Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 3

[cats_09]

Here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

Cheers to Lore for their hard work in setting this up, and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft - and please practice patience grasshoppers if it's not updated in the immediate aftermath of completed trade





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Draft and Trade Period Key Dates​

Oct 17 to Nov 8: Pick swap window
Nov 1 to Nov 8: Delisted free agency period
Nov 20-21: Telstra AFL Draft
Nov 22: Telstra Pre-Season Draft and Rookie Draft

 

[iameviljez]

Im exoecting a big improvement from the likes of Oslin, Knevitt and Clarke next year …I think Atkins will end up being pushed out eventually in the year as I don’t think he’s versatile enough in the backline

I think so. We could cover his shortcomings in 2022 because Guthrie, Duncan and Selwood were there to do a fair bit of the grunt work, but that's not the case in 2024-5.

 

[Strange Cat]

I think so. We could cover his shortcomings in 2022 because Guthrie, Duncan and Selwood were there to do a fair bit of the grunt work, but that's not the case in 2024-5.

Im thinking Guthrie will end up in the Duncan role and Danger will spend more time in the forward line

 

[My Tilly]

We've lost Hawkins, Tuohy, Rohan, Parfitt. Added Smith.
Not saying we won't go well again next year, but I don't see Smith being the difference in improving the list. We've lost irreplacable veterans and are going to continue to do so next few years.
The improvement has to come from internal development in younger players.

Neither of those players impacted us much at all this past season.
If anything, we improved as younger players like Dempsey and Humphries came into the side and gave us much needed versatility.

Another preseason into Bruhn, Clark, Conway, Humphries & Dempsey, we are going to be just as strong (I think stronger) than what we were this year.

 

[D BRIDGE]

This is where Bailey Smith is a significant signing. It's a game changer in the way Cameron was.

I wish this was true.

 

[My Tilly]

I'd say far less than half have the 'explosive' mids that we possess. We actually have 3 now - Danger, Holmes and Smith. Stewart ain't slow either, and he's big bodied and explosive off the mark (if he's in there).

Adelaide have Soligo, maybe Rankine when he goes through there
Brisbane have W. Ashcroft and Rayner and Bailey when they go through there
Carlton have no-one, maybe Cripps given his size covers his lack of speed
Collingwood have De Goey
Essendon have Durham and Zerrett
Freo have Young
Gold Coast have Rowell, maybe Miller at a stretch
GWS have Coniglio and Daniels, maybe Green for the same reasons as Cripps
Hawthorn have no-one
Melbourne have Petracca
North have LDU and Wardlaw
Port have Rozee, Butters and JHF
Richmond have no-one
Sydney have Warner and Heeney
Bulldogs have Bont and Richards
West Coast have Reid

So at a stretch, I'd say only GWS, Brisbane, Port and us have 3 explosive mids...which funnily enough, are 4 of the top 5 teams. Sydney, Bulldogs, GC, Adelaide, North and Essendon all have 2. If you think Danger plays more forward next year, then you're right it's around half. I still think given they revamped Danger's running style/technique when coming off the mark to avoid further injury, that he should be counted alongside the other two as 'burst' mids. If that's the case, we're one of only 4 in the comp to have 3 + Stewart who is a big bodied burst player, but could play in defence (still unknown).

I would classify Bontempelli in the same 'athletic' profile as Cripps. Not exactly quick but they are bulls.

Rankine would be one of the most explosive midfielders in the game and should be close to one of top 10 players in the comp next season.

Nick Daicos is explosive. Certainly in the same class as Wardlaw, Warner and alike.

I wish this was true.

You don't seem to be a fan of Smith's game. I think you will be relatively surprised by what he delivers.

 

[D BRIDGE]

You don't seem to be a fan of Smith's game. I think you will be relatively surprised by what he delivers.

Oh I'm a fan... but I'm not gonna compare him to one of the best players in the game and a freak forward.

Smith should be a nice addition if he can find something near his best form.

Very happy to have him and I love the gut running he offers.

He is no Danger or Cameron though... but I'd love to be proven wrong... or even nearly wrong.

 

[iameviljez]

Im thinking Guthrie will end up in the Duncan role and Danger will spend more time in the forward line

I suspect that if that happens, Duncan goes. He's not a forward - he's not evasive enough any more, nor good enough overhead.

Besides, with Henry, Stengle, Miers, Close, Mannagh and now Martin... we are pretty good up there.

