Preview Hot pies vs winged Swans

[Wheresbuddy]

I've been one to advocate for talls in recent drafts, but... Francis has been on the list for 5mins and Maibaum was injured all the time.

And judging by the way he's been managing our back up tall defenders, he will only be getting 5 minutes.

Horse is not giving them a chance.

 

[Matt_352]

What are the chances McAndrew plays you rkn? Got Dunkley VC and McAndrew is my only possible loop option.

 

[Tedeski]

I look at the pies forward line and think. Why go tall?

This game will be won in the middle and on turnovers.

Because our main tall defender is Tom McCartin who isn't a defender & gets monstered by key forwards.
Cox will tear our defence apart.
He'll get a stack of frees in front of his crowd for arm chopping. That's the only way McCartin will be able to try & stop him.
The other would be if there's pressure up the ground so it drops short & he can intercept, but I predict the former.

This will be a 60 - 80 point plus loss. (40-60 if wet) We haven't the capacity to defend a score of 106 against GWS at home, then there is no way we can score more than 70 & keep the Pies under 130. We have gone from the number 1 stoppage team in our defensive 50 in 2022 to the 18th stoppage team from the Grand Final to now.
We have become comfortable with tossing it in & not fighting it out when it gets too hard. We cough up consecutive unanswered goals week in week out.
Going back to an undermanned, Richmond they had 7. Their brain fades let us get back on top.
The Pies will kick consecutive goals against us regularly, with their fitness base way too superior for us in the last.
the last quarter alone we will lose by 6 goals.
I base all this on what the Swans & Pies have laid out in front of us to observe.

The alarm bells for me came at the post game presser where Horse spoke about how good we were at most things.
That is a clear message of confidence for the players rather than any negativity because our boys are mentally shot & Horse knows it.
I don't expect it to change this week & I expect Fremantle to find good form against us next week with Fyfe back, to continue our downward slide at our "fortress" SCG.

Sorry to sound so negative myself but the writing has been on the wall for a while. We have no depth. We don't have natural defenders & the best teams with the best coaches can exploit this easily.
McInerney back in without finding form is as dangerous as team selection/integrity gets.
Buddy will get most of our entries as per usual & it will come right back out most of the time.

Hope I'm wrong.............................bet I'm not!

 

[ShireSwan]

What are the chances McAndrew plays you rkn? Got Dunkley VC and McAndrew is my only possible loop option.

21.8%
Might match up on Cox given we are short AF everywhere on the ground and he could maybe follow him when he is in the forward line.
But it would be a debut, in the wet, for a stringbean ruck - with Horse coaching, so unlikely unless Ladhams is out.

 

[ShireSwan]

Because our main tall defender is Tom McCartin who isn't a defender & gets monstered by key forwards.
Cox will tear our defence apart.
He'll get a stack of frees in front of his crowd for arm chopping. That's the only way McCartin will be able to try & stop him.
The other would be if there's pressure up the ground so it drops short & he can intercept, but I predict the former.

This will be a 60 - 80 point plus loss. (40-60 if wet) We haven't the capacity to defend a score of 106 against GWS at home, then there is no way we can score more than 70 & keep the Pies under 130. We have gone from the number 1 stoppage team in our defensive 50 in 2022 to the 18th stoppage team from the Grand Final to now.
We have become comfortable with tossing it in & not fighting it out when it gets too hard. We cough up consecutive unanswered goals week in week out.
Going back to an undermanned, Richmond they had 7. Their brain fades let us get back on top.
The Pies will kick consecutive goals against us regularly, with their fitness base way too superior for us in the last.
the last quarter alone we will lose by 6 goals.
I base all this on what the Swans & Pies have laid out in front of us to observe.

The alarm bells for me came at the post game presser where Horse spoke about how good we were at most things.
That is a clear message of confidence for the players rather than any negativity because our boys are mentally shot & Horse knows it.
I don't expect it to change this week & I expect Fremantle to find good form against us next week with Fyfe back, to continue our downward slide at our "fortress" SCG.

Sorry to sound so negative myself but the writing has been on the wall for a while. We have no depth. We don't have natural defenders & the best teams with the best coaches can exploit this easily.
McInerney back in without finding form is as dangerous as team selection/integrity gets.
Buddy will get most of our entries as per usual & it will come right back out most of the time.

Hope I'm wrong.............................bet I'm not!

If they are running free out of the midfield, then Cox in the forward line is a real danger. Rain might help us some there.
When the trainner guy oils Heeney & Buddy's shoulders up I suggest he does their hands too. It's not like Buddy is going to mark a bloody thing anyways, and having the footy as a bar of wet soap will nullify Cox completely.

 

[Punts]

Because our main tall defender is Tom McCartin who isn't a defender & gets monstered by key forwards.
Cox will tear our defence apart.
He'll get a stack of frees in front of his crowd for arm chopping. That's the only way McCartin will be able to try & stop him.
The other would be if there's pressure up the ground so it drops short & he can intercept, but I predict the former.

