That was the COVID year which had a double impact.
Not only did recruiters have far less information with which to make their decisions, but many of the 17/18 year olds missed as absolutely essential year of development.
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Gerard Healey - Will Day #1 -2019
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That was the COVID year which had a double impact.
Not only did recruiters have far less information with which to make their decisions, but many of the 17/18 year olds missed as absolutely essential year of development.
Yep
There were some diamonds later on (Gulden, Holmes) but nowhere near the depth of 19
You would probably expect some difficulty getting the 2020 picks right given there was very little junior footy played in most states, definitely Victoria, where 7 of these top 10 selections come from.
Also note 5 of the players taken in the top 10 have been hampered by major illness or injury that has no doubt affected their progress to this point.
You would think there is a lot of latent 22yo talent out there somewhere that may materialise over time.
HeHateMe
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I think they are a little different, Youngs boot is a laser beam best of the crop, makes really good decisions too like Day. Anderson is another similar but again a little different, all 3 have different strengths.
As others have mentioned Day is showing the spread of qualities that closer compares to something like the Bont or from back in the day James Hird.
I agree though with Young it's still very early days even though he is already very good. An increase in production could take him to be your most damaging mid that includes Serong who is a unanimous no.1 right now from this draft.
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Green is good but has been inconsistent and Anderson only plays well at home. They should be down graded for those reasons.
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Green 12 out of 19 games over 30 possesions and only one when he got injured 1st qtr he has got below 20 possesions. Inconsistent?
Greens disposal can be a bit messy
Wasn't aware of this knock on Anderson only being good at home
Wasn't aware of this knock on Anderson only being good at home
Treacy as a Rookie, he'd go in the top 5 now.
Hehe, Yep. Was the best demonstration of statistical bias over common sense.
Cyril played 25 Games (Yes 25) in his Debut year, Including a Flag, and entries in both the mark and goal of the year comps.. His Chase down and tackle 2 v 1 in the grand final is etched as an iconic Grand Final moment. All as a rookie 18 year old.
But the vanilla Rhys Palmer got the nod from the experts as he had better stats
Stack ranking different players in the AFL is nigh on impossible given the different roles that exist.
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Palmer averaged 23.1 touches and kicked 10 goals that debut season. He did his knee the next year and was never the same, and it seems like the player he became is held against him when discussing the Rising Star award - which is awarded before the finals too, is it not?
One interesting exercise is to go through all the age groups to see how many players have an average player rating of 10.0 or above in the 2024 season. This gives us a bit of an idea how the top end of each draft year is progressing. What we can see below is the 2019 draft is definitely a big overperformer in terms of producing top performing players in season 2024 from bith the first round of the draft and the top 10. The 2016 draft year actually produced the most 10+ rated players in season 2024 overall, but these players are more spread over the whole draft than say the 2019 draft crop. And 2020 was definitely a bad year to have high value draft picks, only 1 of the top 10 draft picks is currently rating above 10, and this is already beaing bettered and equalled by the younger subsequent draft crops.
19yo(natural draft year 2023) 1 player currently rating above 10.0 in 2024, he is the number 1 pick.
20yo(draft year 2022) 4 players, all rd 1 picks, 2 x top 10
21yo(draft year 2021) 11 players, 5 rd 1 picks, 3 x top 10
22yo(draft year 2020) 8 players, 3 rd 1 picks, 1 x top 10
23yo(draft year 2019) 16 players, 10 rd 1 picks, 7 x top 10
24yo(draft year 2018) 10 players, 7 rd 1 picks, 4 x top 10
25yo(draft year 2017) 17 players, 9 rd 1 picks, 6 x top 10
26yo(draft year 2016) 21 players, 7 rd 1 picks, 5 x top 10
27yo(draft year 2015) 12 players, 7 rd 1 picks, 3 x top 10
28yo(draft year 2014) 18 players, 7 rd 1 picks, 3 x top 10
29yo(draft year 2013) 17 players, 5 rd 1 picks, 3 x top 10
30yo(draft year 2012) 10 players, 4 rd 1 picks, 3 x top 10
31yo(draft year 2011) 10 players, 6 rd 1 picks, 4 x top 10
32yo(draft year 2010) 7 players, 2 rd 1 picks, 2 x top 10
33yo(draft year 2009) 1 player, 1 rd 1 pick, 1 x top 10
34yo(draft year 2008) 2 player, 1 rd 1 pick, 1 x top 10
35yo(draft year 2007) 1 player, 0 rd 1, 0 x top 10
36yo(draft year 2006) 1 player, 1 rd 1, 1 x top 10
Now I must say there are a lot of limitations to this exercise and other things to note as listed below. So it is a rough exercise, but gives us a guide to which draft crops are producing the most high performers in season 2024.
1. Players performing well in 2024 may not be the best performing or most valuable players overall. Jack Bowes is rating above 10 in 2024, Dustin Martin is not for eg.
2. Some players are rating above 10 on average but not in their team's best 22, Setterfield for an example.
3. Round 1 selections sometimes there are 30 or more players who could be counted as rd 1(including priority, compensation, academy, underage, and father son selections), other times there are only 20 or even less players in round 1, so round 1 is a bit of a nebulous parameter, perhaps it would have been better to nominate top 20 selections rather than rd 1.
4. I have included under age picks in the draft year as if current rules applied to every year.
5. The ratings tend to over-rate rucks and under-rate key position players I think, so this effects the figures a little.
19yo(natural draft year 2023) 1 player currently rating above 10.0 in 2024, he is the number 1 pick.
