Geelong - back to back?

[Rich01]

Geelong beat Port in Melbourne

Port beat Geelong in Adelaide

Yep, hence highlighting my point about the cats needing to finish top 4 to win the flag.

 

[Taper]

Don’t think it is better than Ports or Collingwoods best. Not Brisbane on their home deck. But you could get lucky and play to your absolute potential while these teams have an off day, granted. I just don’t think you can sustain it for four matches.

If we continue playing like we did last night, there's no reason why we can't beat all those sides at their best.
Brisbane are undefeated at the Gabba this year.
Beat them there next week and the lid might start showing signs of coming off.

 

[Crusty Demon]

If we continue playing like we did last night, there's no reason why we can't beat all those sides at their best.
Brisbane are undefeated at the Gabba this year.
Beat them there next week and the lid might start showing signs of coming off.

Becomes a monumental task to win from outside the top 4. Only one or two teams have ever done it. Timing their run well, and i personally think they are the best challenger to the Pies, but lose to the Lions next week and Dees beat Crows at the G, and i struggle to see a top 4 spot for the Cats. Not saying they can't win it from 5th, but the odds are stacked against.

 

[PhatBoy]

Becomes a monumental task to win from outside the top 4. Only one or two teams have ever done it. Timing their run well, and i personally think they are the best challenger to the Pies, but lose to the Lions next week and Dees beat Crows at the G, and i struggle to see a top 4 spot for the Cats. Not saying they can't win it from 5th, but the odds are stacked against.

Our issue might be - aside from the logistical ones like needing to knock off a top four side interstate to keep up with 5th or higher - that our so called ‘best’ is generally limited to bursts.

That first quarter last night was incredible but we, and I suspect most sides, can’t maintain that intensity for too long. When we drop down a gear from that level or what we showed in the last quarter against Melbourne etc, it’s like we don’t have a fourth gear. It’s flat out or just flat. Often not much in between

 

[Footy Smarts]

Becomes a monumental task to win from outside the top 4. Only one or two teams have ever done it. Timing their run well, and i personally think they are the best challenger to the Pies, but lose to the Lions next week and Dees beat Crows at the G, and i struggle to see a top 4 spot for the Cats. Not saying they can't win it from 5th, but the odds are stacked against.

Brisbane's choke against the Dees really hurts our top 4 chances. Winning from outside the 4 is possible but very tough.

 

[Taper]

Becomes a monumental task to win from outside the top 4. Only one or two teams have ever done it. Timing their run well, and i personally think they are the best challenger to the Pies, but lose to the Lions next week and Dees beat Crows at the G, and i struggle to see a top 4 spot for the Cats. Not saying they can't win it from 5th, but the odds are stacked against.

Bulldogs 2016 the only team to have won a premiership from outside the top 4 since the introduction of the current finals system. We've never won the flag from outside the top 2 under any finals system.

 

[Crusty Demon]

Our issue might be - aside from the logistical ones like needing to knock off a top four side interstate to keep up with 5th or higher - that our so called ‘best’ is generally limited to bursts.

That first quarter last night was incredible but we, and I suspect most sides, can’t maintain that intensity for too long. When we drop down a gear from that level or what we showed in the last quarter against Melbourne etc, it’s like we don’t have a fourth gear. It’s flat out or just flat. Often not much in between

Yep, and not surprising with injuries and a slow start to the season. Best being limited to bursts doesn't bode well if finishing outside of top 4 tbh. Need Dees or Lions to trip up i reckon.

 

[windyhill]

Playing your perennial punching bags/witches hats should not count.

 

[Crusty Demon]

Bulldogs 2016 the only team to have won a premiership from outside the top 4 since the introduction of the current finals system. We've never won the flag from outside the top 2 under any finals system.

Yeah it's gonna be a tough ask, but i just don't see the teams above you being as strong as most years. Port, Lions and Dees all very gettable by the Cats

 

[Taper]

Playing your perennial punching bags/witches hats should not count.

To be fair most teams have been our punching bags over these last 20 years.

 

[windyhill]

To be fair most teams have been our punching bags over these last 20 years.

Agreed. But the cats actually feast on us. We do not lay a glove.

 

[MC Extra Dollop]

Yeah it's gonna be a tough ask, but i just don't see the teams above you being as strong as most years. Port, Lions and Dees all very gettable by the Cats

I think we can beat anyone. But even with the current run of solid form, nothing to me has suggested that this team can win an elimination final, then win three games in a row against three of Brisbane, Melbourne, Collingwood and Port (with one or two interstate trips).

I'm just going to enjoy the rest of the season for what it is, I'm not considering a premiership. If we hold court at GMHBA with the remaining games, I think we stay in the eight. If we win those and also snag a win against Brisbane (Gabba), Collingwood (MCG), or St Kilda (Marvel), we'll probably hold around our current position. If we do better than that, maybe we're a punchers chance of pinching fourth spot.

We haven't won an elimination final since about 2005 IIRC, so it would be nice to see a mini run from that spot for a change.

 

[Crusty Demon]

I think we can beat anyone. But even with the current run of solid form, nothing to me has suggested that this team can win an elimination final, then win three games in a row against three of Brisbane, Melbourne, Collingwood and Port (with one or two interstate trips).

