Hottest 100 of 2014 prediction thread

[thewitness]

I'm looking forward to seeing how your actual prediction (as opposed to your vote count) stacks up to the final 100, thewitness. Because there's quite a few songs on that @socialhottest that look quite a bit out of place, and you can't really extrapolate precise conclusions especially for the lower placed songs when only counting maybe 2% of the voting pool. Griswolds fans and Smithies fans are ravenous, they're like pod people who want everyone to listen to their favourite band so surely that is an overestimation? On the flipside, the Hoods should get more votes from the passive music fans who are just like "oh, yeah, I kinda like music, and I know that song by that thing that happened."

also kBuck, I don't really get the love for those particular songs either.

I agree especially on Smith Street Band votes being over represented by social media counts.
This is my actual prediction for the Hottest 100. Using my vote count, then factoring in previous additions positive or negative biases plus some of my own personal opinion about other things that I think influence the final results.

Final Tip Song (Vote Count Position)
1 Peking Duk - High {Ft. Nicole Millar} (1)
2 Chet Faker - Talk Is Cheap (2)
3 Hilltop Hoods - Cosby Sweater (7)
4 Milky Chance - Stolen Dance (4)
5 Peking Duk - Take Me Over {Ft. SAFIA} (5)
6 Kite String Tangle, The - Arcadia (9)
7 ZHU - Faded (8)
8 Glass Animals - Gooey (11)
9 Chet Faker - 1998 (3)
10 Asgeir - King And Cross (10)
11 alt-J - Every Other Freckle (12)
12 Illy - Tightrope {Ft. Scarlett Stevens} (17)
13 Griswolds, The - Beware The Dog (6)
14 Mark Ronson - Uptown Funk {Ft. Bruno Mars} (15)
15 Sticky Fingers - Gold Snafu (13)
16 Sia - Chandelier (36)
17 Vance Joy - Mess Is Mine (23)
18 Ball Park Music - She Only Loves Me When I'm There (18)
19 Thundamentals - Something I Said {Ft. Thom Crawford} (20)
20 Alison Wonderland - I Want U (16)
21 Flight Facilities - Two Bodies {Ft. Emma Louise} (22)
22 Amity Affliction, The - Pittsburgh (19)
23 Chet Faker - Gold (14)
24 alt-J - Left Hand Free (27)
25 Meg Mac - Roll Up Your Sleeves (24)
26 Bluejuice - I'll Go Crazy (31)
27 Future Islands - Seasons (Waiting On You) (21)
28 Jamie T - Zombie (33)
29 Lorde - Yellow Flicker Beat (32)
30 Banks - Beggin For Thread (25)
31 FKA twigs - Two Weeks (26)
32 Carmada - Maybe (29)
33 SBTRKT - NEW DORP. NEW YORK {Ft. Ezra Koenig} (28)
34 San Cisco - RUN (39)
35 alt-J - Hunger Of The Pine (41)
36 Chet Faker - (Lover) You Don't Treat Me No Good {Like A Version 2014} (30)
37 clipping. - Work Work {Ft. Cocc Pistol Cree} (34)
38 DMA's - Delete (37)
39 Broods - Mother & Father (45)
40 Lana Del Rey - West Coast (42)
41 Kim Churchill - Window To The Sky (40)
42 War On Drugs, The - Red Eyes (43)
43 Hilltop Hoods - Won't Let You Down {Ft. Maverick Sabre} (77)
44 Run The Jewels - Close Your Eyes (And Count To ****) {Ft. Zack De La Rocha} (46)
45 DZ Deathrays - Gina Works At Hearts (47)
46 Flight Facilities - Sunshine {Ft. Reggie Watts} (67)
47 Preatures, The - Somebody's Talking (35)
48 Hopium - Dreamers {Ft. Phoebe Lou} (52)
49 Lorde - Tennis Court (Flume Remix) (63)
50 Bring Me The Horizon - Drown (58)
51 Ball Park Music - Everything Is Shit Except My Friendship With You (68)
52 RL Grime & What So Not - Tell Me (54)
53 One Day - Love Me Less (55)
54 Childish Gambino - Sweatpants (44)
55 Thundamentals - Got Love {Ft. Solo} (70)
56 Duke Dumont - I Got U {Ft. Jax Jones} (60)
57 Childish Gambino - Sober (48)
58 Kingswood - I Can Feel That You Don't Love Me (69)
59 British India - Wrong Direction (74)
60 Kendrick Lamar - i (57)
61 Sticky Fingers - Just For You (61)
62 Highasakite - Since Last Wednesday (62)
63 Andy Bull - Talk Too Much (72)
64 Modern Baseball - Your Graduation (64)
65 Vance Joy - First Time (88)
66 Milky Chance - Flashed Junk Mind (66)
67 Courtney Barnett - Pickles From The Jar (50)
68 Bombay Bicycle Club - Luna (78)
69 SAFIA - Paranoia, Ghosts & Other Sounds (65)
70 Jungle - Busy Earnin' (71)
71 Golden Features - Tell Me {Ft. Nicole Millar} (75)
72 Catfish And The Bottlemen - Cocoon (76)
73 Allday - Right Now (56)
74 Chvrches - Do I Wanna Know? {Like A Version 2014} (51)
75 Rise Against - I Don't Want To Be Here Anymore (79)
76 Kingswood - Micro Wars (87)
77 First Aid Kit - My Silver Lining (84)
78 Allday - You Always Know The DJ (59)
79 Tkay Maidza - Switch Lanes {Prod. Paces} (83)
80 Royal Blood - Little Monster (80)
81 Thundamentals - Quit Your Job (96)
82 Avener, The - Fade Out Lines (81)
83 Hilltop Hoods - Walking Under Stars (143)
84 Cold War Kids - All This Could Be Yours (98)
85 #1 Dads - So Soldier {Ft. Ainslie Wills} (82)
86 Sticky Fingers - Liquorlip Loaded Gun (85)
87 Smith Street Band, The - Surrender (38)
88 Ball Park Music - Trippin' The Light Fantastic (113)
89 Jamie T - Rabbit Hole (107)
90 Jack White - Lazaretto (73)
91 Meg Mac - Bridges {Like A Version 2014} (104)
92 Ball Park Music - Cocaine Lion (116)
93 Cold War Kids - First (106)
94 Rustie - Attak {Ft. Danny Brown} (86)
95 TV On The Radio - Happy Idiot (49)
96 Royal Blood - Figure It Out (90)
97 Meg Mac - Grandma's Hands (99)
98 George Maple - Talk Talk (89)
99 Thelma Plum - How Much Does Your Love Cost? (105)
100 Angus & Julia Stone - Heart Beats Slow (151)