This will be a 60 - 80 point plus loss. (40-60 if wet) We haven't the capacity to defend a score of 106 against GWS at home, then there is no way we can score more than 70 & keep the Pies under 130. We have gone from the number 1 stoppage team in our defensive 50 in 2022 to the 18th stoppage team from the Grand Final to now.
We have become comfortable with tossing it in & not fighting it out when it gets too hard. We cough up consecutive unanswered goals week in week out.
Going back to an undermanned, Richmond they had 7. Their brain fades let us get back on top.
The Pies will kick consecutive goals against us regularly, with their fitness base way too superior for us in the last.
the last quarter alone we will lose by 6 goals.
I base all this on what the Swans & Pies have laid out in front of us to observe.

The alarm bells for me came at the post game presser where Horse spoke about how good we were at most things.
That is a clear message of confidence for the players rather than any negativity because our boys are mentally shot & Horse knows it.
I don't expect it to change this week & I expect Fremantle to find good form against us next week with Fyfe back, to continue our downward slide at our "fortress" SCG.

Sorry to sound so negative myself but the writing has been on the wall for a while. We have no depth. We don't have natural defenders & the best teams with the best coaches can exploit this easily.
McInerney back in without finding form is as dangerous as team selection/integrity gets.
Buddy will get most of our entries as per usual & it will come right back out most of the time.

Hope I'm wrong.............................bet I'm not!

Mccartin is a defender

Might get monstered at time but a defender he is

 

[ShireSwan]

If this is going to be a slippery ball then getting in Sheather's strength around the contest isn't a bad call at all IMO. If too many of our tackles have been bouncing off or ineffective, he presents as a useful solution to that. Smash in, win the ball, but if not make them pay a physical price for winning it.
Can also play pretty much anywhere, no?

Good selection looking at the alternatives IMO.

 

[TheMase]

Because our main tall defender is Tom McCartin who isn't a defender & gets monstered by key forwards.

his % 1 on 1 lost is 18.2%

May is 31.8
Barrass 25.8
Weitering 15.6
Moore 14.3
Rampe 20
Balta 40

Ahead of all the above except Barrass in average 1v1 contests per match.

He absolutely is a defender… odd take

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Because maybe they thought Sheldrick would be comfortable in the position, if not a star? He played it round 1 last year on debut and had a decent showing. He tackles hard and is a dogged chaser, attributes that should lend themselves to, at the very least, being damaging as a forward pressure player. Maybe the plan was to slowly integrate Sheldrick into the midfield, gradually increasing his midfield minutes with each week that he grew more comfortable, but they abandoned it once they realised he wasn't physically ready?

I honestly have no idea how this “isn’t physically ready” theory came about.

And I cannot believe Horse suddenly decided midway through a game that “nah, he’s not physically ready, I won’t give him a run on the ball”.

Sheldrick has been single-handedly carrying the VFL midfield against AFL listed players all season. He’s been tagged by 25 year old hardened players and succeeded.

I think, instead, he got lost in the forward pocket last week & didn’t quite know when to crack-in and when to hold space. The art of being a small forward is lost on him.

Physicality isn’t the problem (although he is only 19 and years off being fully hardened). But If you think it he’s not strong, I’d suggest watching the VFL today.

 

[Tedeski]

Mccartin is a defender

Might get monstered at time but a defender he is

Not a natural defender though. I watched Payne & Andrews last night.
No where near them. Good interceptor when confidence is high & has assistance, Ramps & his brother for example.
Not a one on one defender that can win many battles.
I won't say anymore on our ability to defend until after the game.
Then we'll have something to discuss because it will happen again.

 

[Punts]

Not a natural defender though. I watched Payne & Andrews last night.
No where near them. Good interceptor when confidence is high & has assistance, Ramps & his brother for example.
Not a one on one defender that can win many battles.
I won't say anymore on our ability to defend until after the game.
Then we'll have something to discuss because it will happen again.

I agree about defending across the ground

Will get a touch up tomorrow

 

[TheMase]

Not a natural defender though. I watched Payne & Andrews last night.
No where near them. Good interceptor when confidence is high & has assistance, Ramps & his brother for example.
Not a one on one defender that can win many battles.
I won't say anymore on our ability to defend until after the game.
Then we'll have something to discuss because it will happen again.

Saw a stat for first 3 rounds where Tom had been in 14 one on one contests and had lost ONE.

Andrews is at 25% one on one contests lost. Payne is 14.3%, so not much lower… but only averages 2.6 such contests to McCartins 4.4…

McCartin has always looked a natural defender to my eyes, and the stats backup the he performs well in one on one contests.

 

[Tedeski]

his % 1 on 1 lost is 18.2%

May is 31.8
Barrass 25.8
Weitering 15.6
Moore 14.3
Rampe 20
Balta 40

Ahead of all the above except Barrass in average 1v1 contests per match.

He absolutely is a defender… odd take

I should have added, against the best forwards.

 

[TheMase]

I should have added, against the best forwards.

He takes the best key forward every week though…

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Saw a stat for first 3 rounds where Tom had been in 14 one on one contests and had lost ONE.

