Geelong, Hawthorn and Sydney dominance - is there a problem?

[The Final Word]

The wheel will turn, as it always does.

Indeed,

12 years ago the Cats couldn't lure Jade Rawlings, Daniel Bradshaw or Scott Lucas down the highway. In 2004 we finally got someone who was willing to come in Brad Ottens and spent 2 first round picks on him, such was our desperation to get someone, anyone, to join us.

 

[Hawkk]

These things happen in cycles. In another 10 years I'm sure there will be 3 or 4 different sides who dominate. I'd prefer we just let the seasons run their natural courses rather than further compromising the competition.

I'm interested to hear your reasoning behind Geelong sticking around and Freo falling down the ladder by the way, as well as North "not being good enough."

Between 2005 and 2014:
3 flags Hawthorn ('08, '13, '14)
3 flags Geelong ('07, '09, '11)
2 flags Sydney ('05, '12)
1 flag Collingwood ('10)
1 flag West Coast ('06)

Between 1995-2004:
3 flags for Brisbane Lions ('01, '02, '03)
2 flags for Adelaide ('97, '98)
2 flags for North Melbourne ('96, '99)
1 flag for Carlton ('95)
1 flag for Essendon ('00)
1 flag for Port Adelaide ('04)

Between 1985-1994 (tail end of VFL / new AFL era)
4 flags for Hawthorn ('86, '88, '89, '91)
2 flags for West Coast ('92, '94)
2 flags for Essendon ('85, '93)
1 flag for Carlton ('87)
1 flag for Collingwood ('90)

The 2005-2014 era is very similar to 1985-1994 in terms of premiership spread.

2005-2014 is actually worse when you look at 2007-2014 in isolation (Geelong and Hawthorn have shared in 6 of 8 flags and qualified for 7 of 8 GF's)

The extended run of both clubs has basically coincided with the introduction of GWS and Gold Coast - who basically cradled 3 drafts between them (2010-2012)

The opening poster has a point to suggest its merely cyclical is a rather lazy full back position. In this period of great equalisation the AFL isn't geared towards 3 clubs sharing in 8 of the 10 flags

The Hawks and Cats were clubs that were both up at the same time at the best time in AFL history (1990 forward) and have reaped the rewards accordingly

 

[sherb]

The AFL should pre-allocate a flag to a different club each year, running on an 18 year cycle.

 

[Hawkk]

The AFL should pre-allocate a flag to a different club each year, running on an 18 year cycle.

The competition is geared to do this

 

[HolyWars]

I see no problem

*Sitting up on Cloud Nine.

 

[Tasmaniac]

Going to be very interesting to see how Free Agency affects this over the next few years.

There's going to be some serious grief from the other clubs in the AFL if the top few clubs draw a significant proportion of the top talent available through FA.

 

[eldorado]

Should they all take a leaf out of Port Adelaide's book, who went from winning 3 games in 2011, to losing a Preliminary Final by 3 points in 2014?

Hmmmm...sounds like a crazy strategy to me, but...

I guess there could be something to it, I suppose.

 

[thetank]

In response to the tank, I'd suggest that the with level of incompetency at the Dees over the last 10 years, even if they had a COLA they'd still be floundering down the foot of the ladder

Probably, what's your point?

Melbourne being bad does not disprove the theory that Sydney has had an advantage through the CoLA.

 

[Tulip]

If it continues next season then I would say so.

All three clubs were lucky enough to be good when FA and GC/GWS came in. The lower sides were restricted in drafting and they have been able to pick off players at will from those same teams.

Same with Collingwood, except they were stupid enough to burn it.

 

[F_therest]

The top teams of this era have definitely been helped by the fact GC & GWS have taken all the top talent and then FA has been introduced around the same time.

But still, some do it better than others. Hawthorn & Sydney have done it the best, followed by Geelong.
You could argue Freo and Collingwood were at the top in this time but are on the way down.

And Port has managed to rise during this period.
So its not like its impossible.

