Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Gavin Excell]

He’s is still revered and loved for everything he achieved for us, but yes, no doubt in many members minds there were quite a few things that happened later in his time with us that they didn’t like.

But it wasn't as if those list management decisions were solely his. Others would have had to sign off on them

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

But it wasn't as if those list management decisions were solely his. Others would have had to sign off on them

Yes, but this was the weight he carried as a 4 time premiership coach in the decisions the club was making.
He reportedly had a falling out with Wright regarding the way forward, Wright left. As recently as his last year Clarkson was still eyeing 29yr olds to come across, while the board and footy dept had obviously decided that they needed to break from this thinking.

 

[GoRoos2023]

Just providing a dose of reality. You can be as selective as you want but Carlton didn't just drop off in 2018. As you can see, it takes more than high draft picks to guarantee success.

Carlton finished:
2005 - 18th
2006 - 18th
2007 - 17th
2008 - 12th (picked up the best player in the comp)
2009 - 7th
2010 - 8th
2011 - 5th
2012 - 10th
2013 - 9th
2014 - 13th
2015 - 17th
2016 - 14th
2017 - 15th
2018 - 18th (+ AFL priority)
2019 - 16th
2020 - 11th

Melbourne was also a long time coming. Do you remember when they first finished bottom and had pick 1 and 2 in the draft? 2008 and then pick 1 again in 2009. But they were bottom 3 or 4 in prior years. 2019 was a complete shock given they played finals in 2018, and just missed out in 2017 after losing the last game. Maybe their premiership was over 40 years in the making? Alot of Brisbane's success could probably be put down to trading in guys like Neale, not to mention bringing in experience and leaders like Hodge. Schache was a bust.
Swans are unique in that they also enjoy the benefit of high quality academy selections. No doubt Warner, Gulden etc are great kids, but either way, take a look at the quality senior players/leaders both these clubs had even during the most recent lean years.

You talk as if bottoming out practically guarantees the ultimate success. Still requires plenty of luck and time and quality leaders at the club.

Man Carlton we’re bad for a long time weren’t they

 

[theiaofseed]

Not really. If Mitchell was played in his rightful position, last seasons clearances would have been stronger.
The thing that stands out in your numbers is that after a sample size of 2 games, your hit outs are significantly higher than last year. I would say that would also assist in providing your midfielders with the best opportunity to gain centre clearances.

Those numbers quite clearly show your midfield overall is significantly worse than last season. The domination of the Essendon and Sydney midfields and the players rotated through there clearly shows this.

But it’s not unexpected. What is hilarious is that you think it’s heading in the right direction because of ‘we have won centre clearances’.

15th in 2021, 18th 2020 so Ummm no Mitchell would've done jackshit. Mitchell is a significantly worse kick than Newcombe, Ward, Day, Mackenzie, Amon add in the fact our tackle numbers are through the roof, so how are you claiming are midfeild is worse?

 

[threesixpio]

Is Clarkson still revered at Hawthorn or is his legacy tarnished a little by the last few years?

Depends who you talk to. If what is said is true I personally think he is a total campaigner

 

[jackenny]

15th in 2021, 18th 2020 so Ummm no Mitchell would've done jackshit. Mitchell is a significantly worse kick than Newcombe, Ward, Day, Mackenzie, Amon add in the fact our tackle numbers are through the roof, so how are you claiming are midfeild is worse?

Biggest issue I find is a lot of Hawk supporters conflate O’Meara’s mediocrity with Mitchell. O’Meara was hideously overrated within the four walls for a bit there (it was pretty much Hawthorn’s thinking that O’Meara was their best clearance player, which was not quite right — reference: Mitchell explains his brutal decision to cut Jaeger O'Meara's minutes). Not just talking on the face of misleading statistics. Reality is O’Meara never had a penetrating kick or handball and in no way is a damaging clearance player now. His best was actually taking on a more defensive two-way running role. Basically, he was an overpaid Shiels for the Hawks.

Mitchell is genuinely elite, though. He has an average kick, but his ability to find the ball and give first use of the ball via handball is elite. Isaac Smith leaving and the Hawks having zero outside run made those traits utterly useless, though. You can see how bereft the Hawks were of outside run when they played St Kilda last year (got absolutely torched on the outside). Now, Mitchell is in his twilight years and being mighty useful in bringing DeGoey into the game. I believe with the introduction of Day to the midfield and Amon coming across that Mitchell would have done the same for them.