Andrews is at 25% one on one contests lost. Payne is 14.3%, so not much lower… but only averages 2.6 such contests to McCartins 4.4…

McCartin has always looked a natural defender to my eyes, and the stats backup the he performs well in one on one contests.

TheMase, you have to remember - none of our players are any good, they’re all fatally flawed and should be de-listed immediately.

It’s the Bigfooty rules.

 

[Tedeski]

Saw a stat for first 3 rounds where Tom had been in 14 one on one contests and had lost ONE.

Andrews is at 25% one on one contests lost. Payne is 14.3%, so not much lower… but only averages 2.6 such contests to McCartins 4.4…

McCartin has always looked a natural defender to my eyes, and the stats backup the he performs well in one on one contests.

I don't see it on game day but I guess they are the stats Masey. They include the first two games against a pathetic Gold Coast & Hawks. He should have a picnic tomorrow against the American then I guess.

 

[TheMase]

I don't see it on game day but I guess they are the stats Masey. They include the first two games against a pathetic Gold Coast & Hawks. He should have a picnic tomorrow against the American then I guess.

Look we could use a bigger defender for the “monsters” no doubt, but Tom is the least of our problems.

 

[caesar88]

I honestly have no idea how this “isn’t physically ready” theory came about.

And I cannot believe Horse suddenly decided midway through a game that “nah, he’s not physically ready, I won’t give him a run on the ball”.

Sheldrick has been single-handedly carrying the VFL midfield against AFL listed players all season. He’s been tagged by 25 year old hardened players and succeeded.

I think, instead, he got lost in the forward pocket last week & didn’t quite know when to crack-in and when to hold space. The art of being a small forward is lost on him.

Physicality isn’t the problem (although he is only 19 and years off being fully hardened). But If you think it he’s not strong, I’d suggest watching the VFL today.

I didn't say he's not strong. Being strong and being strong enough for an AFL midfield are two very different things. In the times when he needed to lay tackles, he didn't latch onto them, and when he had the ball in a tackle he just got ragdolled to the ground. There's nothing wrong with this, it happens to Hayward, Clarke etc all the time. So it's not like Sheldrick stuck out like a sore thumb in this regard. But they aren't in our midfield either...

 

[caesar88]

Sorry C88 If Rowy is among the first picked them Horse is off his oats. He is a minimal possession mid with poor ball use. He is a good block and tackler and that seems his ceiling which he has seemingly reached as a B grader. You talking him up does not help his case at all.

Unsurprising that you don't understand the concept of roles.

Rowbottom's performance in his career to date speaks for itself. He has shown potential far beyond your selective B-grader rating. Youngest mid we'd had in nearly a decade in 2019. Elite as a teenager in 2020. Steered us to a grand final in 2022.

He's being used in a different capacity right now. Maybe take that into account instead of persistently laying your boot into the kid.

 

[Kapers]

I should have added, against the best forwards.

I think you're confusing McCartin's lack of ability with the swans inability to guard the stopage.

McCartin has been a wall, hasn't been helped much by the rest of the side imo.

 

[Kapers]

I've come around to a differen't opinion in this game,

we HAVE to win, if we lose it's season over. The mental damage of losing to Geelong, GWS, and Collingwood will shatter our confidence for the rest of the season imo.

 

[caesar88]

Some Sheldrick fans might be happy tomorrow...

 

[zyzzbruh]

Because maybe they thought Sheldrick would be comfortable in the position, if not a star? He played it round 1 last year on debut and had a decent showing. He tackles hard and is a dogged chaser, attributes that should lend themselves to, at the very least, being damaging as a forward pressure player. Maybe the plan was to slowly integrate Sheldrick into the midfield, gradually increasing his midfield minutes with each week that he grew more comfortable, but they abandoned it once they realised he wasn't physically ready?

The jump from vfl footy to AFL isn't as ginormous as you think. People think there is a massive gulf between the two, it's not that deep. If Sheldrick was racking up 35 in the twos he would've been more than capable of racking up 15-20 as an AFL mid on slightly restricted minutes. Instead it was a wasted opportunity in which he had 0 exposure or experience in his position. We're the only team that does it. Every other team in the comp plays their young mids, wingers and high half forwards up the ground, so I'm not buying the bs excuses.

 

[caesar88]

The jump from vfl footy to AFL isn't as ginormous as you think. People think there is a massive gulf between the two, it's not that deep. If Sheldrick was racking up 35 in the twos he would've been more than capable of racking up 15-20 as an AFL mid on slightly restricted minutes. Instead it was a wasted opportunity in which he had 0 exposure or experience in his position. We're the only team that does it. Every other team in the comp plays their young mids, wingers and high half forwards up the ground, so I'm not buying the bs excuses.

Nick Daicos. Harry Sheezel.

 

[The King!]

TheMase, you have to remember - none of our players are any good, they’re all fatally flawed and should be de-listed immediately.

It’s the Bigfooty rules.

I think it's actually the people who bang on about their age, not being ready, don't expect much, actually rate the list lower than people like Punts and others who expect more from them