No Oppo Supporters General AFL discussion and other club news

[peetoo]

Just since 2000 we've had:

Lyon x3
Roos
Malthouse x3
Pagan
Ratten
Sheedy
Worsfold
Bomber
Wallace
Eade

We've currently got Scott, Voss and Clarko in their second stints too. Might be some I'm forgetting, not sure.

How many years each in the 16x22 coach seasons?

Unless the total is over 25% statistically first club coaches aren’t doing better statistically

All I’m saying it’s a bit loose to say second time coaches only win 25% of the time

Now whether clubs who are managing thir affairs well also prefer to choose first time coaches is another take on it.
One things for sure, less well managed clubs have won zero flags

 

[Ned Ryerson]

All I’m saying it’s a bit loose to say second time coaches only win 25% of the time

It’s not loose - it’s the literal amount of times it’s happened in the AFL era.

 

[Buzz Hawk]

God I love Nat Edwards giving it to Barrett. He's so uncomfortable when she does and is desperately trying to cling to trading Mitchell and O'Meara was the wrong thing to do

Yeah, his “still 16th on the ladder” rejoinder to Nat doesn’t quite have the sting it may have once did.
He is a fool.

 

[barbster]

The Lions inexplicably ended up with the spoon in 1998 - their list was way too good to finish that low hence they sought out an experienced/motivator type of coach like Matthews to take them to the next level. The Lions in 1997 isn't remotely comparable to Norf in 2022.

Lions won the wooden spoon 1996, 1995 and finished 2nd last in 1994. They were definitely a basket case. I think you are truly underselling what Lethal did.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Yeah, his “still 16th on the ladder” rejoinder to Nat doesn’t quite have the sting it may have once did.
He is a fool.

16th on the ladder would be like a minor premiership for Norf.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Lions won the wooden spoon 1996, 1995 and finished 2nd last in 1994. They were definitely a basket case. I think you are truly underselling what Lethal did.

Not underselling just not making up facts like you are. They finished 8th in 1995 and 3rd in 1996 and played a prelim.

 

[barbster]

Not underselling just not making up facts like you are. They finished 8th in 1995 and 3rd in 1996 and played a prelim.

I thought we were talking about the Lions not Bears.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

I thought we were talking about the Lions not Bears.

Being that Leigh Matthews never coached Fitzroy that would have been silly of me. I may have mistakenly said Lions when they were still known as the Bears though. Either way - it was a complete aberration for that 1997 Brisbane side to finish dead last.

 

[KermitJagger]

Lions won the wooden spoon 1996, 1995 and finished 2nd last in 1994. They were definitely a basket case. I think you are truly underselling what Lethal did.

They didn't play. Fitzroy and the lions were fundamentally a different team, fairly disingenuous to say that we're underselling what Lethal did when you're using Fitzroy finishing places prior to adding the reigning Brownlow medallist along with a handful of other stars from the Bears.

 

[Brishawk]

Sorry I have no clue what you're asking. The first sentence doesn't make sense.

Simply put - KermitJagger stated that coaches in their second (or greater) dig as a coach don't generally get a flag for their side. Given that only 25% of coaches who have won a flag in the AFL era meet this definition he wasn't wrong.

But in the context of coaching a bottom of the ladder side, only coaches in their second or greater dig have coached a bottom side to a premiership. So he is wrong. And so are you. 0% of first time coaches, coaching a side after finishing last go on to coach them to a premiership in the afl era. I know numbers challenge you ned but surely you can understand a zero percent success rate.

 

[barbster]

Being that Leigh Matthews never coached Fitzroy that would have been silly of me. I may have mistakenly said Lions when they were still known as the Bears though. Either way - it was a complete aberration for that 1997 Brisbane side to finish dead last.

All good in hindsight.

Finishing last in 1998 may have had something to do with the Fitzroy merger. Coach John Northey was sacked mid season and they were definitely the basket case of the AFL at the time.
Have a look at the last half of their 1998 season.

 

[theiaofseed]

God I love Nat Edwards giving it to Barrett. He's so uncomfortable when she does and is desperately trying to cling to trading Mitchell and O'Meara was the wrong thing to do

Gutless avoided the question, just like when he first back tracked and said it was a "form of tanking", that Hawthorn might be trying to win but they deliberately sabotaged any chance of doing so, well Hawthorn's position is irrelevant, the only question around Hawthorn tanking is simply expectation vs result.

Would Hawthorn be a better team with Mitchell and JOM and the answer is clearly no.

Narrative has went from ~ Tanking to "a form of tanking" to well yea but you;re still 16th

 

[barbster]

They didn't play. Fitzroy and the lions were fundamentally a different team, fairly disingenuous to say that we're underselling what Lethal did when you're using Fitzroy finishing places prior to adding the reigning Brownlow medallist along with a handful of other stars from the Bears.

