Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 3

[cats_09]

Here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

Cheers to Lore for their hard work in setting this up, and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft - and please practice patience grasshoppers if it's not updated in the immediate aftermath of completed trade





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Draft and Trade Period Key Dates​

Oct 17 to Nov 8: Pick swap window
Nov 1 to Nov 8: Delisted free agency period
Nov 20-21: Telstra AFL Draft
Nov 22: Telstra Pre-Season Draft and Rookie Draft

 

[Pivo]

I hope Gerreyn gets through to us in the 40's he would be a steal, if not Clancy Dennis could be a nice steal,this is a bit WA focused but both a little under the radar.
Noah Mraz is a gamble we should take as well he has raw potential to the moon and back.
Joel Cochrane to fill that wing end to end running that we had when Isacc Norm Smith was with us, he is a great runner and has the height to drop into holes as well and take a grab.

I'd be all over this.

Due diligence certainly is required coming off the navicular fracture but if he is around with our first selection I'd be inclined to take the punt.

Managed to get back and test at the Combine so hopefully that is a positive sign.

 

[Turbocat]

There’s no way our future first gets us 15, 16, or 18. It could end up being 20+ next year after bids, best we can hope for is mid-20s.

100%. Without knowing the 2025 draft that well … there are at least two Qld names that probably land R1 one for Lions and one for the Suns. Pies have a probable R1 Fson … and there are always late bloomers. Then one or two spots for Free Agency comp.. While the system is as it is ..it seems R1 .. will nearly always get out to mid 20’s.

If we trade our R1 this year ..id say the most likely trade would be to the Tigers last r1 pick… which probably ends up being P26 or P27.

I think we might get better value trading our Fr2 for something in the 30’s… as once the picks start to get eat up might be a good number

 

[Turbocat]

Think we’d need to trade back in to secure Gerreyn which I hope we do.

Dennis should be available at our picks.

Might be a draft where we look at a few WA boys.

Loading up with WA talent has worked in the past … and although one would never draft for the specific purpose ... it probably will have an added benefit of giving us potential players who may wish to go back to WA if required...

 

[Turbocat]

The introduction of future pick trading being extended to 2 years will have an effect on clubs losing free agents. They are now way more likely to match and force a trade. For instance if Butters were to leave in 2 years time and Port were due a compensation pick of say pick 10, they would match and demand 3 first rounders from the club that are getting Butters. Maybe North would still opt for the pick 2-4 next year rather than 3 mid-late first rounders, but I think this will only get harder for the free agent chasing clubs, especially a club like Geelong who don't pay the highest possible salary.

You can almost bet that every decent player wanting to trade clubs will not be worth multiple R1 picks. Id certainly expect Geelong to ask for that if Sam Dek wanted to leave. HReid probably worth 4 picks. It will end up being inflationary and give clubs little long term advantage.

 

[year of the cat]

Loading up with WA talent has worked in the past … and although one would never draft for the specific purpose ... it probably will have an added benefit of giving us potential players who may wish to go back to WA if required...

I’m really bullish on Gerreyn. He’s the one I’m hoping we have a decent crack at. But a couple of other WA lads later on appeal. Our WA recruiter is well respected by Wells. If he’s keen then that’s good enough for me.

 

[Turbocat]

LDU next year

Butters in 2026

No draft picks or trading required

If LDU does leave ..is there really any real reason why he would select us. Probably depends on what he wants to experience. Pies woudl offer plenty of big club game vibe and stay at home to play and Id imagine Stk would just about throw the kitchen at him if he wants money…

And it seems to me that a lot of clubs believe Butters would be interested in coming back to them…. Im sure we will ask.

 

[Lana]

The introduction of future pick trading being extended to 2 years will have an effect on clubs losing free agents. They are now way more likely to match and force a trade. For instance if Butters were to leave in 2 years time and Port were due a compensation pick of say pick 10, they would match and demand 3 first rounders from the club that are getting Butters. Maybe North would still opt for the pick 2-4 next year rather than 3 mid-late first rounders, but I think this will only get harder for the free agent chasing clubs, especially a club like Geelong who don't pay the highest possible salary.