 

[Mr Magic]

There is no question that these are the big 3 sides of modern footy.

They share 8 of the last 10 flags between them, and 9 of the last 10 Grand Finals have featured at least one of these sides.

We had West Coast compete in the 2005-06 Grand Finals, and Collingwood compete in the 2010-11 Grand Finals, but both sides declined rapidly afterwards.

West Coast haven't returned to being an on field power since, and the jury remains out on Collingwood and whether they return to power like Hawthorn did after two mediocre seasons in 2009-10.

Geelong, despite their straight sets exit from the finals, won't be falling away anytime soon. Mitch Clark has nominated the Cattery as his preferred destination, and he will fill a big hole in Geelong's forward line, which has hampered them over the past 2 years or so.

Sydney, well we know they picked up the two biggest free agents over two years, and despite a disappointing Grand Final display, they will remain a powerhouse on the field for some time to come.

Hawthorn are well positioned to give the three peat a real shake, with Sewell likely to be their only loss, and he is no longer in their best 22 anyway. The other veterans in Mitchell, Hodge, Burgoyne and Gibson are vital cogs to the side, but they are playing some of their best footy in their twilight years. The Hawks are the best in the business at recruiting from other clubs, and their fans have every right to be confident in the club's ability to replace these veterans when the time comes, just as the club has replaced the likes of Franklin, Young, Campbell, Croad, Crawford, Gilham, Brown, Williams etc in recent years.

Port Adelaide look like the only club that is likely to pose a threat to this trifecta in the short term.

North Melbourne just aren't good enough, Fremantle are likely to fall down the ladder, and the rest are just making up the numbers.

There hasn't been constant dominance like this by the same clubs since the 80s when Hawthorn, Carlton and Essendon were running the show.

My question is what can the other clubs do to stop the dominance of the Cats, Hawks and Swans?

Should they all take a leaf out of Port Adelaide's book, who went from winning 3 games in 2011, to losing a Preliminary Final by 3 points in 2014?

For starters the Cats dominance is over despite what the umpires think!

Hawthorn will follow in a 3-4 years and let's see how Swans go without cola!

 

[Mr Magic]

There is no question that these are the big 3 sides of modern footy.

They share 8 of the last 10 flags between them, and 9 of the last 10 Grand Finals have featured at least one of these sides.

We had West Coast compete in the 2005-06 Grand Finals, and Collingwood compete in the 2010-11 Grand Finals, but both sides declined rapidly afterwards.

West Coast haven't returned to being an on field power since, and the jury remains out on Collingwood and whether they return to power like Hawthorn did after two mediocre seasons in 2009-10.

Geelong, despite their straight sets exit from the finals, won't be falling away anytime soon. Mitch Clark has nominated the Cattery as his preferred destination, and he will fill a big hole in Geelong's forward line, which has hampered them over the past 2 years or so.

Sydney, well we know they picked up the two biggest free agents over two years, and despite a disappointing Grand Final display, they will remain a powerhouse on the field for some time to come.

Hawthorn are well positioned to give the three peat a real shake, with Sewell likely to be their only loss, and he is no longer in their best 22 anyway. The other veterans in Mitchell, Hodge, Burgoyne and Gibson are vital cogs to the side, but they are playing some of their best footy in their twilight years. The Hawks are the best in the business at recruiting from other clubs, and their fans have every right to be confident in the club's ability to replace these veterans when the time comes, just as the club has replaced the likes of Franklin, Young, Campbell, Croad, Crawford, Gilham, Brown, Williams etc in recent years.

Port Adelaide look like the only club that is likely to pose a threat to this trifecta in the short term.

North Melbourne just aren't good enough, Fremantle are likely to fall down the ladder, and the rest are just making up the numbers.

There hasn't been constant dominance like this by the same clubs since the 80s when Hawthorn, Carlton and Essendon were running the show.

My question is what can the other clubs do to stop the dominance of the Cats, Hawks and Swans?

