Hill Bros: Stephen Signed/Bradley wants out

[FreoMonocle]

My understanding is B Hill wants to head to Victoria (his GF is Victorian). Preferably Hawthorn but it's negotiable.

As for his brother this is his last contract. Money is a big factor.

Could all be smoke and mirrors though.

Money is a factor, but so is family and family is more importanter for this family than a lot of others. BHill would have have had his choice of clubs across the competition, chose to come back to family even though the club was rebuilding. Both boys get above average pay for footy, extra pocket money would be less of a pull for these 2.

As for the girlfriend factor. Well, that might change things - or not. If they both want to live in different places, one has to wear a heavy heart - who blinks, BHill or the girlfriend, no forgone conclusion as an outsider looking in and it could also be a case of an irreconcilable difference.

 

[Yeti]

My understanding is B Hill wants to head to Victoria (his GF is Victorian). Preferably Hawthorn but it's negotiable.

As for his brother this is his last contract. Money is a big factor.

Could all be smoke and mirrors though.

You haven't really answered the question though. B Hill to Hawthorn, sure.

But why Carlton? If he is determined to be back in Melbourne there are teams in a far better position than Carlton. Put yourself in his shoes, it makes no sense.

You can hope for it and want for it but there is zero substance to your post about him joining Carlton.

 

[armpit]

If we lose Brad, after Lachie don't think we are really challenging for any flag.
If we keep losing good players, we get no continuity

I think we need to all calm down here.

 

[maccamk]

If we lose both Hills the compo should cover Kelly without needing picks. Personally feel carlton could be a good option for them.

If we lose the Hills get Kelly and keep our picks I’m all in

Kelly
Pick 10ish
Henry

 

[maccamk]

Ppl forget Colyer comes straight in. Not the same class as brad but the loss in talent between Hill and Colyer is significantly oit weighed by the gain in talent from Kelly

 

[Midnite65]

Ppl forget Colyer comes straight in. Not the same class as brad but the loss in talent between Hill and Colyer is significantly oit weighed by the gain in talent from Kelly

We need to keep Brad Hill, one of the main changes to our game plan this year is having a fit Brad Hill and Langdon using speed and running ability to outrun their opponents, last year Brad had a pretty poor year with injuries and we suffered. Even this year one of our worst losses to Richmond was caused to a big extent by Hill and Langdon being shut down on the day.

 

[wild side]

Langdon is going, so to lose BHill as well would be heartbreaking

 

[jedi mind tricks]

Langdon is going, so to lose BHill as well would be heartbreaking

Is he?

 

[Malifice]

You haven't really answered the question though. B Hill to Hawthorn, sure.

But why Carlton? If he is determined to be back in Melbourne there are teams in a far better position than Carlton. Put yourself in his shoes, it makes no sense.

You can hope for it and want for it but there is zero substance to your post about him joining Carlton.

We're in a position to financially look after both brothers. We have one of the biggest holes in out salary cap going around. There is that for starters.

Secondly, we're on the way up next year and the years after. We've been stockpiling talented kids for 4 drafts now. Once they get to the 4 preseason 100 or so game mark were going to rapidly move back up the ladder.

Experienced free agents and trades will speed that up even more.

We're not starting a rebuild here. We're at the back end of one. With the right FA and trades at the end of the year (And the right coach) we should be able to rapidly improve next year like Brisbane have done.

The bulk of our best 22 is aged 18-22 (Weitering, Walsh, SPS, Curnow, Fisher, Dow, Marchbank, McKay, Setterfield, Cuningham, Stocker, Obrien, Silvagni, Kennedy). Cripps, Mcgovern and Plowman are 24.

Simpson, Thomas, Murphy and Kruezer (aged 30-35) push our average age up, but we're largely fielding a TAC cup squad most weeks. We're not losing because were shit; were losing because we're young. Those players have talent, they just can't match it with bigger bodies.

Our midfield rotations have been Cripps with SPS, Dow, Walsh, Fisher, and Setterfield (average age 20, average games also around 20). You'll see what I mean on the weekend. Its Cripps leading a TAC cup midfield. Shut him down and you win.

