Toast Hawks made finals in 2024! - Hawks finals discussion

[threesixpio]

Not sure if I’m being too optimistic but I’ve got us finishing 6th on the ladder predictor

I’ve done the “we win every game” and the rest were ladder leaders beating their opposition - got us to fifth I think.

 

[threesixpio]

I’ve done the “we win every game” and the rest were ladder leaders beating their opposition - got us to fifth I think.

On the 50th attempt …

 

[threesixpio]

I've done the ladder predictor a fair few times

How many …?

 

[HawthornHawk]

How many …?

 

[The Gulden Child]

Melbourne, gone. Port vulnerable. Ditto Collingwood. Essendon will collapse despite playing WCE next. GWS, Geelong, Port and Freo all a chance to lose their next game. A big win after the bye and things could look good for Hawks.

 

[threesixpio]

Melbourne, gone. Port vulnerable. Ditto Collingwood. Essendon will collapse despite playing WCE next. GWS, Geelong, Port and Freo all a chance to lose their next game. A big win after the bye and things could look good for Hawks.

 

[threesixpio]

The Gulden Child - joke. Swans are a bit good.

 

[Nugett]

I have really tried to be measured. The question I’m now asking is can we win the Granny?

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

I have really tried to be measured. The question I’m now asking is can we win the Granny?

At the moment? We could probably beat anybody on any given day

 

[hk89]

Another way of looking at the situation is that given the current ladder and our horrid percentage we need at least two more wins than one of the teams in the GWS, Geelong , Port and Fremantle group for a spot to open up in the 8 for us. To actually take that free spot in preference to the other teams vying for it outside the eight we THEN need to have at least one more win than all the other teams just outside the 8 i.e Dogs, Suns and Melbourne, AND at least as many wins as the teams below us to stop them jumping into the spare spot in the 8.

I think this looks more hopeful than just thinking we need 7/9, because Melbourne and GC are both sliding, and Dogs have been very hot and cold, so I can see us winning more games than all 3 of those, meaning we only need one of GWS, Cats, Port and Freo to shit themselves in the back half of the season and we could make it. I think the most likely failure point will be dogs take the spot we need, with Lions also a chance to jump over us into 8th (although they have 5 top 8 teams in their run home).

It is possible TWO of the bottom half of the current top 8 shit the bed, in which case we could be one of two teams that jumps up into the spots vacated by those two teams. We play 3 of those vulnerable top 8 teams in the run home, so can help provide those teams with some of the losses we need them to have.

Will be an interesting run home, with North hitting some form and Eagles at their home with Harley Reid back I don't really see any easy games coming up. Excited to see how it plays out.

 

[Sixpence]

I have really tried to be measured. The question I’m now asking is can we win the Granny?

Lids are for pussies!

 

[mustang]

Not sure if I’m being too optimistic but I’ve got us finishing 6th on the ladder predictor

I’ve got us finishing 5th

 

[TylerDurden]

I’ve got us finishing 5th

So not losing a game from here?

 

[KermitJagger]

So not losing a game from here?

We're in an interesting spot where if you look at current form, Carlton is really the only game I'm going into thinking "You know we'll probably lose this". Maybe GWS with some of their mids back.

Collingwood, Freo and Geelong are all very gettable.

 

[Sixpence]

We're in an interesting spot where if you look at current form, Carlton is really the only game I'm going into thinking "You know we'll probably lose this". Maybe GWS with some of their mids back.

Collingwood, Freo and Geelong are all very gettable.

Same. Feel every game, besides the Carlton one, is winnable.

 

[scrim reaper]

I think we will get more help from other teams than we realise.

Games that people think are easy can become trap games (eagles away, adelaide away, ironically two games we have to play)

All of a sudden North can go up 56 points on Collingwood, it is entirely feasible they could beat the dogs at marvel or Geelong in tassie.

Richmond although we smashed them are practically full strength again and have beaten Sydney this year.

I reckon the bottom 5 teams can somewhat consistently steal points away from the middle of the table.

We're only 2 Geelong losses (Blues and Dons both at the G) and 1 win from us against the Eagles to have the chance to jump them on the ladder in a couple weeks...

 

[earthworms]

Likely wins: Freo (win rate at utas is 74%), north, richmond, west coast, crows
Tough games: Geelong at gmhba, collingwood and carlton at mcg, gws at manuka.

