Hawthorn Premiership Odds

[threesixpio]

Think Hawthorn, similar to Geelong are capable of beating any side on any day. Its just that I cant see either of them winning 3 or 4 tough matches in a row to win it all. No team would be happy to be lining up against them in September.

Good post. In fact /thread

 

[captain cotch 9]

Don't really understand why you'd not want to play a team you smashed at the MCG not all that long ago, and who have had more injury issues since then, versus a team you beat by 13 points and will likely have a bunch of upgrade INs if we meet in the QF.

It is true you've done ok against us in previous years, and won comfortably (29 points) in round 20 last year, but it hasn't all gone your way. With Martin, Cotchin, Jack and Rance all playing (and Martin killing it), we pantsed you by 70 late in the season in 2016, just at the time we were starting to show some cracks, so the 'match up well against us' isn't always the case.

Collingwood are the top 8's bunnies at the G at the moment, versus Hawthorn who have won 11 finals at the MCG this decade, and whose only losses there this year were by narrow margins (13 and 8). If I was a Richmond fan I'd probably prefer Collingwood over any of the Vic teams likely to make it. Geelong and Hawthorn are the only teams that have got close against Richmond at the G this year (together they compromise your 3 closest wins at the ground so far), and I expect that if neither of those teams can beat Richmond during finals this year, then Richmond will have back-to-back sewn up as Richmond will not travel otherwise, and they are too good against everybody else at the G where they will likely park themselves for the entire finals series.

Im not thinking about past games because its irrelevent. The teams are completely different.
I just think Collingwood match up better against the Tigs than the Hawks.
Just my opinion buddy haha..

 

[Max Caddy]

Richmond easily the best in the comp at the moment.

Just don't say they are beatable.

 

[Scotland]

Think Hawthorn, similar to Geelong are capable of beating any side on any day. Its just that I cant see either of them winning 3 or 4 tough matches in a row to win it all. No team would be happy to be lining up against them in September.

Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney all have a weird thing going on where their games are close and the away side often wins.

Distinct possibility one of the three ends up in 3rd/4th and the other two in 5th-8th. AFL would be creaming themselves over the prospect of Hawthorn vs Geelong in week 1 and the winner playing Sydney in week 2, or similar.

 

[CD Xbow]

It's statistically proven that the team that gets rid of Vickery wins the flag the following year

Be afraid be very afraid Hawthorn haters!

That's a 100% fact and the real secret to our improvement..

 

[Rotayjay]

If Hawthorn win the flag it would be a pretty cool, out-of-the-box flag.

This is despite Hawthorn's recent dominance and their 5 premierships in the AFL era. Yes it's a well-run club but this year they have really snuck up on everyone.

What an unusual footy story it would be: a side wins three premierships in a row, drops out at the semi-final stage the following year, and misses the eight altogether the year after. They refresh their squad, look like they'll miss the eight again, but then waltz into the top 4 and beat a much more highly-fancied opponent on GF day. Wouldn't mind seeing it happen.

 

[Scotland]

Hawthorn winning the flag is some kind of feel good story? WTF happened to BigFooty? Are Richmond supporters that bad?

The only thing about that eventuality that isn't awful is Roughead playing in all 5. Would also be cool to see Ablett or Selwood who played in 2007 play in another GF. Burgoyne also played in 2007 for Port. McVeigh still around from 2006.

 

[hk89]

Maybe an off day. Richmond clearly put in a better body of work all season compared to the Hawks. Just my opinion, I think they will struggle in finals and if they finish top 4 might get bundled out in straight sets.

It goes without saying that Richmond have put in a better body of work this season than Hawthorn (and every other team). The reality is they've come closest to losing at the G against Geelong and Hawthorn. They've also shown to struggle winning interstate games this year. Hawthorn only need 14 more points than last time to beat Richmond. Richmond could even get unlucky and get Hawthorn in the first week, lose, and then get Geelong in the second week. Pretty much the only teams they were not able to completely blow away at the G this year. This isn't the most likely scenario. The most likely scenario is they'll win every final and go back to back given current form, but there are certainly scenarios that could unfold that make it difficult for them. Losing in the first week of finals would make them very vulnerable given playing WC or GWS interstate in a prelim would be close to a 50/50 (at best) given interstate results for them this year.