1996 Bears finished 3rd, they merge with Lions and are wooden spooners two years later. That second half of 1998 Lions were getting spanked by all comers. Something was up and they were definitely the basket case of the AFL, not sure how anyone can deny it.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

But in the context of coaching a bottom of the ladder side, only coaches in their second or greater dig have coached a bottom side to a premiership. So he is wrong. And so are you. 0% of first time coaches, coaching a side after finishing last go on to coach them to a premiership in the afl era. I know numbers challenge you ned but surely you can understand a zero percent success rate.

Kermit’s original point, which of course you’re rewording to suit the goalposts you shifted because that’s your constant go-to when arguing on here, was that more often than not the recycled coach doesn’t get the job done. You’ve subsequently added metrics to this point to suit your incorrect argument - again as you love to do because admitting you were wrong is for some reason something you’re incapable of doing.

Congrats - no first year coaches have taken a spoon winner to a premiership. Kudos on winning the argument that neither I nor Kermit ever put forward. Brilliant work, mate!

Also way to ignore Clarko taking a side that finished 15th to a premiership inside 4 years. Way to ignore Bevo taking a side that finished 14th and was a shambles off the field to a premiership inside 2 years. I’m sure you’ll conjure up some numbers though to defy those examples - oh all-powerful master of the digits!

So Kermit’s original point remains correct no matter what mathematical slant you want to put on it. The vast majority of AFL-era coaches aren’t coaches outside of their first club gig.

 

[Brishawk]

Kermit’s original point, which of course you’re rewording to suit the goalposts you shifted because that’s your constant go-to when arguing on here, was that more often than not the recycled coach doesn’t get the job done. You’ve subsequently added metrics to this point to suit your incorrect argument - again as you love to do because admitting you were wrong is for some reason something you’re incapable of doing.

Congrats - no first year coaches have taken a spoon winner to a premiership. Kudos on winning the argument that neither I nor Kermit ever put forward. Brilliant work, mate!

Also way to ignore Clarko taking a side that finished 15th to a premiership inside 4 years. Way to ignore Bevo taking a side that finished 14th and was a shambles off the field to a premiership inside 2 years. I’m sure you’ll conjure up some numbers though to defy those examples - oh all-powerful master of the digits!

So Kermit’s original point remains correct no matter what mathematical slant you want to put on it. The vast majority of AFL-era coaches aren’t coaches outside of their first club gig.

Its in the context of north’s decision to hire clarko. Stay on target ned.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

1996 Bears finished 3rd, they merge with Lions and are wooden spooners two years later. That second half of 1998 Lions were getting spanked by all comers. Something was up and they were definitely the basket case of the AFL, not sure how anyone can deny it.

Yes, something was up. Never disputed that - there was something amiss. However you brought in Fitzroy’s ladder positions with Brisbane’s wooden spoon to somehow argue it was an ongoing basket case. I said that Brisbane’s wooden spoon was an aberration - look the word up if you need to. While you’re doing it check the list Brisbane had at the time:

Brisbane Playing List for 1998 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Lethal barely had to rebuild that side he just had to polish it. He did it brilliantly - I never argued differently.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Its in the context of north’s decision to hire clarko. Stay on target ned.

And his broader point was that the recycled coach doesn’t get the job done most of the time. Only thing he got wrong was not remembering Malthouse in 2010 at the time - otherwise he’s bang on.

Want examples of existing coaches taking over a crap list and not getting it done - fine. Malthouse at Carlton. Worsfold at Essendon. Pagan at Carlton. Eade at the Suns. Barrassi at Sydney.

 

[FB19]

Thought I’d look quickly at Norfs list especially focused on mid 20a and under.
All fit their midfield looks pretty good especially if they add McKercher. Xerri and CCJ serviceable enough as ruck forwards, if I were them I would go get Ned Moyle from the Suns. LDU Simpkin Wardlaw with Phillips Powell TT Scott McKercher rotating pretty strong.
Their forwardline has Larkey Comben Zurhaar Braydon George Sheezel Curtis with depth in Harvey and Ford. Seems like they could use some pressure forwards which they should be able to secure from state leagues or late picks, otherwise again not too bad.
Defence - aye there’s the rub!
Assuming McKay is gone and putting aside Vorr (29) and McDonald (28) they have Logue Archer and Goater.
Seems critical for norf they get pick 3 compo then I would take McKercher and then trade back for gws first round picks and take osullivan and someone like demattia. Could also use ports first for someone like Ollie Murphy then you have 3 first round talents in your back half in one draft suddenly the list looks healthier. A very important draft I am tired of them being so crap.

 

[BobHawk]

I am pretty sure that Leigh Matthews made it clear that he was not interested in coaching again unless there was a good list and the only reason he took on the Brisbane job was because he knew they had the players to go all the way. This is not debatable.

