Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 3

[cats_09]

Here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

Cheers to Lore for their hard work in setting this up, and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft - and please practice patience grasshoppers if it's not updated in the immediate aftermath of completed trade





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Draft and Trade Period Key Dates​

Oct 17 to Nov 8: Pick swap window
Nov 1 to Nov 8: Delisted free agency period
Nov 20-21: Telstra AFL Draft
Nov 22: Telstra Pre-Season Draft and Rookie Draft

 

[Lana]

You're giving club leadership enough rope to hang themselves, and for a great many of those leaders the benefit of the drafted players that are still in year 10 at time of trade is well outside their expected tenure so why not tie a noose?

I don't know how the AFL is going to navigate it, if they don't open up more flexibility with the Salary cap. clubs are going to find themselves trapped down the bottom for even longer and the AFL is going to be compelled to intervene, rewarding failure to the detriments of weak clubs that otherwise tried to do the right thing.

 

[Gunf]

You can almost bet at least 1 club will **** themselves over trading out of 3 drafts for 1 player and then beg the AFL to help them.

Hell teams already beg the AFL for help constantly now from ****ing up lists wait till they can trade 3 years worth of picks and destroy themselves worse.

 

[Tristan34]

Talk about an overreaction. Tony Barber only said that our midfield was still second-rate, and frankly I agree.

How is it second rate?? We flogged Port in an away final and just lost to Brisbane.. Those two teams probably have the best midfields in the league...

 

[Turbocat]

There is a time value of draft picks, in a similar way to a time value of money,

It is caused by list managers wiliness to selling picks that might "vest" well after they leave, rather than inflation.

Good modelling will be required to minimise risk, black swan events could makes huge expected winners and loser. There are lot less lynch pin players in AFL then their are in NBA or NFL.

There is a huge trade off between the certainty of a player in hand vs a draft pick with a (30% rate) in three years, that has a chance at being a top 3 pick.

I'm waiting for the draft data of the last 5-10 years to mature but to my eye clubs as a cohort are a lot better at avoiding outright duds with earlier picks. Which does help somewhat when making decisions.

Predictability is essential when making these types of decisions

2nd and 3rd round picks two years in advance will be nearly worthless

Black Swan events? Sounds like a Natalie Portman promotion ...

 

[dazbroncos]

People talk about long contracts destroying clubs futures.

I know its a little OT but the theory still applies. The NFL Cleveland Brown traded their world for Dashon Watson who came with a 250 million 5 year fully guaranteed contract and multiple sexual misconduct and indecency claims against him over a 3 -4 year period.

2 years ito the deal, hes missed about 2/3 of last season and he just blew out his Achilles and is gone for the rest of this season.

Some Leopards not only can't change their spots but they dont even get the chance to do so.

The Browns have been perinneal cellar dwellers and wont be leaving there anytime soon.

Be very careful of long deals and suspect characters on them. Same goes for mortgaging future picks for a potential quick jump up the draft ladder now.

GO Catters

 

[dazbroncos]

And lets go easy on the poking and snapping at people...

Its not even a month into the off season so all take a deep breath.

All opinions welcome just remember that not everyone will share yours, so let them all exist snd certainly dont force them on others. ....


oh.. and keep them within reason or we'll just ban you and no one has fun with that.

GO Catters

 

[Lana]

People talk about long contracts destroying clubs futures.

I know its a little OT but the theory still applies. The NFL Cleveland Brown traded their world for Dashon Watson who came with a 250 million 5 year fully guaranteed contract and multiple sexual misconduct and indecency claims against him over a 3 -4 year period.

2 years ito the deal, hes missed about 2/3 of last season and he just blew out his Achilles and is gone for the rest of this season.

Some Leopards not only can't change their spots but they dont even get the chance to do so.

The Browns have been perinneal cellar dwellers and wont be leaving there anytime soon.

Be very careful of long deals and suspect characters on them. Same goes for mortgaging future picks for a potential quick jump up the draft ladder now.

