Rumour GFC 2024 Player Trading, Drafting FA, Rumours and Wish lists Pt 3

[cats_09]

Here's 2024 Provisional AFL Draft Order

Cheers to Lore for their hard work in setting this up, and making it available for all users on BF to use and keep track of the picks ahead of the upcoming draft - and please practice patience grasshoppers if it's not updated in the immediate aftermath of completed trade





I'll also sticky this post to ensure it's easily accessible for discussion of our hypothetical trader


Also,

2024 Draft and Trade Period Key Dates​

Oct 17 to Nov 8: Pick swap window
Nov 1 to Nov 8: Delisted free agency period
Nov 20-21: Telstra AFL Draft
Nov 22: Telstra Pre-Season Draft and Rookie Draft

 

[year of the cat]

HS reporting (not that I think they are credible) that Geelong is keen on Smith (who will get matched) gerreyn and Dodson.
Gerreyn I could believe (although I suppose it's up to your perspective if you think having 3 WA ruck/kpf on the list is a big risk) although I reckon he may get to 45 anyway.
Dodson would be interesting-i rate him a lot talent wise the ceiling is huge but it would be unusual to trade a future 1st for a ruck (I think we would need to trade to early 20s to get him) unless we think Conway's foot is cooked. We need more of a short term ruck for next year (hence my asking for a mature ruck late in the draft or ssp) than we do a long term one unless we are planning on Conway being injured or Edwards not being here.

Which is super silly

Appears that the club (and I) don’t think so if that HS report is accurate (though they may be referring to our F2 being added to 45 but I doubt that’s sufficient to move too far up the draft board).

I’m a little surprised that we’d be interested in Dodson unless Conway’s medical reports are troubling.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Appears that the club (and I) don’t think so if that HS report is accurate (though they may be referring to our F2 being added to 45 but I doubt that’s sufficient to move too far up the draft board).

I’m a little surprised that we’d be interested in Dodson unless Conway’s medical reports are troubling.

You really wouldn't chase Dodson (I think he will be a good ruck or blicavs type utility in time but I'm not sure he has the footy IQ to be a good kpf so the fit with Conway would be questionable) unless you felt either Conway was cooked physically or you think Edwards will ask to go back to WA when his deal is up.

F2 plus 45 would only get us into the early 30s I reckon and I'd assume guys like Dodson go in the 20s.

 

[Lana]

HS reporting (not that I think they are credible) that Geelong is keen on Smith (who will get matched) gerreyn and Dodson.
Gerreyn I could believe (although I suppose it's up to your perspective if you think having 3 WA ruck/kpf on the list is a big risk) although I reckon he may get to 45 anyway.
Dodson would be interesting-i rate him a lot talent wise the ceiling is huge but it would be unusual to trade a future 1st for a ruck (I think we would need to trade to early 20s to get him) unless we think Conway's foot is cooked. We need more of a short term ruck for next year (hence my asking for a mature ruck late in the draft or ssp) than we do a long term one unless we are planning on Conway being injured or Edwards not being here.

With drafting odd are it takes 3 to get 1, we don't really have any short term needs on our list that will be solved at the draft, might as well bank talls.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Appears that the club (and I) don’t think so if that HS report is accurate (though they may be referring to our F2 being added to 45 but I doubt that’s sufficient to move too far up the draft board).

I’m a little surprised that we’d be interested in Dodson unless Conway’s medical reports are troubling.

I'm pretty ambivalent at this time of year, and trust the club over my own judgement when it comes to the information they have versus us on most occasions.

I gotta say though, three early-ish picks in 4 years on number 1 ruckman feels like mismanagement.

As Pure_Ownage points out, we probably do need a ruckman, but we need one who can bridge us from point A to point B for a couple years until Conway and/or Edwards at ready.

I just feel like adding yet another raw ruckman who's unlikely to impact for 3-4 years is a waste of assets, with us almost certainly needing to trade up. Happy to be proven wrong though.

The list isn't in such good shape that we can afford to just keep looking at what many would consider a luxury purchase of a position.

 

[FishGutz]

The trading our future st isn’t surprising to me at all but the name Dodson instead of Hotton surprises me. Unless I’m hard for hearing but this report looks to be pretty spot on. Would be Geelong leaking it as well to make clubs aware they’re making a move.


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[CatToTheFuture]

HS reporting (not that I think they are credible) that Geelong is keen on Smith (who will get matched) gerreyn and Dodson.
Gerreyn I could believe (although I suppose it's up to your perspective if you think having 3 WA ruck/kpf on the list is a big risk) although I reckon he may get to 45 anyway.
Dodson would be interesting-i rate him a lot talent wise the ceiling is huge but it would be unusual to trade a future 1st for a ruck (I think we would need to trade to early 20s to get him) unless we think Conway's foot is cooked. We need more of a short term ruck for next year (hence my asking for a mature ruck late in the draft or ssp) than we do a long term one unless we are planning on Conway being injured or Edwards not being here.

