Review Geelong + Chris Scott make another Prelim at Ports expense

[rocker_oz33]

Over on the Crows board, a clever crow made a funny one (vid?) referring to NO TEETH.
I'm not hi tech enough to know how to copy it and paste here.

Someone with skills go over and get it ..lol

 

[moond0g]

A couple of thoughts on last night's game, now I've had a minute to come down (still on a bit of a high, honestly).

• Game plan from Scotty was top notch, especially in attack. That quick, head height ball that came in so often, which was just tapped over the back of the contest to one of the smalls looping around the back, absolutely superb. Figured them out, smashed them.
• Stewie comes back in next week, presumably for Mullin. If SDK comes back in, who does he replace? The defence mix last night was perfect.
• Further to the above, I reckon Blitz's best spot at the moment is down back, and pinch-hitting in the ruck.
• Small forwards were great - Miers, Mannagh, Stengle, and Closey. So dangerous.
• Neale is playing amazing at the moment, pulled in some fanstastic marks, and fits into our system and structure beautifully. Hawkins isn't coming back, I reckon.
• As has been said a million times, but can't be said enough, Humphries' disposal is beatiful, so calm and composed and pinpoints his kicks so well.
• Props need to be given to our stalwarts down back, Kolo & Jenry. Solid.
• Further, I'm falling more in love with Stanley as he reaches his twilight. We all know he's stuffed and done, but he's still out there competing and trying. Warrior for our club.
• Bowes is growing on me, tries his heart out.
• Atkins played really well last night, as with his usual effort, his composure & skill also shone last night.
• Duncan can't run any more, but still gets it on his boot well enough. His last year, or one more?
• Lastly, I'm starting to see glimpses of why the club rates Mullin so much. Composure & skill is growing, and he's got a bit of pace and grunt in the meantime.

I wont mention Danger, Cameron & Holmes, they don't need mentioning.

Still think there's a chance they roll they dice on SDK in the ruck, drop Stanley and keep Blics primarily as a defender.

 

[moond0g]

If you're a gun midfielder why wouldn't you consider the Cats?

All parts of the field are being regenerated. There's still the strong culture and leaders. Our mid 20s players are showing good signs they will keep the veteran standards fairly high.

Really we "just" need a gun midfielder or two, then someone to replace Cameron. If you might be one of those players, why not give the GFC a look?

Agree, we're an obvious choice if you're a gun mid looking for a new home (or a serviceable ruck).

On the second point though, I reckon most teams would probably go alright if they added 2 gun mids and a Jeremy Cameron replacement though lol.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

It's hard not to just sit back and smile.

I look like the smart mouthed, cream fed cat on the outside



But on the inside

 

[CabWesty]

People get stuck into Chris Scott about his percentage of finals wins. It's about 40%.

To win from 5-8, you have to win four games = 100%
To lose in the GF from 5-8, you've gone 3 from 4 = 75%.
From 5-8, if you bow out in the PF, you've gone 2 from 3 = 66%
From 5-8, if you bow out in the SF, you've gone 1 from 2 = 50%
From 5-8, if you bow out in the EF, you're 0 for 1 = 0%. That's the outcome for two finalists.
To win the GF from 1-4, you can either win three from three (100%) or three from four (75%)
To lose in the GF from 1-4 you're typically 2 from 3 (66%) or 2 from 4 (50%).
From 1-4 to bow out in the PF, you've either won 2 from 3 (66%) or 1 from 3 (33%)
From 1-4 to bow out in the SF, you're 0 from 2.
To lose in the GF from 5-8, you've gone 3 from 4 (75%).

EF losers = 0%
SF losers could be 50%, could be 0%
PF losers could be 66%, could be 33%
GF losers could be 75%, could be 66%
GF winner could be 100% or 75%

If a team wins through to the GF from 5-8, the losing teams that were in 1-4 will typically have a lower win percentage too.

You don't get games against WC or NM to pad your stats. If you're out early one year, you then have to win 2 or 3 to get back to near 50%.

Let's look at a team that's on the rise and fall over 6 years.
First year, eliminated at the EF. 0 from 1
Second year, finishes fourth, but goes out in straight sets. 0 from 3
Third year, finishes third and loses the GF after dropping the QF. 2 from 7. At this point only 28%. (If they won the GF, they'd have a 42% win rate, but had only gone deep into the finals in one year.)
Fourth year, finishes top, wins QF, PF and GF. 5 from 10. King of the mountain, guided the team up, and an overall win percentage of 50%.
If your fifth year reverts to a straight sets loss, all of a sudden you're 5 from 12 and you've dropped to 42%.
Year 6 finish 5-8, out in the EF. 5 from 13. 38%.

To be long term competitive in finals over a decade, and have a percentage win rate in the 40s, is a damn sight better than those teams that come out of nowhere, win a couple, get a finals win percentage of 50 or more and disappear out of the 8.

When your win rate has settled at 40% over 20 games, winning one more only boosts it by 1.5%.
One flag in 4 years, 2 grand finals, and only a 50% win rate.

What about those teams that regularly finish 5-8, and get knocked out in the EF or SF. Their coaches might have a finals win rate of only 25-30%.

