Hawks 3rd flag in a row the easiest yet

[Mitchell Madness]

the regular season is about qualifying high as you can and hopefully home finals. 95% of the time, maybe higher, the home team wins. If hawthorn finish 3rd or 4th behind interstate teams and lose week one , good luck! if Hawthorn finish top 2 then i slightly agree with the OP but as we have seen, a week is a long time in football

Brisbane in 2002/2003 lost qualifying finals, as did west coast and Sydney in 05/06

 

[Kavliaris69]

Prior to the game on Sunday against Fremantle, I was pretty much sold on Hawthorn winning the Grand Final this year, after they dismembered Fremantle, I am nothing but convinced entirely. This side is as good as the Brisbane Lions of 2003. I just do not see how anyone will get near them when it matters in the finals. Here is why they will win it;


6 - Someone needs to run through and seriously hurt a key Hawks player. Hodge, Mitchell, or Lewis. First centre clearance, a swans player needs to make a statement, cop weeks, and hurt someone.

I don't think that targeting these 3 guys will be a key to winning. We have seen this sort of thing tried before and these 3 guys are seasoned campaigners and pretty tough units that can brush it off pretty quickly. Younger outside players would be a better target to stop the run if you want to go the biffo route. You can see the effect of Roughie laying a massive body blow/tackle to a young Hanneberry last GF. Had no impact after this.

I don't think that coaches these days look for that edge as a strategy in a game anyway.

 

[Docker Alyssa]

this is like all the freo threads after around round 6.

And yet here we are. Round 16, ten rounds later and Dockers still a game clear. Sooooo... top 2 still really on the cards with our draw

Eagles, not so much.

==========

I'd say we are in for this..

ladder
Freo 1st
Sydney 2nd
Hawks 3rd
Eagles 4th

qualifying
Freo (win) vs Eagles
Syd (win) vs Hawthorn

prelim
freo (win) vs hawks
sydney (win) vs eagles

GF
complete toss up... who knows.

 

[Perthite]

Well this thread is the kiss of death. Thanks whoever opened it.

 

[Pessimistic]

And yet here we are. Round 16, ten rounds later and Dockers still a game clear. Sooooo... top 2 still really on the cards with our draw

Eagles, not so much.

==========

I'd say we are in for this..

ladder
Freo 1st
Sydney 2nd
Hawks 3rd
Eagles 4th

qualifying
Freo (win) vs Eagles
Syd (win) vs Hawthorn

prelim
freo (win) vs hawks
sydney (win) vs eagles

GF
complete toss up... who knows.

Closest qualifying finals for years. Outcome by no means certain

 

[hk89]

I'd say we are in for this..

ladder
Freo 1st
Sydney 2nd
Hawks 3rd
Eagles 4th

qualifying
Freo (win) vs Eagles
Syd (win) vs Hawthorn

prelim
freo (win) vs hawks
sydney (win) vs eagles

GF
complete toss up... who knows.

That is certainly possibly, but hard to say it is likely if Freo's present form continues. It is possible (although still unlikely, but not unthinkably so) that Freo could go out in straight sets if the ladder is as you predict. In terms of making the GF, I think Freo would prefer Hawthorn to manage to get to second place , bumping Sydney down to fourth and WC finishing 3rd. That way getting a proper home advantage in the first week of finals, instead of a derby. On present form WC would likely go in betting favourites in a derby qualifying final, so I'd think they would want to avoid that. Ideal first week matchup would probably be Sydney in the west. Doubt they'd want to play a team that had thumped them by 12 goals on the previous encounter (and yes I know you've done badly in Tassie before, and bounced back well, but the 2010 loss down there was with a very weak team compared to the one you sent this year - relative to your best available side on the day).

It really sucks that Freo, WC, Sydney only get two games at most at the MCG over the H&A (only 1 for WC). Huge advantage come finals for the teams that share the MCG as a home ground. Of course lots of Melbourne based teams would love to have the home ground advantage Freo and WC have (without the travel of course ). Would be very pleased to see Freo win if Hawthorn can't make the GF. Their fans were a great bunch in 2013, really adding atmosphere to the game, and were very gracious losers. Probably my memory is coloured by the result, but found the atmosphere poor at the ground in 2012 in comparison, with the Sydney crowd presence much less noticeable than the Freo fans the following year.

 

[El Topo]

Hawks won't be beaten in a granny, they're vulnerable in prelims though as they generally win those by the skin of their teeth.

 

[JHF1870]

Hawks won't be beaten in a granny, they're vulnerable in prelims though as they generally win those by the skin of their teeth.

So what if hawks Kick 8: 20 vs 11:4

 

[El Topo]

So what if hawks Kick 8: 20 vs 11:4

Then I'll be pretty stoked at someone else winning, final score is the only stat that really matters!

 

[WWSD]

Hawks won't be beaten in a granny, they're vulnerable in prelims though as they generally win those by the skin of their teeth.

I don't know what the hell is going on with our Preliminary finals under Clarkson. Our three wins have been by under a goal and we also lost to Collingwood in 2011 by 3 points. Our only 'convincing' win in a Preliminary Final was to the Saints way back in 2008 which was by 54 points. In contrast our qualifying finals have been sensational dominating our opponents. Current record in qualifying finals under Clarkson is (4-1). I would be confident of winning in the first week of the finals this year. Regardless of who it's against. Not so much for those Prelims though.