20yo(draft year 2022) 4 players, all rd 1 picks, 2 x top 10
21yo(draft year 2021) 11 players, 5 rd 1 picks, 3 x top 10
22yo(draft year 2020) 8 players, 3 rd 1 picks, 1 x top 10
23yo(draft year 2019) 16 players, 10 rd 1 picks, 7 x top 10
24yo(draft year 2018) 10 players, 7 rd 1 picks, 4 x top 10
25yo(draft year 2017) 17 players, 9 rd 1 picks, 6 x top 10
26yo(draft year 2016) 21 players, 7 rd 1 picks, 5 x top 10
27yo(draft year 2015) 12 players, 7 rd 1 picks, 3 x top 10
28yo(draft year 2014) 18 players, 7 rd 1 picks, 3 x top 10
29yo(draft year 2013) 17 players, 5 rd 1 picks, 3 x top 10
30yo(draft year 2012) 10 players, 4 rd 1 picks, 3 x top 10
31yo(draft year 2011) 10 players, 6 rd 1 picks, 4 x top 10
32yo(draft year 2010) 7 players, 2 rd 1 picks, 2 x top 10
33yo(draft year 2009) 1 player, 1 rd 1 pick, 1 x top 10
34yo(draft year 2008) 2 player, 1 rd 1 pick, 1 x top 10
35yo(draft year 2007) 1 player, 0 rd 1, 0 x top 10
36yo(draft year 2006) 1 player, 1 rd 1, 1 x top 10
Now I must say there are a lot of limitations to this exercise and other things to note as listed below. So it is a rough exercise, but gives us a guide to which draft crops are producing the most high performers in season 2024.
1. Players performing well in 2024 may not be the best performing or most valuable players overall. Jack Bowes is rating above 10 in 2024, Dustin Martin is not for eg.
2. Some players are rating above 10 on average but not in their team's best 22, Setterfield for an example.
3. Round 1 selections sometimes there are 30 or more players who could be counted as rd 1(including priority, compensation, academy, underage, and father son selections), other times there are only 20 or even less players in round 1, so round 1 is a bit of a nebulous parameter, perhaps it would have been better to nominate top 20 selections rather than rd 1.
4. I have included under age picks in the draft year as if current rules applied to every year.
5. The ratings tend to over-rate rucks and under-rate key position players I think, so this effects the figures a little.
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It's a big call by Healy, because it's the first positive thing he's said about Hawthorn in 30 years.
In all seriousness, what a great draft.
Also, shoutout to a former resident 'draft expert' who would frequent Bigfooty and said Will Day's ceiling was Kade Simpson.
Keep in mind, Kade is one of my all time favourite opposition footballers, but that may have been the laziest comparison I'd ever seen in my life. It came at the conclusion of Day's third season as well.
It was obvious he was going to be shifted up the ground and had the aerial/defensive traits to succeed at it, which Simpson never really did.
In all seriousness, what a great draft.
Also, shoutout to a former resident 'draft expert' who would frequent Bigfooty and said Will Day's ceiling was Kade Simpson.
Keep in mind, Kade is one of my all time favourite opposition footballers, but that may have been the laziest comparison I'd ever seen in my life. It came at the conclusion of Day's third season as well.
It was obvious he was going to be shifted up the ground and had the aerial/defensive traits to succeed at it, which Simpson never really did.
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In fairness to Tom, he rolled his ankle badly early against the Swans and this affected his next handful of games.
hawkman
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Day needs to become a goal a game mid if he is to become the best player from the draft. Just not enough damage forward of centre to rated at the top
It was on one of the footy shows recently. He’s output is about half of what it is when Suns play at home. I hope someone can post the relevant Stat.
As hilarious as that comparison is, we should be happy Day wasn't touted as the 23rd Dusty or 15th Danger drafted that year.
I think your list is pretty good except I woulf have Pickett at 9 or 10 with Young. I think Pickett, Young, and Day could move up the list in the future
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I think your underselling palmers debut year.
The award is for home and away
Palmer played 20 of 22 games and came runner up in the freo bnf.
Bnfs aren’t done on stats and most of them vote the game so if you miss games it’s at your detriment.
He wasn’t a half back seagull
He averaged 3cl 8.5cp 3.5 i50 to go with 10 goals 10 assists
Cyril averaged .9 goals
Palmer .5 from mid and half fwd
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I think Day will climb this list but a pretty fair assessment as at today.
I think he could do with getting more of the ball - if he were doing what he's doing but averaging 28 touches a game instead of 22, that would put him right up there.
i think it was a fairly throw away line by Gerard
Can you or anyone remember back to the draft and what was said of the quality and depth? Interesting to see whether the "experts" called it as an excellent, top end and deep talent draft.
vanders
Brownlow Medallist
I don’t think at this stage he’d be taken #1 but I wouldn’t trade him for anyone else in that draft. You’d have to be happy to have majority of those guys drafted before him though. Great draft
I mean they were impressive, but those three games were
Round 2 West Coast, who took the early season hub as an excuse to not perform
Round 3 Adelaide, North Melbourne beat the Crows by 10 goals this season.
Round 4 Fremantle, finished the season in 12th.
He was pretty anonymous in Round 1 against Port.
100% One of those hyperbolic lines commentators throw out 25 times a week. Usually after a player does something mundane.
Still remember watching some game 10 years ago or whatever and a defender took an uncontested mark - commentator was like "28 possessions, every one hard earned". Stats guy obviously not listening and put up the stats and the player had 6 contested possessions.
Can't remember who it was or who said but ffs, just call the game. If a player is playing well we can see it with our own eyes. We don't need you campaigners blowing up every little thing to make it seem more grand.