Should they all take a leaf out of Port Adelaide's book, who went from winning 3 games in 2011, to losing a Preliminary Final by 3 points in 2014?

For starters the Cats dominance is over despite what the umpires think!

Hawthorn will follow in a 3-4 years and let's see how Swans go without cola!

 

[Mr Magic]

Saints and Dogs were flag contenders only a few years ago. Tigers and Demons are starting to get things right.

Dogs haven't been contenders for 40 years at least by my recollection!

 

[go_the_dockers]

I wonder how Free Agency will affect the non Vic clubs.

It appears most free agents not from WA are reluctant to head to WA so it will make it very difficult for us to top our list up to push for a flag, while Vic clubs have 50% of FA which come from that state and most other FA from others states are prepared to head to anywhere in Australia.

Sydney had the COLA which allowed them attract free agents, I wonder if they will still be able to attract free agents in the future.

 

[JackOutback]

Is there a problem? Not if you're a Cats, Swans or Hawks fan, I guess.

Or a Suns or Giants fan in coming years.

 

[Billyc]

I don't see a problem (obviously).

Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney have recruited well and managed their lists. They have good cultures so players want to go there. But it's not as though other sides haven't stood a chance to win a premiership. St Kilda should have won in 2009 and could have won in 2010. Collingwood fell away inexplicably after 2011, Fremantle played in a grand final last year and Port Adelaide missed a grand final by a goal this year (and played in one in 2007). The Doggies played prelims for several years and North, while not really at that level, played in a prelim this year.

Some manage things very well (Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney) and some manage things very poorly (ie. Melbourne, Carlton). But it's not the system that is to blame, other than Sydney's concessions of course.

 

[Aeon05]

Dogs haven't been contenders for 40 years at least by my recollection!

They lost a prelim final in 2009 to the saints by 7 points despite having more shots on goal.
Could have gone very differently

 

[Shoei]

West Coast probably would have sustained a long period at the top (2005 gf, 2006 gf, semi-final elimination in extra time 2007) but crazy circumstances saw the club lose both Chris Judd and Ben Cousins at the end of 2007 and Daniel Kerr's body was pretty much shot from 2008 onwards.

 

[MightyHawks]

The most accurate test of how even the competition is over a period of time is preliminary final appearances

If you are alive on Prelim Final weekend then you are top 22% of the competition (top 25% before the Suns appeared)

Lots of Preliminary Finals are decided by less than 2 goals. The Crows and Bulldogs certainly have had plenty of opportunities to play in Grand Finals... its not the AFLs fault that they never won any of the Prelims

From 2005-2014
Geelong 6
Hawthorn 5
Sydney 5
Collingwood 5
St Kilda 4
Adelaide 3
West Coast 3
Bulldogs 3
Port Adelaide 2
Fremantle 2
North 2

So 11 out of the 16 clubs that have competed in the last 10 years have made 2 or more Prelim Finals in the decade

(No one was expecting GWS or GC to make a Prelim yet considering their long term recruiting strategy)

That leaves 5 clubs
Brisbane - made 4 consecutive Prelims in the years directly before our 10 year sample & didn't regenerate the list during 2001-2005
Carlton - years of poor recruiting in rounds 2 and 3 of the draft yet got within a goal of a Prelim in 2011
Richmond - was a basket case, have a relatively young list that should be capable of making a Prelim possibly as early as next year
Melbourne - basket case, poor recruiting, development, list management and coaching...
Essendon - might have made a Prelim in the last 3 years if there'd been no issues with ASADA

That said Free Agency is working to keep the same clubs in the 8 every year

Having just made a Prelim, North seem to now be attracting Free Agents. If they play their cards right they should be a top 8 side for the next 4-5 years

 

[worthy]

I think the compromised drafts and the introduction of the expansion clubs have played a part for some of the middle of the road teams that just needed that really good player or 2 to maybe give them the boost they need to challenge, some other clubs haven't for one reason or another traded well.

