Hawthorn’s 2019 Trade/FA - Targets/Incoming players discussion only

[Bugs1977]

Don’t forget folks we HAVE to use a first rounder IN THE DRAFT, by the 2020 Draft.

That could easily be achieved by trading out Smith for a 2nd rounder. Trade that 2nd rounder + future 2nd rounder for another teams 2020 1st rounder. El presto!

 

[Hawker55]

Just so I'm on top of everything, at the end of trade period I can expect

INS: B. Hill, L. Whitfield, S.Coniglio, J. Patton
OUTS: I. Omith,

 

[Bugs1977]

Just so I'm on top of everything, at the end of trade period I can expect

INS: B. Hill, L. Whitfield, S.Coniglio, J. Patton
OUTS: I. Omith,

More reasonable thinking would be either:

S.Coniglio, J. Patton, L. Whitfield

OR

S.Coniglio, J. Patton, B. Hill

I don't think it would be feasible to land both Whitfield and Hill due to salary cap concerns. That is unless you trade out someone else on matching $$$.

 

[tige19]

Coniglio isn't a great user of the footy, and I'd say there aren't too many contested beasts who are.

You'll find that DE% drops substantially the more you decide to dispose of the ball by foot, and the mentioned contested blokes are handballers primarily. Kick first midfielders like Dusty always tend to rate pretty highly in clangers and turnovers.

I was having an argument with a mate today about Jackson Macrae, I was saying that he is not far off Cripps and he was losing it.. But looking at them statistically and theres a very strong argument that he is not far off, his DE is elite and he kicks the footy almost as much as he handballs. What you say makes sense though, would be great to see Jags and Cogs closer to 70% DE, either way you look at it both are poor poor especially Jags who would surely be at the bottom of the barrel league wise?

 

[tige19]

I agree that there's room for improvement there, but looking at last year, with Tom as our main inside bull Jaegar had a DE of 71% (Tom still went at 72% himself). In Tom's absence, I think Jaegar has acquitted himself well, but that in and under role is not his natural game. I'd fully expect his DE to improve with Tom back. Cogs would help greatly, but Whitfield would provide better disposal.

I'm not fussed either way, I'd be happy with either one and completely ecstatic if we got both!

Probably solidifies the argument that Jags is never going to be an alpha male mid as we all hoped for, maybe the reality is with his injuries he needs to slot in as number 3 or 4 mid. Not a bad weapon to have as a number 3 or 4 hey?

 

[Lewis4Prez]

How Carlton is this? Sorry for sharing but its too funny.

 

[kirbatron]

I wouldnt worry about JOM DE with our current setup. He is belting it on the boot to just get it forward.

Mitch back in he will resume getting the coal face stuff. JOM is next the chain & id expect his disposal to tighten up

 

[Iceman!]

I wouldnt worry about JOM DE with our current setup. He is belting it on the boot to just get it forward.

Mitch back in he will resume getting the coal face stuff. JOM is next the chain & id expect his disposal to tighten up

It seems to be a team plan

Worpel, Shiels and Jaeger all do it. A few weeks back I was losing it at Shiels for seemingly not even looking for an option, just gathers it and bombs it long. It has to be a team strategy and hopefully once we can become consistently competitive and hopefully dominant in the midfield we will see that less.

 

[Sixpence]

Probably solidifies the argument that Jags is never going to be an alpha male mid as we all hoped for, maybe the reality is with his injuries he needs to slot in as number 3 or 4 mid. Not a bad weapon to have as a number 3 or 4 hey?

Yeh, I think you can make a reasonable argument that Jaeger won't be the super elite mid that he seemed destined to be when he joined GC. His injuries have probably lowered his ceiling a little. One thing to consider though, is that those injuries mean he's at least 3 years behind in development. I think there's still room for him to step it up a notch, especially with Tom and Cogs taking some of that load off him. He could still be to Tom what Hodge was to Sammy, rather than a standalone Cripps or Fyfe! At worst, as you say, still a bloody good number 3.

 

[Sixpence]

It seems to be a team plan

Worpel, Shiels and Jaeger all do it. A few weeks back I was losing it at Shiels for seemingly not even looking for an option, just gathers it and bombs it long. It has to be a team strategy and hopefully once we can become consistently competitive and hopefully dominant in the midfield we will see that less.

I don't think it's a directive as such, rather something we seem to fall back on when feeling the pressure. Against Geelong, our forward entries were sublime. Hitting up a leading Lewis or putting it to the advantage of O'Brien and Hanrahan. Against Brisbane, they put us under more pressure and we added to it with bad kicking. Leading us to bomb it more. I'm actually impressed we still got as many shots on goal as we did. Credit to our forward for that much at least.