Hawthorn have massive finals experience in terms of total games, but we would also be going into finals with quite a lot of players with very little finals experience. We may well go out in straight sets if we manage to finish top 4, but we've also got a better record against the top 8 than most of the other finalists. We have a much better top 8 record than Melbourne and Pies, have gone 2-0 against Cats this year, 1-0 against Port. Those are most of the teams we'd be likely to be playing after losing a QF. We lost to GWS and WC by 10 and 15, but neither of those were at the G, and it is unlikely we'd meet those before a prelim if we make the top 4 by finishing 4th given the way the ladder is unfolding. Still think we are more likely to drop from top 4 after the final H&A game, but would start to get excited if we finish top 4 and can with our QF, as that would be two games at the MCG away from a flag, and that is entirely do-able given our record on the ground, and the number of big game finals players we still have on our list.

Either way, mine or your opinion will have no effect on the outcome of each game.

Bigfooty would be a very boring place if we kept our opinions to ourselves when they don't impact the outcome of a game.

 

[Number37]

To what extent? All clubs struggle sans their best two or three players for extended periods.

IMO Hawthorn aren't going to get any better, they've played their best to get this far. They've had to play their best to get this far because they are simply not that good, as a collective. Like I said, they have 2 or 3 players that can easily take it to another level, but that is what they will be relying on.

Coaches have been plotting all year how to bring down Richmond.
Do you think they are going to play all of their cards in July.

Richmond might have one hand on the cup, but long way to go before they get both hands on it.
And any of the teams in the top 8 are capable of bringing them down on any given day.......and I will add Geel to that list.

Richmond have had a dream run with injuries also......only takes a bit of hamstring awareness to Rance (in particular) and they become a bit more vulnerable.
No different than any other team that has injuries throughout the year, or indeed leading into finals.......just a matter of when you get them and to whom.

You have just agreed with what I stated. i.e. Richmond would have to come back to the field, but that would be wishful thinking. A team or teams need to step it up to have any chance of knocking them off. Richmond have had all the answers so far. It is most definitely not beyond the realms of possibility that a team or teams could step right up, but IMO Richmond have been well ahead of anything anyone else has produced so far. The genius in their strategy is that you can't target one player , you need to break the collective. That is a bloody hard thing to do.

Did they play poorly or did the opposition make them play poorly?

Doesn't matter. IMO they have gone away and come back better after not playing well or not being allowed to play well. That is a dangerous sign for any would be contenders.

 

[bumsonseats]

If Hawthorn win the flag it would be a pretty cool, out-of-the-box flag.

This is despite Hawthorn's recent dominance and their 5 premierships in the AFL era. Yes it's a well-run club but this year they have really snuck up on everyone.

What an unusual footy story it would be: a side wins three premierships in a row, drops out at the semi-final stage the following year, and misses the eight altogether the year after. They refresh their squad, look like they'll miss the eight again, but then waltz into the top 4 and beat a much more highly-fancied opponent on GF day. Wouldn't mind seeing it happen.

I don't think we have really snuck up on everyone...….everyone else (bar Rich) have fallen over.
Collingwood have got half their side out injured.....
GWS likewise
WC injury and suspension to 2 key players - have they got the talent to cover these loses.....??
Melb don't know how to win when it matters
North shoot themselves in the foot when they have everything to play for.
Sydney looked cooked there for a while, but showing some fight again these last couple of games.
Port have ben masquerading as a contender for the last 12 months but have been found out.

Hawthorn haven't been smashed with injuries, and despite a couple of inconsistent performances, we have got the job done in the last couple of weeks when others might have suggested we were not good enough. Might be a case of last man standing gets to have a shot at the title.

When the whips are cracking, I doubt Hawthorn is good enough to get past the 2nd week of finals.....and even that is a massive over achievement.

 

[hk89]

IMO Hawthorn aren't going to get any better, they've played their best to get this far.

We comprise half of Brisbane's wins for the season. I'd say there is scope for improvement. If we'd beaten Brisbane when we played them (like almost every other team did) we'd be likely sitting second right now. We also had more players with under 50 games on the weekend than the rebuilding Brisbane had. Pretty sure those 8 players with under 50 games have a lot of scope for improvement. 4 of them had 10 or under games, pretty sure they have massive scope for improvement. Maybe when those 4 players have 50 games instead of 10 or less, we'll beat Geelong by 10 goals next time. Hell, even Tom Mitchell is still improving given this year was even better than last year. Thanks for that one.

You have just agreed with what I stated. i.e. Richmond would have to come back to the field, but that would be wishful thinking.