 

[parsons nose]

Biggest issue I find is a lot of Hawk supporters conflate O’Meara’s mediocrity with Mitchell. O’Meara was hideously overrated within the four walls for a bit there (it was pretty much Hawthorn’s thinking that O’Meara was their best clearance player, which was not quite right — reference: Mitchell explains his brutal decision to cut Jaeger O'Meara's minutes). Not just talking on the face of misleading statistics. Reality is O’Meara never had a penetrating kick or handball and in no way is a damaging clearance player now. His best was actually taking on a more defensive two-way running role. Basically, he was an overpaid Shiels for the Hawks.

Mitchell is genuinely elite, though. He has an average kick, but his ability to find the ball and give first use of the ball via handball is elite. Isaac Smith leaving and the Hawks having zero outside run made those traits utterly useless, though. You can see how bereft the Hawks were of outside run when they played St Kilda last year (got absolutely torched on the outside). Now, Mitchell is in his twilight years and being mighty useful in bringing DeGoey into the game. I believe with the introduction of Day to the midfield and Amon coming across that Mitchell would have done the same for them.

For a non Hawthorn person, this summation is pretty close to the mark. The other thing about O’Meara is he was unable to string games together, a bit like Wingard with his ongoing calf issues.

 

[theiaofseed]

Biggest issue I find is a lot of Hawk supporters conflate O’Meara’s mediocrity with Mitchell. O’Meara was hideously overrated within the four walls for a bit there (it was pretty much Hawthorn’s thinking that O’Meara was their best clearance player, which was not quite right — reference: Mitchell explains his brutal decision to cut Jaeger O'Meara's minutes). Not just talking on the face of misleading statistics. Reality is O’Meara never had a penetrating kick or handball and in no way is a damaging clearance player now. His best was actually taking on a more defensive two-way running role. Basically, he was an overpaid Shiels for the Hawks.

Mitchell is genuinely elite, though. He has an average kick, but his ability to find the ball and give first use of the ball via handball is elite. Isaac Smith leaving and the Hawks having zero outside run made those traits utterly useless, though. You can see how bereft the Hawks were of outside run when they played St Kilda last year (got absolutely torched on the outside). Now, Mitchell is in his twilight years and being mighty useful in bringing DeGoey into the game. I believe with the introduction of Day to the midfield and Amon coming across that Mitchell would have done the same for them.

The problem with Mitchell being the solo warrior in the middle was him being the centre piece of transition which he isn't at Collingwood so he can play to his strengths, at Hawthorn that wouldn't be the case. They have mature mids that can that can play the outlet kick role while at Hawthorn our young mids would still look to get the ball in his hands through transition which isn't what you want.

Now Worpel isn't quite Mitchell[1] but he's not far off and it's no surprise Worpel with Mitchell out of the side like he was in 2019 has lead to a significant output increase, currently 2 second for inside 50's, 4th in contested possessions and 5th for centre clearances and 10th total clearances. Amon+Worpel isn't a large drop off from Mitchell+JOM.

The break down so far for Hawthorn this year is defending the spread and being unable to find a target in the 50, which you can't just lay at the hands of the Midfield.


[1]

 

[VinnieB]

15th in 2021, 18th 2020 so Ummm no Mitchell would've done jackshit. Mitchell is a significantly worse kick than Newcombe, Ward, Day, Mackenzie, Amon add in the fact our tackle numbers are through the roof, so how are you claiming are midfeild is worse?

You sure about that?

Didn't Mitchell miss the whole of 2019 with a broken leg? Missed some of 2020.
I don't know if he was the worst of that midfield. Was your leading clearance player in 2022 and didn't play his usual position.

Given you are so excited by the clearances over the first 2 games of the season, Mitchell is averaging 9 a game. This goes with his 15 contested possessions and 1.5 goals a game. What's more, he is rotating with Adams which has arguably made him an even more effective player so far this season.

Again, winning the hitouts can give you an advantage.

Did you look at any of the other stats produced in that table you brought up, other than having more tackles and centre clearances from last year?

Glad you're happy with your midfield.

 

[theiaofseed]

You sure about that?

