- Dec 9, 2015
- 8,380
- 14,191
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Their current form is absolutely shocking, 2 wins from their last 9 games, no wins v top 15 sides, 0-60 wipe out, couldn't be more obvious that it's over
On SM-A225F using BigFooty.com mobile app
Opinion Has this Carlton list already peaked?
- Thread starter GC2015
- Start date
- Tagged users None
On SM-A225F using BigFooty.com mobile app
And they have an inferior list going into 2025 than they had in 2024, whilst many other teams who hope to contend for the premiership have materially improved their list.
But they have probably protected themselves from 5 consecutive years in the bottom 4 down the track by choosing to go the draft route, so there is that...
- Apr 12, 2014
- 32,242
- 57,251
- AFL Club
- Melbourne
Sorry, I'm not sure what this post is trying to say?
If we have to wait for 2025 results before we can talk about who we think will contend then we might as well shut down any discussion and go only off hindsight.
Fair enough.
The way I look at it, only one finals inexperienced side has won it under the current finals system from outside of the top 4. Bulldogs 2016 were that team. Brisbane this year were coming in on the back of a 2023 grand final and a stack of prelims.
Otherwise teams in 5th-8th have had great runs but ended up gassed (Bulldogs 2021, Giants 2019 etc), which is how I saw Carlton in that game. Credit to the Blues for at least having a competitive last quarter but it felt more like a 7 goal difference in the respective side's quality.
Top 4 and a competitive prelim is the pass mark for 2025 in having their best year under Voss and establishing themselves as a contender.
You're welcome to say who you think will contend as much as you want to.
But until a team actually contends, they can't be considered a 'genuine premiership contender' in a given year.
Case in point - you excluded Hawthorn from your list of potential premiership contenders, which would likely be in the minority when discussing 'potential premiership contenders'.
Yep, this is generally the formula to anoint a team a genuine premiership contender, though there are obviously exceptions.
Like Brisbane for obvious reasons in 2024.
Collingwood in 2007, who lost the Preliminary Final to Geelong by 5 points.
Richmond in 2018, who were the clear best team for the season, won their Qualifying Final, and had a bad night on Preliminary Final night. I still regard them as a contender.
There are two occasions this century that Collingwood have finished top 4, but I don't consider them premiership contenders in those years - 2009 and 2012.
Robertio
Spotswood Guinness Bar manager
He has no idea what he's saying either mate.
People can talk about who they think may be a contender...that is why people do ladder predictors etc.
But being a pre-season premiership fav, or being top 2 on the ladder in May doesn't actually make a team an actual contender.
You do need to actually let the season play out, and then who the premiership contenders actually are will reveal themselves...it is rare that any team that finishes outside the top 4 is ever considered a premiership contender.
Pies in 07 were never really viewed as premiership contender IMHO.
A solid team that won 13 games and had a % of 100. On a bit of a roll late as Buckley came back into the team, and we caught WC imploding to get through to the PF.
We gave Geelong a scare, but nobody really thought the Pies were a premiership contender at the start of finals.
Brisbane this year were an exception for the following reasons:
1. Huge finals pedigree leading up to the season, including a very close grand final in 2023.
2. They finished just 2 points off 3rd in the H&A, were 2 wins from top 2 and were actually favourites to finish top 2 with a few weeks to go.
So while they were still smokies, they had a lot going for them and that momentum very quickly turned into confidence they could go all the way. There also wasn't a dominant team. Sydney on top of the ladder with 17 wins and they had a serious implosion in the H&A before steadying late. Geelong lost 8 times and that was good enough for 3rd.
The only team this century to go win a premiership outside of the top 4 without the 2 factors I highlighted was the Bulldogs in 2016.
Yep, this is a really good case study.
A team that for most of the season noone thought would contend for the premiership (Collingwood), contended for the premiership.
Conversely, the reigning premiers, who were considered highly likely to contend for the premiership for most of the year, fell away late and failed to contend for the premiership.
What will be more obvious is that when we get our full side in, how damaging they can be. Happy to bet with anyone that Carlton will not finish bottom 4. The invitation is open to anyone to PM me if you have the balls
Can you ladies take your Collingwood chit chat to another thread
When Carlton have 12 wins or more next year, I will bring this post up for discussion. Until then put your crystal ball away and stop guessing about how the list has got worse
- Dec 9, 2015
- 8,380
- 14,191
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
'12 or more wins'.
So you're predicting they will 'contend for finals'?
That's very brave of you.
The problem is, Carlton have played their best footy over the last two years when all of Kennedy, Owies, Marchbank, Martin and Cuningham have been in the team and contributing.
Last 2 seasons, Cuningham played 17 games, Martin 16, Marchbank 11
As brave as predicting Carlton to finish between 7th and as low as 17th , covering 11 positions out of a possible 18. Brave indeed
Feel free to PM me.
And, going back to my post, when were those games played?
Let me answer that...
2023 Elimination Final - Cuningham, Marchbank, Martin and Owies played.
2023 Semi Final - Cuningham, Kennedy, Marchbank and Owies played.
2023 Preliminary Final - Kennedy, Marchbank and Martin played.
I think we have discovered 'The Cavalry'.
Last edited:
- Dec 9, 2015
- 8,380
- 14,191
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
So analysis after the fact, yet you stated we wouldn't finish any higher than 13th in 2023, due to only adding Acres
Same leading into 2024 13th because we only added Elijah Hollands
Now 2025, Carlton to finish 13-17th
This is what you call analysis as to how sides will fair, purely based on ins and outs?
Your team has had 12 wins, 13 wins and 13 wins over the past 3 years.
In years where a lot of people have predicted them for top 4 and/or premiership contention.
They haven't taken the leap to finish top 4 and/or contend for the premiership because they haven't materially improved their list in the off season, and have taken the same approach this off season.
'Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results'.
You picked us for 13th or lower the last 2 years and 13-17th this year. You predicted Saints and or Essendon to finish top 4 in 2024
Your "analysis" is based cognitive bias, together with
What you are actually saying is that our players will get worse with form.
Understand Cripps wont have his his 12 best on ground performance year, might only have 10. Who else is getting worse, and also assuming that you think no players will become better either.