Always happy to bid on an academy kid

 

[MacStradbroke]

HS reporting (not that I think they are credible) that Geelong is keen on Smith (who will get matched) gerreyn and Dodson.
Gerreyn I could believe (although I suppose it's up to your perspective if you think having 3 WA ruck/kpf on the list is a big risk) although I reckon he may get to 45 anyway.
Dodson would be interesting-i rate him a lot talent wise the ceiling is huge but it would be unusual to trade a future 1st for a ruck (I think we would need to trade to early 20s to get him) unless we think Conway's foot is cooked. We need more of a short term ruck for next year (hence my asking for a mature ruck late in the draft or ssp) than we do a long term one unless we are planning on Conway being injured or Edwards not being here.

Dodson is very mobile, like him, decent upside. Stanley and Blicavs have been mobile rucks for ten plus years now and they have the number trait that keeps getting a mention…availability. Surprised we’re linked all the same.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Linked to Smith and Dodson?

Perhaps the journo was at the SA vs Allies match and overheard someone Geelong linked say they liked the ruckman with the number 40 on his back.

Not knowing which one he's just listed both

 

[Oisin_the_Goat]

Dodson is very mobile, like him, decent upside. Stanley and Blicavs have been mobile rucks for ten plus years now and they have the number trait that keeps getting a mention…availability. Surprised we’re linked all the same.

The best ABILITY is availABILITY

 

[year of the cat]

Dodson name could be a ruse. Happy to trust the club but I would have thought a key forward was a much higher priority. Unless they think Edwards is likely to develop into a forward who can ruck rather than the reverse.

 

[Turbocat]

Without knowing what we would have to give up to add him … Dodson would seem a good add to me. more of the type we like than adding anotehr heavy set ruck when we have Conway.

I like the idea of adding the best talent and developing them and let them fight it out. We have not had much luck with rucks but if we keep adding them it will turn. It would be ironic if we ended up with three all demanding games. One thing is a known is that rucks tend to be very tradable so I doubt the pick would be a flush and no matter what we hope for all the players on our list , they are only committed till the end of their contract … so there is nothing that say Edwards or whoever is on our list long term

I agree he would help almost zero short term. There is no reason why we could not add a 26 year old as a Rookie etc if thats a requirement … we lost multiple players of our list with ruck/kpp height so adding two is not an issue to me. If we trade picks to get him ..it would just indicate that the club see someone like him as a high potential thats rarely available.

 

[Turbocat]

Always happy to bid on an academy kid

Not against it but what the chance of success. Id think GWS would take him anything after R1.

 

[strauchnyy]

HS reporting (not that I think they are credible) that Geelong is keen on Smith (who will get matched) gerreyn and Dodson.
Gerreyn I could believe (although I suppose it's up to your perspective if you think having 3 WA ruck/kpf on the list is a big risk) although I reckon he may get to 45 anyway.
Dodson would be interesting-i rate him a lot talent wise the ceiling is huge but it would be unusual to trade a future 1st for a ruck (I think we would need to trade to early 20s to get him) unless we think Conway's foot is cooked. We need more of a short term ruck for next year (hence my asking for a mature ruck late in the draft or ssp) than we do a long term one unless we are planning on Conway being injured or Edwards not being here.

Agree.

Zero sense going for Dodson when we’ve drafted Conway and edwards. Only 1 of those 3 can play in the team in the future, making 2 wasted redundant picks. It would mean we believe Conway and edwards are busts which would be a big failure.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

With drafting odd are it takes 3 to get 1, we don't really have any short term needs on our list that will be solved at the draft, might as well bank talls.

The smalls are more likely to impact sooner and talls long term. But we clearly need talls given Stanley and blitz won't be there after 2025, Cameron is in his 30s and kolo not far off. Edwards and Conway have question marks body wise and neale aren't signed past next year.
I would split the difference and take a couple of good development talls (a kpf and a kpd like Barrat would be an ideal pair) and a couple of mature agers-henderson plus possibly a mature runner or mature ruck would be ideal. That way you cover short and long term.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

The trading our future st isn’t surprising to me at all but the name Dodson instead of Hotton surprises me. Unless I’m hard for hearing but this report looks to be pretty spot on. Would be Geelong leaking it as well to make clubs aware they’re making a move.


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There's no benefit to Geelong leaking it (unless it's a misdirect to distract clubs as to who we really want) as if you assume clubs like Sydney and Richmond are auctioning their 20s picks off other clubs have fr1s that are perceived to be more attractive than ours as an offer, so we can be outbid. I've still heard Geelong are pretty keen on hotton but he is probably going to be gone by the dogs pick and I doubt we can trade in earlier than that.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Agree.

