No Oppo Supporters General AFL and other clubs discussion thread. **Opposition fans not welcome**

[Pessimistic]

Just quickly ran a ladder predictor exercise while procrastinating at work this morning. I have Hawthorn finishing a game clear on top of the Giants, Swans, Cats and Crows, while the Eagles and Dogs in sixth and seventh, three games behind 2nd-5th, and North finishing eighth, a game behind the Eagles and Dogs, and two games clear of St Kilda.

Pos   Team     Pl  W  D  L    %  Pts
--------------------------------------
  1    HAW     22 18  0  4 122.9 72
  2    GWS     22 17  0  5 139.5 68
  3    SYD     22 17  0  5 137.7 68
  4    GEE     22 17  0  5 132.3 68
  5    ADE     22 17  0  5 132.2 68
  6    WCE     22 14  0  8 122.8 56
  7    WB      22 14  0  8 112.2 56
  8    NM      22 13  0  9 109.0 52
  9    STK     22 11  0 11  92.4 44
10    PA      22 10  0 12 109.7 40
11    CWD     22 10  0 12  92.2 40
12    CAR     22 10  0 12  85.4 40
13    MEL     22  8  0 14  97.4 32
14    GCS     22  8  0 14  81.0 32
15    RIC     22  7  0 15  80.6 28
16    FRE     22  4  0 18  81.7 16
17    BL      22  2  0 20  65.4  8
18    ESS     22  1  0 21  61.5  4

That pits Hawthorn and Geelong in a qualifying final (probably Friday night at the MCG). The winner plays a Friday night preliminary final probably against the loser of the Giants-Swans qualifying final (whomever loses that qualifying final hosts the winner of the Eagles-Bulldogs elimination final in a semi-final, and the winner of that semi-final goes up against the Hawks).

Accordingly, if the season ends in this fashion, there's a strong chance that the Hawks play the Cats and Giants in the lead-up to a rematch of the 2014 grand final.

If the Cats knock off the Hawks in the qualifying final, then Hawthorn hosts the winner of the elimination final between Adelaide and North Melbourne at the MCG and then (assuming the Hawks win the semi-final) has to travel to Sydney to play the winner of the Giants-Swans qualifying final in a preliminary final.

percentage difference there is seven goals between GWS and Sydney, and not even a goal between Geelong and Adelaide.

Also had Cyril scored a point with his last kick at the SCG, It would be Sydney first, Hawthorn second on 70 points, followed by GWS, Geelong, Adelaide

Had he missed and hawks lost by 1, It would be Sydney 72, then GWS, Geelong, Adelaide, Hawthorn 68

 

[LuckyHawk]

Rule time: Lynch's kick after the siren appears to come off hands and through for a behind but no score is added for gold coast.
Don't know the rule exactly but thought it should have counted.

 

[Pessimistic]

Robbo still blathering on about tagging Sam Mitchell

 

[Pessimistic]

I hate to disagree, but I think "just winning" is for the first third of the season. In the last third we should ideally be doing some "unstoppable juggernaut" action.

We've been (including my own fine self) saying all season that we can kick it into higher gear later. Well, I think it's later. Either we start destroying some squads or we're not going to be lofting the holy grail come season end. We'll be too vulnerable to a great performance from another team.

I guess I came to think this during the game on the weekend. We've shown a whole lot of first gear this year, substantial second gear and a bit of third gear. Maybe a smidgen of fourth gear.

I'm hopefully not too doom and gloom, but we're in need of some top form practice. It's unreasonable to expect that we can pull top gear out of our backside in the post season when we haven't hit it in the whole regular season.

*sad face*

Cyril and Poppy were rested. assuming they come back refreshed, watch out Melbourne. that would be a fair description of 'top gear'

Maybe we can do some smashing the next three weeks and the Olympics will keep it under the radar

 

[LuckyHawk]

North's tall forwards will be a hard slog for us if we don't pressure the ball carrier. They've been especially good in their wins at generating space for them to lead into and delivering the ball to advantage. They get the added benefit that if they bomb it up high, the Browns etc are all able to take a contested grab too.