 

[Gralin]

Anyone considering who should be target number 1 between Cogs and Whitfield need look no further than our current best inside mid in Jags. Jom has a DE% of 61%, it’s damn horrendous, Cogs is much better in tight and by foot he is levels above Jags. I know people will say that Jags has been shouldering the load, but guys like Cripps/Macrae/Neale/Fyfe/Dunkley etc all get more contested footy and dispose of it at 70-75%. Bringing Cogs in to partner with Titch will ensure much cleaner footy for our runners, that is key in today’s footy.

Cogs all the way, Lachie can wait if it’s not this year.

It's Interesting if you compare Cogs, JOM, Worps, Cripps and Fyfe.
Cripps has by far the highest DE but he also has the most handballs and the highest percentage of handballs out of disposals of the group.
Kicking efficiency for everyone bar Jags is within 4% of each other, he is on paper a worse kick than the rest of the group this year, but his career average is on par with the rest of the group.

Last year he had a career best year for kicking efficiency and he's had some very good games this year even though he's down overall

 

[KermitJagger]

I was having an argument with a mate today about Jackson Macrae, I was saying that he is not far off Cripps and he was losing it.. But looking at them statistically and theres a very strong argument that he is not far off, his DE is elite and he kicks the footy almost as much as he handballs. What you say makes sense though, would be great to see Jags and Cogs closer to 70% DE, either way you look at it both are poor poor especially Jags who would surely be at the bottom of the barrel league wise?

Different roles really, a more fair comparison for Jackson Macrae would be Matt Crouch. Macrae is predominantly a distributor, Cripps gets far more in terms of clearances and centre clearances. There are multiple ways that you can break down midfielders, but this is how I tend to break it down and it seems fair:

Inside: Cunnington, Cripps, Oliver, Kennedy (Swans)
Inside/Outside (accumulation): Brad Crouch, Mitchell, Neale
Inside/Outside (impact): Dusty, Fyfe, Dangerfield, O'Meara, Bontempelli, Shiel
Outside/Inside (accumulation): Matt Crouch, Macrae, Gaff
Outside/Inside (impact): T Kelly, Shuey, Jack Steven, Whitfield
Outside: Smith, Hill, Polec

Jaeger isn't necessarily at the bottom of the barrel league wise either. When you look at similar players who are being asked to play similar roles. He's up there - but he's up there with names that you wouldn't really hate being up there with. In terms of turnovers, the top 10 is made of:

Boak
Brad Crouch
Gaff
Taranto
O'Meara
Bontempelli
Shuey
David Swallow
Dylan Shiel
Elliot Yeo

Jaeger could definitely still be the player that we need him to be, or that he could conceivably be, but it depends on having others in the team that allow him to play that role.

 

[BigLittleHawk]

Just sayin...

If Cognilio does end up at the Hawks, and part of the reason is because of Jaeger......all those c***s that said we overpaid for Jaeger, can GAGF.
Seriously.
Helping get Cogniglio to the Hawks automatically becomes part of what we get/got from trading for Jaeger.

So we not only got Jaeger when we traded away 'so much'....but we also got a secret advantage in getting Coniglio to the club also.

What a F***ING trade win that would be!

 

[Yardie]

if the Carlton offer for cogs turned out to be successful as described above it would ruin that club for close to another decade. win/win either way.

they would struggle to retain their current list together. wasn't their murmurings of Sydney compiling another mega-offer to lure Cripps up there as well?

Is Sam Walsh their 4th best midfielder?

 

[Flukey!]

I'm in the Whitfield 2020 camp...trade then if necessary.

Cogs and Patton will do me for this period. Bennell on basic wage as a DFA I'm ambivalent...but if it swings Hill (more than likely a Saint, by the sounds of things) I'm for it. Whitfield and Cogs will be a big monetary jolt to absorb in one hit.

I'd like to use our first, get Finn with second, upgrade Ollie and maybe harry Jones, and 3 imports

So 2021 for flag number 14 then? I can wait until then.

 

[Furn2]

Don’t forget folks we HAVE to use a first rounder IN THE DRAFT, by the 2020 Draft.

The "punishment" for breaching that rule is maybe not being able to trade your future 1st rounder.

 

[Billyc]

I was having an argument with a mate today about Jackson Macrae, I was saying that he is not far off Cripps and he was losing it.. But looking at them statistically and theres a very strong argument that he is not far off, his DE is elite and he kicks the footy almost as much as he handballs. What you say makes sense though, would be great to see Jags and Cogs closer to 70% DE, either way you look at it both are poor poor especially Jags who would surely be at the bottom of the barrel league wise?

Good example of how overrated stats are. Going on champion data rankings and stats you’d think the Bulldogs are unstoppable.

