Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[sr36]

Absolutely - long way to go.

But it’s about finding those key pillars

We are one tall back short of taking it to the next level. Every other position we are set for talent.

I thought you were headed for long term basket case when I saw your trades last year. But those mids have become solid quickly. You'll need one or two to become stars to do the full rise to be challengers in the medium term, but I can't see a long stay at the bottom.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Yep. Hawks are still a fair way off it, but your mids have come on quick and should make building yourself into a decent team inevitable.

Are they really that far off it? I get that people will want to wait and see just what the reality is, but it won’t surprise me if they jump up quickly.

Fair to assume that the Hawks should get a relatively easy draw too.

The youngest group in the comp were 3rd for Centre Clearances in 2023, and now with a few more forwards to score from, the inside 50 efficiency should definitely improve.

The below was from the back end of the year when the youngsters were meant to “tire”.

 

[sr36]

Are they really that far off it? I get that people will want to wait and see just what the reality is, but it won’t surprise me if they jump up quickly.

Fair to assume that the Hawks should get a relatively easy draw too.

The youngest group in the comp were 3rd for Centre Clearances in 2023, and now with a few more forwards to score from, the inside 50 efficiency should definitely improve.

The below was from the back end of the year when the youngsters were meant to “tire”.

View attachment 1838312

Champion Data and rankings for a 4 week statistical block. I'd like to see Champion Data rank the usefulness of these 4 week block rankings. Particularly at that stage of the season when effort is very variable depending on where the club is at.

It's good to be positive about your clubs chances in the upcoming year, but too positive and you get into disppointment territory.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Champion Data and rankings for a 4 week statistical block. I'd like to see Champion Data rank the usefulness of these rankings.

I wish we could get these things more freely.

It’s only on the odd occasion that “On the coach” or an article in the HUN publishes this sort of stuff that puts what you are seeing into quantifiable stats.

 

[sr36]

I wish we could get these things more freely.

It’s only on the odd occasion that “On the coach” or an article in the HUN publishes this sort of stuff that puts what you are seeing into quantifiable stats.

It was a 4 week Champion Data block at that time of season that gave Pies no chance and had the straight sets Demons as sure things. It's just nonsense if you're trying to pull something out of it. That block would include the game against us when we were lethargic witches hats and would probably not include the week before when you were torn apart around stoppage... Switch those games around and you'd probably plummet in all those areas. It's just silly.

 

[smish]

I'm changing my vote to yes

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

It was a 4 week Champion Data block at that time of season that gave Pies no chance and had the straight sets Demons as sure things. It's just nonsense if you're trying to pull something out of it. That block would include the game against us when we were lethargic witches hats and would probably not include the week before when you were torn apart around stoppage... Switch those games around and you'd probably plummet in all those areas. It's just silly.

So you think there was no correlation between the statistics and the fact that Hawthorn knocked off 2 top 8 sides and had the Giants and Tigers on the ropes in that 4 game block….just a coincidence?

Bold strategy to just ignore the chief statistic takers in the game because they didn’t like your team’s premiership chances at some point.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I agree with you guys pushing the 8 …. Likely won’t make it but will make things interesting.

North on the other hand will be neck and neck for another spoon

All hail the shinbeggars.

 

[Orange crush]

All hail the shinbeggars.

I prefer the term wishboners ... but either way, lol

 

[sr36]

So you think there was no correlation between the statistics and the fact that Hawthorn knocked off 2 top 8 sides and had the Giants and Tigers on the ropes in that 4 game block….just a coincidence?

Bold strategy to just ignore the chief statistic takers in the game because they didn’t like your team’s premiership chances at some point.

Strange opening question, as I didn't say anything of the sort.

It's picking a four week block and making a big deal about the data from that block that I'm ignoring. And I suspect that particular 4 week was the least reliable of all 4 week blocks. I'd be willing to bet the Premiers were bottom 4 for most of those categories in that 4 week block.

Hawthorn had a promising end to the season. And if you want to read a heap into the data set of that good luck to you.