 

[stac]

Like all 3 as latish picks.

you would think all three are in the mid 30s to late 40s
depending on how early the bids for Ashcroft, Marshall and Kako come the 30s and 40s picks held by Bris and Ess could be gettable, Bris will need future picks also as they have another strong Academy player next year.

 

[Footy Smarts]

This was the guy the mainboard Richmond posters were claiming to be talented youf yeah, just Hardwick, McQualter and Yze just all discriminated against him for no reason.

That's the one

 

[goyoucatters]

We've lost Hawkins, Tuohy, Rohan, Parfitt. Added Smith.
Not saying we won't go well again next year, but I don't see Smith being the difference in improving the list. We've lost irreplacable veterans and are going to continue to do so next few years.
The improvement has to come from internal development in younger players.

Toma's 2024 was not a level of performance that is going to be seriously missed.

Tuohy was right at the end and would not have been in our top 15 contributors across the course of the year.

Rohan barely got his season going, between all the injuries and interruptions. And it does appear that playing Ollie and Chucky together is something like oil and water, anyway, in terms of being a winning combination for the team on the field.

And Parf had hit a wall, to the point where his senior output was middling at best.

So I would have thought players like Neale, Humphries, Mannagh and Bowes were already displacing the players you mention from our best 23 by the end of 2024. On that basis, I'm satisfied that the addition of Smith and some incremental improvement from what is now a sizeable group of younger senior players could see us reasonably placed to compete again in 2025.

Having said that, if our remaining top-line veteran players like Jez, Stewart and Danger go over the cliff, I do acknowledge that we will be in serious trouble. No team does well if their elite talents and game-changers massively underperform. But their respective 2024 seasons were more than good enough to suggest that they're not well past their best at this point. Danger will need to be managed, of course. But his best is still pretty handy for mine.

So if we can get a decent run for the group on the injury front, there are still some sensible grounds for general optimism about our 2025, I believe.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I think so. We could cover his shortcomings in 2022 because Guthrie, Duncan and Selwood were there to do a fair bit of the grunt work, but that's not the case in 2024-5.

I don't think even Mitch Duncan himself would describe his 2022 season as "grunt work".

He floated high on the flanks and patrolled space at either end, while visiting a couple of CBA per game.

He was highly effective and without doubt an important cog in the side, but it wasn't grunt work.

Dangerfield, Selwood, Guthrie, Atkins, Blicavs, & Paffitt provided that for us over the course of the season, with Holmes giving the odd chop out.

Come finals, that shifted with Parfitt dropping out, with Holmes to follow through injury.

 

[My Tilly]

Oh I'm a fan... but I'm not gonna compare him to one of the best players in the game and a freak forward.

Smith should be a nice addition if he can find something near his best form.

Very happy to have him and I love the gut running he offers.

He is no Danger or Cameron though... but I'd love to be proven wrong... or even nearly wrong.

Once again, I am being misquoted by a couple in here

This is where Bailey Smith is a significant signing. It's a game changer in the way Cameron was.

Also, Smith will have a much better season than Oliver (whom you rate). Bookmark it.

 

[Tony Barber]

Don’t you openly talk about how you don’t watch games and only listen to it on the radio?

I listen to 'other' games on radio.
My interest in AFL was at an all time low until late this year.

 

[Tony Barber]

With regards to the midfield we need Holmes to lift.


Wait....wait... yes he won the B&F. Great.
But he now needs to go to a level of 'how do we stop Holmes?'

And we need 2 more like that. I have high hopes for Humphries and Clark.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

Once again, I am being misquoted by a couple in here



Also, Smith will have a much better season than Oliver (whom you rate). Bookmark it.

Look obviously i hope Smith plays well for the Cats , it will interesting/exciting as to what he produces in season 2025

In regards to Oliver , i think Geelong and some of the Cats players (the ones who showed real interest and met him) might have done Oliver a real favour ,reading what he has said since , going to train the house down , and he did have a few injury problems , said he got plate removed from his hand , and also had an issue with his leg

But Geel showing genuine interest in him , then meeting players at their farms , i reckon given how he is talking now that could be a line in the sand position re his career and if he gets an injury free run he might have a huge year

 

[iameviljez]

With regards to the midfield we need Holmes to lift.


Wait....wait... yes he won the B&F. Great.
But he now needs to go to a level of 'how do we stop Holmes?'