I'm just going to enjoy the rest of the season for what it is, I'm not considering a premiership. If we hold court at GMHBA with the remaining games, I think we stay in the eight. If we win those and also snag a win against Brisbane (Gabba), Collingwood (MCG), or St Kilda (Marvel), we'll probably hold around our current position. If we do better than that, maybe we're a punchers chance of pinching fourth spot.

We haven't won an elimination final since about 2005 IIRC, so it would be nice to see a mini run from that spot for a change.

You'll win all your home games. You'll beat the Saints. Would have to beat either Lions or Pies to be a genuine top 4 chance.

 

[Osho]

Does a dynasty team lose a point for choking a prelim (18), or 2 points for choking a GF (08)?

Did Hawks choke or just unlucky in 12?

 

[Osho]

Don’t think it is better than Ports or Collingwoods best. Not Brisbane on their home deck. But you could get lucky and play to your absolute potential while these teams have an off day, granted. I just don’t think you can sustain it for four matches.

Port are being over rated in my opinion. Pies Cats have highest ceiling. Next are Dees. After that it relies on a 1970like wobble by faves for them to win the whole thing.

 

[Footy Smarts]

You'll win all your home games. You'll beat the Saints. Would have to beat either Lions or Pies to be a genuine top 4 chance.

We need to win 2 games more than Melbourne or 3 games more than Brisbane to make the top 4. Even if we win every game there's a decent chance Melbourne don't drop 2 more from here. So we could miss out even if we win every game. I don't see any chance of us making the top 4 if we drop a game.

 

[Rich01]

If we continue playing like we did last night, there's no reason why we can't beat all those sides at their best.
Brisbane are undefeated at the Gabba this year.
Beat them there next week and the lid might start showing signs of coming off.

Essendon were flat and you showed them up on your home deck for that they were.

It’s a massive step up to beating the Lions, Port or Pies on their home deck, and most likely having to play an extra game than them for the privilege to do so.

 

[BigVic]

They look good and are the team I am scared of facing. Back to back is likely to happen

 

[Hamingja]

Bulldogs 2016 the only team to have won a premiership from outside the top 4 since the introduction of the current finals system. We've never won the flag from outside the top 2 under any finals system.

I think outside of the covid year in the hub that we have never won an interstate final. That's the big issue. Would need some luck with the finals draw to get semi/prelim at the G v Melbourne and Collingwood to be a chance IMO.

 

[Coach_Required]

Season just got interesting. Peak Geelong is the only team I can see knocking off Collingwood right now.
If any team can do it from 5th it's Geelong.

 

[PhatBoy]

I think outside of the covid year in the hub that we have never won an interstate final. That's the big issue. Would need some luck with the finals draw to get semi/prelim at the G v Melbourne and Collingwood to be a chance IMO.

It’s true but we haven’t had to play a lot of them either. Port and the Crows in Adelaide were both huge assignments.

 

[The Casey Cat]

Brisbane's choke against the Dees really hurts our top 4 chances. Winning from outside the 4 is possible but very tough.

Yea not getting in the 4. Will have to be done from 5th. Extremely unlikely but can definitely win a couple of finals.

 

[Footy Smarts]

I think outside of the covid year in the hub that we have never won an interstate final. That's the big issue. Would need some luck with the finals draw to get semi/prelim at the G v Melbourne and Collingwood to be a chance IMO.

I don't think Brisbane in the 2020 PF is any less meritorious than any other away final.

We've only played 7 interstate away finals and gone 1-6.

Those 6 losses include the Nick Davis game in Sydney, 1998 away to Adelaide with the Leigh Colbert non mark and 2020 away to Port where we kicked ourselves out of it in the first half despite dominating (Hawkins kicked 0.5 and 1 out in the full). So we've been close many times.

The real key is that when you play finals away it's normally because you are the worse team. You're expected to lose. So the question is whether Geelong are actually a better team than Port or Brisbane to give them a real chance. Right now the answer looks to be no but maybe with a bit more continuity in their best players that could change.

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

If we continue playing like we did last night, there's no reason why we can't beat all those sides at their best.
Brisbane are undefeated at the Gabba this year.
Beat them there next week and the lid might start showing signs of coming off.

With due respect you beat a barely top 8 side last night. Sure you spanked them and made them look 2nd rate but I doubt the teams above you would go to water under pressure like Essendon did. All the teams above bring their own heat to the battle. Port did a few weeks back and they gave you a touch up. Wouldn't just expect your ramped up heat and pressure is going to work on everyone in the finals. The great teams absorb it and give some back

 

[Taper]

I think outside of the covid year in the hub that we have never won an interstate final. That's the big issue. Would need some luck with the finals draw to get semi/prelim at the G v Melbourne and Collingwood to be a chance IMO.

I saw a thread on here saying we've never won a final in SA against Port or the Crows. We'll probably have to beat Port in SA in the finals.

Our record interstate this year hasn't been great either. Only win came against West Coast in gather round and despite the form we're in, we'll be massive underdogs against Brisbane at the Gabba next week.