Janus
Advocatus Diaboli
- Sep 9, 2007
- 23,418
- 57,309
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Other Teams
- Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bulls
"I looked, and there before me was a white horse! Its rider held a bow, and he was given a crown, and he rode out as a conqueror bent on conquest." - Revelation 6:2
Today there was a knock at the door, and finally, FINALLY I got my hands on the 2017 AFL Prospectus. Naturally, straight to the Port Adelaide section. The opinion of Champion Data, based purely on the stats, is that we believed that we were a contender in 2014 - and justifiably so because we were according to the stats - and so recruited accordingly. But it is of their opinion that getting Dixon was a mistake because 'gorilla forwards are on the way out' (sounds familiar) and the fact that we gave up so much to get both he and Ryder meant that our list profile suffered when we should have been continuing to build through the draft.
The question Champion Data pose throughout their write up is a simple one: "Can these players get back to the level they were at in 2013/14 where their transition was elite? Or did they simply overachieve and 2015/16 is their true level?" Now, they don't really have the space to do a really in depth analysis of the data they are presented - but I do. So...let's begin. The first post will be about our list profile. All stats are per AFL 2017 Prospectus.
List Profile (Percentage better/worse than players the same age)
Elite Players - Robbie Gray (+53%), Justin Westhoff (+32%), Chad Wingard (+28%)
What will surprise no one is that both Chad Wingard and Robbie Gray are ranked Elite for 2017. Nothing needs to be said about these guys. They will perform week in, week out.
What will surprise everyone is that Justin Westhoff is ranked as an Elite KPF for 2017. Ranked elite for disposals and tackles and above average for marks, inside 50s and score assists. He only spent 74% of his time in the forward line - consider this to be the bench mark of key forwards in the future. Since 2010, he has averaged 16 disposals, 6 marks and 1 goal per game - the only other two to do this in the competition are Nick Reiwoldt and Tom Lynch from Adelaide.
As I've said before: 'gorilla forwards are on the way out'. That's why we got rid of Butcher and drafted Todd Marshall - who will be a better version of Westhoff. Westhoff's ability to fill multiple roles - second tall, third tall, crumber, leading forward - in the forward line allows us to play a smaller, more nippier set up rotating around Dixon.
These guys will stay elite in 2017.
Above Average Players - Jasper Pittard (+31%), Ollie Wines (+25%), Jack Hombsch (+24%), Nathan Krakouer (+ 20%), Matthew Broadbent (+20%), Travis Boak (+13%), Hamish Hartlett (-13%), Patrick Ryder (-13%)
These are the guys we need to step up and go to the next level if we are to be a contender this year. And honestly, it's not really hard for them to do so. If Pittard keeps up his form from last season, he'll join Gray, Westhoff and Wingard as being elite. Same with Wines - there were only three categories he didn't rate as elite or above average last season - marks, uncontested possessions and kick rating.
Boak fell down quite a bit last year - his pressure was elite, but his tackles, contested and uncontested possessions - and therefore disposals - dropped to average levels. But this will improve with the return of Ryder, who is listed as above average in both ruck win and hitout to advantage percentage - the new rule changes limiting third man up will enormously benefit him as an athletic ruck. These two are linked together like Batman and Robin.
Hombsch needs to improve their intercept marking this year. It's fine playing the holistic defensive structure that Bassett wants us to play, with repeat spoil attempts, but unless you're adding the other side of defending through intercept marking to generate quick rebound instead of a stoppage, any side is going to struggle. Again, I believe this is due to the lack of pressure from the midfield, which needs to be addressed if we want to get back where we belong.
Broadbent - did someone say he's not very good? He ranks above average for meters gained, disposals and score involvements. A prolific ball winner, elite for contested possessions and score launches per game. If you don't think we'll be better putting him at half back instead of having him try to fill holes on the wing, you're crazy.
Nathan Krakouer improved his one on one defending this year, moving from 36% of contests lost to 22%. Expect that to drop further as he gets another pre-season under his belt. Above average for contested possessions, intercept marks, intercept possessions and spoils. He is what you might think Byrne-Jones is, but actually isn't, and it's why he was elevated to the senior list.
