Geelong, Hawthorn and Sydney dominance - is there a problem?

[Crazy John]

There is no question that these are the big 3 sides of modern footy.

They share 8 of the last 10 flags between them, and 9 of the last 10 Grand Finals have featured at least one of these sides.

We had West Coast compete in the 2005-06 Grand Finals, and Collingwood compete in the 2010-11 Grand Finals, but both sides declined rapidly afterwards.

West Coast haven't returned to being an on field power since, and the jury remains out on Collingwood and whether they return to power like Hawthorn did after two mediocre seasons in 2009-10.

Geelong, despite their straight sets exit from the finals, won't be falling away anytime soon. Mitch Clark has nominated the Cattery as his preferred destination, and he will fill a big hole in Geelong's forward line, which has hampered them over the past 2 years or so.

Sydney, well we know they picked up the two biggest free agents over two years, and despite a disappointing Grand Final display, they will remain a powerhouse on the field for some time to come.

Hawthorn are well positioned to give the three peat a real shake, with Sewell likely to be their only loss, and he is no longer in their best 22 anyway. The other veterans in Mitchell, Hodge, Burgoyne and Gibson are vital cogs to the side, but they are playing some of their best footy in their twilight years. The Hawks are the best in the business at recruiting from other clubs, and their fans have every right to be confident in the club's ability to replace these veterans when the time comes, just as the club has replaced the likes of Franklin, Young, Campbell, Croad, Crawford, Gilham, Brown, Williams etc in recent years.

Port Adelaide look like the only club that is likely to pose a threat to this trifecta in the short term.

North Melbourne just aren't good enough, Fremantle are likely to fall down the ladder, and the rest are just making up the numbers.

There hasn't been constant dominance like this by the same clubs since the 80s when Hawthorn, Carlton and Essendon were running the show.

My question is what can the other clubs do to stop the dominance of the Cats, Hawks and Swans?

Should they all take a leaf out of Port Adelaide's book, who went from winning 3 games in 2011, to losing a Preliminary Final by 3 points in 2014?

 

[DardySingh360]

These things happen in cycles. In another 10 years I'm sure there will be 3 or 4 different sides who dominate. I'd prefer we just let the seasons run their natural courses rather than further compromising the competition.

I'm interested to hear your reasoning behind Geelong sticking around and Freo falling down the ladder by the way, as well as North "not being good enough."

 

[vide0n]

I guess everyone else just has to get better.

 

[Marlowe]

All other 15 clubs: "Sweep the leg."

 

[Catfish Alley]

In a few years it will just be Suns vs Giants.

 

[lemons123]

In the past 10 seasons only 8 clubs have played in Grand Finals. That means there have been 20 spots available. So it could be argued there is a problem. But what is the solution?

 

[theboxmike]

I guess everyone else just has to get better.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I reckon this board needs more threads relating to Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney.

 

[beta_condition]

Since 2007 there's been 10 teams which have had a realistic shot at a flag at one stage or another, competition is fine as it is right now.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

A myriad of factors have contributed to the somewhat stagnation of the competition in recent years, allowing certain sides to stay at the top and others at the bottom. The introduction of free agency has allowed top clubs to top up their lists, often at the expense of clubs that are performing poorly, in order to fill holes and therefore remain in contention. Another cause, as has been talked about quite a bit, is the introduction of the expansion clubs, as they soaked up a lot of the top talent from the drafts over a two-year period.

You are overstating the dominance of the clubs a bit, though. The Cats haven't played in a GF since 2011, so despite staying around the top of the ladder and playing finals, they haven't really dominated. Their era was 07-11, which, for the level of talent they had, was a pretty decent run. I expect them to go down rather than up next year.

Sydney rarely misses the finals, but it's not as if their period of contention has been 2005-2014. They had a successful period in which they played in back-to-back GFs and won a premiership in the mid-00s, and through adept list management and coaching, made another GF and premiership in 2012 as part of a different era, which has spanned up until now.

Hawthorn's list management has been superb, and they managed to rejuvenate their list over the 2009/2010 period after their 2008, but fell out of contention during that period, so again not a sustained period of dominance. The Hawks' current run has been impressive, though, and it's hard to see it coming to an end soon. I think they came good and further capitalized on a period in which, for the reasons outlines above, stagnation has occurred, and have thus been able to cement themselves as the top contender over the last three years.

We have seen two very good, very dominant sides emerge over the last ten years, which is partly why it looks like the premierships are being shared by a certain few. We could question why two teams were able to become as dominant as Hawthorn and Geelong have been during their respective periods, and whether that is a result of certain elements of the AFL environment, but those sides built their list via different means, so I don't think that's the case. I think it was a result of smart recruiting and being ahead of the competition in certain elements at the time.