We have a huge lack of senior bodies in the vital 24-28 age bracket. We feel that with a few senior bodies in the side and another preseason into the likes of Walsh, Dow, SPS etc were capable of rocketing back up the ladder fast sooner rather than later and staying there for some time.

You might not agree, but a fair few players probably see it that way as well. As shit as we are at the moment, were not far away from turning a corner and being a force.

You'd rather go to a young side about to rise, than an old side about to fall.

And (again) we have a shit load of cap space. As shit as we have been we still play in front of big crowds at the G regularly. Once we turn that corner it'll be Richmond 2.0.

There are reasons to come to us.

Again, not saying it's a definite. I'm just hearing some smoke signals and jungle drums.

 

[Yeti]

We're in a position to financially look after both brothers. We have one of the biggest holes in out salary cap going around. There is that for starters.

Secondly, we're on the way up next year and the years after. We've been stockpiling talented kids for 4 drafts now. Once they get to the 4 preseason 100 or so game mark were going to rapidly move back up the ladder.

Experienced free agents and trades will speed that up even more.

We're not starting a rebuild here. We're at the back end of one. With the right FA and trades at the end of the year (And the right coach) we should be able to rapidly improve next year like Brisbane have done.

The bulk of our best 22 is aged 18-22 (Weitering, Walsh, SPS, Curnow, Fisher, Dow, Marchbank, McKay, Setterfield, Cuningham, Stocker, Obrien, Silvagni, Kennedy). Cripps, Mcgovern and Plowman are 24.

Simpson, Thomas, Murphy and Kruezer (aged 30-35) push our average age up, but we're largely fielding a TAC cup squad most weeks. We're not losing because were ****; were losing because we're young. Those players have talent, they just can't match it with bigger bodies.

Our midfield rotations have been Cripps with SPS, Dow, Walsh, Fisher, and Setterfield (average age 20, average games also around 20). You'll see what I mean on the weekend. Its Cripps leading a TAC cup midfield. Shut him down and you win.

We have a huge lack of senior bodies in the vital 24-28 age bracket. We feel that with a few senior bodies in the side and another preseason into the likes of Walsh, Dow, SPS etc were capable of rocketing back up the ladder fast sooner rather than later and staying there for some time.

You might not agree, but a fair few players probably see it that way as well. As **** as we are at the moment, were not far away from turning a corner and being a force.

You'd rather go to a young side about to rise, than an old side about to fall.

And (again) we have a **** load of cap space. As **** as we have been we still play in front of big crowds at the G regularly. Once we turn that corner it'll be Richmond 2.0.

There are reasons to come to us.

Again, not saying it's a definite. I'm just hearing some smoke signals and jungle drums.

Kudos to you. Well reasoned and written post.

Outside of Walsh and Cripps I'm personally not sold on the young mids you have like Dow and SPS but that may be not watching a heap of Carlton.

The Hills (at full fitness) make you a lot better but there is significant issues that I believe would prevent them coming to you. Especially at say, the 600k for S.Hill and 750k for B.Hill that may be needed to secure them.

They could get similar offers from one of the 9 other clubs un Melbourne and Hawthorn hold the biggest carrot, Clarkson. Even if their list is potentially about to nose dive due to KPF.

As for "about to turn the corner" media commentators have been saying that about Carlton since the mid 2000's.

If I was heading to Vic to play I would be very nervous about trusting Carltons front office provide good structures to allow for on field success.

You can have all the first round draft picks in the world (we all remember "The Chosen 1's" memorabilia") if they aren't well developed / coached then you go nowhere.

 

[Lach72]

I have no idea why we would even consider it with two years on his contract tbh.

Just tell him no unless someone walks in with a couple of first round picks. That’s not realistic so we’ll just keep him.

Although I’d have him in front of guys like Treloar and Shiel...

Stephen is worth keeping for two years on reduced coin. We have a lot of players out the door before him, so we try and get his body right and give from there.

If he wants three years on better money we shake his hand and move on...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Malifice]

Kudos to you. Well reasoned and written post.

Outside of Walsh and Cripps I'm personally not sold on the young mids you have like Dow and SPS but that may be not watching a heap of Carlton.