Hartlett couldn't be any worse than he was last year. Well, he could, but that would make him a scrub, and he's not a scrub. Maybe he was mentally affected by his hamstring injury - who knows? But a new dual role (defender/midfield) and added responsibility on the field instead of off it (making him vice captain was a mistake) could be the making of him.
Average Players - Aaron Young (+10%), Jackson Trengove (+8%), Jarman Impey (+8%), Tom Jonas (+5%), Jared Polec (+1%), Karl Amon (-1%), Jake Neade (-6%), Brendon Ah Chee (-6%), Charlie Dixon (-7%), Brad Ebert (-15%), Sam Gray (-16%), Matthew White (-16%)
If you really want to know where the problem with our season was last year, it's in this list - and for various reasons. Aaron Young should improve, but one of the slights is his kicking, though his ball winning was above average. With a better build and more focused commitment, expect him to star in a forward pocket where his kicking actually improves.
Jackson Trengove suffered this year by playing as a primary ruck instead of a secondary one. He ranked elite for disposals, clearances and centre clearances, and above average for tackles. He is a competitive beast and will be a blessing swapping with Westhoff and Ryder through defence, ruck and forward. Expect him to improve massively.
Ditto Jarman Impey, who slot into the defensive forward role and ranked elite for score assists. His pressure acts were also elite for his position, but the one thing he needs to improve on is his goal scoring, since he provides a good target up forward.
Tom Jonas is an interesting one. Apparently he's above average as a general defender and above average for intercept marking (which is his primary role in the side) but his kicking and decision making lets him down because he was poor for generating plays from rebound. But that's why we have guys like Hartlett, Pittard and Broadbent in defence. This is why I have him in the back pocket over someone like Byrne-Jones, who we will look at later.
Jared Polec is a lynchpin of what makes us tick as a side. 3rd for meters gained at the club, sixth in the competition for intercept marking (3.5 per game), his performance or lack there of in 2016 was directly responsible for our lack of ball movement. He wasn't dropped just because he wasn't performing, but because when he doesn't perform his role, the entire side suffers. I'm expecting him to bounce back in a massive way in 2017.
If Karl Amon is having a good a pre-season as people suggest, it bodes well for the performance of the senior side. He is steadily improving every year and will push a number of players to perform to their maximum potential. Will end up being on the emergency list quite a bit if he isn't playing.
Jake Neade. If you don't rate him, you're clueless about football. Elite in forward 50 tackles and pressure acts, elite kick and the most post-clearance tackles at the club. His issue isn't his want or skill, it's his ability to win the ball. But Monfries may edge him out of the other defensive forward role (Impey has the other spot locked down) purely due to this fact. Along with Amon, he's good pressure on the first 22.
Brendon Ah Chee should be looking at Powell-Pepper, Atley and Drew and saying to himself 'There's no way I'm letting these guys jump the queue ahead of me'. In the SANFL, he ranks elite for disposals, contested possessions, clearances and score involvements. The issue is that his defensive side isn't what you need from an inside mid - but as a forward he still rated elite in the AFL for score assists and above average for tackles when playing forward. More good depth to the squad.
And now we come to the gorilla in the room. Charlie Dixon. For someone who was targeted 34% of the time by our midfield, he only managed to win the ball 27% of the time. So while 1 in 3 kicks were heading his way, he only won around 3 in 10. "That's because he had 4 guys hanging off of him!" Well, he was involved in 88 one on one contests but only won 30 - which was down 8% on 2015. So not only was he a poor target up forward, even when he got himself into a good position he struggled. However, I believe this was due to two things. 1) Dixon needed time to adjust to being the primary target of a forward line 2) Dixon needed to get his fitness base up to cope with our gameplan.
Oh, and get Tredrea to work with him on his positioning, FFS.
I'm not worried in the slightest about Brad Ebert, since the very decline in output that he suffered in 2016 can be directly attributed to the loss of a decent ruck in Ryder. Expect his clearance and ball winning numbers to improve this season and to push into the above average category.
Sam Gray is more depth. He was number one for chain involvements, playing more in an outside role. However, with Powell-Pepper most likely coming into the side, you will probably find that guys like Ebert and Boak will fill these roles.
Poor Matthew White had a horrible season in terms of luck, but his contribution as a half forward/wing cannot be underestimated. If we aren't playing Monfries in the side as a forward target, playing White would be almost a necessity, since we score 64% of the time when he is the sole target inside 50.