That's not to say other good sides haven't been around during the period that Geelong, Hawthorn, and Sydney have been dominant in. As you mentioned, the Pies were good for a couple of years with a young side. St. Kilda was up there from 2008-2010, and was very unlucky not to win a flag in that period for how good it was.

Other clubs will come good, and they should do next season. As the drafts become less compromised, the talent will disperse more evenly, and clubs will start to get their heads around managing contracts and players better in the age of free agency. Port Adelaide looks good, and is a very young, talented team with a great coach. I also wouldn't write off North just because of the way they exited the finals. They've looked formidable against the top sides over the last couple of years, have a wealth of talent, and with a decent pre-season and some smart recruiting, they could be challenging next year. I wouldn't write off Fremantle just yet, either.

I know that it's easy to do so with the finals still fresh in our minds, but I wouldn't be so quick to label some sides as no chance or completely disregard them. There are plenty of examples of rapid ladder ascents, surprise finals appearances, and even surprise flags, based on a side's previous season, in recent history. Geelong certainly didn't look like becoming a "dominant" club for the next several years after its 2006 season.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

Competition is fine, It is already doing most things in its power to make the flags spread out anyways so what do you suggest?

 

[AlibiMonday]

I can't really talk for Hawthorn and Geelong, but Sydney completely re-energised it's list in the 2009 off season by managing to bring in Kennedy, Mumford, McGlynn, Jetta, Reid, Rohan. Of course there were good trades and picks throughout most of this period. Hawthorn (2004) and Geelong (2001) had similar 10/10 off season periods.

I think if a club is set up right (good development culture and coaches) and it nails 3-4 picks (ie. selects the best of the remaining available given their pick position) + trades in a single off-season, they should push for a top 4 within 3-5 years and stay there for a further 5.

 

[TBoyleSuperstar]

I personally think it's great.

Bugger the rest, just keep this up for a few more teams. I love watching us in Grand Finals and winnings flags, and our rivalries with the Cats and Swans is what footy is all about.

 

[ManWithNoName]

If they're still up there in 5 years, yes.

For now, no.

 

[Kwality]

Since 2007 there's been 10 teams which have had a realistic shot at a flag at one stage or another, competition is fine as it is right now.

Yep, what is the perceived problem? As a West Coast supporter, one of the clubs written off by the OP, I'd say we've been in the mix, had good years, poor years & when you appoint a rookie coach itusually takes a while, so there is no gnashing of teeth here.

Building a competitive list over recent years has proven difficult but clearly some clubs have excelled.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

As as has been said, it's a cycle thing. Today Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney, in 5 years time it could be another three. I think it's important to have trend setters at the top setting a benchmark for others.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

the key is taking your chance, in the last Decade Hawthorn & St. Kilda have both had 5 top 4 finishes.... The hawks 3 flags the poor old saints 0

 

[Leather Poisoning]

the key is taking your chance, in the last Decade Hawthorn & St. Kilda have both had 5 top 4 finishes.... The hawks 3 flags the poor old saints 0

Saints could have gone back to back with a bit of luck and composure.

 

[Chopperdave]

Melbourne, Carlton, Brisbane, Essendon, Richmond. They are the only 5 clubs (not including gc+gws) that have not at least been close to having a shot at a premiership since 2005. People forget that teams like Port, Freo, Dogs, North, Adelaide and St Kilda all made multiple Prelims in the last 10 years and St Kilda, Port and Freo have made a GF. Many of those teams were a kick or so away from a Grand Final appearance. So I don't think the dominance is as great as people think.

 

[Footyfan85]

No, no problem

 

[thetank]

The only problem is Sydney being able to establish/retain dominance because of CoLA. Other than that, Geelong and Hawthorn dominated through establish brilliant nucleuses in the early-mid 2000s, and are reaping the benefits now.

 

[juss]

The wheel will turn, as it always does.

 

[thetank]

The wheel will turn, as it always does.

A bit slower for St Kilda, Ric, Melb and WB though...

 

[Caj]

The only problem is Sydney being able to establish/retain dominance because of CoLA. Other than that, Geelong and Hawthorn dominated through establish brilliant nucleuses in the early-mid 2000s, and are reaping the benefits now.

We haven't seen the long term effects of free agency yet, but its clear that the strong teams such as the three you have listed will benefit. It is hard to see how teams with less resources like the Bulldogs will ever get themselves into a position where they can attract the star players. Hopefully there will be some change to the Free Agency rules or we could see a Premier League type situation.

In response to the tank, I'd suggest that the with level of incompetency at the Dees over the last 10 years, even if they had a COLA they'd still be floundering down the foot of the ladder

 

[juss]

A bit slower for St Kilda, Ric, Melb and WB though...

Saints and Dogs were flag contenders only a few years ago. Tigers and Demons are starting to get things right.