Didn't Mitchell miss the whole of 2019 with a broken leg? Missed some of 2020.
I don't know if he was the worst of that midfield. Was your leading clearance player in 2022 and didn't play his usual position.

Given you are so excited by the clearances over the first 2 games of the season, Mitchell is averaging 9 a game. This goes with his 15 contested possessions and 1.5 goals a game. What's more, he is rotating with Adams which has arguably made him an even more effective player so far this season.

Again, winning the hitouts can give you an advantage.

Did you look at any of the other stats produced in that table you brought up, other than having more tackles and centre clearances from last year?

Glad you're happy with your midfield.

Not sure what 2019 has anything to do with 2020-2022, Mitchell missed the last 4 weeks of 2020 due to soft tissues and nothing related to his broken leg.

You do reealise that the ruck is apart of the midfield right? You're aruging we're tanking by trading out JOM and Mitchell but that's how we got Meek which is now contributing to the better ruck performance and change in clearance numbers the only thing Mitchell is good at. On top of this Mitchell's season hasn't been much better than Worpel who has step in and replaced Mitchell.

You think Mitchell is a better kick than the ones listed?

 

[The 747]

Went from negative 6.8 clearances a game to being plus 1
Went from negative 8 tackles a game to plus 3.6

Would seem losing Mitchell and JOM in 2 games has alreayd made us a significantly better clearance team

Well yes, but also a team with an average losing margin of about 11 goals.

 

[Jables]

Because if there's anything the AFL needs it's for one of its bigger clubs to develop no stars in favour of unexciting but hard working plodders.

You sure about that?

Didn't Mitchell miss the whole of 2019 with a broken leg? Missed some of 2020.
I don't know if he was the worst of that midfield. Was your leading clearance player in 2022 and didn't play his usual position.

Given you are so excited by the clearances over the first 2 games of the season, Mitchell is averaging 9 a game. This goes with his 15 contested possessions and 1.5 goals a game. What's more, he is rotating with Adams which has arguably made him an even more effective player so far this season.

Again, winning the hitouts can give you an advantage.

Did you look at any of the other stats produced in that table you brought up, other than having more tackles and centre clearances from last year?

Glad you're happy with your midfield.

Dude no-one cares about losing Mitchell, I'm sorry you're annoyed that a bunch of kids replacing him and O'Meara haven't made our midfield visibly worse, it's our team wide defensive efforts that are letting us down not our midfield core even if it's severely underdeveloped. Sure there's some hidden factors hiding the fact that Tom Mitchell was an absolute jet of a player for us if it makes you happy.

 

[VinnieB]

Not sure what 2019 has anything to do with 2020-2022, Mitchell missed the last 4 weeks of 2020 due to soft tissues and nothing related to his broken leg.

You do reealise that the ruck is apart of the midfield right? You're aruging we're tanking by trading out JOM and Mitchell but that's how we got Meek which is now contributing to the better ruck performance and change in clearance numbers the only thing Mitchell is good at. On top of this Mitchell's season hasn't been much better than Worpel who has step in and replaced Mitchell.

You think Mitchell is a better kick than the ones listed?

I never said anything about tanking. I suggest you work on your comprehension. Or should I write slower for you?

I'm saying that your midfield is worse than last season and focusing on better centre clearance numbers after 2 games to say your midfield is better than last year is totally nonsense. Particularly given the midfield has been slaughtered by the opposition in practically every other metric.

Do I tjhink Mitchell is a better kick than those listed? Is that what determines the better midfielder? I think Worpel and Newcombe are very ordinary with their disposal. We saw it again last week with Newcombe's grubbered kick and completely missing targets up forward.

Mitchell has other strengths that his current coach and teammates have been able to maximise. Unfortunately, his previous coach failed.
As I said, Mitchell has made his teammates better.

Did trading out Mitchell get you Meek? What happened to Reeves? Last season you were banging on about him as if he was the second coming of Christ.

 

[theiaofseed]

I never said anything about tanking. I suggest you work on your comprehension. Or should I write slower for you?

I'm saying that your midfield is worse than last season and focusing on better centre clearance numbers after 2 games to say your midfield is better than last year is totally nonsense. Particularly given the midfield has been slaughtered by the opposition in practically every other metric.