Not if we trade out two years ahead the year before... locks us out of trading our remaining future future 1st rounder

 

[Turbocat]

I’m really bullish on Gerreyn. He’s the one I’m hoping we have a decent crack at. But a couple of other WA lads later on appeal. Our WA recruiter is well respected by Wells. If he’s keen then that’s good enough for me.

Id be surprised if we go for Gerreyn he seems so different to who we have drafted rather than Conway… and I think other clubs may be bullish on him too. Does he last past 4 WA picks to get to us if we do want him? Both WA clubs seem to like to be heavy on their list for talls. After Bo A…. is he the next to be picked?

 

[Turbocat]

Not if we trade out two years ahead the year before... locks us out of trading our remaining future future 1st rounder

Whats going to be the rule once they introduce 2 years ahead? Has to change doesnt it?

 

[year of the cat]

Id be surprised if we go for Gerreyn he seems so different to who we have drafted rather than Conway… and I think other clubs may be bullish on him too. Does he last past 4 WA picks to get to us if we do want him? Both WA clubs seem to like to be heavy on their list for talls. After Bo A…. is he the next to be picked?

I’m trading our FF for him if I’m Wells. Before the WA clubs get an opportunity. (They won’t use their first picks on him I wouldn’t think).

 

[BORIS332]

It could also be top 10. I wouldn't trade it for anything after about 18 although it depends on who is there as you're trading for a specific player not pick number.

The opposition club needs to agree to the trade too. There's no way any club agrees to trade us anything <20 for our future first.

 

[Lana]

Whats going to be the rule once they introduce 2 years ahead? Has to change doesnt it?

I think the 2 in 4 will stay,

 

[Turbocat]

I think the 2 in 4 will stay,

I guess we see but that would stifle a lot of trades

 

[Lana]

I guess we see but that would stifle a lot of trades

But it would still open up trades that would be previously locked as well
2023- Traded
2024 - Traded
2025 (current year)
2026
2027

Clubs will be trade their 2027 1st rounder, where under the current system, they'd be unable to provide a first rounder.

The extra liquidity, should result in player values increasing relative to picks, but also facilitate more trades, created purely by the difference in how teams value these future picks relative to current picks.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

If LDU does leave ..is there really any real reason why he would select us

I can't see him leaving for any reason other than success.

He'll be getting paid a fortune wherever he goes, and Norf can still offer more than just about anyone.

If he is to leave, he wants to win, and that'll be our drawcard as per usual.

Just have to wait and see how '25 pans out, and if he/we are even mutually interested in one another at all, amongst Collingwood, St Kilda, & Hawthorn is my guess.

 

[My Tilly]

Davies-Uniacke will not be a young man by the time we have a crack. Would be turning 27 and while certainly in the perfect age bracket for any team contending for a premiership, we would likely have to pay substantial overs.

He's a terrific footballer. However, does look like he has reached his potential.

 

[Turbocat]

I can't see him leaving for any reason other than success.

He'll be getting paid a fortune wherever he goes, and Norf can still offer more than just about anyone.

If he is to leave, he wants to win, and that'll be our drawcard as per usual.

Just have to wait and see how '25 pans out, and if he/we are even mutually interested in one another at all, amongst Collingwood, St Kilda, & Hawthorn is my guess.

I agree he will be well paid at most clubs but I suspect he might get a obscenely well paid at the Saints. (pretty women style)...

but I could also see your point.


However after being at the AFL version “Uppercomebuckter No Crowd Jetstar Humpbacks" for all his career and having to travel to Tas and now with Norths new deal ..travel extra to WA … I could see how a player might be attracted to playing for someone like the “Stay at Home Herons" who probably play 17 games a year at the G in front of a big crowd ...

..Perhaps our club which offer an experience of somewhere in the middle might appeal so Im not ruling us out ..just not making us the obvious choice..

 

[Turbocat]

But it would still open up trades that would be previously locked as well
2023- Traded
2024 - Traded
2025 (current year)
2026
2027

Clubs will be trade their 2027 1st rounder, where under the current system, they'd be unable to provide a first rounder.