How far back is the field? Geelong only lost by 3 points, we only lost by 13. Richmond are not as far ahead of the field as it might look. They are not massively ahead of Geelong and Hawthorn when playing them at the MCG, and they are probably behind several interstate teams if they have to play outside of Victoria. They are definitely ahead overall, but also definitely gettable. Chris Scott copped a lot of shit for saying so, but he also happened to be right.

 

[Power Raid]

I personally had the Hawks outside of the 8 this year, thinking they were still rebuilding.

This is a major achievement by Clarkson and his squad to deliver such an amazing result.

Personally I'd love it, if they went all the way.

 

[hk89]

Im not thinking about past games because its irrelevent.

Normally when people say one team matches up better on another, they are referring to past games as evidence, but I can see how you can also make that claim looking at the lists as well, but I'd prefer to look at the last on field performance than theoretical list matchups. On paper matchups don't mean anywhere near as match as actual games IMO.

 

[Scotland]

How far back is the field? Geelong only lost by 3 points, we only lost by 13. Richmond are not as far ahead of the field as it might look. They are not massively ahead of Geelong and Hawthorn when playing them at the MCG, and they are probably behind several interstate teams if they have to play outside of Victoria. They are definitely ahead, but also definitely gettable. Chris Scott copped a lot of shit for saying so, but he also happened to be right.

They've done enough already to secure a top 2 spot, so the only way they play away from the MCG in September is if someone knocks them off in the QF. Knowing their luck if that happens another Vic team will have pinched second or knocked us off in a Perth QF.

I agree they are not miles ahead (I think back to seasons like 2009 and 2010 with much stronger teams at the top) but they are in the box seat. Teams like Geelong and Hawthorn that have run them close may have to beat each other in an EF then win an away SF just to have a crack at Richmond which makes it tougher. It's probably beyond Geelong but if Hawthorn or Sydney can nab 4th they get first crack in a QF.

 

[Number37]

We compromise half of Brisbane's wins for the season. I'd say there is scope for improvement. If we'd beaten Brisbane when we played them (like almost every other team did) we'd be likely sitting second right now. We also had more players with under 50 games on the weekend than the rebuilding Brisbane had. Pretty sure those 8 players with under 50 games have a lot of scope for improvement. 4 of them had 10 or under games, pretty sure they have massive scope for improvement. Maybe when those 4 players have 50 games instead of 10 or less, we'll beat Geelong by 10 goals next time. Hell, even Tom Mitchell is still improving given this year was even better than last year. Thanks for that one.



How far back is the field? Geelong only lost by 3 points, we only lost by 13. Richmond are not as far ahead of the field as it might look. They are not massively ahead of Geelong and Hawthorn when playing them at the MCG, and they are probably behind several interstate teams if they have to play outside of Victoria. They are definitely ahead overall, but also definitely gettable. Chris Scott copped a lot of shit for saying so, but he also happened to be right.

What does X players under 50 games really mean?

It is just a rubbish stat used by media types.

An even more useless stat is we had xxx more players under 50 games than the rebuilding Lions.

I bet you could name a whole team of current players that have played under 50 games and they would be the shittest team ever, now, next week and in a 100 games time.

Tom Mitchell is the most overrated player in the league. That is not saying he is a bad player, you can keep him. In the wash-up of that trade we ended up with Florent and Hayward. IMO Hayward by himself will prove to be a far superior player to Mitchell. Florent ain't half bad either.

Your under 10 games brigade are vanilla at best, your upside is going to disappoint, IMO. The Cats have unearthed some genuine talent & will be miles ahead of you in no time.

How far back is the field? Miles.

 

[WWSD]

What does X players under 50 games really mean?

It is just a rubbish stat used by media types.

An even more useless stat is we had xxx more players under 50 games than the rebuilding Lions.

I bet you could name a whole team of current players that have played under 50 games and they would be the shittest team ever, now, next week and in a 100 games time.

Tom Mitchell is the most overrated player in the league. That is not saying he is a bad player, you can keep him. In the wash-up of that trade we ended up with Florent and Hayward. IMO Hayward by himself will prove to be a far superior player to Mitchell. Florent ain't half bad either.

Your under 10 games brigade are vanilla at best, your upside is going to disappoint, IMO. The Cats have unearthed some genuine talent & will be miles ahead of you in no time.

How far back is the field? Miles.

What an ignorant post. The same Cats team that couldn’t beat Hawthorn? Worpel was the best young player on the ground.

 

[Number37]

What an ignorant post. The same Cats team that couldn’t beat Hawthorn? Worpel was the best young player on the ground.

Ignorance would be using 1 game as a definitive measure.

