Opinion Geelong v Sydney GF. Neutral supporter prediction/analysis

Who will win the flag

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    263
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The natural thing to do is deem Geelong favourites based on how the respective preliminary finals played out. However, I remember thinking Sydney would win the 2014 GF comfortably enough on the back of their resounding prelim win and Hawthorn winning their prelim by the skin of their teeth. As it was, Hawthorn won easily and had the game wrapped by half time.
 
I do, regardless if we're there or not. I usually watch at Fed Square or Yarra Park. Would just be fun to see supporters from all teams wearing their colours. Like why don't more do it, it's a day for all footy fans not just fans of teams playing..
 

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Way too much discussion on the type of prelims.

Going into those games the big concern is not having played enough with two byes in three weeks... makes no sense for 120 mins later to have played "too much"
 
maxiboy238 said:
There is no correlation I think but is it better to come off a hard fought close prelim or cruisy prelim
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Most of the results in recent years where one side has had a close game in the prelim there was a clear better team in the Grand Final and that team won it. Although I agree that Geelong's best is better than Sydney's, the strength (and weakness) of the Sydney side has been their unpredictability and (at times) inconsistency, even within games. This is the hardest Grand Final for me to pick a margin for a while as we've had some almost foregone conclusion Grand Finals of late with only 2018 and 2016 being a toss of the coin going in, although 2016 I did have the bulldogs as slight favourites.

I suspect Geelong will win by a couple of goals but can see any result being possible except Sydney winning by plenty. Grand Final pairing does show the importance of form leading into September though with the best 2 sides over the last 2 months playing in the Grand Final.
 
momentbymoment said:
View attachment 1511516

I hear Nick Davis is a late in to replace Reid.
Swans by 3 ….
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Get Out Leave GIF
 
PhatBoy said:
Conversely you haven’t shown any reason why it is, either.

Of our current best 22 I would say that Stengle, Hawkins, Cameron, Duncan, Miers - oddly but it’s true - and maybe Dangerfield in every aspect beyond general kicking are what I would call ‘gifted’ players.

Selwood: has great game sense and his skills ARE underrated but his not a talent-reliant player.
Stewart: personally I think he’s a freak but if his natural talent was that ingrained he wouldn’t have slipped through the net for so long.
Atkins: no explanation needed
Close: good hard runner with good game sense and reasonable skills but not a brilliant talent
Holmes: athletically excellent but again not a freak across the board skills wise he’s just matured very quickly and knows his role beautifully
Kolo/Bews: neither are gifted
Tuohy: a beautiful long kick but not blessed with a lot of other physical attributes that make him a gifted player
Stanley: for his size he’s an athletic machine and he DOES have that streak of mercurial football in him that manifests occasionally but he’s not there for his talent
Blicavs: well we all know what you think of him
Rohan: could not have less game sense if he deliberately tried
Jack Henry: thought about putting him in the talented list but he’s not quite that good
O’Connor: no explanation needed
C Guthrie: great contributor but he’s not gifted
Z Guthrie: almost a copy of his brother in that for 3-4 years looked incapable of cementing a spot so unlikely he’s in the talented bracket
Parfitt: makes his name as a tough tackling inside player


I don’t think we suffer from a ‘lack’ of top end talent but it isn’t the standout feature of why we win a lot of games
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This is the main reason why its these two teams playing in the Grand Final. There's only so many games that can be won on the back of 1 or 2 star players. Also, odds are that once you get past the first week of finals you're generally playing against teams that have just as many star players. For sustained success across a season and to reach a grand final, eventually the lesser name role players have to perform their role. Throughout the year this has been the ethos that both coaches have consistently driven.

Over the weekend we had 3 sides that named teams with players that had proven via their form that they belonged in the team and another that went for name players that looked better on paper. Ultimately, the name players failed to have an impact and the form players playing their role continued to do so. Teams need naturally talented game changer type players to win premierships but it’s the role players in a team of 22 that will get them their. In simple terms, game changers win grand finals for their. team, role players get them there.
 
Seeds said:
Which is weird given Victorian's usually barrack for the interstate club when it's a vic club vs a interstate club. Perhaps the exception to this rule is West Coast. But that would be it.