But overall I think CD have an issue that is going to make their data analysis less instructive. Collingwood adjusted their game style significantly this year depending on the scoreboard - other teams began to follow. I expect it to become the norm like it is an several other invasion sports. So that type of overall game data is going to become a less accurate description of how a game was won and lost than it was.

 

[VernonSpots]

Let's be fair...hawks played fantastic against pies for that win.l and deserve the kudos. However, if Pies brought same intensity to that H&A game as they did in finals we wouldn't have been in it. Every Vic team 'gets up' for the Pies especially when they are top of the ladder cos it's a big game in front of a big crowd.

For the Pies, it was another late season game where they don't want any injuries or suspensions as top 2 was basically locked up.

 

[peetoo]

It was a 4 week Champion Data block at that time of season that gave Pies no chance and had the straight sets Demons as sure things. It's just nonsense if you're trying to pull something out of it. That block would include the game against us when we were lethargic witches hats and would probably not include the week before when you were torn apart around stoppage... Switch those games around and you'd probably plummet in all those areas. It's just silly.

Witches hats who found a spell in the final quarter most games. Hawks simply didn’t let them pull the Houdini trick

Mor relavant to say hawks win 8 out of 10 pies games usually

 

[YouBeauty]

If Hawthorn just pretended every opponent was Collingwood they'd win the flag.
I prefer to reserve tanking for clubs like Melbourne, Carlton some years back and Brisbane of 1998.

 

[sr36]

Let's be fair...hawks played fantastic against pies for that win.l and deserve the kudos. However, if Pies brought same intensity to that H&A game as they did in finals we wouldn't have been in it. Every Vic team 'gets up' for the Pies especially when they are top of the ladder cos it's a big game in front of a big crowd.

For the Pies, it was another late season game where they don't want any injuries or suspensions as top 2 was basically locked up.

Plus it's pretty clear that we were in the midst of a heavy training load. Lethargic and massacred at stoppage. Didn't defend the ground at all. Hawks smashed us in clearance and field kicking was awesome but we made it all pretty easy.

 

[hawkman]

Would be nice to just start a season well. Hasn't happened often since 2016. Many years we are playing decent footy in the backend of the year but are too far behind to do anything but lose draft spots

 

[sr36]

Witches hats who found a spell in the final quarter most games. Hawks simply didn’t let them pull the Houdini trick

Mor relavant to say hawks win 8 out of 10 pies games usually

Hawthorn won centre clearance stats 18 to 3. The Houdini trick requires energy, we were flat as. I've seen the running data on that game. We were well down on both Kms covered and sprints as we were in a couple of other games in that block. It wasn't a normal game. Hawks were very good though.

 

[Caligo]

So you think there was no correlation between the statistics and the fact that Hawthorn knocked off 2 top 8 sides and had the Giants and Tigers on the ropes in that 4 game block….just a coincidence?

Bold strategy to just ignore the chief statistic takers in the game because they didn’t like your team’s premiership chances at some point.

I don't think he is arguing that. I think he is saying we had a hot run of form (which we did) but you can't necessarily assume that we will consistently play like that over a year.

Like all good young teams, consistency is the most challenging aspect for us, and will be for a while. Very exciting times ahead for us though.

 

[Cyclops]

Look I didn't see many Hawthorn games but I don't think they tanked in the Melbourne/Carlton sense. They didn't look like guys losing on purpose.

They blooded kids and adapted the game plan. It didn't fly against the Melbourne/Geelong tough orthodox footy but worked (surprisingly) well against Collingwood and Brisbanes systematic new styles. Richmondesque chaos ball is soup de jour, Hawthorn has an antidote.

I think Mitchell is delivering good results on a thorough but not drawn out rebuild. Kosher.

With the cap, the draft (even this compromised draft) and free agency most lists are a year or two and a gameplan tweak away from dramatic ladder changes.Two or three players or a great assistant can do the trick, I think Longmuire was important for us in 2018.

Look at us this year, hardly the best list out there and not the best age profile either.

