Has Competitive Equalisation created a need for wild-card finals?

[justlookingaround]

Over the last decade we have seen effects of the AFL's Competitive Equalisation efforts tighten the ladder and make for a much more even competition. The Bulldogs famously won their 2016 flag from 7th position in 2016, a year in which only two wins separated 1st from 7th on the ladder. The Giants made a run to the Grand Final after also finishing 7th three years later in 2019. More and more the gulf is shrinking between the good enough and the not quite there yet, with factors like fixturing, double-ups and tough starts having a massive effect on final ladder positions.

With the addition of Tasmania and a probable 20th team in the next ~10 years, we will see 12 teams miss finals every year. Many of them will hold a positive win/loss record, even now 12 wins and 10 losses is not enough to secure a spot in the finals. In 2018 four seperate clubs missed finals with a 12/10 win loss record.

2024 is shaping up to be another tight year on the ladder, possibly more so than ever before. Right now nearing the pointy end of the season we have only 6 points, or a game and a half, separating 3rd and 13th spots on the ladder. Hawthorn and the Bulldogs, two of the form teams of the competition sit in 13th and 9th spot respectively, both with a positive win/loss record.

We are going to see some good teams miss out on finals. Teams that could at the very least challenge those above them. With the pre-finals bye resulting in top 4 teams being twice as likely to drop out in straight sets, and the increased probability of lower finishing teams making preliminary finals and the Grand Final, it is no longer a case in which the lower half of the 8 is simply making up the numbers.

Is it time for the AFL to implement a Wild Card finals round to take place in what is now the pre-finals bye week, with matches between 7th vs 10th and 8th vs 9th to decide who faces 5th and 6th in the Elimination Finals?

 

[Fadge]

Great idea.

In fact, it's probably not too late for Andrew and Laura to introduce it for 2024...

 

[Underarm]

Do you mean a final 10?

And no.

 

[captain blood 17]

Or, we could get rid of stand, 6/6/6 and ruck nominations and leave the finals system as it is currently. Just saying.

 

[Rob]

How is it a wildcard? You're just making it a top 10.

 

[justlookingaround]

How is it a wildcard? You're just making it a top 10.

It would essentially be keeping the current final 8 system, while adding an extra round prior to it to decide its fixture.
Call it what you want: 'wild card' 'play-in' 'top-10' ... it's all just semantics.

 

[HairyO]

We need a round robin finals system where the bottom 10 teams play eachother twice, the top 8 teams play eachother twice.

The 6 highest top 8 teams go through to the 3rd stage, the bottom 2 top 8 teams play the top 2 bottom end teams in a best of 3 stage 2. The top 2 teams go to stage 3.

All stage 3 games are best of 7 with the top 4 going through to the Preliminary finals series with the first 2 teams to win 4 games progressing to the Final finals week. 7 games in 7 days in 7 cities.

All in Victoria of course.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Just do it like the NBA on the bye weekend. 7th v 10th and 8th v 9th

 

[Struggle]

Have a wild card weekend, send all 4 teams home after it and start a final 6 the next week

 

[Underarm]

Just do it like the NBA on the bye weekend. 7th v 10th and 8th v 9th

Hardly a Bye if you have to play...

 

[Nugett]

Why not have a final 16? 1st plays 16th, 2nd vs 15th ect. Have it as a knock out. For the other 2 teams they get a participation medal for playing out the season.

 

[Taylor]

The purpose of having double ups within the bracket of 6-6-6 so middle and low teams play the middle and low teams from the last year more often and the top teams from last year play the top teams more is doing exactly what it's meant to.

The AFL wanted exactly this. It's the point. They want the season to be live until the end of the year, not basically set with a month to go.

 

[RonnieRaven]

With 18 and soon to be 19 teams
8th vs 9th in the pre final bye weekend would work
Top 7 get a week off
Until there’s 20 teams you can’t reward 10th with a shot at the title.
Once there’s 20 teams happy to have 7v10 8v9 and top 6 get a bye week 1 of 5 week finals series.
No different to the top 8 in a 16 team comp which was the standard for a fair while

 

[LordLucifer]

 

[BF Tiger]

Please no.

We don't need the prospect of a 1st v 10th GF, with 1st playing their third game in five weeks while 10th might be playing their 10th game in 10 weeks.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Go back to the Five, make finals elite again

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

No.

Eight is more than enough finalists unless we go beyond 24 teams at some point. Most years there are only 3-4 realistic chances and the rest are basically making up the numbers.
If the point of finals is to determine a premier (as opposed to the actual point of raking in the moola), with a balanced fixture a top four or five would be enough. With all the imbalances, eight allows for some leeway.

 

[daniel_4tw]

Whatever they do, we need more finals games.

Going from 4 games, 2 games, 2 games, 1 game, with the top team maybe only playing twice in 3 weeks, is so anticlimactic.

I say we go to a best of 3. Home, away, home. More $ for everyone, more fans able to see their team, AFL can let teams play at their actual home ground etc.

 

[Walshawk]

No. Current finals system is excellent.

 

[bradfisher14]

Another final for Essendon to lose?

Sign me up.

 

[skinnyP]

N

O

 

[AndyD]

It would essentially be keeping the current final 8 system, while adding an extra round prior to it to decide its fixture.
Call it what you want: 'wild card' 'play-in' 'top-10' ... it's all just semantics.

I’d call it giving teams who weren’t worthy enough to meet the original qualifying criteria given another chance simply because the AFL could make some more money from the additional game?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[justlookingaround]

I’d call it giving teams who weren’t worthy enough to meet the original qualifying criteria given another chance simply because the AFL could make some more money from the additional game?

This is the crux of the argument. Equalisation has landed the competition in a spot in which the gap between teams that qualify and teams that miss out has become miniscule. Adelaide last year quite literally missed finals due to a bogus goal umpire call. I don't think the top 10/wild-card round is necessary in the 18 team competition - but once there are 20 teams I think it will be for the better.

 

[peetoo]

Make it a final 6

 

[Billy ray]

just make it 2 side by side final 5's - the best ever finals formula - when tassie start