From 2011 to 2023 the coaching has been as follows:
Year / Position end of home and away / Finals result / Games won vs lost / ongoing %ge / Premier and their position at end of home and away
2011 / 2 / Premier / 3-0 / 100 / G2
2012 / 6 / EF / 0-1 / 75 / SS3
2013 / 2 / PF / 1-2 / 57 / H1
2014 / 3 / SF / 0-2 / 44 / H2
2015 / 10th / H3
2016 / 2 / PF / 1-1 / 45 / WB7
2017 / 2 / PF / 1-2 / 43 / R3
2018 / 8 / EF / 0-1 / 40 /WC2
2019 / 1 / PF / 1-2 / 39 / R3
2020 / 4 / GF / 2-2 / 41 / R3
2021 / 3 / PF / 1-2 / 40 / M1
2022 / 1 / Premier / 3-0 / 46 / G1
2023 / 12th / Coll 1

See, it's easy to have a high win % in finals if you win the GF the first year you coach.

Take out the "oh, you inherited a team" whingers and in the premiership drought between 2012 and 2021, despite getting to finals 10 years out of 11, Chris Scott had a 7-15 win/loss ratio for a 32% success rate. We were always competitive but never quite there.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Never Tear Us Apart...

But also don't want to miss the last drinks call either

Surely its time they shelve the INXS stuff?
Cringeworthy ...

 

[Cursed Cat]

Always good to see Cairns kids make it so it's why I always watch him closely in his AFL games.

What do you do in Cairns?

work at the private hospital ...

 

[CatToTheFuture]

What would of you said the crowd numbers been? 80% Port 20% Geelong?

Nah not that many. Every row had maybe 1-2 of us. Adelaide Oval is very echoey though, so you can be a minority and still be very loud.

The crowd number of 50k+ seems right. Barely a seat empty in the second quarter. A lot roomier in the 4th though

 

[Strange Cat]

What’s this obsession from opposition to blame Geelong sustain success on the KP home games?

****ing imbeciles

 

[rocker_oz33]

Has anybody posted this..

 

[Zouz Kitty]

The ship of Theseus sails again!

Perfect analogy

 

[Play it Sam]

Someone with skills go over and get it ..lol

Have just invited them to post it here. One last favour (we did squish their mortal enemy) before they tell me to go jump.

 

[rocker_oz33]

Have just invited them to post it here. One last favour (we did squish their mortal enemy) before they tell me to go jump.

Cho chop

 

[Zouz Kitty]

You had me until just cries. Thinking lower down.

 

[winty]

Where is our dear winty ?
Missed him tonight + his stats

I'm currently in country NSW, and the Internet at the place I was staying last night was about as useful as Charlie Dixon.

Hey Ken,

Premierships aren’t won in May…

View attachment 2102063

Fun fact: from the 11 minute mark of the 2nd quarter of that game, we outscored Port 31.26.212 to 11.19.83 over the next 6 and a bit quarters.

 

[Play it Sam]

Surely its time they shelve the INXS stuff?
Cringeworthy ...

Can't be any worse than the crap we churn out.
Except for the Touhy jig.

 

[winty]

What are the odds of us playing Brisbane in the Prelim and the Swans in the GF like we did a couple of years ago?

 

[Zouz Kitty]

I'm currently in country NSW, and the Internet at the place I was staying last night was about as useful as Charlie Dixon.



Fun fact: from the 11 minute mark of the 2nd quarter of that game, we outscored Port 31.26.212 to 11.19.83 over the next 6 and a bit quarters.

Internet is so dodgy in NSW New England, I have Telstra for internet + Optus for phone, even then it can be intermittent.

May I ask where in country NSW?

 

[mcwilrob]

Port fans are obliterating poor old Esava on their own board.

We absolutely reamed them in the trade there....

And we all know that Ratagol-error was not the answer for us (or them it seems) which is why we let him go. Has the physique but just does not have the "footy smarts" to be a high level AFL player.

 

[winty]

Internet is so dodgy in NSW New England, I have Telstra for internet + Optus for phone, even then it can be intermittent.

May I ask where in country NSW?

Spent last night in Temora. Staying over the weekend in Cowra.

Just remembered the last time I was cruising around NSW was back in 2022. Hopefully that's an omen.

 

[cats_09]

I'm currently in country NSW, and the Internet at the place I was staying last night was about as useful as Charlie Dixon.



Fun fact: from the 11 minute mark of the 2nd quarter of that game, we outscored Port 31.26.212 to 11.19.83 over the next 6 and a bit quarters.

We scored 10 points too many across those 6 quarters...

212 - 83 = 129

 

[supahoops]

"Likely Saturday September 21 at 7:30pm at the MCG" - source.

Interstate team and we should be pushing for 1520 Saturday afternoon.

 

[catters05]

Still think there's a chance they roll they dice on SDK in the ruck, drop Stanley and keep Blics primarily as a defender.

Not sure, I thought Stanley was good last night.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

Spent last night in Temora. Staying over the weekend in Cowra.

Just remembered the last time I was cruising around NSW was back in 2022. Hopefully that's an omen.

Beautiful part of NSW

 

[Strange Cat]

What are the odds of us playing Brisbane in the Prelim and the Swans in the GF like we did a couple of years ago?

Personally I hope port somehow makes it and we get a repeat 119