Two years from now Sicily could be hoisting the cup.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Doesn't really matter if you lift for the top 2 sides but get pumped by 3rd-15th

Hawks lost every interstate away game, most miserably. Shocking first halves against Melbourne, Port and Carlton. Shocking second half against the cats, dogs fremantle x2 and bombers.

Quite often they have no answer when the opposition are on a roll. Still alot of improvement and consistency needed to get out of the bottom 6

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Look I didn't see many Hawthorn games but I don't think they tanked in the Melbourne/Carlton sense. They didn't look like guys losing on purpose.

They blooded kids and adapted the game plan. It didn't fly against the Melbourne/Geelong tough orthodox footy but worked (surprisingly) well against Collingwood and Brisbanes systematic new styles. Richmondesque chaos ball is soup de jour, Hawthorn has an antidote.

I think Mitchell is delivering good results on a thorough but not drawn out rebuild. Kosher.

With the cap, the draft (even this compromised draft) and free agency most lists are a year or two and a gameplan tweak away from dramatic ladder changes.Two or three players or a great assistant can do the trick, I think Longmuire was important for us in 2018.

Look at us this year, hardly the best list out there and not the best age profile either.

Two years from now Sicily could be hoisting the cup.

It's hard for Hawthorn to lift the premiership cup in 2 years time when on paper (talent wise) they still have a bottom 4 list.

Sicily is hardly an on field leader in the vein of a Pendlebury either.

 

[Cyclops]

It's hard for Hawthorn to lift the premiership cup in 2 years time when on paper (talent wise) they still have a bottom 4 list.

Sicily is hardly an on field leader in the vein of a Pendlebury either.

No he's an annoying rat bag like Nick Maxwell, who seemed a joke selection after Buckley and Burns.

Cast your mind back to 2021 and how bad Collingwood looked. On Bigfooty and in the media most had us bottom 8, some bottom 4.

It's not likely but we show it's possible.

Collingwood doesn't have a top 4 list. Talent wise Carlton Melbourne GWS and Brisbane all much better lists for talent and age profile, arguably Geelong and Footscrsay too.

Talent matters but gameplan, coaching culture and luck all matter too.

 

[Yoda_]

what's more iconic Strapping Young Lad crowing the Hawks the greatest thing in the land or Red Bull bemoaning Essendon?

 

[sr36]

No he's an annoying rat bag like Nick Maxwell, who seemed a joke selection after Buckley and Burns.

Cast your mind back to 2021 and how bad Collingwood looked. On Bigfooty and in the media most had us bottom 8, some bottom 4.

It's not likely but we show it's possible.

Collingwood doesn't have a top 4 list. Talent wise Carlton Melbourne GWS and Brisbane all much better lists for talent and age profile, arguably Geelong and Footscrsay too.

Talent matters but gameplan, coaching culture and luck all matter too.

Yeah, but everyone seemed to miss the point that we still had the core of the 2018 grand final team. We're an old playing group put together over a long period of time. Hawthorns would be super quick and young without much experience together.

You're underestimating our list. We bat deeper than the most of the others you have above us and don't have as obvious holes.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

No he's an annoying rat bag like Nick Maxwell, who seemed a joke selection after Buckley and Burns.

Cast your mind back to 2021 and how bad Collingwood looked. On Bigfooty and in the media most had us bottom 8, some bottom 4.

It's not likely but we show it's possible.

Collingwood doesn't have a top 4 list. Talent wise Carlton Melbourne GWS and Brisbane all much better lists for talent and age profile, arguably Geelong and Footscrsay too.

Talent matters but gameplan, coaching culture and luck all matter too.

Geelong are cooked. Sydney, Freo, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast and arguably North Melbourne are closer to flag/sustainable finals success, than Hawthorn.

Sam Mitchell's shabby treatment of Tom Mitchell in his final year at the Hawks arguably doesn't bode well for a strong coaching culture at Hawthorn either.

But we will wait and see.

 

[Xtreme]

Two years from now Sicily could be hoisting the cup.

2024 is the year Sicily becomes premiership captain

FIXED!