Do I tjhink Mitchell is a better kick than those listed? Is that what determines the better midfielder? I think Worpel and Newcombe are very ordinary with their disposal. We saw it again last week with Newcombe's grubbered kick and completely missing targets up forward.

Mitchell has other strengths that his current coach and teammates have been able to maximise. Unfortunately, his previous coach failed.
As I said, Mitchell has made his teammates better.

Did trading out Mitchell get you Meek? What happened to Reeves? Last season you were banging on about him as if he was the second coming of Christ.

This thread subject matter is dictated by the title, if you don't want to discussion that subject matter than jog on.... Or can't you comprehend the purpose of a title?

Still our number one ruck and not two quotes ago you talked about the advantage Hawthorn has in the ruck and tried to explain away why our midfield really isn't better by attributing it to our ruck but now you ask what happened to said ruck, talk about being thick.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

It’s all going well down at Dingley. And boy is Sammy’s Koolaid a delicious batch.

 

[MinerBoy]

Our early season struggles have more to do with the players that chose to leave (Gunston) and retire (McEvoy) than the trades of Mitchell and O’Meara. And this has been exacerbated by the injury and absence to Lewis.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[old55]

After a period of sustained success Hawthorn is bottoming out for the first time in 20 years. A new coach has a clear outline for his plans and supporters and members are happy to give his vision time to come to fruition. That patience exists because of the period of sustained success. It's an important factor.

If there isn't noticeable improvement come this time in 2025 perhaps questions will start to arise.

Nudging towards 3000 days without a finals win at the end of this year. Will be heading for 4000 by the end of 2025 - that's Essendon territory - wonder if someone will start a counter?

 

[The Nostradamus]

kosi dropped for no key tall #tank

 

[hawkman]

kosi dropped for no key tall #tank

You obviously haven't watched Kosi the firsr 2 weeks. No key tall is a better option that playing him

 

[VinnieB]

This thread subject matter is dictated by the title, if you don't want to discussion that subject matter than jog on.... Or can't you comprehend the purpose of a title?

Still our number one ruck and not two quotes ago you talked about the advantage Hawthorn has in the ruck and tried to explain away why our midfield really isn't better by attributing it to our ruck but now you ask what happened to said ruck, talk about being thick.

o...k...

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

I never said anything about tanking. I suggest you work on your comprehension. Or should I write slower for you?

I'm saying that your midfield is worse than last season and focusing on better centre clearance numbers after 2 games to say your midfield is better than last year is totally nonsense. Particularly given the midfield has been slaughtered by the opposition in practically every other metric.

Do I tjhink Mitchell is a better kick than those listed? Is that what determines the better midfielder? I think Worpel and Newcombe are very ordinary with their disposal. We saw it again last week with Newcombe's grubbered kick and completely missing targets up forward.

Mitchell has other strengths that his current coach and teammates have been able to maximise. Unfortunately, his previous coach failed.
As I said, Mitchell has made his teammates better.

Did trading out Mitchell get you Meek? What happened to Reeves? Last season you were banging on about him as if he was the second coming of Christ.

Another bad take from Vinnie as is the norm.

Last year you said we’d win the spoon. Didn’t you lol at every second post suggesting we wouldn’t? Pretty sure you did.

Then you argued that Tom Mitchell wasn’t a very good midfielder. You lol’d at every second post that said he was good but being played out of position. Now he’s yours and you’re smitten.

You tried to tell me that there was no proof that Sam Mitchell would play two rucks. You lol’d at every post highlighting that we’ve always played two rucks since the early Clarkson years, when they’re available. We’ve played 2 rucks in all games so far this year too.

Then you start taking umbrage to Hawthorn posters stating that we’ve seen improvement in the midfield. You lol at every second post that mentions it. Sam Mitchell gets on Footy Classified and declares that the midfield is not the area of concern for us at the moment and that the midfield is going quite well. Ouch.

Almost every time you put a stake in the ground and lol at the opposing position, you’ve the footy gods conspires against you.

So please keep questioning the Hawks, our midfield growth and our rebuild.

INB4 “lol” notification.

 

[VinnieB]

Another bad take from Vinnie as is the norm.

Last year you said we’d win the spoon. Didn’t you lol at every second post suggesting we wouldn’t? Pretty sure you did.