The extra liquidity, should result in player values increasing relative to picks, but also facilitate more trades, created purely by the difference in how teams value these future picks relative to current picks.

Till I see it operation Im not yet sure it will upscale the amount of trades long term. Short term maybe. For a while each club will have more to trade but then that will ease and demands will see players of the standard of Bailey Smith …. being asked to be traded for 2 r1’s.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I agree he will be well paid at most clubs but I suspect he might get a obscenely well paid at the Saints. (pretty women style)...

but I could also see your point.


However after being at the AFL version “Uppercomebuckter No Crowd Jetstar Humpbacks" for all his career and having to travel to Tas and now with Norths new deal ..travel extra to WA … I could see how a player might be attracted to playing for someone like the “Stay at Home Herons" who probably play 17 games a year at the G in front of a big crowd ...

..Perhaps our club which offer an experience of somewhere in the middle might appeal so Im not ruling us out ..just not making us the obvious choice..

Good points, and that's fair. It all comes into his thinking.

I might be a bit simplistic on it, but I expect that if he is to leave, going to a club that he expects to win most weeks will be at the forefront of his thinking.

It does sound simple, but being at a club like NMFC for so long, I imagine it would be quite cathartic to be able to rock up on the weekend feeling like you're half a chance at walking away with the win, let alone actually making it a reality.

It's a wait and see with their age, but if they can bounce back in 2025, Collingwood should be able to offer this, and they've been open about their penchant for avoiding the draft and looking for readymade replacements.

Hawthorn I believe will be able too sell this as well, and I could see them being an attractive proposition to LDU as a team on the cusp, rather than a team potentially on the downward slope like the Pies. Only a small thing, but he also barracked for them as a kid.

Geelong are probably the happy medium of those two. He might not see the extreme youthful promise of Hawthorn (although we are doing quite well in that area ourselves), but he likely won't see the impending cliff of the Pies either.

Clubs like St Kilda or Melbourne are wildcards in a way, and it will most likely come down to money for them, although they could potentially surprise.

The worry for them though is LDU would have already gone through 8 years of small crowds and living off the promise of a better future at North, rather than the immediate satisfaction of tangible results.

Is he prepared to do that all over again for money? That remains to be seen.

It's all just estimation of course, and could all look irrelevant by round 10 next year though.

 

[Lana]

Till I see it operation Im not yet sure it will upscale the amount of trades long term. Short term maybe. For a while each club will have more to trade but then that will ease and demands will see players of the standard of Bailey Smith …. being asked to be traded for 2 r1’s.

We'll have to wait until the data catches up to the current situation, but I think it is easily trending that way.
At the moment the lack of liquidity is way too favoured on the side of bringing in players over draft picks.

We're seeing less and less one club players. Parker going to North one a three year deal rather than target 300 games as a Swan is a strong example of this. I think the increased salary cap will only push this further.

 

[Phill Hendo]

Good for Port. I would still take his as a rookie in this draft. I realise he is raw but is a bit older and a mature body. (I assume we are not drafting a good to go back up ruck.)

 

[ShadowCat]

There’s no way our future first gets us 15, 16, or 18. It could end up being 20+ next year after bids, best we can hope for is mid-20s.

Did you miss the part where I said '23' as well? Was completely speculative, from least likely to most likely, in descending order.

 

[foxdog50]

If the rumors are true that Zack Butters might be interested in coming to Geelong next year, then we will need to keep those future picks, so we have some capital to make a trade.

I don't know who the Cats will draft this year, but I trust our recruiting guys to do a good job. Their track record is pretty good.

Honestly if it's like all rumours on BigFooty it will be 99% bull of any chance Butters coming to Geelong

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Honestly if it's like all rumours on BigFooty it will be 99% bull of any chance Butters coming to Geelong

It is fun antagonising other fan bases over it though. Strike while the iron's hot

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

Honestly if it's like all rumours on BigFooty it will be 99% bull of any chance Butters coming to Geelong

Keep telling them Butters brought some property down the road from Bailey Smith. It keeps them frothing at the mouth.