Hawthorn Premiership Odds

[Number37]

How can anyone put forward a definitive argument on something that is yet to play out and is also very subjective? All we can do is point to recent performances and they have shown a bit. I mean, one guy mentioned the rising star noms in the past fortnight and you angrily shot that down...

Why are you being so belligerent when we are discussing something so subjective

I never said put forward a definitive argument. This is a discussion forum, last time I checked. Aside from the usual trolling by the usual bunch of Hawks fans there hasn't been anything of substance put forward.

Of course it is subjective, tell us why you think Hawks will be a challenger or why their youth will step it up.
I don't think they will, they have played some bog ordinary games and some really good games. On what I have seen it hasn't been the youth that has taken Hawthorn to where they are now. That is not to say they haven't contributed. The primary reason for Hawks resurgence IMO has been the lift in the consistency of form of the older brigade.

 

[PCORF]

Giving that Hawthorn have been there and done it before they probably have the 2nd best chance at winning it shall they finish with the double chance of course.

 

[hk89]

And I said your evidence is a little bit dodgy, given that it was you Hawks fans that labelled the Rising Star a hoax only last year.

I think we were unhappy with the way the voting on the final award works (having a panel that votes on players when they haven't seen all of each player's games, and when they have seen them, may have seen them many months before voting). I don't think any Hawk supporter had a problem with who was nominated. McGrath deserved his nomination, as did Burton.

I never said your youf is no good, I said they have played as well as they can this year and I can't see them getting to the next level for the finals.

You said that kids with under 50 games wouldn't improve, and also said the under 10 gamers were all vanilla.

There was a suggestion made by you that implied that just because they play more games they are going to get better. That is not entirely true.

Look. Games for kids in the AFL are not like post counts on big footy. It is accepted by pretty much everyone that kids don't play their best footy in their first 50 games, and that they need time both the body and their understanding of the game to mature. You seem to think that a player is going to play at the same level in their 50th game as the 1st. This is rarely true. Just because your first 50 bigfooty posts were likely as shit as your last 50 , doesn't mean the AFL works like that.

The Bombers of 2000. They must have ended up the greatest team of all time? Yes?

Why are you citing them? Are you getting confused with the Baby bombers (who were not even that young comparatively speaking to other young flag winning sides). In any case, there are lots of reasons why a team doesn't get better each year. They lose players, older players start to go down hill etc. I'm in no way saying you continually improve over your entire career as your games count goes up. I'm saying that in general most players improve during their first 50 games, and are a good deal better at 50-100 than they are at 0-50. You can try to pretend this isn't true, but it will just make you look like a bigger fool than you've already made yourself out to be.

Given you seem to be the one with the outlier opinion (that sub 50 gamers are unlikely to improve with more games). Why don't you provide some evidence that Hawthorn's sub-50 gamers are not an improvement trajectory?

 

[Number37]

I think we were unhappy with the way the voting on the final award works (having a panel that votes on players when they haven't seen all of each player's games, and when they have seen them, may have seen them many months before voting). I don't think any Hawk supporter had a problem with who was nominated. McGrath deserved his nomination, as did Burton.



You said that kids with under 50 games wouldn't improve, and also said the under 10 gamers were all vanilla.



Look. Games for kids in the AFL are not like post counts on big footy. It is accepted by pretty much everyone that kids don't play their best footy in their first 50 games, and that they need time both the body and their understanding of the game to mature. You seem to think that a player is going to play at the same level in their 50th game as the 1st. This is rarely true. Just because your first 50 bigfooty posts were likely as shit as your last 50 , doesn't mean the AFL works like that.



Why are you citing them? Are you getting confused with the Baby bombers (who were not even that young comparatively speaking to other young flag winning sides). In any case, there are lots of reasons why a team doesn't get better each year. They lose players, older players start to go down hill etc. I'm in no way saying you continually improve over your entire career as your games count goes up. I'm saying that in general most players improve during their first 50 games, and are a good deal better at 50-100 than they are at 0-50. You can try to pretend this isn't true, but it will just make you look like a bigger fool than you've already made yourself out to be.

