.

 

[kranky al]

hahahahahahhahahahahaha lmao. Either youre taking the piss or just really dont understand how sound works.

Well im a qualified sound engineer - why dont you start with me.

Please explain to me why your club - the supposed biggest afl club going - cant drown out an interstate teams crowd at etihad which is strikingly similar in design to perth stadium - albeit with a roof which will serve to contain and magnify the effect of cheers/ boos etc.

Ill wait

 

[javaguice]

I remember a time when this game was tough.....people didn't whinge about the umps because that was a cop out.

But back then, KPD's like Rance didn't dive like girls, and rucks were allowed to tackle.

What a time to be alive.

Lets just get a possession arrow going like they do in basketball so we can keep this crucial stat even.

This really is a game for fanbois now.

Listen to yourselves.

 

[Altum Volantes]

Based on last year in isolation, after our 7 games at Kardinia Park, we finished with 166 free kicks for and 148 free kicks against. Although the crowd is far more tame down here than over the border I imagine.

Much higher risk of an umpire copping a handbag from over the fence though.

 

[CD Xbow]

The issue is not the fact West Coast leads the count, it is by how much they lead that is significant ( or very significant **).

Naturally there will be teams who win more free kicks due to the way they play or for other legitimate reasons leading to them naturally having a positive diffferential most of the time. But having said that West Coast's numbers are so extraordinary it leads tin hatters like myself to believe there is something more going on.

IMHO I think it's simply a matter of a disproportionate number of 50/50 calls going their way when they play at home. The data is striking as it shows consistency over a number of years. It is hard to see if you're a West Coast fan because a 50/50 call going your way is seen as the correct decision. Its hard for opposition because they get fewer of these 'correct' decisions.

Agree it's a factor.. There is good evidence that the stronger the home ground advantage is, the more 'influenced' the umpires are likely to be. It's not the only factor......

The anomoly for me in all of this is Fremantle. If West Coast was the only team playing in Perth at that ground, I could accept - vocal crowd, play the ground well, up n about at home, blah blah blah... etc..... But Freo also have a large and vocal supporter base, they play the same ground, and over the past at least 5 - 10 years they have been good at home. Why doesn't Freo get this same type of free kick count? If it's based on noise/crowd, whatever, then why is it exclusive to West Coast? This is the part that makes no sense to me. I've never been to a game in Perth, only seen them on TV, but surely the West Coast crowd isn't 10x louder than the Freo crowd? And it has nothing to do with the way West Coast play, contested, open or anything.. because why don't they get this same free kick disparity when they play away? A game a few weeks ago (I think it was against Hawthorn?) West Coast comprehensively lost the free kick count.. back in Perth the next week they smash the Saints in the free kick department. Their game plan cannot be entirely different from when they are home/away. There is something very bizarre about this situation, and I honestly have no idea why West Coast gets this huge lobsided free kick count in Perth. It makes no sense to me whatsoever.

That's easy, the umps are only human and hate the way Freo plays. Karma for trying to ruin football as a spectacle. It could be as simple as the volume of the noise is louder because of the nature of the stands and how crowd noise projects to the centre of the ground. Perhaps it's something whacky like WC has had a lot of Blondes. Interesting to investigate further.

 

[legend166]

Funnily enough I was just posting about this on the Swans board yesterday. Here are the numbers split for home and away since 2010 inclusive:

Swans home = +103
Swans away = -260

Out of that +103, 87 comes from 2010-2012. Since then we're only +16 compared to -160 away. I went back as far as FootyWire had free kick stats (1998), and in 20 years we've never won the free kick count away from home over the season which is crazy.

Eagles home = +545 (!)
Eagles away = +7

Brisbane home = -5
Brisbane away = -225

Adelaide home = +220
Adelaide away = -132

Freo home = +125
Freo away = -292

Port home = +265
Port away = -234

 

[Retzlaff]

I want to see the same table for home games only and away games only

 

[Corkintheocean]

I can see where you are coming from. Tossing a fair coin can come up with unusual results in the short term.
That logic would work except for the fact there are underlying differences between clubs. For example, do you think as time approaches infinity each club will win 1/18 of premierships or does the fact the grand final is held at the MCG skew the results.

My off the cuff belief is that, provided the AFL continues to run a cap and acts in a manner perceived as to be working towards equalisation - then I think yes, every team would trend towards a 1/18th premiership share. Of course, my opinion of a decent sample size to bear this out may be closer to 100,000 years, so you're not going to be around to disprove me!

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

Funnily enough I was just posting about this on the Swans board yesterday. Here are the numbers split for home and away since 2010 inclusive:

Swans home = +103
Swans away = -260

Out of that +103, 87 comes from 2010-2012. Since then we're only +16 compared to -160 away. I went back as far as FootyWire had free kick stats (1998), and in 20 years we've never won the free kick count away from home over the season which is crazy.

Eagles home = +545 (!)
Eagles away = +7

Brisbane home = -5
Brisbane away = -225

Adelaide home = +220
Adelaide away = -132

Freo home = +125
Freo away = -292

Port home = +265
Port away = -234

Interesting, thanks for that. West coast doing so well away from home suggests that it's not just a Perth crowd thing, makes the gamestyle and personnel argument seem more likely.

 

[citizen-erased]

Based on last year in isolation, after our 7 games at Kardinia Park, we finished with 166 free kicks for and 148 free kicks against. Although the crowd is far more tame down here than over the border I imagine.

they would probably need to ramp it up a bit, but i reckon you'd get a similar effect if they did.
95% of the crowd all backing the one team.

 

[Orange Agent]

If there was the full years of stats, us and Swans would be bottom 2. There is more to this than playing styles.

 

[raymond35]

The reason is that our umpires are incompetent. The more blatantly incompetent they are ( razor Ray, Nichols ), the more promotion and attention they get. Actually changing the result of matches gets them more congratulations, and constantly and bafflingly favouring the same teams nonstop for years seems to help as well.
Were the umpires who won the eagles the matches against North Melbourne or Port Adelaide in recent years sacked? No. No they weren't.

 

[Coaster2012]

Ok, now instead of the usual "they are cheats" tripe that I hear. What is the real reasoning for this? Since the umpires have changed over the last 15 years. Could it just be that Perth crowds boo everything that they influence the umps? If so, good on em! Got to love that home crowd advantage that WC fans have created. Other fans should be envious.

 

[Ron The Bear]

the way west coast fans deny unbiased data, they must all be climate change deniers, flat earthers and anti-vaxxers. No sensible person can look at a free kick differential twice as big as the next best, and believe that there is not some underlying issue causing such a large discrepancy.

It would explain their angst about the grand final being played at the MCG.