Below Average - Darcy Byrne-Jones (-5%), Logan Austin (-8%), Matthew Lobbe (-17%), Tom Clurey (-25%), Angus Monfries (-25%)
And now we reach end game. For all the people who waxed lyrical about Darcy Byrne-Jones, consider this - he is a defensive Jake Neade for pressure acts, and that's it. Elite for pressure in defensive 50, but below average or average in all other key areas. That's not what you want from a player in line for a pivotal role in defence. Can he improve and make that spot his own? Sure. But a lay down lock in everyone's best 22? Only if you're seduced by actual output over expected output. Or it could be that the way Port Adelaide defends is going to make the statistics they measure irrelevant.
Logan Austin is a case in point. Elite in spoils, but poor or below average in every other metric...yet managed to keep Tom Lynch (GC), Jesse Hogan, Drew Petrie, Ty Vickery and Travis Cloke goalless. Don't be surprised if he does the old Hinkley special and starts back in the SANFL to work on his intercept marking.
If Matthew Lobbe comes anywhere near the side in 2017, you know one of two things. He's either had a massive reversal of form or we are tanking to improve the free agency compensation we'll get for losing Pittard and Trengove when they leave to find a club that actually has a clue. Below average to poor in every single metric you can measure for a ruck. Needs to play permanent forward in the SANFL in the Dixon role (with Marshall playing the Westhoff role) to force him to learn accountability and contested marking.
Lack of offensive firepower is what is holding Tom Clurey back. Great at stopping, but poor in every offensive metric. Now, this could be a similar situation to Logan Austin, and it's just that he is playing a dedicated role and letting guys like Pittard do the heavy lifting of attack, but if he doesn't learn to 'join in', as Hinkley says, and push up the ground instead of just worrying about his man and that's it, we're never going to get anywhere. But that comes from experience, so give him time.
It's no secret that I'm a fan of what Angus Monfries brings to the side, and whether he spends his time in the SANFL or the AFL he will bring that defensive forward pressure on the opposition's key playmaker while kicking a goal a game. If the year off has done him good, he'll be an asset to the AFL side. If it hasn't, he'll still be serviceable depth.
Poor - Jimmy Toumpas (-24%)
Remember how there was an outcry about Dimitri being dropped? Well, being below average in every single area except meters gained and kick rating might have had something to do with it. It's good that he's having a good pre-season, because he needs one. That being said...he still improved on his rating that he had at Melbourne, so maybe there's hope.
The Unknowns
Of the rest, Riley Bonner will be a star, Jesse Palmer needs to work on his consistency at SANFL level which is why he didn't get a call up sooner, Dougal Howard will probably end up a victim of the move away from big key forwards/defenders, Billy Frampton is steadily improving every year but still has a bit more improvement to go before he earns a call up and Aidyn Johnson just needs to get on the park and find the pill. I'd expect Bonner and Palmer to get games at some point this season.
The Draftees
If you want to know what we drafted Sam Powell-Pepper, it's this: He is elite in delivery, goals, intercept possessions and score assists. The fact that Champion Data didn't even have him in their top 25 isn't a slight on him as a player - it just showed the strength of the draft pool.
Todd Marshall went about as good as you can expect a forward who hadn't played a lot of footy to go - elite tackler, above average at hitting the scoreboard, contested marks and forward 50 ground-ball gets. He will be a better version of Westhoff - which is why we drafted him.
Joe Atley can play inside or a more balanced inside/outside role and his performance doesn't dip. In TAC Cup, 55% of his possessions were contested, whereas at the U18 Championships, it was only 40% - yet he still racked up 22 and 20 disposals per game in each competition.
But Willem Drew is the standout for what we are looking for. missionpossible rated him as the player Port Adelaide needed, and when you consider that he ranked elite in clearances, contested possessions, tackles and score involvements, and above average for disposals...it wouldn't surprise me if all three of Powell-Pepper, Atley and Drew get games ahead of the likes of Sam Gray, Jesse Palmer and Brendon Ah Chee.
The Rookies
Pretty much every rookie on our list is rated by Champion Data except Will Snelling, who wins the ball a lot but has poor kicking. The only one worth looking at is Brett Eddy for 2017 - whether he plays or not is entirely determined by the ability of our midfield to find a target other than Charlie Dixon. Which is why it's good that Dixon hasn't been involved in training because quite frankly...we are our own worst enemy when it comes to the forward line.