Interstate clubs think they have a rivalry with Vic clubs when none actually exists. Except with West Coast.
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This has more to do with the AFL Media and the rubbish they spout as well as the in built advantages some Victorian clubs have than anything else. Every August we hear the AFL Media espouse the line that certain Victorian teams can't be overlooked as a flag threat because of their experience playing at the MCG in front of big crowds. I agree that as a business that's job is to make money it makes sense for the AFL to have the bigger Victorian teams that will draw a crowd play in the marquee games and timeslots but it doesn't make it less fair on the other teams. 2 games have been postponed because of covid when featuring Victorian clubs, yet West Coast were required to play. I realise that those were the rules teams agreed to and aren't arguing at the decision just pointing out the double standards that are common in the AFL.

We hear the weeknight shows focus on the large Victorian clubs news with little mention of the smaller clubs unless it's to comment on how they are imploding. We see and hear that the President's of Victorian clubs are invited in to discuss the direction the game is moving whilst other clubs are informed of the decisions over the phone. All non Victorian clubs will have to leave their home state at least 11 times during a season to win a premiership, no Victorian based side has to do this. Many past AFL greats have spoken about the slight disadvantage interstate teams have with Mick Malthouse going so far as to call it a 4 goal advantage when he was coaching West Coast. We're frequently reminded that no interstate team can win a premiership with a poor record at the MCG against quality opposition but Victorian teams have won premierships with a poor record outside Victoria against quality opposition. I know that these all make sense from a viability and business sense but that doesn't make it fair.

When previewing the teams at the start of the season Mark Robinson told his fellow panellists to hurry up and move on to the next club as he, his mates and the general public talking footy at the pub don't care about that team. The team in question was Gold Coast and, while he may be correct, it was unprofessional of him to say so and help feeds the us vs Victorians mentality. Another is the in built advantage certain Victorian clubs have with the MCG hosting the Grand Final each year (barring another global pandemic rendering that option impossible) the average Victorian based team will play a lot more games at the MCG than a non Victorian team. It makes sense from a business perspective to hold the Grand Final at the venue with the most money making potential but it doesn't make the decision fair.

As a born and raised Victorian that has moved interstate, these are the reasons and arguments I have heard.
 

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Personally, I'll be barracking for Geelong as I'd like to see Dangerfield get a flag (don't understand the broad dislike of him), but I'm tipping Sydney to win by 5-6 goals.

Whilst I think Geelong have improved, I think Sydney play a style of game (similar to Collingwood and Richmond of past years) that will bring too many Geelong players unstuck.

Also I think Sydney will be fast starters again in the GF and Geelong under Chris Scott are notoriously slow off the mark. Also to that point, where both sides are relatively equal on talent (Geelong perhaps slightly favoured in that area) I think Longmire has Scott covered in the coaches box. Happy to be proven wrong, but there's just too many examples of Geelong sides coached by Chris Scott freezing like a deer in the headlights in finals because Plan A isnt working.

Geelong's backs are excellent, but I think its achilles heel will be Sydney's small forwards (Papley, Heeney). They rely on opposition bombing it long and high like Brisbane did routinely on Friday night, but Sydney won't grant them that luxury.

Much has been made of Geelong's great forwardline - I think Cameron is exceptional and if Geelong are to win he'll need to kick 3-4 IMO. Hawkins remains unreliable for me in set shots, he relies on a ton of supply and again I dont think Sydney will be so generous.

Midfield battle will be interesting but again, I'll be inclined towards the Swans winning that battle. Hickey has really impressed me this finals series and I'd back him to beat Stanley in the taps. Key will be whether Sam Reid gets up and if not that might sway this in Geelong's favour.

Lastly, I think Franklin might just play a blinder in what may be his final match.

I think Sydney will shoot out to an early lead and be hard to catch from there.
 
My tip....Brian Taylor will be nauseating....Swans in a tight one. Luke Parker to back up the taunting of Dylan Shiel with the match winner and Norm Smith.
 
TurnOnTheBrightLights said:
My tip....Brian Taylor will be nauseating....Swans in a tight one. Luke Parker to back up the taunting of Dylan Shiel with the match winner and Norm Smith.
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Will BT really be commentating?

On the day I won't care as I'll be at the game but I don't want to have to deal with that shit on the replay.
 
I think Geelong are too good, but hoping for a competitive game. Would love to see Buddy run rampant.
 
bigfatcorn said:
Geelong are serial choke artists, and a bit soft.

Sydney grinds them out for a easier than expected win.
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Lol.

Grand final record for Geelong in the last two decades:
3-2

Grand final record for Sydney:
2-3

In terms of pedigree, achievements, finals records, etc etc - there’s barely a struck match between the two sides.
 

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Opinion Geelong v Sydney GF. Neutral supporter prediction/analysis

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