The Hills (at full fitness) make you a lot better but there is significant issues that I believe would prevent them coming to you. Especially at say, the 600k for S.Hill and 750k for B.Hill that may be needed to secure them.

They could get similar offers from one of the 9 other clubs un Melbourne and Hawthorn hold the biggest carrot, Clarkson. Even if their list is potentially about to nose dive due to KPF.

As for "about to turn the corner" media commentators have been saying that about Carlton since the mid 2000's.

If I was heading to Vic to play I would be very nervous about trusting Carltons front office provide good structures to allow for on field success.

You can have all the first round draft picks in the world (we all remember "The Chosen 1's" memorabilia") if they aren't well developed / coached then you go nowhere.

We did turn a corner when Judd came on board as a player but then we ****ed up 8 years of drafts in a row and let good players leave for nothing (Betts, Waite, Robinson, Garlett etc).

Accordingly we crashed and burnt in 2015 with the list in dire shape, and the decision was made to completely gut the list, raze the joint to the ground, trade out everything we had, and start again.

A 'total list reset' we called it.

50 players out the door in 3 or so years and 9 x 1st round picks in the door in the same period, plus several more players taken with 1sts from the expansion sides.

We've spent the last 3 and a half seasons assembling a completely new list. Most of our best 22 is aged 18-22.

SPS and Setterfield were taken a year ahead of Cerra and Brayshaw (who were both taken the same year as Dow and Obrien). Walsh and Stocker were taken the year after.

We expect too much of kids. In the first 3-4 years in the system the best you can hope for is glimpses and the occasional game in the bests.

Jump on footywire and look at GAJ, Danger, Watson, Dusty or whomevers first 3 or so years in the system. Its not until 3-4 preaseasons, around 100 games and 22-23 years of age that players become guns.

You'll see those players numbers jump from 15 or so touches a game to 26+. They then tend to have that standout season at 26-28 where they are playing their best and most consistent footy.

There is a huge difference between the body shape and conditioning of an 18-22 year old and that of a bloke in his mid 20s with years of an elite sports program behind him.

I've seen enough of Dow, Fisher, SPS etc to know that they're going to develop into fine AFL players. Ditto Cerra and Brayshaw (their draft peers for you blokes).

There are always freaks like Judd or Cripps who dominate from their 1st or 2nd season. Theyre the exception to the general rule though, and where we get it wrong is we expect every kid to dominate early.

I don't really want to turn this into a Carlton thread by the way. Just answering your Carlton related questions as asked

 

[Yeti]

We did turn a corner when Judd came on board as a player but then we ****** up 8 years of drafts in a row and let good players leave for nothing (Betts, Waite, Robinson, Garlett etc).

Accordingly we crashed and burnt in 2015 with the list in dire shape, and the decision was made to completely gut the list, raze the joint to the ground, trade out everything we had, and start again.

A 'total list reset' we called it.

50 players out the door in 3 or so years and 9 x 1st round picks in the door in the same period, plus several more players taken with 1sts from the expansion sides.

We've spent the last 3 and a half seasons assembling a completely new list. Most of our best 22 is aged 18-22.

SPS and Setterfield were taken a year ahead of Cerra and Brayshaw (who were both taken the same year as Dow and Obrien). Walsh and Stocker were taken the year after.

We expect too much of kids. In the first 3-4 years in the system the best you can hope for is glimpses and the occasional game in the bests.

Jump on footywire and look at GAJ, Danger, Watson, Dusty or whomevers first 3 or so years in the system. Its not until 3-4 preaseasons, around 100 games and 22-23 years of age that players become guns.

You'll see those players numbers jump from 15 or so touches a game to 26+. They then tend to have that standout season at 26-28 where they are playing their best and most consistent footy.

There is a huge difference between the body shape and conditioning of an 18-22 year old and that of a bloke in his mid 20s with years of an elite sports program behind him.

I've seen enough of Dow, Fisher, SPS etc to know that they're going to develop into fine AFL players. Ditto Cerra and Brayshaw (their draft peers for you blokes).

There are always freaks like Judd or Cripps who dominate from their 1st or 2nd season. Theyre the exception to the general rule though, and where we get it wrong is we expect every kid to dominate early.