 

[Hawkk]

The most accurate test of how even the competition is over a period of time is preliminary final appearances

If you are alive on Prelim Final weekend then you are top 22% of the competition (top 25% before the Suns appeared)

Lots of Preliminary Finals are decided by less than 2 goals. The Crows and Bulldogs certainly have had plenty of opportunities to play in Grand Finals... its not the AFLs fault that they never won any of the Prelims

From 2005-2014
Geelong 6
Hawthorn 5
Sydney 5
Collingwood 5
St Kilda 4
Adelaide 3
West Coast 3
Bulldogs 3
Port Adelaide 2
Fremantle 2
North 2

So 11 out of the 16 clubs that have competed in the last 10 years have made 2 or more Prelim Finals in the decade

(No one was expecting GWS or GC to make a Prelim yet considering their long term recruiting strategy)

That leaves 5 clubs
Brisbane - made 4 consecutive Prelims in the years directly before our 10 year sample & didn't regenerate the list during 2001-2005
Carlton - years of poor recruiting in rounds 2 and 3 of the draft yet got within a goal of a Prelim in 2011
Richmond - was a basket case, have a relatively young list that should be capable of making a Prelim possibly as early as next year
Melbourne - basket case, poor recruiting, development, list management and coaching...
Essendon - might have made a Prelim in the last 3 years if there'd been no issues with ASADA

That said Free Agency is working to keep the same clubs in the 8 every year

Having just made a Prelim, North seem to now be attracting Free Agents. If they play their cards right they should be a top 8 side for the next 4-5 years

From 1995 to 2004

North Melbourne 6 times
Brisbane Lions / Bears 6 times
Essendon 4 times
Adelaide 3 times
Carlton 3 times
Port Adelaide 3 times
Collingwood 2 times
Geelong 2 times
Melbourne 2 times
Richmond 2 times ( :eek )
St Kilda 2 times
Sydney 2 times
Western Bulldogs 2 times
Hawthorn 1 time

Take away Fitzroy and the only teams not to make a PF were surprisingly West Coast and Fremantle

The spread of premierships and PF's were wider in 1995-2004 than they have been in the 2005-2014 period

The last 8 years has been a throw back to the 1985-1994 period

 

[JackOutback]

From 1995 to 2004

North Melbourne 6 times
Brisbane Lions / Bears 6 times
Essendon 4 times
Adelaide 3 times
Carlton 3 times
Port Adelaide 3 times
Collingwood 2 times
Geelong 2 times
Melbourne 2 times
Richmond 2 times ( :eek )
St Kilda 2 times
Sydney 2 times
Western Bulldogs 2 times
Hawthorn 1 time

Take away Fitzroy and the only teams not to make a PF were surprisingly West Coast and Fremantle

The spread of premierships and PF's were wider in 1995-2004 than they have been in the 2005-2014 period

The last 8 years has been a throw back to the 1985-1994 period

Disappointing thing there is the Eagles made the finals every year from 95 to 99 and again in 2002-04. A period of being good but never good enough.

 

[Fat Tony!]

There is clearly something wrong with the competition settings at the moment. The whole draft, free agency and salary cap system needs an overhaul. Players are finding it too easy to leave bottom clubs for clubs in the premiership window.

 

[NUFC Tiger]

From a viewing perspective, it is a bit tedious seeing the same clubs up there fighting for the flag/vying off in grand finals but the reason they are up there is due to being elite at developing talent and rejuvenating their respective lists.

It's up to the rest of the competition to try and close the gap/surpass those clubs because with free agency, players wanting to move 9 times out of 10, will be looking to move to a club that can potentially contend for a flag.

 

[Furn2]

One problem with the system is that if you're a side that's just off the pace and not particularly young there isn't really a mechanism to improve.

The Bulldogs of few years back is a good example. Just needed a gun tall forward but without any low draft picks to trade you have to give up quality players to get quality which ends up making you about the same.

Maybe FA will help but maybe trading future picks needs to be looked at.