GO Catters

I can think of a few shockers like that in the AFL, I wonder if anyone has bothered to compile a competition tracking of contracts, be interesting to see what the expected games are from a 3, 4 and 5+ deal contacts are

 

[iameviljez]

How is it second rate?? We flogged Port in an away final and just lost to Brisbane.. Those two teams probably have the best midfields in the league...

Winning those games doesn't magically mean our midfield is 'fixed'. We lack a set of top-line clearance winners and are overwhelmingly dependent on Holmes and Dangerfield to break lines through the middle.

In particular, we are liable to being chopped up the middle for periods of games, like Brisbane did in the third quarter of that game, and StKilda did late in the season.

 

[Turbocat]

People talk about long contracts destroying clubs futures.

I know its a little OT but the theory still applies. The NFL Cleveland Brown traded their world for Dashon Watson who came with a 250 million 5 year fully guaranteed contract and multiple sexual misconduct and indecency claims against him over a 3 -4 year period.

2 years ito the deal, hes missed about 2/3 of last season and he just blew out his Achilles and is gone for the rest of this season.

Some Leopards not only can't change their spots but they dont even get the chance to do so.

The Browns have been perinneal cellar dwellers and wont be leaving there anytime soon.

Be very careful of long deals and suspect characters on them. Same goes for mortgaging future picks for a potential quick jump up the draft ladder now.

GO Catters

Daz.. can you explain how a contract is not guaranteed? Its contract but not a contract

 

[My Tilly]

We lack a set of top-line clearance winners and are overwhelmingly dependent on Holmes and Dangerfield to break lines through the middle.

This is where Bailey Smith is a significant signing. It's a game changer in the way Cameron was.

 

[strauchnyy]

I think so but I think we need to see him properly fail as a mid first

Think that’s already happened

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I don't know how the AFL is going to navigate it, if they don't open up more flexibility with the Salary cap. clubs are going to find themselves trapped down the bottom for even longer and the AFL is going to be compelled to intervene, rewarding failure to the detriments of weak clubs that otherwise tried to do the right thing.

Selling picks for cap space feels like the obvious rebuild supercharger

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Think that’s already happened

I don't think things ones up for him this year. I'd give it one more crack next year then try turn him into a kpd if that fails

 

[iameviljez]

This is where Bailey Smith is a significant signing. It's a game changer in the way Cameron was.

I disagree with that. He's not as good as Cameron, nor does he play in as unique a position.

 

[Gunf]

Selling picks for cap space feels like the obvious rebuild supercharger

It could very much change things for the better but i still see a club sell cap space for 3-5 years and all of a sudden get a big fish wanting to come but can't actually afford it.... My bet is on Saints or North

 

[dazbroncos]

Daz.. can you explain how a contract is not guaranteed? Its contract but not a contract

THE NFL contracts are written to contain injury clauses and other things to protect club and player in theory for against overly long and dangerous deals.

EG

GAS gets 5 year 125 million dollar deal.

75 million guaranteed.

The rest (50milllion) is paid in bonuses, and as wages over the remaining life of contract provided terms are met by both player and team.

Now in the NFL the teams can trade the player without players consent but they must get someone to accept the remaining terms of the deal.

So if GAS goes out injured and retires they can renegotiate payout and terms.

The Browns in the above case fully guaranteed the entire deal which is closer to the AFL terms of a contract and thus why I mentioned it and how it can go really really bad. And it has.

The NFL has WAY more complex metrics to deal with cooking the books and shifting $$ forward and back that I dont fully get myself... but its a complicated thing.

As for the trading oif players, my team the Broncos killed them selves and padi Russell Wilson 245 million for 5 years but it wasnt fully guaranteed.

We trraded him away after 2 season of crap performane but in the 3rd year we are paying 37 million of his 38 million dollar per year deal this year so he can play for someone else - just to get rid if him. Jack Bowes eat your heart out lol

Point is, longer term deals with dodgy people can end very very badly and trading out FR picks can go the same way.

