- May 28, 2013
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I would be shocked if you took that. I would go after ess 2026 1st rounder. This draft 10 will end up close to 15.
Speculation Harley Reid [OOC 2026]
- Thread starter Sphynx
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- Thread starter
- #2,428
It entirely depends on Reid’s year tbh.
He can be acclaimed as the second coming by all and sundry, but he’s not demanding 3 R1 picks if he doesn’t play like that player.
Aside from getting multiple concussions or getting in some outside footy drama(drugs/police) theres not much he can do to drop his value down to a top 5 + a top 10 pick this year.
He will cost more than that.
Strong disagree
Hes still the same player, the fact hes in a poor side which is getting poor results wont detract from his value - which is basically what you are doing.
Hes never looked disinterested btw, distracted by oppo getting stuck into him is not the same as disinterest
The outside players who play in sides that focus on outside ball tend to, not the contested players
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- #2,435
Give me some examples?
Who is currently a top 50 player that might have fit that description that didn’t perform exceptionally from the get go with high expectations?
Go back yourself and look at recent drafts.
Find me any contested mids who matched expectations in their first 2 seasons in poor sides
All the mids who played well are mids who either had 3-4 other good mids ahead of them, or played outside roles. All of them.
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- #2,437
That wasn’t what I asked though.
You don’t find a generational midfielder who is demanding 3 x R1 draft picks every draft for the last 4 years.
JHF played his second season at Port and Daicos and Sheezel both progressed into the middle in their second years. Different players to Reid though.
Rowell (prior to injury), Anderson, Oliver didn’t suck ass in a second year etc.
Now I’m not saying Reid will, it was purely a hypothetical in what could occur to lower his value. If he has a shit year, it will raise plenty of question marks about him.
Rowell may be the best comparison. He looked absolutely phenomenal prior to injury, then had a few down years. If he moved back to Melbourne 2 seasons ago, he wouldn’t have demanded anywhere near the same value as what he would have after those first 5-6 games.
Thats the idea, you dont find a Reid every year. You have to pay up MORE than what pick 1 is worth, pick 5 and 10 isnt worth more than pick 1 in any year there is a standout pick 1, let alone a pick 1 like Reid.
Reid has only increased his value, he wouldve been a clear rising star winner playing inside mid, something NO other first year(18 year old) teenager does as much as he did.
You are trying to downplay what hes done, he hasnt been an incredible professional with his off field stuff and he STILL did what he did despite the disadvantage.
- Thread starter
- #2,439
Err?
There’s been plenty of equally as impressive ball winning mids as Reid in his first season.
Rowell, Jaeger, Serong, Bont were excellent.
Depends how you want to classify Cripps, he played 3 games,es in his first season.
Then he averaged 24 touches and 7 clearances a game in his next 23.
Bontempelli is the highest rated 19 year old since they’ve been doing their ratings in his second season and was in CD top 10 players of 2015.
That is the benchmark and my entire point.
I’m of the opposite opinion regarding Reid. He’s nowhere near as bullet proof a prospect as what he was built up as 18 months ago.
He’s going to be a fantastic player and probably one of the best in the comp. Guaranteed best in the league type? Not the guarantee he was 18 months ago imo.
Ill give you Rowell who only lasted a couple of games before succumbing to injury. Wouldve got 3 first rounders for him too back then tbh.
The others werent the main inside mids in their sides, they were several mids back in the pecking order, Reid was the #1 or #2 contested mid depending if Yeo was playing, and Yeo missed a good chunk last year.
Those mids back in the pecking order dont have the same responsibility, and can play outside/get free a lot more, like Ashcroft for example(hes in a good side though).
Which of those guys you listed was copping tags only a few games into their career?
Dom sheed pocket
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- Aug 15, 2023
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Don't really want to get involved but the bolded bit is interesting.
Bontempelli averaged 11.70 AFL rating points from 16 games in his first season.
Reid averages 11.28 from 20 (from a peak of 14.00 about half way through the season) in his first season.
Given their close rating at the same age, it becomes a far more concrete proposition.
What would a club need to give up to secure a trade for a 20 year old Bontgempelli?
