Review Hamish 2021
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It's a funny one with Hamish. He's been pretty decent with plucking out some later draft gems, but his strike rate at the top of the draft is starting to look rougher and rougher. It's tough, as a rebuilding side, to have no-one on our list that I'd consider in the best '22 under 22' side in the comp
I'd hope, over this rebuild, to have picked up at least one elite forward and one elite midfielder to build around. Obviously tough to judge who will fit that mould yet, as we've still got some guys to develop, but a few of our recent draftees would want to kick on sooner rather than later
I'd hope, over this rebuild, to have picked up at least one elite forward and one elite midfielder to build around. Obviously tough to judge who will fit that mould yet, as we've still got some guys to develop, but a few of our recent draftees would want to kick on sooner rather than later
I've always thought that a guy like Hamish, needs a guy a like Rendell to challenge and give an alternative perspective.
At the top end Hamish clearly goes for a particular type, let's call it statistically safe. I think he feels the pressure of big picks and would pick the safer option 9 times out of 10. The problem is these statistically safe players may have good numbers across a variety of categories but nothing really elite. These good to very good traits haven't developed into elite traits at AFL level for us.
We seem to ignore the player who appears to have elite talent and star potential, but has been less consistent at junior level. These players are perhaps higher risks, but higher reward type players. Rendell probably would have taken the risk.
I think having strong opposing opinions like that is what our recruitment team actually needs, rather than the group think that it probably has at the moment.
At the top end Hamish clearly goes for a particular type, let's call it statistically safe. I think he feels the pressure of big picks and would pick the safer option 9 times out of 10. The problem is these statistically safe players may have good numbers across a variety of categories but nothing really elite. These good to very good traits haven't developed into elite traits at AFL level for us.
We seem to ignore the player who appears to have elite talent and star potential, but has been less consistent at junior level. These players are perhaps higher risks, but higher reward type players. Rendell probably would have taken the risk.
I think having strong opposing opinions like that is what our recruitment team actually needs, rather than the group think that it probably has at the moment.
It could just be there's traits he overvalues in players, ones that mean we pick certain guys too early, but also allows us to pick up players later others might ignore.
We seem to ignore physical attributes quite a lot, which has caused us to take small midfielders with no physical standout traits, but ignoring those things later in the draft gets us a Rory Laird for example where other teams may say he was too small to make it.
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Darcy Fogarty doesn't fit that bill?
Lever didn't fit that bill?
Even Milera goes close to fitting that bill and Tom Doedee most certainly does.
Scorpus
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I actually think the opposite. We overvalue physical and psychological traits and undervalue football ability. Eg we end up with Combine stars (Gallucci) and guys with elite physical attributes (eg McHenry's big tank) and the classic "comes from a good family" over the outright best all-round footballer
Unsure on this. Guys like Fogarty, Milera, Worrell etc I'd argue were picked on untapped footballing ability and talent. Although it could be said that each of those guys were, at the time of drafting, 'too good to pass up' according to where they were predicted to be selected
jackster83
The Feats of Strength
A lot of our early picks seem to be absolute guns at 16, but have tapered off in their draft year (or missed with injury).
Scorpus
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Looking back on our drafting I'd say there are only a small handful of players drafted on raw football star power and potential. I'd have Fogarty as one.
There's actually a couple of examples where I think we overlooked the risky potential star for the safe player with the physical or "good bloke" traits we wanted. I'd have Milera, Gallucci, Jones and McHenry all in that category. I think McAsey will end up there as well although too early to tell on that draft.
what I should also say, or clarify is that Richmond reject the talent order.
they don’t have a defined talent order like some clubs, they have a type. And that plays a role.
where there type doesn’t exactly match the assumed talent order, they rely on their development team to round off the rough edge to get that player up to snuff
that’s nothing like what we appear to do. We seem to value character and certain personality traits - which is not in anyway the same as a ‘Richmond type’.
their type is based on playing characteristics, not their family life
this guy “plays” like a Richmond player
Vs.
This guys comes from a “good family”
every club plucks decent players late in the draft or from the rookie list. That’s a given
we overrate Hamish’s late round successes because we don’t recognise that every club has a few of them.
our early picks, the high talent injections have failed miserably. That is not something any team with aspirations of success can endure successfully
Not sure on that. If you watched Milera and Jones at U18 level, you'd definitely say they had some kind of 'star traits' (maybe not risky, but at the top end of the draft it's hard to call any pick super risky). Milera with his run and carry/goalkicking and Jones with just having a balanced inside/outside game that you more often than not see in star midfielders. Just because they haven't developed into top-line players, doesn't mean that they never had the traits or exposed form to call them simply a physical or "good bloke"-based pick
It is certainly true that a lot of people on here underplay the value of the guy making the final call
Rendell was very good at taking whatever information was fed into the process and making actual good decisions
Hamish, for whatever reason, hasn’t been able to relocate that success with his decision making
the buck stops with the guy making the call. Not the subordinates feeding in opinions
no that’s not right.