And we need 2 more like that. I have high hopes for Humphries and Clark.

Most players, after they have a breakout year, tend to have another year or two of stasis before going to yet another level. He's only 22 - IMO it's 24 when most midfielders really elevate to that top, top tier if it's ever going to happen.

 

[year of the cat]

My boy, Jacob Heron

40

Jacob Heron

Age

24

Ht

180cm

Wt

79kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

4.2

2star

HB

5.6

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

2.3

4star

G

0.2

2star

No current season stats available

D

8.2

2star

K

4.2

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.4

3star

, hasn't nominated for the draft. Thought he had the talent to give it a second crack but maybe not the will.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

With regards to the midfield we need Holmes to lift.


Wait....wait... yes he won the B&F. Great.
But he now needs to go to a level of 'how do we stop Holmes?'

And we need 2 more like that. I have high hopes for Humphries and Clark.

I can see where you're coming from, as he has the potential to be that top 10 player in the competition that concerns the opposition every week.

With that being said, I'm not sure if it's a fair expectation either in regards to our midfield.

Assuming Holmes continues his form, and Smith rediscovers his 2022 trajectory, the onus to be better isn't on them. They're already doing their job in that scenario.

It's not on Dangerfield or Guthrie either. They've served their blood, sweat, and tears in those roles, and at their age we can't just expect that commodity every week anymore.

It's on Bruhn, Dempsey, Clark, Bowes, Atkins, & Knevitt to varying degrees IMO.

Not all of them obviously, as only 2-4 will likely be playing every week, but the accountability to improve and bridge that gap is on them.

It's akin to the 'Dangerwood' years. If Smith & Holmes are in the top 5 players on the ground in a loss, you can't reasonably place any blame on them.

It's on that next tier to improve and round that group out, like Duncan, Guthrie, Kelly, & Menegola had to in previous years.

 

[Tony Barber]

I can see where you're coming from, as he has the potential to be that top 10 player in the competition that concerns the opposition every week.

With that being said, I'm not sure if it's a fair expectation either in regards to our midfield.

Assuming Holmes continues his form, and Smith rediscovers his 2022 trajectory, the onus to be better isn't on them. They're already doing their job in that scenario.

It's not on Dangerfield or Guthrie either. They've served their blood, sweat, and tears in those roles, and at their age we can't just expect that commodity every week anymore.

It's on Bruhn, Dempsey, Clark, Bowes, Atkins, & Knevitt to varying degrees IMO.

Not all of them obviously, as only 2-4 will likely be playing every week, but the accountability to improve and bridge that gap is on them.

It's akin to the 'Dangerwood' years. If Smith & Holmes are in the top 5 players on the ground in a loss, you can't reasonably place any blame on them.

It's on that next tier to improve and round that group out, like Duncan, Guthrie, Kelly, & Menegola had to in previous years.

Completely agree.
It's why Cripps got 45 votes this year. Theres no support.

Danger and Guthrie have 2 years left I'd guess.
We need players shooting through.

I remember an interview in circa 2009 with Duncan. He said that he and Menzel had been pulled aside by bomber.
He said something like 'you're kids, but dont think that means that you cant make a difference at every contest'.

We've been blessed for a long time.
We need the 23 year olds to stand up now.

 

[goyoucatters]

Assuming Holmes continues his form, and Smith rediscovers his 2022 trajectory, the onus to be better isn't on them. They're already doing their job in that scenario.

It's not on Dangerfield or Guthrie either. They've served their blood, sweat, and tears in those roles, and at their age we can't just expect that commodity every week anymore.

It's on Bruhn, Dempsey, Clark, Bowes, Atkins, & Knevitt to varying degrees IMO.

Not all of them obviously, as only 2-4 will likely be playing every week, but the accountability to improve and bridge that gap is on them.

I generally agree with your assessment. And the positive for me is that there will be true competition across this group to even make the senior side next season. In the absence of an injury crisis, they will all be competing hard to simply make the ones week by week. That can only be good for the prospects of a number of them raising their level in 2025. I believe Mullin will also be in the mix for a role in this wider mids rotation as well.

And that's before you even consider the force of nature that is the #40. He will also be working incredibly hard to demand senior selection in 2025.

#goodsigns
#realcompetitionforspots
#bringit
#dontcounttedout

 

[D BRIDGE]

We've been blessed for a long time.
We need the 23 year olds to stand up now.

