Opinion Has this Carlton list already peaked?

[WalshistheGOAT]

I wasn't necessarily saying they were old. I was just comparing them to Richmond in 2016. What did Richmond's core look like at the end of 2016 when they were just about to open a four year premiership window?

Prestia - 24
Nankervis - 24
Dusty - 25
Cotchin - 26
Rance - 27
Riewoldt - 28
Grigg - 28

I still think Richmond were younger at the end of 2016 than Carlton are right now. Carlton seem to be right in the middle of it and maybe have another year or two before it drops away, like others have suggested in this thread.

Overall that Richmond team was younger than the current Blues outfit, but I believe with the post season changes we've made we'd be right around that same mark. Will just be with our senior core being a year or two older than most of their Richmond counterparts.

Where I disagree is our future prospects, we'll have pick 3 coming in this year along with a couple of later kids and the likely pick 1 favourite in 2026. I think with a few other promising youngsters developing well enough we should be in a great spot for the next 5-6 years. When Curnow, Mckay and Weitering retire (hopefully around that 32-34 age range)
is when we'll really hit some trouble imo.

 

[GC2015]

Overall that Richmond team was younger than the current Blues outfit, but I believe with the post season changes we've made we'd be right around that same mark. Will just be with our senior core being a year or two older than most of their Richmond counterparts.

Where I disagree is our future prospects, we'll have pick 3 coming in this year along with a couple of later kids and the likely pick 1 favourite in 2026. I think with a few other promising youngsters developing well enough we should be in a great spot for the next 5-6 years. When Curnow, Mckay and Weitering retire (hopefully around that 32-34 age range)
is when we'll really hit some trouble imo.

This is another point of distinction between Richmond in 2016 and Carlon in 2024. The Tigers used their 2016 pick 6 to secure a 24 year old Dion Prestia (who was about to enter his physical prime) and he had an immediate impact in Richmond's run to the premiership in 2017. I suppose you could argue Carlton had a similar opportunity with Dan Houston this off season, but that didn't eventuate and they secured pick 3.

Was it the right move? Richmond drafted Shai Bolton in 2016 and although he ended up becoming a great contributor for them, it didn't happen straight away. Bolton didn't play in the 2017 flag. Maybe pick 3 for Carlton will be different but I'd guess it's pretty unlikely that we're going to see that player significantly contribute in his first year or two at the Blues. I'm sure Walker will also be great when they draft him in 2026 but will it be too late by then? By that point you're looking at most of those core guys you listed being in their 30s when the 2027 season begins.

I personally think Carlton should have gone after high quality players in their prime / entering their prime instead of prioritising a high end draft pick this off season. Look at who Collingwood recruited at the end of 2022 when they went from prelim finalists to premiers - 23 year old Bobby Hill, 27 year old Dan McStay and a 29 year old Tom Mitchell. They went for it and it paid off. Just like Richmond did at the end of 2016 with players like 24 year old Prestia and 23 year old Nankervis being brought in.

 

[Robertio]

This is another point of distinction between Richmond in 2016 and Carlon in 2024. The Tigers used their 2016 pick 6 to secure a 24 year old Dion Prestia (who was about to enter his physical prime) and he had an immediate impact in Richmond's run to the premiership in 2017. I suppose you could argue Carlton had a similar opportunity with Dan Houston this off season, but that didn't eventuate and they secured pick 3.

Was it the right move? Richmond drafted Shai Bolton in 2016 and although he ended up becoming a great contributor for them, it didn't happen straight away. Bolton didn't play in the 2017 flag. Maybe pick 3 for Carlton will be different but I'd guess it's pretty unlikely that we're going to see that player significantly contribute in his first year or two at the Blues. I'm sure Walker will also be great when they draft him in 2026 but will it be too late by then? By that point you're looking at most of those core guys you listed being in their 30s when the 2027 season begins.

I personally think Carlton should have gone after high quality players in their prime / entering their prime instead of prioritising a high end draft pick this off season. Look at who Collingwood recruited at the end of 2022 when they went from prelim finalists to premiers - 23 year old Bobby Hill, 27 year old Dan McStay and a 29 year old Tom Mitchell. They went for it and it paid off. Just like Richmond did at the end of 2016 with players like 24 year old Prestia and 23 year old Nankervis being brought in.