Zero sense going for Dodson when we’ve drafted Conway and edwards. Only 1 of those 3 can play in the team in the future, making 2 wasted redundant picks. It would mean we believe Conway and edwards are busts which would be a big failure.

I partially agree.
I think Dodson has real scope and his ceiling is very high. But traditionally guys late to footy don't do best as kpf because it requires a lot of footy iq. He's probably more likely to excel as a ruck or a kpd where he can use his athletic prowess plus his ability below his knees to impact. So it might be hard to keep him and Conway together-so do we believe Toby is crocked?

Edwards is different because he's not ready yet (even further back than Conway with body) and we might not think he's a bust but maybe we think he won't stay? It depends how far out you think Geelong would forward plan things like chasing Reid or a similar player in WA.

We definitely need talls as most of what we have are over 30 but id take a kpf and kpd before I took a ruck even though Dodson is the best ruck in the class. It does depend who is available though as we are picking late and sometimes you just must take talent regardless of position. What I will say is Geelong like unicorn rucks not lumberers and Dodson is a unicorn so IF we go ruck he's the type we like. But honestly someone like Richmond should probably grab him in the top 20 anyway.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Always happy to bid on an academy kid

Fair but zero chance gws aren't taking Smith with pressure gone. If we are bidding on academy guys I'd rather make it someone like Gillett who might not get matched.

 

[FishGutz]

There's no benefit to Geelong leaking it (unless it's a misdirect to distract clubs as to who we really want) as if you assume clubs like Sydney and Richmond are auctioning their 20s picks off other clubs have fr1s that are perceived to be more attractive than ours as an offer, so we can be outbid. I've still heard Geelong are pretty keen on hotton but he is probably going to be gone by the dogs pick and I doubt we can trade in earlier than that.

Yeah that’s what I was getting at with my lazily written post. That perhaps there’s some smoke and mirrors on who our target is and if we start leaking info it works in our favour because other clubs might either scramble and reach or not try and leverage their pick and make a verbal agreement with a pick trade before the night if such and such is gone or still there. I know for a fact it’s been that we are going to try our best to trade into this year’s draft with our future first but the word I got was Hotton. Dodson seems a curve ball but it might also have merit.


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[PeasFC]

Yeah that’s what I was getting at with my lazily written post. That perhaps there’s some smoke and mirrors on who our target is and if we start leaking info it works in our favour because other clubs might either scramble and reach or not try and leverage their pick and make a verbal agreement with a pick trade before the night if such and such is gone or still there. I know for a fact it’s been that we are going to try our best to trade into this year’s draft with our future first but the word I got was Hotton. Dodson seems a curve ball but it might also have merit.


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When we traded up for Holmes, we had not been linked to the player. I suspect it would be our strategy again to keep quiet on who we really want. That being said, we do need to have conversations with clubs that might entertain a pick swap. These conversations absolutely would get leaked… “Geelong are keen to trade up”. Then journos and others try to think about who that might be for. Hence links to Horton, Dodson, Clarke. Most likely, it’s only Mackie and co who know. If we trade up, I’ll back the club that they believe player x is worth whatever pick, even if we miss finals next year.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

When we traded up for Holmes, we had not been linked to the player. I suspect it would be our strategy again to keep quiet on who we really want. That being said, we do need to have conversations with clubs that might entertain a pick swap. These conversations absolutely would get leaked… “Geelong are keen to trade up”. Then journos and others try to think about who that might be for. Hence links to Horton, Dodson, Clarke. Most likely, it’s only Mackie and co who know. If we trade up, I’ll back the club that they believe player x is worth whatever pick, even if we miss finals next year.

The Holmes links were there, but it was late in the piece and the word was we would take him with 28, which pushed to 32 becoming the Neale pick.

Holmes was bolting though, and we caught wind that Melbourne were going to cut our lunch, so we traded up.

Could all be an irrelevant smokescreen too, but that would be the similarity with Dodson/Holmes with the links coming just before the draft occurs.

Come to think of it, for all the 'Wells smokey' stuff we believe in, we've actually been pretty easy to telegraph in recent years with our early picks.

All of SDK, Stephens, Holmes, Knevitt, Conway, Clark, & COS were showing up in mock drafts for us before the draft, or we were linked to them heavily in the write-ups.

Some of that might just be lazy journalism that got lucky by naming the local kid on pure coincidence, or maybe we're just not as coy as we once were?

The Wells smokey late in the piece that nobody has heard of will always be there...but with the invites to the first round of the draft these days and the hyper focus around it, it's getting easier and easier to figure out who is likely to go where.