But that's for the next post.
Today there was a knock at the door, and finally, FINALLY I got my hands on the 2017 AFL Prospectus. Naturally, straight to the Port Adelaide section. The opinion of Champion Data, based purely on the stats, is that we believed that we were a contender in 2014 - and justifiably so because we were according to the stats - and so recruited accordingly. But it is of their opinion that getting Dixon was a mistake because 'gorilla forwards are on the way out' (sounds familiar) and the fact that we gave up so much to get both he and Ryder meant that our list profile suffered when we should have been continuing to build through the draft.
The question Champion Data pose throughout their write up is a simple one: "Can these players get back to the level they were at in 2013/14 where their transition was elite? Or did they simply overachieve and 2015/16 is their true level?" Now, they don't really have the space to do a really in depth analysis of the data they are presented - but I do. So...let's begin. The first post will be about our list profile. All stats are per AFL 2017 Prospectus.
List Profile (Percentage better/worse than players the same age)
Elite Players - Robbie Gray (+53%), Justin Westhoff (+32%), Chad Wingard (+28%)
What will surprise no one is that both Chad Wingard and Robbie Gray are ranked Elite for 2017. Nothing needs to be said about these guys. They will perform week in, week out.
What will surprise everyone is that Justin Westhoff is ranked as an Elite KPF for 2017. Ranked elite for disposals and tackles and above average for marks, inside 50s and score assists. He only spent 74% of his time in the forward line - consider this to be the bench mark of key forwards in the future. Since 2010, he has averaged 16 disposals, 6 marks and 1 goal per game - the only other two to do this in the competition are Nick Reiwoldt and Tom Lynch from Adelaide.
As I've said before: 'gorilla forwards are on the way out'. That's why we got rid of Butcher and drafted Todd Marshall - who will be a better version of Westhoff. Westhoff's ability to fill multiple roles - second tall, third tall, crumber, leading forward - in the forward line allows us to play a smaller, more nippier set up rotating around Dixon.
These guys will stay elite in 2017.
Above Average Players - Jasper Pittard (+31%), Ollie Wines (+25%), Jack Hombsch (+24%), Nathan Krakouer (+ 20%), Matthew Broadbent (+20%), Travis Boak (+13%), Hamish Hartlett (-13%), Patrick Ryder (-13%)
These are the guys we need to step up and go to the next level if we are to be a contender this year. And honestly, it's not really hard for them to do so. If Pittard keeps up his form from last season, he'll join Gray, Westhoff and Wingard as being elite. Same with Wines - there were only three categories he didn't rate as elite or above average last season - marks, uncontested possessions and kick rating.
Boak fell down quite a bit last year - his pressure was elite, but his tackles, contested and uncontested possessions - and therefore disposals - dropped to average levels. But this will improve with the return of Ryder, who is listed as above average in both ruck win and hitout to advantage percentage - the new rule changes limiting third man up will enormously benefit him as an athletic ruck. These two are linked together like Batman and Robin.
Hombsch needs to improve their intercept marking this year. It's fine playing the holistic defensive structure that Bassett wants us to play, with repeat spoil attempts, but unless you're adding the other side of defending through intercept marking to generate quick rebound instead of a stoppage, any side is going to struggle. Again, I believe this is due to the lack of pressure from the midfield, which needs to be addressed if we want to get back where we belong.
Broadbent - did someone say he's not very good? He ranks above average for meters gained, disposals and score involvements. A prolific ball winner, elite for contested possessions and score launches per game. If you don't think we'll be better putting him at half back instead of having him try to fill holes on the wing, you're crazy.
Nathan Krakouer improved his one on one defending this year, moving from 36% of contests lost to 22%. Expect that to drop further as he gets another pre-season under his belt. Above average for contested possessions, intercept marks, intercept possessions and spoils. He is what you might think Byrne-Jones is, but actually isn't, and it's why he was elevated to the senior list.
Hartlett couldn't be any worse than he was last year. Well, he could, but that would make him a scrub, and he's not a scrub. Maybe he was mentally affected by his hamstring injury - who knows? But a new dual role (defender/midfield) and added responsibility on the field instead of off it (making him vice captain was a mistake) could be the making of him.