 

[Hawkk]

So 2021 for flag number 14 then? I can wait until then.

As long as we get #15 by the 100 year VFL anniversary I'll be happy,

Would have been nice to triple the combined Dogs and North flag count but we ****ed that up when we went out in straight sets in 2016

 

[SHAKESPEARE]

We sure Bill Vlahos didn't say this?

 

[tige19]

Different roles really, a more fair comparison for Jackson Macrae would be Matt Crouch. Macrae is predominantly a distributor, Cripps gets far more in terms of clearances and centre clearances. There are multiple ways that you can break down midfielders, but this is how I tend to break it down and it seems fair:

Inside: Cunnington, Cripps, Oliver, Kennedy (Swans)
Inside/Outside (accumulation): Brad Crouch, Mitchell, Neale
Inside/Outside (impact): Dusty, Fyfe, Dangerfield, O'Meara, Bontempelli, Shiel
Outside/Inside (accumulation): Matt Crouch, Macrae, Gaff
Outside/Inside (impact): T Kelly, Shuey, Jack Steven, Whitfield
Outside: Smith, Hill, Polec

Jaeger isn't necessarily at the bottom of the barrel league wise either. When you look at similar players who are being asked to play similar roles. He's up there - but he's up there with names that you wouldn't really hate being up there with. In terms of turnovers, the top 10 is made of:

Boak
Brad Crouch
Gaff
Taranto
O'Meara
Bontempelli
Shuey
David Swallow
Dylan Shiel
Elliot Yeo

Jaeger could definitely still be the player that we need him to be, or that he could conceivably be, but it depends on having others in the team that allow him to play that role.

Great summation, very rounded and logical.. I think you may undersell Macrae a little, he gets plenty on the inside, his hands in close are absolutely elite, as in Tom Mitchell levels. Overall though, I agree with everything you said.

I would like Jags to be a bit more damaging, he is at that point of being an "almost player" in terms of the elite, he probably sits in the bracket of 30 other mids in the league who are good to very good mids.

 

[Rich the babe Evans]

Just commenting to show off my profile pic.

 

[Dewnior]

Don’t forget folks we HAVE to use a first rounder IN THE DRAFT, by the 2020 Draft.

That could easily be achieved by trading out Smith for a 2nd rounder. Trade that 2nd rounder + future 2nd rounder for another teams 2020 1st rounder. El presto!

We don't need to have a first round pick to use before the draft if one of our F/S or NGA picks are bid on in the 1st round of either 2019 or 2020 drafts

 

[Milkshaker]

I wouldnt worry about JOM DE with our current setup. He is belting it on the boot to just get it forward.

Mitch back in he will resume getting the coal face stuff. JOM is next the chain & id expect his disposal to tighten up

This. Was gutted we would not see it this year. With a bit more time and space I think we will get a better idea of why we really wanted him at the Hawks.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Anyone considering who should be target number 1 between Cogs and Whitfield need look no further than our current best inside mid in Jags. Jom has a DE% of 61%, it’s damn horrendous, Cogs is much better in tight and by foot he is levels above Jags. I know people will say that Jags has been shouldering the load, but guys like Cripps/Macrae/Neale/Fyfe/Dunkley etc all get more contested footy and dispose of it at 70-75%. Bringing Cogs in to partner with Titch will ensure much cleaner footy for our runners, that is key in today’s footy.

Cogs all the way, Lachie can wait if it’s not this year.

Think about it this way.... do you think we engage two players at the same club knowing that we can only get one of them and that we’re going to disappoint one of them ?

I don’t.

If we’re talking to both, I can only assume we intend to land them both.

 

[Brishawk]

I wouldn’t worry about omeara.

As elite players are surrounded by elite players everyone’s de will rise. Elite players are better at positioning themselves to receive the ball and better at creating time for themselves and better at using the ball under pressure and putting team mates in a better position than themselves. Shiels can win a contest and give it off but he isn’t as clean picking it up, nor does he have as good vision or skills as Tom Mitchell. So if you have Tom Mitchell getting 12-15 contested possessions a game and omeara sitting outside him getting a better quality ball out than he gets from shiels (or Worpel or Howe etc) then you are going to see him burst into space more and bang it on the boot less. Or at least get a cleaner ball off to a team mate by hand.

I think omeara will move to the hff next season if we get all of cogs, Whitfield and Finn. Having wingard and omeara go up against second string midfielders of the opposition will be when we pile on the pain. They need to be partnered by a big bodied brute that can clear space. In the short term maybe Howe but hopefully Finn can play that role. Just like we did with Rioli (wingard), Burgoyne (omeara), and roughy (Howe/Finn).