Of course first round picks have talent, but that’s not the same as saying they have elite traits
given the fail rate in first round picks is still probably 50% or higher they can certainly still be called risky picks
Scorpus
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I'm more specifically talking about drafting Milera over Charlie Curnow and Jones over Caldwell, who were the very next picks in each of those drafts.
Milera has good qualities, but we passed over a player who in my opinion has clear top-line star power. Unfortunately Curnow ended up injury prone, but I don't think he is the sort of character we were after.
In 2018 a lot of draft watchers were calling Caldwell the superior, better skilled footballer, but had risks due to injury issues. Jones is your classic safe pick, comes from a good family, has pace as a physical trait, etc. We chose to pass on the risky (allegedly) higher skilled midfielder for the talented but safer pick.
I don't think we necessarily have gotten these calls wrong on every occasion, but in my opinion we do have a "type" under Hamish which is on the safer end of the scale.
See where you're coming from on the first point, but even considering that, we've probably had a higher success rate late/rookie draft than most clubs?
C Cameron, Kelly, ROB, Hartigan, Atkins, Murphy, Sholl, Butts off the top of my head during Hamish's tenure (not counting Greenwood/Keath as they were targeted outside the draft). Can't think of a team that's done better, other than Richmond and Sydney?
Scorpus
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However what I will say is I also think Rendell's record is overrated. He was decent but not a god tier recruiter that some make him out to be. He had two big successes with Dangerfield and Sloane but the rest of his picks were standard
Drafting guys like Jacky, Myke Cook, McKernan, Shaw, Kerridge, Grigg, Joyce is nothing to write home about. The majority of his rookie picks were (at best) role players, except for Laird. Some carved out good careers but his overall 2nd round record and later is inferior to Hamish in my opinion
I'd also class Jack Gunston's selection as a fail given he left immediately. Same reasoning many would call the McAsey pick a fail if he leaves immediately.
His other first rounders were Davis, Talia and Smith which are very good picks but more what you'd typically expect from a mid first round selection
Drafting guys like Jacky, Myke Cook, McKernan, Shaw, Kerridge, Grigg, Joyce is nothing to write home about. The majority of his rookie picks were (at best) role players, except for Laird. Some carved out good careers but his overall 2nd round record and later is inferior to Hamish in my opinion
I'd also class Jack Gunston's selection as a fail given he left immediately. Same reasoning many would call the McAsey pick a fail if he leaves immediately.
His other first rounders were Davis, Talia and Smith which are very good picks but more what you'd typically expect from a mid first round selection
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I still believe our most pressing failure over at least the last 10 years is not so much who we draft - which is always speculative - but our failure to develop so many of them. Once they're in the door they're not speculative any more. Reviewing draft picks in hindsight needs to be more holistic. Look at Chayce Jones - he looked good in his first few games, straight out of the draft. Over time, since he's been at club, he's gotten worse with every year. Is that Hamish's fault? Or is that player development?
It's hard to find more than a couple of first-round prospects every year that would be considered high-risk, high-reward at the time - by that, I mean risk due to injury/perceived character, but high-end game-breaking talent with elite traits. Hollands was one last year due to injury, possibly Perkins due to go home factor. Not sure I'd call any other selection around where we took Thilthorpe and Pedlar 'risky' (or what I'd define risky anyway)
In addition, if you look at the traditional fail rate in first-round picks as a factor, that's bringing a lot of hindsight into it. By that definition, you could call 95% of picks 'risky', as every prospect comes with their warts which might mean they don't make it at AFL level
A lot of it obviously comes down to development/situation etc as well, but that's a given
Milera had some game-breaking performances at senior SANFL level in 2015. If you watched him that year, you'd argue he might have had some of the highest star power, and especially 'wow factor' in the draft with his sublime skills. Caldwell I'll admit was, in my opinion, a more game-breaking midfielder than Jones, but it's hard to say Caldwell was riskier than Jones due to injuries, when in fact Jones had some of his own serious ankle problems in the two years leading up to the draft
Personally, I'm not sure we have a 'type' - our first-rounders have seen us select both high-talent types as well as some 'safer' picks, as you say. IIRC Hamish said he would've selected Rayner at 1 in 2017, even as being seen as one of the more 'boom or bust' types out of that top group of players selected (Brayshaw, Dow, LDU, Cerra). We've carved out a pretty even balance I reckon, and the reality is (with any high selection), sometimes they work out, sometimes they don't
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Milera had star written all over him post SANFL finals
FR0GGY
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What?
He’s had one game at the end of 2019, against the bulldogs where he looked any good.
Go back and look at the last preseason match and his first few rounds as a pressure forward in 2019. He didn't come straight into the side for nothing.
