Freo in close games

[chaosball32]

The emotion of Saturday has now subsided a bit, whilst I’m still pretty peeved we blew a top 2 spot on the ladder in such a tight season, there’s no use dwelling on it

What has become a worrying trend this year is our inability to close out tight games. We were in winning positions late in the Carlton, Port, Sydney and Hawthorn games and went into shutdown mode too early in each of these games and it cost us in 3 out of 4 of these games and very nearly cost us against Sydney too. We more or less ran out of legs in the latter 2 games but the Hawks absolutely steamrolled us in the last 10 minutes, particularly in the stoppages and the contested ball, our defenders couldn’t keep up with the repeat entries and started losing almost every 1-on-1, and our lack of urgency when we did have possession and instead opting to chip around our d50 for several minutes didn’t exactly instil confidence. We rolled over and died, sort of like in the Bulldogs game, but the difference was this game was very much still alive

Just wondering what has changed since 2022, the reason we were a top 4 team that year wasn’t our ability to finish off teams but rather how good we were in the late and tight game situations, it’s how we beat Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn and GWS and the Bulldogs in the EF, partly thanks to our supreme fitness and our ability to not lose our heads and go into safe and conservative mode. That has since seemed to have evaporated. I know the list turnover has been somewhat significant since then but our older guys aren’t stepping up and our younger guys aren’t dealing with the pressure, and then you get what happened Saturday

 

[s_wd6]

Dogs game early this year was close right until the end and we stormed home, and we managed to come back hard against Pies. It is a problem though but I wonder if there'd be any difference between how we finish at home vs away from home. Haven't had too many close home games this year to test it out though.

 

[FreoGirl]

there was a similar thread earlier this season that argued the opposite...

 

[hoss]

I don't know. I think we were very unlucky v Carlton and probably very lucky v Sydney and possibly Collingwood. If games are close, it opens the result up to all sorts of variables, like umpires, a bounce of the ball etc. There's been a few games where we just haven't capitalised and put on some scoreboard pressure when we've been dominant. Even Hawthorn, we should of buried them by 3/4 time.


On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[BStaff17]

Ain't good for the heart rate

 

[pK75]

The difference is Darcy in the ruck at the end of games, in all 3 loses he wasn’t their to steady the ship and give our mids first look, the two he was there we came from behind to snag a draw and held on to win (just) in the 3 he wasn’t the opposition’s ruck got on top late and gave them the contested game advantage to get over the top of us.

 

[ilikepotatoes]

If we are talking games decided by less than 2 goals than we are trending positively:

Loss to Carlton by 10
Loss to Port by 2
Draw to Collingwood
Beat Sydney by 1

So that's the positive point of view on things.

 

[Purple Suit]

If we are talking games decided by less than 2 goals than we are trending positively:

Loss to Carlton by 10
Loss to Port by 2
Draw to Collingwood
Beat Sydney by 1

So that's the positive point of view on things.

Hawks game was closer than the final scoreline but so was the Saints where we got home. So they both cancel each other out.

Winning close games is definitely helped by experience so i think we are only going to get better with our list profile in the next few years.

 

[yakamoto]

Losses were frustrating because we appeared to have control of the games until the closing few minutes. Defensive errors( player, umpire) which earlier would have passed with only momentary abusive comment, become analysed to death.
It must be said though that we only have one plan for kickins in the closing moments. Ryan bomb to wing. Don’t ever remember winning the next possession to get the ball beyond the centre. Do remember opposition marking or winning from ball up or throw in.
It’s probably more difficult than I imagine.

 

[DeadEyeJye]

Yeah I think it's a major chink in the armour - if you look at the Carlton, Port, Hawks and 2nd Sydney (which we were lucky to get away with) games we just can't control the game when we are trying to protect a lead.

 

[DocT]

2-3 years ago I read a convincing analysis of the 'Good teams win tight games' trope. It concluded that in fact the proportion of games won by <12 points by each team was similar to the proportion that they won by >12 points. So GTWTG is BS. So the reality is: Good teams win games. Surprise!

Then along came Collingwood. But even they are falling back to the pack in the tight games. So it looks like McRae really did hit upon some advantage that worked for them in the tight scenarios, but now the other sides have caught up with them by and large.

 

[Purple Suit]

2-3 years ago I read a convincing analysis of the 'Good teams win tight games' trope. It concluded that in fact the proportion of games won by <12 points by each team was similar to the proportion that they won by >12 points. So GTWTG is BS. So the reality is: Good teams win games. Surprise!

Then along came Collingwood. But even they are falling back to the pack in the tight games. So it looks like McRae really did hit upon some advantage that worked for them in the tight scenarios, but now the other sides have caught up with them by and large.

Collingwood also had the oldest list last year with the most experience and very few injuries. Basically the same as Geelong the year before. I think that bodes well for close finishes.

Collingwood also only got through the finals by the skin of their teeth. Therefore I still recon they got lucky but the AFL media don't write narratives around luck, they just make winners the all conquering geniuses that had it all under control the whole time.

 

[arsesmart]

Ahh yoof.

 

[BStaff17]

Yeah not good.

Not good at all.

 

[Joao]

JL said we've been practicing it.

Need to ramp that up because it's not showing.

 

[Docker82]

Hawks game was closer than the final scoreline but so was the Saints where we got home. So they both cancel each other out.

Winning close games is definitely helped by experience so i think we are only going to get better with our list profile in the next few years.

The saints game was one of the most one-sided ‘close’ games ever then. It was inaccuracy alone that kept St Kilda in it. We were the better team by a long way.

There’s a significant difference in how well we do in close games home vs away IMO. Even the Sydney game we were the ones that couldn’t defend a lead except for a missed shot after the siren. We haven’t lost a close game at home - even the Collingwood was different as we were the ones coming from behind.

 

[Purple Suit]

The saints game was one of the most one-sided ‘close’ games ever then. It was inaccuracy alone that kept St Kilda in it. We were the better team by a long way.

There’s a significant difference in how well we do in close games home vs away IMO. Even the Sydney game we were the ones that couldn’t defend a lead except for a missed shot after the siren. We haven’t lost a close game at home - even the Collingwood was different as we were the ones coming from behind.

We had no Fyfe, Walters & Pearce. Lost our oldest player from each line. I recon that is a bigger issue than home or away.

 

[BStaff17]

Margins where its 12 points or less our record under each coach looks like this.

Gerard Neesham 7W - 8L - 46.67%
Damien Drum 3W - 5L - 37.50%
Ben Allan 0W - 1L - 0.00%
Chris Connelly 16W - 11L - 59.25%
Mark Harvey 9W - 12L - 42.85%
Ross Lyon 24W - 1D - 15L - 61.25%
Justin Longmuir

Justin Longmuir

Age

43

Ht

196cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.4

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

4.5

3star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.4

3star

G

1.2

4star

No current season stats available

D

7.0

2star

K

3.6

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

2.0

3star

T

0.6

3star

G

0.6

3star

13W - 2D - 11L - 53.84%

Before this year JL had the best record was 12W 1D 6L at 65%

So the close losses have only crept in this year. And haven't been a long term issue.