 

[Rough_Edges]

Maybe 2 or so of them make the 100.

 

[PHX]

Ok here is my close enough to final vote count. From 18,000 votes. I'll now move on to making my own prediction based on previous observed bias' and personal opinions.
Pos Song
1 Peking Duk - High {Ft. Nicole Millar}
2 Chet Faker - Talk Is Cheap
3 Chet Faker - 1998
4 Milky Chance - Stolen Dance
5 Peking Duk - Take Me Over {Ft. SAFIA}
6 ZHU - Faded
7 Griswolds, The - Beware The Dog
8 Kite String Tangle, The - Arcadia
9 Hilltop Hoods - Cosby Sweater
10 Asgeir - King And Cross
11 Glass Animals - Gooey
12 alt-J - Every Other Freckle
13 Sticky Fingers - Gold Snafu
14 Chet Faker - Gold
15 Mark Ronson - Uptown Funk {Ft. Bruno Mars}
16 Alison Wonderland - I Want U
17 Ball Park Music - She Only Loves Me When I'm There
18 Illy - Tightrope {Ft. Scarlett Stevens}
19 Amity Affliction, The - Pittsburgh
20 Thundamentals - Something I Said {Ft. Thom Crawford}
21 Future Islands - Seasons (Waiting On You)
22 Banks - Beggin For Thread
23 Vance Joy - Mess Is Mine
24 alt-J - Left Hand Free
25 Carmada - Maybe
26 SBTRKT - NEW DORP. NEW YORK {Ft. Ezra Koenig}
27 Chet Faker - (Lover) You Don't Treat Me No Good {Like A Version 2014}
28 Meg Mac - Roll Up Your Sleeves
29 FKA twigs - Two Weeks
30 Bluejuice - I'll Go Crazy
31 Flight Facilities - Two Bodies {Ft. Emma Louise}
32 Lorde - Yellow Flicker Beat
33 Jamie T - Zombie
34 Smith Street Band, The - Surrender
35 DMA's - Delete
36 clipping. - Work Work {Ft. Cocc Pistol Cree}
37 War On Drugs, The - Red Eyes
38 Preatures, The - Somebody's Talking
39 San Cisco - RUN
. . . .

I expect Tightrope, Cosby Sweater and Yellow Flicker Beat and Uptown Funk to push up through the casual voters not captured by this.

And Arcadia, King and Cross and Beware the Dog to take a hit and ease out.

I've also never heard of Peking Duck, though I hadn't heard Thrift Shop until it got number 1 either. Not sure how I miss these things considering my taste in music isn't at all obscure.

And I'm disappointed a Gaslight Anthem song can't even crack the 200.





Too late for thewitness but my votes were:

Run The Jewels - Close Your Eyes (And Count To ****) {Ft. Zack De La Rocha}
Rise Against - The Great Die-Off
Kendrick Lamar - i
Gaslight Anthem, The - Rollin' And Tumblin'
Foster The People - Coming Of Age
Dan Sultan - The Same Man
Cold War Kids - First
Angus & Julia Stone - Wherever You Are
alt-J - Left Hand Free
A$AP Mob - Trillmatic {Ft. A$AP Nast/Method Man}

 

[BluesMan]

Yeah pretty confident they didnt play the 200-101 the day before last year. Either the day after or weekend after.