 

[Cyril says]

Tom Mitchell is the most overrated player in the league

18 AFL coaches have him named as the best player in the AFL in 2018 (so far).

Thanks for letting him go - we are loving watching him play.

-CS

 

[bumsonseats]

What does X players under 50 games really mean?

It is just a rubbish stat used by media types.

An even more useless stat is we had xxx more players under 50 games than the rebuilding Lions.

I bet you could name a whole team of current players that have played under 50 games and they would be the shittest team ever, now, next week and in a 100 games time.

Tom Mitchell is the most overrated player in the league. That is not saying he is a bad player, you can keep him. In the wash-up of that trade we ended up with Florent and Hayward. IMO Hayward by himself will prove to be a far superior player to Mitchell. Florent ain't half bad either.

Your under 10 games brigade are vanilla at best, your upside is going to disappoint, IMO. The Cats have unearthed some genuine talent & will be miles ahead of you in no time.

How far back is the field? Miles.

Salty.........

Just harnessing my inner Richmond

 

[Number37]

18 AFL coaches have him named as the best player in the AFL in 2018 (so far).

Thanks for letting him go - we are loving watching him play.

-CS

You have no choice but to love the way he plays.

You might want to check what the coaches votes represent.

I have a sneaky suspicion that the coaches are not voting on who is the best player in the league.

 

[Number37]

Salty.........

Just harnessing my inner Richmond

Salty?

About Hawthorn not being any good?

 

[Cyril says]

About Hawthorn not being any good?

Maybe your club didn’t know how to get the most out of Mitchell?

In 4 seasons he got 26 Brownlow votes with your mob - in 1 season under Clarko he got 25 votes with us.

Just sayin’ - nice to finally get one back after losing JPK so cheaply!

 

[AlwaysHawks15]

What does X players under 50 games really mean?

It is just a rubbish stat used by media types.

An even more useless stat is we had xxx more players under 50 games than the rebuilding Lions.

I bet you could name a whole team of current players that have played under 50 games and they would be the shittest team ever, now, next week and in a 100 games time.

Tom Mitchell is the most overrated player in the league. That is not saying he is a bad player, you can keep him. In the wash-up of that trade we ended up with Florent and Hayward. IMO Hayward by himself will prove to be a far superior player to Mitchell. Florent ain't half bad either.

Your under 10 games brigade are vanilla at best, your upside is going to disappoint, IMO. The Cats have unearthed some genuine talent & will be miles ahead of you in no time.

How far back is the field? Miles.

You sir are a peanut, read your comments about hawks can't get any better and just laughed. Within games were up and down like a yo-yo and have been all year. We're probably down with gold coast and Carlton in terms of 1st qtrs won for the year. When we're on though we are hard to stop. If you actually paid attention and watched some of our matches with a proper balanced view you would know there is upside. Roughie has been mediocre all year what happens if he steps up?, you haven't seen birchall all year and he will certainly make us stronger. 2 of our most important players are out injured yet were still winning (Big boy and Sicily), keep taking pot shots mate your bitterness and envy is showing.

 

[Number37]

Maybe your club didn’t know how to get the most out of Mitchell?

In 4 seasons he got 26 Brownlow votes with your mob - in 1 season under Clarko he got 25 votes with us.

Just sayin’ - nice to finally get one back after losing JPK so cheaply!

You're trying to bait the wrong person about Mitchell.

I have no qualms about letting him go.

In the age of stats, the stat padders get all the plaudits.

Mitchell gets 40 possessions when you lose by 10 goals and 40 when you win by 10 goals. I am yet to be convinced that he impacts games in a meaningful way. Occasionally he does but most of the time, IMO, he doesn't have any meaningful impact on the result of a game.

 

[DrEvil_]

What does X players under 50 games really mean?

It is just a rubbish stat used by media types.

An even more useless stat is we had xxx more players under 50 games than the rebuilding Lions.

I bet you could name a whole team of current players that have played under 50 games and they would be the shittest team ever, now, next week and in a 100 games time.

Tom Mitchell is the most overrated player in the league. That is not saying he is a bad player, you can keep him. In the wash-up of that trade we ended up with Florent and Hayward. IMO Hayward by himself will prove to be a far superior player to Mitchell. Florent ain't half bad either.

Your under 10 games brigade are vanilla at best, your upside is going to disappoint, IMO. The Cats have unearthed some genuine talent & will be miles ahead of you in no time.

How far back is the field? Miles.

Keep up the buttt hurt. Your tears are delicious.