Houston is not a player that will make the difference in a big game, Tom DeKoning is. We fell away when he went down, Lord will cover for Kennedy easily and if Moir comes on going with pick 3 is the right thing to do.

 

[Dazb86]

Might snap up a flag in the next couple yeard

 

[carlton_99]

I personally think Carlton should have gone after high quality players in their prime / entering their prime instead of prioritising a high end draft pick this off season. Look at who Collingwood recruited at the end of 2022 when they went from prelim finalists to premiers - 23 year old Bobby Hill, 27 year old Dan McStay and a 29 year old Tom Mitchell. They went for it and it paid off. Just like Richmond did at the end of 2016 with players like 24 year old Prestia and 23 year old Nankervis being brought in.

Carlton have been in a heavy recruitment block over the last few years bringing in a bunch of players like Cerra, Hewett, E. Hollands, Acres, Williams, Saad, McGovern etc. You need to balance recruitment out with some young talent in the draft. Nick Austin has been there since the start of 2020 and has only had one top 25 pick in the draft in that time. All about balance.

 

[Randomizor]

Short answer-- yes, with an "if."
Long answer-- no, with a "but."

 

[GC2015]

Houston is not a player that will make the difference in a big game, Tom DeKoning is. We fell away when he went down, Lord will cover for Kennedy easily and if Moir comes on going with pick 3 is the right thing to do.

Fair enough. I personally think trading in a 27 year old player who has been named in the AA team for the last two seasons would make a difference to a team currently sitting on the fringe of the top 8, but maybe that's just me. Plus, Houston has been very durable and that's appealing for a team like Carlton who have had injuries woes of late.

I get that other players can have a bigger impact than Houston, but acquiring him would surely improve the team overall in 2025. Might have been enough to clinch an elusive top 4 position and then you're talking about the double chance / genuinely having a shot at a flag with your core guys all essentially in their physical prime. I just don't see pick 3 having the same impact that a prime Houston would have in 2025-26 while all these other core guys are still in their prime.

Carlton have been in a heavy recruitment block over the last few years bringing in a bunch of players like Cerra, Hewett, E. Hollands, Acres, Williams, Saad, McGovern etc. You need to balance recruitment out with some young talent in the draft. Nick Austin has been there since the start of 2020 and has only had one top 25 pick in the draft in that time. All about balance.

You don't think drafting players like Moir, O.Hollands, Motlop etc over the last few years creates that balance? Maybe you mean drafting a high end pick, which carries no guarantee of superstardom. It just seems to me that recent premiership teams like Collingwood and Richmond got to a certain point on the ladder (typically 5-8) and decided to recruit guys in their prime to tip them over the edge in terms of winning a flag.

 

[carlton_99]

You don't think drafting players like Moir, O.Hollands, Motlop etc over the last few years creates that balance? Maybe you mean drafting a high end pick, which carries no guarantee of superstardom. It just seems to me that recent premiership teams like Collingwood and Richmond got to a certain point on the ladder (typically 5-8) and decided to recruit guys in their prime to tip them over the edge in terms of winning a flag.

Like I said only one top-25 pick in Ollie Hollands since Austin took over at the start of 2020. We need to build up our youth and getting a top pick in this draft plus hopefully Walker in 26' will help immensely. Yes top picks are no guarantee but they still give you the best chance of recruiting a 200+ game player. Also helps that the players at the top of this draft are POD mids which we currently need.

If there was a player that was going to fill a need for us in the off-season (i.e. elite small forward or outside midfielder) then I think we would have given up the picks for them. Houston wasn't that so we stuck to our strategy of hitting the draft. Next year the draft likely won't be as big a priority and we can look at the free agent market again.

I really don't think Carlton need more A-grade talent to contend for premiership. They need far more cohesion within the team, some better coaching and also a slight shift in the types of players we play in any given week. Bit more emphasis on pace and spread from the contest over the inside contested types which I think was a big reason for moving on Kennedy.