Average Players - Aaron Young (+10%), Jackson Trengove (+8%), Jarman Impey (+8%), Tom Jonas (+5%), Jared Polec (+1%), Karl Amon (-1%), Jake Neade (-6%), Brendon Ah Chee (-6%), Charlie Dixon (-7%), Brad Ebert (-15%), Sam Gray (-16%), Matthew White (-16%)
If you really want to know where the problem with our season was last year, it's in this list - and for various reasons. Aaron Young should improve, but one of the slights is his kicking, though his ball winning was above average. With a better build and more focused commitment, expect him to star in a forward pocket where his kicking actually improves.
Jackson Trengove suffered this year by playing as a primary ruck instead of a secondary one. He ranked elite for disposals, clearances and centre clearances, and above average for tackles. He is a competitive beast and will be a blessing swapping with Westhoff and Ryder through defence, ruck and forward. Expect him to improve massively.
Ditto Jarman Impey, who slot into the defensive forward role and ranked elite for score assists. His pressure acts were also elite for his position, but the one thing he needs to improve on is his goal scoring, since he provides a good target up forward.
Tom Jonas is an interesting one. Apparently he's above average as a general defender and above average for intercept marking (which is his primary role in the side) but his kicking and decision making lets him down because he was poor for generating plays from rebound. But that's why we have guys like Hartlett, Pittard and Broadbent in defence. This is why I have him in the back pocket over someone like Byrne-Jones, who we will look at later.
Jared Polec is a lynchpin of what makes us tick as a side. 3rd for meters gained at the club, sixth in the competition for intercept marking (3.5 per game), his performance or lack there of in 2016 was directly responsible for our lack of ball movement. He wasn't dropped just because he wasn't performing, but because when he doesn't perform his role, the entire side suffers. I'm expecting him to bounce back in a massive way in 2017.
If Karl Amon is having a good a pre-season as people suggest, it bodes well for the performance of the senior side. He is steadily improving every year and will push a number of players to perform to their maximum potential. Will end up being on the emergency list quite a bit if he isn't playing.
Jake Neade. If you don't rate him, you're clueless about football. Elite in forward 50 tackles and pressure acts, elite kick and the most post-clearance tackles at the club. His issue isn't his want or skill, it's his ability to win the ball. But Monfries may edge him out of the other defensive forward role (Impey has the other spot locked down) purely due to this fact. Along with Amon, he's good pressure on the first 22.
Brendon Ah Chee should be looking at Powell-Pepper, Atley and Drew and saying to himself 'There's no way I'm letting these guys jump the queue ahead of me'. In the SANFL, he ranks elite for disposals, contested possessions, clearances and score involvements. The issue is that his defensive side isn't what you need from an inside mid - but as a forward he still rated elite in the AFL for score assists and above average for tackles when playing forward. More good depth to the squad.
And now we come to the gorilla in the room. Charlie Dixon. For someone who was targeted 34% of the time by our midfield, he only managed to win the ball 27% of the time. So while 1 in 3 kicks were heading his way, he only won around 3 in 10. "That's because he had 4 guys hanging off of him!" Well, he was involved in 88 one on one contests but only won 30 - which was down 8% on 2015. So not only was he a poor target up forward, even when he got himself into a good position he struggled. However, I believe this was due to two things. 1) Dixon needed time to adjust to being the primary target of a forward line 2) Dixon needed to get his fitness base up to cope with our gameplan.
Oh, and get Tredrea to work with him on his positioning, FFS.
I'm not worried in the slightest about Brad Ebert, since the very decline in output that he suffered in 2016 can be directly attributed to the loss of a decent ruck in Ryder. Expect his clearance and ball winning numbers to improve this season and to push into the above average category.
Sam Gray is more depth. He was number one for chain involvements, playing more in an outside role. However, with Powell-Pepper most likely coming into the side, you will probably find that guys like Ebert and Boak will fill these roles.
Poor Matthew White had a horrible season in terms of luck, but his contribution as a half forward/wing cannot be underestimated. If we aren't playing Monfries in the side as a forward target, playing White would be almost a necessity, since we score 64% of the time when he is the sole target inside 50.