 

[FB19]

I am pretty sure that Leigh Matthews made it clear that he was not interested in coaching again unless there was a good list and the only reason he took on the Brisbane job was because he knew they had the players to go all the way. This is not debatable.

I love how your confidence grew during your post!

 

[The hands of stone]

Good stat on sportsday - Duke ahead of pace to beat most broken tackles in a season . Record currently held by Dusty .

 

[Brishawk]

And his broader point was that the recycled coach doesn’t get the job done most of the time. Only thing he got wrong was not remembering Malthouse in 2010 at the time - otherwise he’s bang on.

Want examples of existing coaches taking over a crap list and not getting it done - fine. Malthouse at Carlton. Worsfold at Essendon. Pagan at Carlton. Eade at the Suns. Barrassi at Sydney.

I know this is challenging for your Ned but ALL coaches don't get the job done most of the time. When a team finishes last the odds of winning a premiership within the next ten years are remote. Only 3 teams (including the Brisbane Lions in 1998) have won a premiership in the next TEN seasons after finishing 16th or lower. The other two are West Coast and Richmond (and Richmond did it in 2017 after finishing 16th in 2007). So it is near certain that whoever coaches a side that finishes last is going to get fired regardless of previous experience coaching. But taking a side to a premiership is not the only benefit of hiring a coach with experience. A lot of experienced coaches are hired to turn around the club. Barassi was immense for the Swans and for you to put his name up there as a failed coach shows how ignorant you are.

Here is every North Coach since Pagan (their last Premiership coach):

							W% H/A					W% F					W% Overall
34	Dani Laidley	2003–2009	149	72	75	2	48.99	5	1	4	0	20.00	154	73	79	2	47.40
35	Darren Crocker	2009, 2015, 2016	15	6	8	1	35.00	0	0	0	0	0.00	10	3	6	1	35.00
36	Brad Scott	2010-2019	158	86	72	0	54.67	7	4	3	0	57.14	211	106	105	0	50.25
37	Rhyce Shaw	2019–2020	29	10	19	0	34.48	0	0	0	0	0.00	29	10	19	0	34.48
38	David Noble	2021–2022	38	5	32	1	14.47	0	0	0	0	0.00	38	5	32	1	14.47
39	Leigh Adams	2022[G]	5	1	4	0	20.00	0	0	0	0	0.00	5	1	4	0	20.00
40	Alastair Clarkson	2023	9	2	7	0	22.22	0	0	0	0	0.00	9	2	7	0	22.22
41	Brett Ratten	2023	5	0	5	0	0.00	0	0	0	0	0.00	9	0	5	0	0.00

One coach has managed a positive win/loss percentage in all that time. First time coach, Shaw didn't last two seasons. Neither did Noble. Prior to Clarkson, they had won 18 games since Shaw took over from Scott but only 9 since the beginning of the 2020 season. Do they look like an appealing club to the best coaching candidates? In what possible world would North have benefited from bringing in another first time coach? They needed experience. Was Clarkson the right choice? ITs not looking great right now...but there is still time.

 

[peetoo]

Time to waste….
So 2004-2023 a nice round 20 years and avoiding the anomaly of lethal 3 flags

345 coaching seasons 62 of those by coaches in subsequent gigs. A touch under 18%

One flag in that time malty at collingwood so 5% success overall though there would be a few runners up too

For first gig coaches, 19 flags from 283 starts at an almost 6% statistical chance of winning
Subsequent gig, 1 flag from 62 starts almost 2% statistical chance add in 01-03 and its closer

Geelong hawthorn port sydney west coast never employed a subsequent gig coach. Perhaps a clearer
factor they share 13 of the 20 flags.
13 from 100 starts Get a gig at those clubs and your statistical chance is 13% each year

Totally ignoring caretakers

The leftover clubs, first time coach starts? 6 flags from 183 starts? About 3%

 

[peetoo]

Even before lethal brisbane lions MO was to employ experienced coaches. They just had some poor ones

 

[barbster]

Yes, something was up. Never disputed that - there was something amiss. However you brought in Fitzroy’s ladder positions with Brisbane’s wooden spoon to somehow argue it was an ongoing basket case. I said that Brisbane’s wooden spoon was an aberration - look the word up if you need to. While you’re doing it check the list Brisbane had at the time:

Brisbane Playing List for 1998 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Lethal barely had to rebuild that side he just had to polish it. He did it brilliantly - I never argued differently.

You were the one who mentioned the Lions I am just giving you the facts in regards to the Lions. I was living in Brisbane at the time and those that supported the Bears were pretty pissed off with having to be merged with the basket case that were the Lions and they were rightly justified when that spoon came. Spin it all you like, but without Lethal taking the helm they would have been an average side.
And you have probably missed the biggest reason why Brisbane achieved what they did - 1 x Jonathan Brown, who joined their list in 2000 and a father son Roy boy. He was the catalyst for their 2001 flag and subsequent flags.