Based on last year where sydney finished 8th with 50 points, we will need 52 points because of poor %. This means we need 6 wins out of our next 9 games. If we win all the likely games, we will need one of geelong, gws, collingwood, carlton. Based on the difficulty of the rest of our fixture, finals is very feasible. Fremantle, or gws would be crucial wins because they’re hovering around 8th.

 

[philohk]

The next 9 games are going to be a ride. Can't wait! We've won 7 of 9 and need to do it again.

Not sure if anyone follows Tony Corke's Matter of Stats blog. I always have a look after the weekend is done. According to its model our chances of making finals are going up pretty significantly every week. Currently sitting at 25%. Other tidbits post-round 14:

• His predictor has us on 11.7 wins, almost the same as Squiggle
• Based on 10,000 simulations, 12% of teams finishing eighth had 12 wins, 51% had 13 wins and 16% had 12.5 wins
• Even for us with our poor percentage, 13 wins is a better than 50% chance of finals
• We're a 1.2% chance of winning the flag (soyouresayingtheresachance.jpg)

 

[cryptor]

The next ten games are going to be a ride. Can't wait! We've won 7 of 9 and need to do it again.

Not sure if anyone follows Tony Corke's Matter of Stats blog. I always have a look after the weekend is done. According to its model our chances of making finals are going up pretty significantly every week. Currently sitting at 25%. Other tidbits post-round 14:

• His predictor has us on 11.7 wins, almost the same as Squiggle
• Based on 10,000 simulations, 12% of teams finishing eighth had 12 wins, 51% had 13 wins and 16% had 12.5 wins
• Even for us with our poor percentage, 13 wins is a better than 50% chance of finals
• We're a 1.2% chance of winning the flag (soyouresayingtheresachance.jpg)

What I like is that our team form has been very consistent but our “best on” lists vary from week to week. Even the fan voted MVP has yet to see a repeat from when we started our winning form in round 8.

We made it to the bye after the equal longest run of games and finished our last game strongly. We’ll then have the chance to launch into the back half of the year with effectively a full and healthy list. And another bye before finals should we make it.

I’ve been watching a lot more neutral games this season and I genuinely agree with Kane Cornes that we are the second best team in it on current form. Not having to play the Swans again in H&A is ideal even if it would be a good test.

If Mitch Lewis can come back in and stay fit and in form then we will go up another level. And when Watson gets his goal radar sorted… watch out. Even Ginnivan has scope for improvement on top of what has been a really good first half of the season.

Unless the team gets ahead of themselves over the bye or otherwise drop the collective form for whatever reason then I’m very confident we make finals. And I reckon we can win do some damage when we get there.

 

[KermitJagger]

Even before our rich run of form, things weren't anywhere near as bad as indicated. Up until round 7 our losing margins, especially against Sydney, were blown out immensely by inaccuracy on our part and on extraordinary accuracy from the teams we were playing. At some stage I remember reading that we had more goals kicked against us from outside 50 than every other team combined.

We should have a decent amount of confidence going into our remaining games now that we have key players back and are more reliable in general.

RoundNumber	Opposition	Result	Exp Result	Margin	Expected Score Diff	Exp Margin
1​	Ess	L	W	-24​	-37.8​	10.8​
2​	Melb	L	L	-55​	-24.6​	-30.4​
3​	Geel	L	L	-36​	-33.2​	-4.8​
4​	Coll	L	L	-5​	-1.8​	-2.2​
5​	GC	L	L	-53​	-19.7​	-28.3​
6​	NM	W	W	45​	10.5​	35.5​
7​	Syd	L	L	-76​	-49.6​	-25.4​

 

[mustang]

So not losing a game from here?

No losing 2 games

 

[CD Xbow]

Same. Feel every game, besides the Carlton one, is winnable.

I'm disappointed in your lack of faith.
That's Carlton you are talking about. Bags of cash carrying under achievers.
It may be tough, but there is no reason we can't beat them.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Good thing for us is that we won’t play Swans on the run home, while they’re play pretty much every side we are competing with for a spot in the bottom half of the 8.

It’s all up to us to just keep the wins coming in.

 

[TassieGrown]

It would be good if some teams above us can play in some drawn games, it should then counter act our poor %

 

[Ka Norkers]

current "power" rankings have the Hawks 7th.
we are scheduled to play 3 teams above us and 6 below in the final games. On paper, at least, that is do-able, but we need to remember this is a very young side, and they have already won 6 of the last 7.