They had a segment on SEN radio today asking, "Who has served their apprenticeship and now needs to step up?"

I thought Bruhn was clearly the guy on our team who fits the category most.

 

[goyoucatters]

They had a segment on SEN radio today asking, "Who has served their apprenticeship and now needs to step up?"

I thought Bruhn was clearly the guy on our team who fits the category most.

We know...

 

[standupand]

Toma's 2024 was not a level of performance that is going to be seriously missed.

Tuohy was right at the end and would not have been in our top 15 contributors across the course of the year.

Rohan barely got his season going, between all the injuries and interruptions. And it does appear that playing Ollie and Chucky together is something like oil and water, anyway, in terms of being a winning combination for the team on the field.

And Parf had hit a wall, to the point where his senior output was middling at best.

So I would have thought players like Neale, Humphries, Mannagh and Bowes were already displacing the players you mention from our best 23 by the end of 2024. On that basis, I'm satisfied that the addition of Smith and some incremental improvement from what is now a sizeable group of younger senior players could see us reasonably placed to compete again in 2025.

Having said that, if our remaining top-line veteran players like Jez, Stewart and Danger go over the cliff, I do acknowledge that we will be in serious trouble. No team does well if their elite talents and game-changers massively underperform. But their respective 2024 seasons were more than good enough to suggest that they're not well past their best at this point. Danger will need to be managed, of course. But his best is still pretty handy for mine.

So if we can get a decent run for the group on the injury front, there are still some sensible grounds for general optimism about our 2025, I believe.

Neither of those players impacted us much at all this past season.
If anything, we improved as younger players like Dempsey and Humphries came into the side and gave us much needed versatility.

Another preseason into Bruhn, Clark, Conway, Humphries & Dempsey, we are going to be just as strong (I think stronger) than what we were this year.

I do like your optimism.

Don't get me wrong, I think we've recruited well and while I know those players we've lost didn't impact much in 2024, they still provided important depth to the squad.

The lesson is that there was a reason they were no longer in our best team at the end of the season - they are part of a big group whose bodies are not getting any younger and which we are going to have to be progressively replaced with developing players who don't have nearly the experience.

We have plenty of promise with those developing players, but history shows they will be inconsistent for a while to come. They'll improve slowly, but they'll be inconsistent.

Take Humphries. We're all excited about him and hope he goes from strength to strength, but it's no guarantee. If he has a down 2025, he definitely won't be the first player nor the last to have second-year blues. The reality is he played a stellar 11 games in 24. That still only makes him one 11-game player on our list in 2025.

I don't think we can just expect the side to have a sort of linear improvement from here. The core of our flag side from 22 is on the way out. There's generational change. And while we overachieved to be the second best side without the likes of Hawkins in 2024, there will be ups and downs to come.

 

[D BRIDGE]

We know...

Yeah, but not rating his game initially versus now having "served his apprenticeship" and being ready to step up without any excuses are two different things.

Bruhn should be primed to step it.

We need it from him because I'm not sure anyone else in our midfield mix is in that category to take a big leap forward besides him.

 

[goyoucatters]

I do like your optimism.

Don't get me wrong, I think we've recruited well and while I know those players we've lost didn't impact much in 2024, they still provided important depth to the squad.

The lesson is that there was a reason they were no longer in our best team at the end of the season - they are part of a big group whose bodies are not getting any younger and which we are going to have to be progressively replaced with developing players who don't have nearly the experience.

We have plenty of promise with those developing players, but history shows they will be inconsistent for a while to come. They'll improve slowly, but they'll be inconsistent.

Take Humphries. We're all excited about him and hope he goes from strength to strength, but it's no guarantee. If he has a down 2025, he definitely won't be the first player nor the last to have second-year blues. The reality is he played a stellar 11 games in 24. That still only makes him one 11-game player on our list in 2025.

I don't think we can just expect the side to have a sort of linear improvement from here. The core of our flag side from 22 is on the way out. There's generational change. And while we overachieved to be the second best side without the likes of Hawkins in 2024, there will be ups and downs to come.

I agree on the generally limited likelihood of linear improvement across the entire group. But I do think Laws is actually a good example of someone who is quite likely to be handy again in 2025. His games so far have been very compelling and I can't think of too many players who've started that well only to become fair to middling players soon after. And given he's 22 in his second season (rather than 19), he's actually less likely to really struggle to be consistent from week to week.