I don't really want to turn this into a Carlton thread by the way. Just answering your Carlton related questions as asked

Good to see some passion but Carlton have been a basket case for as long as I can remember.

Do you smell what Carlton are cooking?

If they were on the right track they wouldn'thave just sacked their coach, again.

They would have put in place the right people from the start and backed them in. When did Carlton last employ a coach that they didn't sack? Was it the last 20 years?

Just being Carlton isn't good enough and it is further reason for B.Hill in his prime not to go there.

They very well COULD turn a corner now after the recent coaching cull, they could also appoint the next Mark Neeld. It's more likely than unlikely they appoint the wrong person going by recent history.

I get it though, Freo have been a basket case for most of our history, the club got ruthless in 2011 and have backed in their man, regardless of the external noise.

The CEO & board will live and die by the 2015 decision to back in Ross Lyon for 5 years. The Carlton board have shown they won't .

.......whichis why B.Hill would be making a monumental error going to the blues in this point in his career.

 

[longsuffreosupp]

I guess the question is what would Carlton give up for B Hill? If he really wants to go, we still hold the cards.

 

[Malifice]

Good to see some passion but Carlton have been a basket case for as long as I can remember.

Do you smell what Carlton are cooking?

If they were on the right track they wouldn't have just sacked their coach, again.

I like Bolton, but he wasnt right for us. Hardest working dude at the club, but his message was over complicated and full of waffle. It became apparent to me a few games before we sacked him that he had lost the players.

Young players need simple instructions IMO.

In any event, I dont think there is a correlation between sacking a coach and being on the right direction. Our direction hasnt changed, we just decided that he wasnt the bloke to steer the ship there.

You're entitled to your opinion that Carlton are shit at the moment due to lacking talent. Personally I say we're shit at the moment because we're reliant on too many kids, and lack senior bodies.

Time will tell I guess.

 

[Malifice]

I guess the question is what would Carlton give up for B Hill? If he really wants to go, we still hold the cards.

Our 2020 1st round pick to Geelong.

Kelly to Fremantle.

B Hill to Carlton (along with his brother as a F/A).

Plus some later pick swaps, but that would do it you'd think.

You lose Hill, and gain Kelly. Fair trade I would have thought? As good as Hill is, Kelly is better (no offence to Hill).

 

[Yeti]

I like Bolton, but he wasnt right for us. Hardest working dude at the club, but his message was over complicated and full of waffle. It became apparent to me a few games before we sacked him that he had lost the players.

Young players need simple instructions IMO.

In any event, I dont think there is a correlation between sacking a coach and being on the right direction. Our direction hasnt changed, we just decided that he wasnt the bloke to steer the ship there.

You're entitled to your opinion that Carlton are **** at the moment due to lacking talent. Personally I say we're **** at the moment because we're reliant on too many kids, and lack senior bodies.

Time will tell I guess.

I don't think Carlton are shit due to a lack of talent.

I think they are shit due to lack of governance, a board that thinks that they can still buy their way to on field success and a complete disregard for long term goals.

Silvagni's list management strategy has absolutely killed Bolton's chances. I hopeit pays off for their next coach.

 

[Malifice]

I think they are **** due to lack of governance, a board that thinks that they can still buy their way to on field success and a complete disregard for long term goals.

Strange that you make that point after 4 drafts in a row that we've been up to our eyeballs in.

It was certainly true once (Carlton and the Messiah complex go hand in hand), but not since our 2015 'line in the sand' total list reset. We've had a plan to do a '66 game rebuild' and hit the draft hard to build the list, and that's exactly what we've done.

We are now moving towards adding those gun players and F/A to that list of kids we brought in over the past few years like Brisbane did with Hodge, Neale etc.

The trick is of course, getting them to agree to come, and selling the vision. Unlike WA, Victoria is a crowded market, so it's hard to attract players to your club in that space unless you can sell them a clear vision.

 

[Joao]

I guess the question is what would Carlton give up for B Hill? If he really wants to go, we still hold the cards.

Adelaide's first plus change I'd say.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

Adelaide's first plus change I'd say.