Chet-haters gunna hate

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Please tell me I'm not the only one in my late 20's that doesn't understand the hype for these two song at all.

I can understand people not liking 1998 - but Talk is Cheap is an amazing song

 

[BluesMan]

Not a big fan of Take Me Over by peking duk, but very much like High.

 

[Upgrayedd]

Tightrope by illy is a horrific song

How did monument by royskopp go?

 

[BluesMan]

Tightrope by illy is a horrific song

How did monument by royskopp go?

Agreed, and I like Illy a lot. The rest of the album and his older stuff is good, but tightrope is the worst song he's released. The raps are terrible.

 

[thewitness]

Tightrope by illy is a horrific song

How did monument by royskopp go?

I had it finish #102 by my count, but Royksopp have a habit of looking like finishing higher than they normally do.

 

[PHX]

Tightrope by illy is a horrific song

Horrific or not, it's classic radio fodder.

Rapper - Check
Female chorus vocalist - Check
Repetitive chorus to drill into your head - Check
Inoffensive dance-lite pop beat - Check


A perfected formula to appeal to the masses.

 

[Skip_25]

I'm a big Chet fan and i'll win a bit of coin if he get's up. But i've gotta admit, it would be pretty anti-climatic if it got to number 1 and a slow song like talk is cheap won. I'd almost prefer something something like Take me Over or Uptown Funk to get everyone up and about.

 

[YesOnProp19]

I'd almost prefer something something like Take me Over or Uptown Funk to get everyone up and about.

High will definitely get everyone up and about.

 

[GroggSquad]

I'm a big Chet fan and i'll win a bit of coin if he get's up. But i've gotta admit, it would be pretty anti-climatic if it got to number 1 and a slow song like talk is cheap won. I'd almost prefer something something like Take me Over or Uptown Funk to get everyone up and about.

Talk Is Cheap would be the best number 1 since No One Knows in 2002 IMO.

(Says more about the quality of JJJ number 1's)

 

[BluesMan]

"You probably know that there was a push to get a Taylor Swift song in [the hottest 100], which has now been disqualified because a fast food chain became involved in the whole process" - Angela Catterns.

She's a former triple j presenter who said this on an ABC tv show "The Drum" on monday. But, I don't know if she has any existing job with triple J

 

[Robbo92]

Talk Is Cheap would be the best number 1 since No One Knows in 2002 IMO.

(Says more about the quality of JJJ number 1's)

Knights of Cydonia

 

[Harper712]

Gotta say il just be a smidge disappointed if Taylor swift doesn't get in.
Not really much of a fan and agree it's not reaaally suited to the jjj genres, but I would have enjoyed the drama of it all/shaking it off with the radio cranked

 

[Upgrayedd]

I had it finish #102 by my count, but Royksopp have a habit of looking like finishing higher than they normally do.

See. This is why democracy doesnt work...

 

[sixoneeight]

The same segment from The Drum also mentioned that 40 artists from this years countdown are Australian and that roughly 1.5 million votes were counted (as opposed to 44 tracks from 1.4m million votes last year)

 

[GroggSquad]

Knights of Cydonia

Yep and most would agree that Knights of Cydonia was the last 'credible' number 1, however I've never been a fan of anything Muse has done personally.

 

[LukasTheGreat]

Talk is cheap puts me to sleep. Monotonous and never reaches any great heights. I don't think I like High but that's probably because of how much it got played, Take me over is good.

 

[ManWithNoName]

So basically they just want people listening on the day. Surprise surprise.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I read an article that said it was definitely banned after KFC got involved offering you a 19.89 voucher (her album 1989) if you vote and tagged them or some crap

So because of the whole benefitting from a media campaign or competition clause it has apparently been banned

 

[ManWithNoName]

I read an article that said it was definitely banned after KFC got involved offering you a 19.89 voucher (her album 1989) if you vote and tagged them or some crap

So because of the whole benefitting from a media campaign or competition clause it has apparently been banned

Nah the KFC thing was "Tell us your favourite Taylor Swift song and win a voucher".

They were using the publicity from the campaign to promote themselves. KFC weren't saying "Vote and we'll give you stuff". So under the rules, it shouldn't be DQ'd. But this is turning into the Twilight Zone so who knows.

 

[ManWithNoName]

I read an article that said it was definitely banned after KFC got involved offering you a 19.89 voucher (her album 1989) if you vote and tagged them or some crap

So because of the whole benefitting from a media campaign or competition clause it has apparently been banned

They're not incentivising fans to vote for her.

 

[Gibbsy]

They're not incentivising fans to vote for her.

Perhaps not, but they're a major business drawing attention to the campaign. Too much grey area in all this really. I just want it to be over.