North's tells got hold of us last time but we mistakenly didn't play Brand, he'll be playing this time and he's going alright.

 

[JustKickIt]

North's tells got hold of us last time but we mistakenly didn't play Brand, he'll be playing this time and he's going alright.

There was no Hodgy down back that night either........ ;-)

 

[Blaze Storm]

Rule time: Lynch's kick after the siren appears to come off hands and through for a behind but no score is added for gold coast.
Don't know the rule exactly but thought it should have counted.

If it's "touched", and the kicker would have been attributed the point, then I think it's supposed to stand, if it's punched through and would have been called "rushed" it doesn't count.

That's my understanding, but I didn't see the kick to comment.

 

[LuckyHawk]

If it's "touched", and the kicker would have been attributed the point, then I think it's supposed to stand, if it's punched through and would have been called "rushed" it doesn't count.

That's my understanding, but I didn't see the kick to comment.

I get what you're saying. Stops the play where the kicker is 60m out with no chance so kicks it 45m to a Gibbo type
who punches it 15m through for a game winning point.

 

[MightyHawks]

Just quickly ran a ladder predictor exercise while procrastinating at work this morning. I have Hawthorn finishing a game clear on top of the Giants, Swans, Cats and Crows, while the Eagles and Dogs in sixth and seventh, three games behind 2nd-5th, and North finishing eighth, a game behind the Eagles and Dogs, and two games clear of St Kilda.

Pos   Team     Pl  W  D  L    %  Pts
--------------------------------------
  1    HAW     22 18  0  4 122.9 72
  2    GWS     22 17  0  5 139.5 68
  3    SYD     22 17  0  5 137.7 68
  4    GEE     22 17  0  5 132.3 68
  5    ADE     22 17  0  5 132.2 68
  6    WCE     22 14  0  8 122.8 56
  7    WB      22 14  0  8 112.2 56
  8    NM      22 13  0  9 109.0 52
  9    STK     22 11  0 11  92.4 44
10    PA      22 10  0 12 109.7 40
11    CWD     22 10  0 12  92.2 40
12    CAR     22 10  0 12  85.4 40
13    MEL     22  8  0 14  97.4 32
14    GCS     22  8  0 14  81.0 32
15    RIC     22  7  0 15  80.6 28
16    FRE     22  4  0 18  81.7 16
17    BL      22  2  0 20  65.4  8
18    ESS     22  1  0 21  61.5  4

That pits Hawthorn and Geelong in a qualifying final (probably Friday night at the MCG). The winner plays a Friday night preliminary final probably against the loser of the Giants-Swans qualifying final (whomever loses that qualifying final hosts the winner of the Eagles-Bulldogs elimination final in a semi-final, and the winner of that semi-final goes up against the Hawks).

Accordingly, if the season ends in this fashion, there's a strong chance that the Hawks play the Cats and Giants in the lead-up to a rematch of the 2014 grand final.

If the Cats knock off the Hawks in the qualifying final, then Hawthorn hosts the winner of the elimination final between Adelaide and North Melbourne at the MCG and then (assuming the Hawks win the semi-final) has to travel to Sydney to play the winner of the Giants-Swans qualifying final in a preliminary final.

What winning margins are you expecting for the Geelong v Essendon and Geelong v Brisbane matches

I'd be pretty confident the Cats will increase their current %

 

[Thaihawk]

Exciting four weeks of footy coming up. Let's hope sides 1-5 knock each other about while jostling for positions. In the meantime we just need to take care of business one week at a time.

I think we will win all four, and I know some think it would do us good to drop one before the finals, but I am sure this would go against Clarko's teachings. So let's just win our next 7 games.

 

[JustKickIt]

The Run Home for all contenders :
http://www.hawthornfc.com.au/news/2016-08-01/the-run-home-four-to-finals

 

[LuckyHawk]

Just read that Ricky Nixon has caught up with "old mate" Ben Cousins.
How on earth is Cousins going to get better and wonder how they're filing in their time?
I've had some sympathy for Cousins but its being quickly eroded.

 

[Pessimistic]

I get what you're saying. Stops the play where the kicker is 60m out with no chance so kicks it 45m to a Gibbo type
who punches it 15m through for a game winning point.