As Lach72 said, I dont think we letting Hill go unless it is significant overs and I'd argue Adelaides first plus change is below value given the second they have is Adelaides as well.

I dont think we'd let Hill go for anything less than what Shiel went for, especially if we lose Langdon

 

[theGav56]

If we lose both Hills the compo should cover Kelly without needing picks. Personally feel carlton could be a good option for them.

If we lose the Hills get Kelly and keep our picks I’m all in

Kelly
Pick 10ish
Henry

Are you saying the FA compo for SHill, plus the pick traded for BHill for Kelly? Yowsers! I prefer BHill to Kelly anyway, or at least see them in a similar league.

 

[UYD 4 Life]

I'd have Brad over Kelly. There's more players like Kelly than like Brad. If Kelly and Stephen were the same age I'd have Stephen over Kelly too. If it were a choice between Kelly and both hills the hills win in a landslide

 

[theGav56]

You lose Hill, and gain Kelly. Fair trade I would have thought? As good as Hill is, Kelly is better (no offence to Hill).

I think that Fremantle may fancy themselves to keep BHill for the long term if they hold him to the contract. Another two years in Perth and the girlfriend issues may have resolved. He is in a similar place to Kelly last year in that he is at a club that sees itself headed towards finals, and he is a key figure in that. And while Kelly may be realistic compo, Fremantle could more in a position to work a trade involving Langon+ making us stronger.

 

[showemhowtorock]

We did turn a corner when Judd came on board as a player but then we ****** up 8 years of drafts in a row and let good players leave for nothing (Betts, Waite, Robinson, Garlett etc).

Accordingly we crashed and burnt in 2015 with the list in dire shape, and the decision was made to completely gut the list, raze the joint to the ground, trade out everything we had, and start again.

A 'total list reset' we called it.

50 players out the door in 3 or so years and 9 x 1st round picks in the door in the same period, plus several more players taken with 1sts from the expansion sides.

We've spent the last 3 and a half seasons assembling a completely new list. Most of our best 22 is aged 18-22.

Does this guy realise what he is trying to sell here is exactly what Freo have done successfully?
"crashed and burnt in 2015" - Freo crashed a year later but are now a competitive side again in after also "gutting the list and starting again"
"total list reset" - freo have turned over that many players too
"3-4 year rebuild" Freo have been rebuilding in this time too, and are now challenging for finals
"We've spent the last 3 and a half seasons assembling a completely new list" yep, freo too, and hows that going for them you ask? oh they're in finals contention! and wheres Carlton in the same time frame??? hmm
Carlton fans are brainwashed lmao

 

[Malifice]

I think that Fremantle may fancy themselves to keep BHill for the long term if they hold him to the contract. Another two years in Perth and the girlfriend issues may have resolved. He is in a similar place to Kelly last year in that he is at a club that sees itself headed towards finals, and he is a key figure in that. And while Kelly may be realistic compo, Fremantle could more in a position to work a trade involving Langon+ making us stronger.

Cool man. To be honest, the Hills didnt even pop up on my radar, it's just our ITK poster (he's 99.9 percent on the money on hundreds of things and is literally the only bloke I trust on our site) brought up Stephen Hill as a F/A as someone we're looking at, and also cryptically mentioned 'two WA lads' may be coming at the end of the year.

He pulled every GWS trade (with names) months out from the draft, knows team selection before its released, knew Bolton was gone a few days before it was called etc. He has an impeccable strike rate. Clearly connected.

I cant see why we would be anywhere near Stephen TBH (no offence, but he's nearly 30 and is already getting soft tissue injuries). The only way it makes sense is if its the two brothers. Brad we could definitely use, and he's in the right age bracket (we're keen on 25-26 year olds).

It was widely reported that Brad was looking to get back to Melbourne last year. It would make sense for SOS to contact his manager, offer to look after his brother with a large money F/A offer as a bit of a retirement slush fund (plus a big money offer for Brad of course) if he agreed to come to us.

We have the money and the trade hand to get a deal done (and it would enable you guys to pick up Kelly when he departs the Cats at the end of the year). SOS and obviously Lloyd have contacts at Fremantle.

Like I said though, the brothers werent even on my radar till today. Just passing on what I heard.