Then you argued that Tom Mitchell wasn’t a very good midfielder. You lol’d at every second post that said he was good but being played out of position. Now he’s yours and you’re smitten.

You tried to tell me that there was no proof that Sam Mitchell would play two rucks. You lol’d at every post highlighting that we’ve always played two rucks since the early Clarkson years, when they’re available. We’ve played 2 rucks in all games so far this year too.

Then you start taking umbrage to Hawthorn posters stating that we’ve seen improvement in the midfield. You lol at every second post that mentions it. Sam Mitchell gets on Footy Classified and declares that the midfield is not the area of concern for us at the moment and that the midfield is going quite well. Ouch.

Almost every time you put a stake in the ground and lol at the opposing position, you’ve the footy gods conspires against you.

So please keep questioning the Hawks, our midfield growth and our rebuild.

INB4 “lol” notification.

That's a lie. As I would expect from you.
I said North would win the spoon, and the Pies would be bottom 4.

You said the Hawks would be playing finals, right until the pre-season game when you realised how ordinary Hawthron was.

Sam Mitchell playing 2 rucks just 'because Clarkson played 2 rucks since the early years', was what I challenged. It's fair to assume Mitchell is his own coach and wouldn't necessarily copy what Clarko did.

Is Sam Mitchell your God? It's interesting whatever Sam Mitchell says you take as gospel. Reading some of your posts, it seems you're his little lap dog. 'Hey all Sam says.....' He is copping some heat for cutting 2 experienced midfielders, so what do you think he is going to say? Maybe he should have mentioned the midfielders need to run back to help support the defense. Or they need to improve delivery into the forward line. Or maybe they need to learn how to play a little closer to the opposition midfielders who controlled the game and hit the scoreboard. They did none of that and despite the shellacking, they got more centre bounce clearances.

I bet if I could be bothered to go back to your posts you would have been a Tom Mitchell cheerleader until Sam Mitchell commenced coaching and started phasing him out of the midfield. Then suddenly Sammy mesmerized you into believing he was the cause of your midfield problems.
I just provide some sense and balance.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

That's a lie. As I would expect from you.
I said North would win the spoon, and the Pies would be bottom 4.

You said the Hawks would be playing finals, right until the pre-season game when you realised how ordinary Hawthron was.

LOL, I probably presented a case where we could play finals, not that we would. There is a difference.

 

[Freomaniac]

The whole cut too deep thing is bullshit.

Our midfield were not the problem against Sydney. It was the forwardline and defence that let us down.

Sam has put immense trust in a younger midfield and it’s already showing good results.

I’m totally backing in Sammy. Love the little fat bloke and always will

Well you are entitled to your opinion and that's fair enough.

Your mob cut the list deep at the end of 2004. Your team drafted well in 2004 and won a flag in 2008.

Your team cut deep at the end of 2022.

But I think the hawks drafted fine in the 2020, 2021 and 2022 drafts.

I won't be surprised if the hawks win a flag by 2026-27

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Sam Mitchell playing 2 rucks just 'because Clarkson played 2 rucks since the early years', was what I challenged. It's fair to assume Mitchell is his own coach and wouldn't necessarily copy what Clarko did.

Is Sam Mitchell your God? It's interesting whatever Sam Mitchell says you take as gospel. Reading some of your posts, it seems you're his little lap dog. 'Hey all Sam says.....' He is copping some heat for cutting 2 experienced midfielders, so what do you think he is going to say? Maybe he should have mentioned the midfielders need to run back to help support the defense. Or they need to improve delivery into the forward line. Or maybe they need to learn how to play a little closer to the opposition midfielders who controlled the game and hit the scoreboard. They did none of that and despite the shellacking, they got more centre bounce clearances.

I bet if I could be bothered to go back to your posts you would have been a Tom Mitchell cheerleader until Sam Mitchell commenced coaching and started phasing him out of the midfield. Then suddenly Sammy mesmerized you into believing he was the cause of your midfield problems.

Now you’re just being decieving, you were told numerous times that Mitchell selected two rucks when available, and you instead choose to pretend like he deliberately played Lynch at Box Hill, when he was coming back from after a month off with concussion.

Sam Mitchell is the coach of the club, Vin, so yeah I take note of what he’s saying a lot more than any Collingwood nuffie on Bigfooty with an axe to grind.