GO Catters

 

[Hinkley29]

The list managers clearly like this draft

Lucky we have a strong list of draft picks. Wait, what? Oh

 

[My Tilly]

I disagree with that. He's not as good as Cameron, nor does he play in as unique a position.

I did not say he's as good as Cameron but in terms of complimenting our team, he is the perfect player to bring in because we now have two explosive midfielders and only half the teams in the competition have that in their midfield brigade.
We are going to be playing deep into September again as we have improved the list from what we had this season.

 

[Lana]

Lucky we have a strong list of draft picks. Wait, what? Oh

We're too good to get a strong draft hand, it is the best problem to have

 

[Turbocat]

THE NFL contracts are written to contain injury clauses and other things to protect club and player in theory for against overly long and dangerous deals.

EG

GAS gets 5 year 125 million dollar deal.

75 million guaranteed.

The rest (50milllion) is paid in bonuses, and as wages over the remaining life of contract provided terms are met by both player and team.

Now in the NFL the teams can trade the player without players consent but they must get someone to accept the remaining terms of the deal.

So if GAS goes out injured and retires they can renegotiate payout and terms.

The Browns in the above case fully guaranteed the entire deal which is closer to the AFL terms of a contract and thus why I mentioned it and how it can go really really bad. And it has.

The NFL has WAY more complex metrics to deal with cooking the books and shifting $$ forward and back that I dont fully get myself... but its a complicated thing.

As for the trading oif players, my team the Broncos killed them selves and padi Russell Wilson 245 million for 5 years but it wasnt fully guaranteed.

We trraded him away after 2 season of crap performane but in the 3rd year we are paying 37 million of his 38 million dollar per year deal this year so he can play for someone else - just to get rid if him. Jack Bowes eat your heart out lol

Point is, longer term deals with dodgy people can end very very badly and trading out FR picks can go the same way.

GO Catters

Thank You..

 

[CatToTheFuture]

It could very much change things for the better but i still see a club sell cap space for 3-5 years and all of a sudden get a big fish wanting to come but can't actually afford it.... My bet is on Saints or North

Yeah at some point they've tied enough nooses

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Lucky we have a strong list of draft picks. Wait, what? Oh

Meh, we traded pretty well

 

[Hinkley29]

Meh, we traded pretty well

I sincerely hope you are right.

 

[Hamingja]

You can almost bet at least 1 club will **** themselves over trading out of 3 drafts for 1 player and then beg the AFL to help them.

Hell teams already beg the AFL for help constantly now from ****ing up lists wait till they can trade 3 years worth of picks and destroy themselves worse.

My thinking is they are only looking to extend trading future picks for additional years so teams can still trade around Tassie screwing the draft so it doesn't leave players stranded at their existing club. Your future first is going to be worth jack shit if it is the draft that Tassie get 15 pre selections / first round draft picks in, so you will need to trade your future future firsts instead. Once we are through that I would expect it goes back to 1 year, particularly if a couple of teams really shoot themselves in the foot with it while it is available.

 

[PeasFC]

Well when you put our midfield in a graphic like this, gotta say, makes me pretty excited in the pants - especially that top row:

View attachment 2150497

Good Variety there too. It is exciting. Shame no oliver

Was listening to SEN the other day and they mentioned Carlton having the best top 5 in the comp.
If Smith can have a really good year our top 5 will look pretty solid.

Cameron, Stewart, Holmes, Danger (Still), then hopefully Smith.
Hopefully in 2 years time, Holmes / Smith / SDK are firmly entrenched.
Would obviously be nice to add a butters, cadman or TDK to this list.

Maybe only carlton and brisbane have better top 5's. Maybe the dogs.

Brisbane: Neale, Ashcroft, McCluggage, Andrews, Zorko (+ rayner, cameron, starcevich).
Carlton: Cripps, Walsh, Weitering, Curnow then maybe Mackay
Dogs: Bont, Treloar, Naughton, Darcy, Richards
Sydney: Gulden, Heeney, Warner but it falls right away after that.