Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[mustang]

I’d really like to see if we do play finals is McCabe to play like the last 3 or 4 games at CHB, and then finals to help his development over the summer along with the rest of the kids.

 

[Mercy Seat]

I’d really like to see if we do play finals is McCabe to play like the last 3 or 4 games at CHB, and then finals to help his development over the summer along with the rest of the kids.

There’s no one in the team he’s currently dislodging.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Just a reminder

View attachment 2014629

Forget about the fact he was wrong about hawthorn.... what sort of a stupid comment is it to say a club is embarking on a TEN YEAR rebound.

Ten years!!

Moron

 

[Mercy Seat]

Forget about the fact he was wrong about hawthorn.... what sort of a stupid comment is it to say a club is embarking on a TEN YEAR rebound.

Ten years!!

Moron

I guess when you’re a Saint, that timeframe seems not unreasonable.

 

[mustang]

There’s no one in the team he’s currently dislodging.

Yeah agree same with Lewis and Wingard when fit.

 

[hk89]

The thing that makes me pessimistic is that I feel our draw was really tough at the start of the year, and that is partly why we started 0-5. However I also think our resurgence, while partly form driven has also coincided with an easier section in our draw (perhaps not as people predicted the ladder would look like at the start of the year, but based on the form of the teams we've come across).

IMO, we are now heading into a section of the draw that is a bit tougher than what we've faced over the last few weeks. We are also playing away more often, Eagles away, Cats in Geelong, Adelaide in Adelaide, Giants away. Carlton is also a team with more runs on the board than any team we've beaten so far. I see a few 50/50 or worse games there, so to only drop 2 games out of 9 would be an amazing run. Certainly think it is possible, just unlikely, especially with a lot of young players with only a few pre-seasons under their belt who may struggle to play out the season strongly. Hope I'm wrong!

 

[Simon Crawshay]

The thing that makes me pessimistic is that I feel our draw was really tough at the start of the year, and that is partly why we started 0-5. However I also think our resurgence, while partly form driven has also coincided with an easier section in our draw (perhaps not as people predicted the ladder would look like at the start of the year, but based on the form of the teams we've come across).

IMO, we are now heading into a section of the draw that is a bit tougher than what we've faced over the last few weeks. We are also playing away more often, Eagles away, Cats in Geelong, Adelaide in Adelaide, Giants away. Carlton is also a team with more runs on the board than any team we've beaten so far. I see a few 50/50 or worse games there, so to only drop 2 games out of 9 would be an amazing run. Certainly think it is possible, just unlikely, especially with a lot of young players with only a few pre-seasons under their belt who may struggle to play out the season strongly. Hope I'm wrong!

I think thirteen wins will get us in (it usually does) so I reckon we can lose 3 out of the last 9.

So we need to win 6 more games and if we bank the three wins against West Coast, North and Richmond then it comes down to winning 3 out of Carlton, Collingwood, Freo (at Tassie), Adelaide (in Adelaide), GWS (in Canberra) and Geelong (Kardinia).

On current form I see us winning three out of that bunch. That's only a 50% winning ratio.

The real trick will be to ensure we don't slip up against West Coast, North and Richmond. We lose any of those games and we will be right up against it.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Yeah agree same with Lewis and Wingard when fit.

If you think Lewis is not coming into the side when fit I’m not sure anyone can help you.

 

[parsons nose]

I think thirteen wins will get us in (it usually does) so I reckon we can lose 3 out of the last 9.

So we need to win 6 more games and if we bank the three wins against West Coast, North and Richmond then it comes down to winning 3 out of Carlton, Collingwood, Freo (at Tassie), Adelaide (in Adelaide), GWS (in Canberra) and Geelong (Kardinia).

On current form I see us winning three out of that bunch. That's only a 50% winning ratio.

The real trick will be to ensure we don't slip up against West Coast, North and Richmond. We lose any of those games and we will be right up against it.

I agree. It’s easy to be seduced into thinking it’s a bridge too far, winning 3 of those six. However, we have crafted a game plan that is difficult to combat and have a healthy list to chose from. We are an entirely different proposition to the team that dropped so many early games. And as there is a lag between the perceptions of where we are at and the reality of where we are at, that will take another few weeks to bridge. I’d have us going into the games against Geelong and Collingwood as favourites but the experts haven’t yet caught on.

 

[parsons nose]

The most fascinating call will be the Lewis/ Gunston, Dear decision. Will they go with youth or experience? Many would have expected Dear to drop off a bit, but that hasn’t happened. If anything his increased his output.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

 

[hk89]

I think thirteen wins will get us in (it usually does) so I reckon we can lose 3 out of the last 9.