Qualifying finals
2008: Hawthorn 19.11.127 defeated Western Bulldogs 11.10.76 W
2011: Geelong 14.14.98 defeated Hawthorn 9.13.67 L
2012: Hawthorn 20.15.135 defeated Collingwood 15.7.97 W
2013: Hawthorn 15.15.105 defeated Sydney 7.9.51 W
2014: Hawthorn 15.14.104 defeated Geelong 10.8.68 W

 

[cryptor]

Groundhog day this thread. Ones just like it open this time of year every year. Just a massive troll bait thread.

Currently serves to make supporters of every other finals bound side froth at the mouth in indignation with the secondary fire 8-10 weeks from now when this is bumped if the Hawks don't go all the way.

No good comes from a thread like this. Not now, not later.

 

[samFFC]

No, I am convinced. I think Hawthorn will win it. The only way they could get beaten is if Sydney does that. But I am simply highlighting how I think they can get beaten, but I don't believe they will.

Well then odds of over $2.00 for the premiership look a bargain then!

 

[Freo]

Well then odds of over $2.00 for the premiership look a bargain then!

Super team Hawks, absolute certainty to go 3 straight... Pricks

 

[loki04]

I think it will depend very much on who they meet not just in the GF but the road to it in finals.

 

[loki04]

Super team Hawks, absolute certainty to go 3 straight... Pricks

Very good team.

No certainties though.

 

[loki04]

Do you think the introduction of the expansion teams has benefited the top teams more than anyone - in the short term?

They had established lists and have used free agency and trades to top up areas of weakness, not relying on the draft.
The challenging teams have all been plucking talent from compromised drafts so are obviously weaker for it, meaning that it's going to take an extra year or 2 for the other teams to catch up.

This does NOT mean I'm saying Hawks, Syd, Freo don't deserve to be where they are, and the premierships they have won are well deserved. But I've always wondered who the biggest beneficiaries of the established teams would be from the draft, and I think there is some evidence to suggest the those 3 teams were in the right place at the right time.

As for this exact topic, the season is a long way from being over. Write off Fremantle at your own peril, the form they displayed at the start of the season didn't just disappear. They have 10 weeks to get back to their best, which is as good as the Hawks.

100% yes.

 

[Freo]

Very good team.

No certainties though.

Who's going to beat them at the G?

 

[Procrastinator35]

Groundhog day this thread. Ones just like it open this time of year every year. Just a massive troll bait thread.

Currently serves to make supporters of every other finals bound side froth at the mouth in indignation with the secondary fire 8-10 weeks from now when this is bumped if the Hawks don't go all the way.

No good comes from a thread like this. Not now, not later.

Unless, of course....The result goes our way.

 

[cryptor]

Unless, of course....The result goes our way.

Best case for us. Though regardless the result this thread will get a bump sometime mid-late September or early October with the sole intention of pissing another group off.

 

[loki04]

Who's going to beat them at the G?

Pies, Rich, Freo, Geel and Swans all capable of beating them. Despite your last game. Other teams have already done it.

They are not THAT great of a side that it is a certainty in fact I don't hold them in the same esteem as the lions 01-04 team despite the sudden rush of comparisons due to them possibly going the tripple.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Best case for us. Though regardless the result this thread will get a bump sometime mid-late September or early October with the sole intention of pissing another group off.

I must be suffering under the misapprehension that 'pissing other posters off' informs a large component of Big Footy.

 

[Freo]

Pies, Rich, Freo, Geel and Swans all capable of beating them. Despite your last game. Other teams have already done it.

They are not THAT great of a side that it is a certainty in fact I don't hold them in the same esteem as the lions 01-04 team despite the sudden rush of comparisons due to them possibly going the tripple.

All those teams have a small chance of beating them at best. They have too much talent, experience and are very well coached with the best club culture.

 

[Hawkk]

Pies, Rich, Freo, Geel and Swans all capable of beating them. Despite your last game. Other teams have already done it.

They are not THAT great of a side that it is a certainty in fact I don't hold them in the same esteem as the lions 01-04 team despite the sudden rush of comparisons due to them possibly going the tripple.

Well they've won 3 flags, lost a GF by a kick and another PF by a kick in the space of 7 years...which probably explains the comparison

Or I could be wrong

 

[loki04]

Well they've won 3 flags, lost a GF by a kick and another PF by a kick in the space of 7 years...which probably explains the comparison

Or I could be wrong

Very different grp won the 08 GF.

This current group has won 2 and lost 1 and possibly going a 3rd.

They (for me anyway) don't hold the same aura as the lions team and don't have the same talent across all lines of the field.
Think the Hawks have been fortunate that a great team was dropping off at the same time 2 x-pack clubs destroyed almost 3 drafts preventing natural evolution of some teams and weakening the finals pool. Still a great team and effort but the comparisons are getting tiresome.

 

[Hawkk]

Very different grp won the 08 GF.

This current group has won 2 and lost 1 and possibly going a 3rd.

They (for me anyway) don't hold the same aura as the lions team and don't have the same talent across all lines of the field.
Think the Hawks have been fortunate that a great team was dropping off at the same time 2 x-pack clubs destroyed almost 3 drafts preventing natural evolution of some teams and weakening the finals pool. Still a great team and effort but the comparisons are getting tiresome.

Perhaps that said their record (2012-2015) statistically is far superior to the Brisbane Lions 2001-2004...aura or not (I wonder of they had the aura when they went 6-8 through the middle of the 2003 season? Probably not but history is relative)

Of course it'll all count for nought if they don't get the flag this year