Below Average - Darcy Byrne-Jones (-5%), Logan Austin (-8%), Matthew Lobbe (-17%), Tom Clurey (-25%), Angus Monfries (-25%)
And now we reach end game. For all the people who waxed lyrical about Darcy Byrne-Jones, consider this - he is a defensive Jake Neade for pressure acts, and that's it. Elite for pressure in defensive 50, but below average or average in all other key areas. That's not what you want from a player in line for a pivotal role in defence. Can he improve and make that spot his own? Sure. But a lay down lock in everyone's best 22? Only if you're seduced by actual output over expected output. Or it could be that the way Port Adelaide defends is going to make the statistics they measure irrelevant.
Logan Austin is a case in point. Elite in spoils, but poor or below average in every other metric...yet managed to keep Tom Lynch (GC), Jesse Hogan, Drew Petrie, Ty Vickery and Travis Cloke goalless. Don't be surprised if he does the old Hinkley special and starts back in the SANFL to work on his intercept marking.
If Matthew Lobbe comes anywhere near the side in 2017, you know one of two things. He's either had a massive reversal of form or we are tanking to improve the free agency compensation we'll get for losing Pittard and Trengove when they leave to find a club that actually has a clue. Below average to poor in every single metric you can measure for a ruck. Needs to play permanent forward in the SANFL in the Dixon role (with Marshall playing the Westhoff role) to force him to learn accountability and contested marking.
Lack of offensive firepower is what is holding Tom Clurey back. Great at stopping, but poor in every offensive metric. Now, this could be a similar situation to Logan Austin, and it's just that he is playing a dedicated role and letting guys like Pittard do the heavy lifting of attack, but if he doesn't learn to 'join in', as Hinkley says, and push up the ground instead of just worrying about his man and that's it, we're never going to get anywhere. But that comes from experience, so give him time.
It's no secret that I'm a fan of what Angus Monfries brings to the side, and whether he spends his time in the SANFL or the AFL he will bring that defensive forward pressure on the opposition's key playmaker while kicking a goal a game. If the year off has done him good, he'll be an asset to the AFL side. If it hasn't, he'll still be serviceable depth.
Poor - Jimmy Toumpas (-24%)
Remember how there was an outcry about Dimitri being dropped? Well, being below average in every single area except meters gained and kick rating might have had something to do with it. It's good that he's having a good pre-season, because he needs one. That being said...he still improved on his rating that he had at Melbourne, so maybe there's hope.
The Unknowns
Of the rest, Riley Bonner will be a star, Jesse Palmer needs to work on his consistency at SANFL level which is why he didn't get a call up sooner, Dougal Howard will probably end up a victim of the move away from big key forwards/defenders, Billy Frampton is steadily improving every year but still has a bit more improvement to go before he earns a call up and Aidyn Johnson just needs to get on the park and find the pill. I'd expect Bonner and Palmer to get games at some point this season.
The Draftees
If you want to know what we drafted Sam Powell-Pepper, it's this: He is elite in delivery, goals, intercept possessions and score assists. The fact that Champion Data didn't even have him in their top 25 isn't a slight on him as a player - it just showed the strength of the draft pool.
Todd Marshall went about as good as you can expect a forward who hadn't played a lot of footy to go - elite tackler, above average at hitting the scoreboard, contested marks and forward 50 ground-ball gets. He will be a better version of Westhoff - which is why we drafted him.
Joe Atley can play inside or a more balanced inside/outside role and his performance doesn't dip. In TAC Cup, 55% of his possessions were contested, whereas at the U18 Championships, it was only 40% - yet he still racked up 22 and 20 disposals per game in each competition.
But Willem Drew is the standout for what we are looking for. missionpossible rated him as the player Port Adelaide needed, and when you consider that he ranked elite in clearances, contested possessions, tackles and score involvements, and above average for disposals...it wouldn't surprise me if all three of Powell-Pepper, Atley and Drew get games ahead of the likes of Sam Gray, Jesse Palmer and Brendon Ah Chee.
The Rookies
Pretty much every rookie on our list is rated by Champion Data except Will Snelling, who wins the ball a lot but has poor kicking. The only one worth looking at is Brett Eddy for 2017 - whether he plays or not is entirely determined by the ability of our midfield to find a target other than Charlie Dixon. Which is why it's good that Dixon hasn't been involved in training because quite frankly...we are our own worst enemy when it comes to the forward line.
But that's for the next post.