You're right that 13 is almost always enough, but this season has been a bit odd with only 1 win and percentage separating 12th from 4th (as the ladder stands this morning, and not accounting for byes). The ladder predictor I did a few weeks ago had multiple teams missing out on finals with 13 wins based on percentage, and our percentage sucks, so we are likely to be one of the teams that misses out on 13 if spots for the 8 come down to percentage and more than 12 wins is required. I'd be much more confident if we could indeed get in with 3 losses, but I'm not sure that will be possible with the unusual log jam forming this year.

So we need to win 6 more games and if we bank the three wins against West Coast, North and Richmond then it comes down to winning 3 out of Carlton, Collingwood, Freo (at Tassie), Adelaide (in Adelaide), GWS (in Canberra) and Geelong (Kardinia).

On current form I see us winning three out of that bunch. That's only a 50% winning ratio.

The real trick will be to ensure we don't slip up against West Coast, North and Richmond. We lose any of those games and we will be right up against it.

I agree 6 more wins is very possible, I'm just not sure it will be enough.

 

[Blahsta]

You're right that 13 is almost always enough, but this season has been a bit odd with only 1 win and percentage separating 12th from 4th (as the ladder stands this morning, and not accounting for byes). The ladder predictor I did a few weeks ago had multiple teams missing out on finals with 13 wins based on percentage, and our percentage sucks, so we are likely to be one of the teams that misses out on 13 if spots for the 8 come down to percentage and more than 12 wins is required. I'd be much more confident if we could indeed get in with 3 losses, but I'm not sure that will be possible with the unusual log jam forming this year.



I agree 6 more wins is very possible, I'm just not sure it will be enough.

Yeah, I've done a few ladder predictors and I don't think 13 wins gets us in due to percentage. Probably need 14.

 

[Turtles all the way down]

Yeah, I've done a few ladder predictors and I don't think 13 wins gets us in due to percentage. Probably need 14.

Squiggle season predictor agrees:

https://live.squiggle.com.au/#



14 wins is probably 3rd to 5th.
13 wins is probably 6th to 10th.
12 wins is probably 11th to 13th.

With 13 wins we would need a good percentage (or crazy good luck in having half a dozen mid-table teams lose several games they shouldn't).

But we have the worst percentage of the top 13 teams by a country mile. The only team we stand a remote chance of beating by percentage is Essendon and even then we would need several thumping wins in the 2nd half of the season.

It's a fairly safe assumption, therefore, that we will need to finish with 14 wins, or at least 13 wins and a draw, to make the finals.

 

[unitedhawk]

If we can take care of the Cats comfortably down there in R17, I'll really start to believe that we can get in.

How about the prospect of beating Essendon in an elimination final? Wouldn't that be sweet?!

 

[Turtles all the way down]

Assuming we beat WC (away), Richmond and North (Tassie).

We would also need to win 4/6 against Geelong (away), Freo (Tassie), Collingwood, Adelaide (away), GWS (away) and Carlton.

 

[arupist]

Assuming we beat WC (away), Richmond and North (Tassie).

We would also need to win 4/6 against Geelong (away), Freo (Tassie), Collingwood, Adelaide (away), GWS (away) and Carlton.

And the problem with that is ....?

 

[peetoo]

6 and a draw from 9 minimum…. Or 6 wins by 8-10 goals

 

[peetoo]

So which games are the ‘gimmes’ again?

 

[Simon Crawshay]

You're right that 13 is almost always enough, but this season has been a bit odd with only 1 win and percentage separating 12th from 4th (as the ladder stands this morning, and not accounting for byes). The ladder predictor I did a few weeks ago had multiple teams missing out on finals with 13 wins based on percentage, and our percentage sucks, so we are likely to be one of the teams that misses out on 13 if spots for the 8 come down to percentage and more than 12 wins is required. I'd be much more confident if we could indeed get in with 3 losses, but I'm not sure that will be possible with the unusual log jam forming this year.



I agree 6 more wins is very possible, I'm just not sure it will be enough.

Gee we would be unlucky to miss with thirteen wins considering teams have made it with 12 wins in the past.

Just shows you how terrible those bottom three teams (North, WCE and Tiges) are going this year that they have skewed the ladder in that way.

 

[HedgeFund]

So which games are the ‘gimmes’ again?

The way North are going today….

 

[kirbatron]

slight sniff

 

[KermitJagger]

The way North are going today….

North are playing okay, Collingwood have been very bad.

 

[Billyc]

Squiggle only thins we pick up 4-5 wins from here

We are going much better than 50 50

We should at least beat the 4 bottom sides. If you want to play finals they need to be wins and some big wins. Beyond that we will be playing a bunch of other sides vying for those last spots in the 8 which may be a series of mini finals the way the ladder is shaping up

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Echoing my autopsy thread comment - if the Scum and Carltank beat Geelong and we beat West Coast then we’d have a chance to jump them on the ladder at Kardinia in round 17.