 

[40porpoise]

They need a good small forward. Which is ironic given they traded their best one out

 

[fnerd]

Can’t believe they got rid of Matt Owies.
Crazy vossy strikes again

 

[carlton_99]

Can’t believe they got rid of Matt Owies.
Crazy vossy strikes again

I understand people look straight to the goal tally but if you watch Carlton enough you will see that we were going no where with Owies as a small forward playing most weeks. Provides no defensive pressure, has no pace, doesn't crumb off the talls (i.e., no positional awareness) and gets a lot of his goals against bottom-tier sides.

He kicked 33 goals in 2024:
Vs Top 14 sides ==> 20 goals in 17 games (1.18 goals/game)
Vs Bottom 4 sides ==> 13 goals in 6 games (2.17 goals/game)

 

[BlueJet]

I understand people look straight to the goal tally but if you watch Carlton enough you will see that we were going no where with Owies as a small forward playing most weeks. Provides no defensive pressure, has no pace, doesn't crumb off the talls (i.e., no positional awareness) and gets a lot of his goals against bottom-tier sides.

He kicked 33 goals in 2024:
Vs Top 14 sides ==> 20 goals in 17 games (1.18 goals/game)
Vs Bottom 4 sides ==> 13 goals in 6 games (2.17 goals/game)

He doesn't crumb because he's more an undersized lead up option & a forward doing better against weaker sides is hardly surprising.
He's not without his flaws but he was the best of a weak group of small/medium forwards.

 

[carlton_99]

He doesn't crumb because he's more an undersized lead up option & a forward doing better against weaker sides is hardly surprising.
He's not without his flaws but he was the best of a weak group of small/medium forwards.

I agree but him playing more like he is a 195cm forward rather than a small is not a good thing imo. He is pretty much a 1 goal/game player against non-bottom 4 sides that does very little else a small should be doing. I would prefer Fogarty/Wiliiams/Motlop all in that role. They are either better currently (Williams/Fogarty) or have far more upside (Motlop). If we want a lead-up player I would just give that role to Moir who again has far more upside.

 

[fnerd]

Matt “the factor” owies, Carlton fans will rue the day they let him walk out of their club

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Carlton wont win a flag until Cripps isnt out best player, we need Walsh, Cerra and the Holland boys to take big steps forward and a functioning forward line that gets the most out of Harry & Charlie.. It could come as quickly as next year but all Carlton fans agree that unless we get our injury management & strength and conditioning right the rest is a waste of time.

 

[Heaps of fun]

Carlton wont win a flag until Cripps isnt out best player, we need Walsh, Cerra and the Holland boys to take big steps forward and a functioning forward line that gets the most out of Harry & Charlie.. It could come as quickly as next year but all Carlton fans agree that unless we get our injury management & strength and conditioning right the rest is a waste of time.

If you're waiting for Ollie Hollands to be better than Patrick Cripps you might be waiting a while.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

If you're waiting for Ollie Hollands to be better than Patrick Cripps you might be waiting a while.

Don't think he said that anywhere did he? Just that we need more options rather than being too Cripps centric.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Looking at the FIXTURE blues will be peaking (finals contender) for a while with AFL house cheerleading from the side lines.

“There’s no doubt that Carlton is smack-bang in the middle of the premiership window, so 2025 is the year they’ll want to pounce on what is an incredibly favourable fixture. They’ve drawn a good straw in the form of double-ups and will clash with North Melbourne and West Coast twice – much like Adelaide. The club’s first month of fixtures are all in prime time — on either a Thursday or Friday night — and they’ve been given not one, but two nine-day breaks (plus the bye) in their first 15 rounds. The cherry on top? No five-day breaks in the first half of their season!
A draw normally reserved for a bottom 6 team”.

 

[Fadge]

“There’s no doubt that Carlton is smack-bang in the middle of the premiership window....

Did Sam McClure write this?

Because how can a team be 'smack bang in the middle of a premiership window' if they are yet to genuinely contend for a premiership during that 'window'?

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Our list age and profile suggests we should be contending and if this list do not at least make a GF we have underachieved. We still have some holes mainly small/medium pressure forward which we just traded out our only genuine AFL standard small forward.. Hopefully Motlop steps up to fulfil his potential but have seen enough players with ‘potential’ that for what ever reason never get there to be concerned.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Did Sam McClure write this?

Because how can a team be 'smack bang in the middle of a premiership window' if they are yet to genuinely contend for a premiership during that 'window'?

It was a Murdoch minion chasing the dollar