That's the kind of collateral a club will need in order to get Reid this year.
As an FYI - Serong averaged 8.04, Rowell only played 5 games (3 of which were excellent).
- Thread starter
- #2,442
You are exaggerating again.
Reid attended the 3rd most center bounces per game for WC last year behind both Kelly and Yeo.
Kelly and Yeo averaged more clearances and more contested possessions than him.
I don’t see how you can claim Reid was the #1 contested mid at the club last year.
Yeo played 20 games, exactly the same amount of games as Reid.
- Thread starter
- #2,443
Sure, if you traded Reid 12 weeks ago……
You are making my point.
If Reid goes and ups his average to 17 per game, is deemed the best 19 year old in history, a top 10 player in the league, is an AA, like the Bont did in his second season…
Yeah, he’s worth every bit of the 3 x R1 picks.
On the same basis, what’s he worth if he averages 18 touches a game and is rated at 11 again? Compared to Bontempelli as that example? Or Cripps exploding into one of the best inside mids in the league in his second season?
It’s exactly what I’m saying, he needs to have a really strong season to maintain the reputation.
Kelly is not an inside mid, when he is who the Eagles have to rely on we cant do anything.
Yeo is/was the only one ahead of Reid.
I dont think you understand what im on about.
Do you know what constitutes a contested possession? Do you know what constitutes a clearance?
Blokes like Daicos rack up those stats but hes not an inside contested mid, he plays on the outside and runs through contests while others do the hard work for him.
Reid was our primary contested mid when Yeo wasnt in the side, or Yeo was on the bench.
Yeo still missed 3 games, while playing low TOG. Thats a good chunk of the year
- Thread starter
- #2,445
Yes I understand the difference between a loose ball get and a hard ball get and how they correlate to CP
It might be you who is misunderstanding which one is more valued.
AFL clubs, recruiters and data analysts want and value loose ball get dominant CP players over hard ball get dominant CP players at the moment. And have done for years.
And I don’t really know what angle you are going for? Tim Kelly who averages almost 6 clearances including 2 center clearances a game, was the Eagles #1 attended center square midfielder last year. Has a 50% CP ratio and the Eagles #1 contested ball winner isn’t an “inside mid”… OK
That’s purely your defintion then. It’d be like me saying LDU isn’t technically an inside mid and Wardlaw is our #1 inside contested mid because he wins loose balls with his pace and his 8 clearances a game are irrelevant because of it….
Dom sheed pocket
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What's happened in the last 12 weeks that has so dramatically impacted his value? He's played one (poor) game.
Player value isn't trading stock that wildly fluctuates week to week.
At the moment based on his body of work, Harley is probably the most valuable asset in football. Certainly the most valuable of any asset that is reasonably attainable, that won't change that much based on a poor game here or there.
Like I said, I don't plan on getting too involved in this thread, but you're clearly suffering from some post jhf stress disorder and projecting.
- Thread starter
- #2,448
Nothing has happened.
I made the comment that his performances this year will somewhat dictate his value.
The other poster refuted that and said even with a poor year his value won’t change, as it’s typical of other inside midfielders of the same age.
Bont and Cripps being obviously examples of that not being the case.
If Reid has a comparable second year to Bont and Cripps, he will absolutely get the kings ransom.
- May 28, 2013
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Yes he will. JHF still got us a good haul on the back of a woeful year.
LDU isnt the same type of player as Kelly, Kelly is a pure outside mid/half forward who is forced to play in the middle.
You seem hellbent on justifying how Reid isnt worth more than pick 1 on its own for some reason, grasping a bit too and changing the direction of this argument to the makeup of the Eagles midfield.
Ill start again.
No other mid (other than rowell) has gone into the midfield and played full time CBAs like Reid did in their first season as an 18 year old, and performed as well as he did, despite Reids lack of professionalism off the field and tendency to get distracted by opposition getting into him.
That much is true.
We know Reids ceiling is the best player in the comp, he has already shown in patches that he is already capable of it.
Some maturity is all he needs, clubs will 100% pay what many fans consider overs for as close to a guaranteed asset at 19 years old as there ever has been.