Given you seem to be the one with the outlier opinion (that sub 50 gamers are unlikely to improve with more games). Why don't you provide some evidence that Hawthorn's sub-50 gamers are not an improvement trajectory?

I didn't bring the sub 50 game thing into the conversation. It was you (?) that brought it into the conversation and it was stated as if it was a given.

I stated explicitly that there is some truth to the theory that players improve with games.

 

[threesixpio]

I’m not happy about the Buddy bashing ending. And Cyril was awesome and heaps better than Jetta

 

[threesixpio]

I didn't bring the sub 50 game thing into the conversation. It was you (?) that brought it into the conversation and it was stated as if it was a given.

I stated explicitly that there is some truth to the theory that players improve with games.

I’m confused. I’m not sure what you’re saying. And I’m not that dumb

 

[gavaniacono]

If the hawks keep bringing the 2 and 3 qtrs against Cats into finals, big show. Odds shortening.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

The primary reason for Hawks resurgence IMO has been the lift in the consistency of form of the older brigade.

Who do you mean by the older brigade?

Because I'm not sure I agree.

McEvoy and Birchall have been injured, Burgoyne has been in and out, Roughy has stagnated and Frawley has been servicable at best. Gunston (26!) and Bruest (27!) and Smith (29) have been huge but they have been in good form all year, I wouldn't put the resurgence down to them, they've always been consistent. Stratton is probably the only member of the 'older brigade' who is maybe having a career year.

I think the resurgence IS primarily because younger players have stepped up over the past 5/6 weeks. JOM and Mitchell are leading the midfield now and both are in great form, this has also allowed Shiels to be released and he is relishing this. Hardwick, Impey and Burton have really lifted their form towards their best over the past month. Worpel and Morrison have come from the clouds to consistently perform a role.

Who did you mean when you said the older brigade??

 

[Number37]

Who do you mean by the older brigade?

Because I'm not sure I agree.

McEvoy and Birchall have been injured, Burgoyne has been in and out, Roughy has stagnated and Frawley has been servicable at best. Gunston and Bruest and Smith have been huge but they have been in good form all year, I wouldn't put the resurgence down to them, they've always been consistent. Stratton is probably the only members of the 'older brigade' who is maybe having a career year

I think the resurgence IS primarily because younger players have stepped up over the past 5/6 weeks. JOM and Mitchell are leading the midfield now and both are in great form, this has also allowed Shiels to be released and he is relishing this. Hardwick, Impey and Burton have really lifted their form towards their best over the past month. Worpel and Morrison have come from the clouds to consistently perform a role.

You mentioned 4 established premiership winning players, Shiel (dunno if he is a premiership player) , 3 ready made good + players, 1 younger player that is having a goodish year but not his best year, 1 that has had goodish year and 2 young players that have played a handful of good games between them.

Are you ready to concede that the youth haven't driven where you are right now?

 

[Iceman!]

You mentioned 4 established premiership winning players, Shiel (dunno if he is a premiership player) , 3 ready made good + players, 1 younger player that is having a goodish year but not his best year, 1 that has had goodish year and 2 young players that have played a handful of good games between them.

Are you ready to concede that the youth haven't driven where you are right now?

It is Shiels and he is a 3 time premiership player... You clearly have absolutely no idea about our list.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

You mentioned 4 established premiership winning players, Shiel (dunno if he is a premiership player) , 3 ready made good + players, 1 younger player that is having a goodish year but not his best year, 1 that has had goodish year and 2 young players that have played a handful of good games between them.

Are you ready to concede that the youth haven't driven where you are right now?

No. Did you read what I wrote? Read it again and put it in the context of the past 4-6 weeks, you know, the resurgence.

I said I disagree and put forward a pretty good outline of each of our players and whose rise in form over the past month has been the main factor behind our resurgence.

Also. FYI, Shiels has won 3 premierships. The last was only a couple of years ago! I mean, if you are going to trot about telling every other Hawks fan how wrong they are about their own list, you should probably know a bit more about who you are talking about. I think almost all AFL supporters would know that Shiels has won at least one premiership. This just outs you as a bit clueless.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

The primary reason for Hawks resurgence IMO has been the lift in the consistency of form of the older brigade.

You didn't answer me. Which players are you referring to when you the older brigade have driven our resurgence?