Save that play for eatra time golden point in the grand final

 

[threesixpio]

We'll be targeting specific games to lift a gear, I'd imagine. We'll be bringing it for North, West Coast and then definitely Collingwood as our main prep for finals.

That's pretty much all of them

 

[JoeHawk]

Geez just had look at the final 4 games and Norf plays 3 of the top 4 and 1 top 8, compared to the cats who plays all 4 bottom 8...
Cats could very well finish on top if othets above them keep losing

Also surprised to read in The Age that the Hawks v Norf match will be Norfs first game at the G this season. Is that so? I think even Eagles have played more games there than Norf this year.

 

[Off The Couch]

Also surprised to read in The Age that the Hawks v Norf match will be Norfs first game at the G this season. Is that so? I think even Eagles have played more games there than Norf this year.

Well at least north will have something to whinge about if they lose

 

[JoeHawk]

I am personally hoping for Adelaide to sneak into 4th. I fancy our chances against them at the MCG. I would love to see North knock out the Cats in their usual 'give our fans false hope' finals run.

Really? We barely beat them there earlier this year. They're going to be tough to beat no matter where.

 

[wallyt99]

Crows' run home is Lions at home (big win - I gave the Crows a 10 goal win), Dockers at Subiaco (win), the Showdown against Port Adelaide (win), and Eagles at Adelaide Oval (win).

Cats' run home is Bombers at Etihad (big win - I gave the Cats a 10 goal win), Richmond at the MCG (big win - I gave the Cats a 10 goal win), Lions at the Gabba (big win - I give the Cats a 10 goal win) and Melbourne (a comfortable 30 point win for the Cats).

Swans' run home is Port Adelaide at the SCG (30 point win), St Kilda at Etihad (30 point win), North Melbourne at Hobart (12 point win) and Richmond at the SCG (10 goal win).

Giants' run home is Suns at Carrara (10 goal win), Eagles at Spotless Stadium (30 point win), Fremantle at Spotless Stadium (10 goal win) and North Melbourne at Etihad (12 point win).

Having made those adjustments, I have the Hawks finishing top, Giants second, Cats third, Swans fourth and Adelaide fifth, with 0.1% separating the Cats from the Swans.

Its unlikely the season will go down without upset. I think North will prolly beat us or swans or both.

Best outcome for us would be

Hawks
Geelong
GWS
Adelaide
Syd.

If we won, and end up in a prelim vs. GWS at the MCG all the better. Then hope to see a Hawks Geelong GF.

Geelong or Sydney at the G prpbably would be our toughest week 1 final.

GWS up there would also be tough if we chalked a loss and they manage to host a prelim.

 

[JoeHawk]

I reckon Hawks will be very focused to beat Norf. There's a lot of genuine hatred between us and I can't see them letting this one slip as it will define our finals path. The loss may come against Swans. Of course assuming that we can overcome Melbourne and Collingwood.

Edit: I mean eagles not swans.

 

[BlackHawk72]

I reckon Hawks will be very focused to beat Norf. There's a lot of genuine hatred between us and I can't see them letting this one slip as it will define our finals path. The loss may come against Swans. Of course assuming that we can overcome Melbourne and Collingwood.

We aren't playing the Swans again, it's west coast.

 

[cryptor]

Also surprised to read in The Age that the Hawks v Norf match will be Norfs first game at the G this season. Is that so? I think even Eagles have played more games there than Norf this year.

Can we close the roof for them?

 

[Pessimistic]

Struck me how firrito is like pavlich


Minus the talent of course

 

[JoeHawk]

We aren't playing the Swans again, it's west coast.

Oops. My bad. Where did I get that from? That said I still think Eagles will be up for it and give us a hard time.

 

[JoeHawk]

Struck me how firrito is like pavlich


Minus the talent of course

And Pavlich is a fair hardball player whereas Firrito is an *rsehole.

 

[QuietB]

Oops. My bad. Where did I get that from? That said I still think Eagles will be up for it and give us a hard time.

Eagles are shot and we own them. North shot too. Id be more worried about Melbourne