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I see West Coast as pretty vulrenable without Gaff & Nic Nat hoping we finish 3rd.

Perthboy will have a conniption.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It is Shiels and he is a 3 time premiership player... You clearly have absolutely no idea about our list.

Did chuckle.

 

[hk89]

I didn't bring the sub 50 game thing into the conversation. It was you (?) that brought it into the conversation and it was stated as if it was a given.

I stated explicitly that there is some truth to the theory that players improve with games.

So there is some truth to it, but you don't think it will apply to Hawthorn? Why?

 

[Number37]

No. Did you read what I wrote? Read it again and put it in the context of the past 4-6 weeks, you know, the resurgence.

I said I disagree and put forward a pretty good outline of each of our players and whose rise in form over the past month has been the main factor behind our resurgence.

Also. FYI, Shiels has won 3 premierships. The last was only a couple of years ago! I mean, if you are going to trot about telling every other Hawks fan how wrong they are about their own list, you should probably know a bit more about who you are talking about. I think almost all AFL supporters would know that Shiels has won at least one premiership. This just outs you as a bit clueless.

Worpel and Morissons handful of good games have surged Hawks into the top 4, is that your position?

Did you know that you won 12 games so far?

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

Worpel and Morissons handful of good games have surged Hawks into the top 4, is that your position?

No. Are you simple? ****ing read man.

 

[Back One Out]

I'm prepared to offer the entire world 100-1

Bring your money to me folks.

If you've got Hawthorn at 100-1 for the flag, then what odds would North Melbourne be at? 100 Billion to 1 ?

I feel for you, mate. You've been flexing your message board muscles and gobbing off all year.
And then your pea-hearts go and shit the bed against the Doggies and make you the laughing stock once again

 

[hawkman]

Worpel and Morissons handful of good games have surged Hawks into the top 4, is that your position?

Did you know that you won 12 games so far?

Well it is 13 actually

Worpel, Morrison are just a couple. Hardwick and Burton have really hit form in the last month as has O'Meara. Miles has been impressive in the last month as well

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

It is Shiels and he is a 3 time premiership player... You clearly have absolutely no idea about our list.

Yeah I'm done. I thought he was being flippant, as in 'I'll act as though know his name or how many flags he has won because he is irrelevant' but I think we are just dealing with a genuine idiot. I got him on ignore now, bit annoyed at myself for getting sucked in

 

[Number37]

You didn't answer me. Which players are you referring to when you the older brigade have driven our resurgence?

Older = not the younger.

Younger = kids

Mitchell, JOM, Impey were all established players, none went to Hawthorn looking for opportunity. They were best 22 from day one.

 

[Number37]

So there is some truth to it, but you don't think it will apply to Hawthorn? Why?

I didn't say it won't apply to Hawthorn. I said it does not AUTOMATICALLY apply, as was the suggestion.

 

[Snake_Baker]

If you've got Hawthorn at 100-1 for the flag, then what odds would North Melbourne be at? 100 Billion to 1 ?

I feel for you, mate. You've been flexing your message board muscles and gobbing off all year.
And then your pea-hearts go and shit the bed against the Doggies and make you the laughing stock once again

If our best fit 22 was playing Hawthorn then we'd be 1-10.

You must have got amnesia amongst all the glitter that has been thrown around lately.

Round 5 wasn't that long ago.

 

[hk89]

I didn't say it won't apply to Hawthorn. I said it does not AUTOMATICALLY apply, as was the suggestion.

Can you then explain this previous statement:

That means the improvement is NOT coming from your less than 50 gamers because IMO they aren't going to get any better.

Seems you ARE saying improvement for sub-50 gamers will not apply to Hawthorn.

I find your posts very confusing, in much the same way I find the rantings of the deranged confusing.

 

[Number37]

Yeah I'm done. I thought he was being flippant, as in 'I'll act as though know his name or how many flags he has won because he is irrelevant' but I think we are just dealing with a genuine idiot. I got him on ignore now, bit annoyed at myself for getting sucked in

Your entire argument you spent supporting what I stated at the beginning.
Sadly predictable that you would choose the faux outrage at Shiel not being recognised as a premiership player to get out of that hole you were digging.