Preview How do you see the Cats 2024 Finals going?

[Mr Meow]

I'll amend to "relatively quickly"

"Straight sets" uses less letters and is more clear.

 

[moond0g]

I think of all the years in recent history, this year is the one you would give a relatively higher chance of a team pinching the flag from outside the top 2. Sydney are beatable, and then a "home" prelim against an interstate side gives us a decent chance of progressing to the GF.

But I think perhaps we just focus on this week to start with. We are rightly heavy, heavy favourites to win on Saturday. But if we manage to implode like we did on the weekend, there won't be a qualifying final to debate.

 

[kickazz]

It's so hard to say, all of my 'rules' for how teams go in finals seem to be irrelevant these days - and let's face it, there are NO teams in the top 8 that scream "dominant premiership chance".

Our midfield is still suspect, and this can be amplified in finals.

Many of our better performed players lack finals experience - Humphries, Dempsey, Mannagh. It will be really interesting to see how they go. I'm not overly optimistic but would love to see some good signs.


SDK/Stanley/Blicavs - these guys were so much better in 2022 and we need more from them if we are to be truly competitive.

Our delivery into F50 has been poor at times this year, a it was for a decade in pressure finals. We need that third tall (Henry/Rohan) to play a crucial part in competing, scoring 1 or 2 goals, taking a defender away from other contests, and defending.


Recent form has shown glimpses - I wonder if the older guys are saving a bit for finals, or are they somewhat done?

My tip - I think it might be straight sets, we just haven't been that impressive of late, given our opposition. But I do look forward to seeing how we go and if they can play with some real belief.

 

[Johanpetro]

Lose in Away prelim to GWS for me.

 

[lionbear]

Young group, win on Saturday and they are guaranteed 2 finals, I am happy with that as long as we continue to grow the list and work towards our next flag.

But with all the upsets this year, there is no reason we cant go all the way.

If we dont win the flag, as long as the players learn how much it hurts and it drives them harder next year.

 

[UnitedWarrior93]

**** it, Flag!!

 

[catempire]

I agree that the rest will help us significantly this year.

But one thing I have learnt over the years is to not read too much into the week 1 result and the impact on week 2.

Nearly every year, pundits fall in love with the teams that win in week 1 from the bottom half of the finals and predict straight sets exits for the teams that lost in week 1 in the upper half of the bracket. But it rarely plays out that way. The higher ranked loser has a very good record in week 2.

The amnesia about this each year is amazing. It used to be a water tight certainty that top 4 losers won in week 2. It has been diluted in recent years a little.

 

[Jimmy Yamazaki]

I don't see the midfield and ruck standing up for 3 finals games. It literally just got smashed by a Saints midfield that I consider one of the worst in the comp (Marshall aside).

The only small chance I gave us was to secure top 2 and play at the MCG week 1. But I don't see us getting it done of the road.

I have us losing week 1, winning week 2 and getting smashed week 3 in the Prelim similar to 2021.

 

[Mr Meow]

The amnesia about this each year is amazing. It used to be a water tight certainty that top 4 losers won in week 2. It has been diluted in recent years a little.

Yeah it used to be a silly media hype thing without basis. Then something happened.

Pre finals bye gets introduced:

2016: Hawthorn straight sets
2017: Top 4 all play prelims
2018: Hawthorn straight sets
2019: Brisbane straight sets
2020: Top 4 all play prelims
2021: Brisbane straight sets
2022: Melbourne straight sets
2023: Melbourne and Port straight sets

So almost one side per year on average does have the embarrassing exit since the pre finals bye came about. It could be completely random and we go 10 years without a straight sets team. Or it could have shifted the landscape a bit.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

I'm thinking straight sets because the stats show that Geelong does not have the profile of a team in the top 4 contending for a flag. The teams above us and several teams below us on the ladder have that profile, but not us. Normally, I might be upset about such a thing, but as Kingy said tonight on 360, the fact we have even made the top 4 shows that we have the best coach in the competition by a mile. Scotty has taken our understacked team and made the best of it. That is something we should all be proud of.

I have said all year that the side needs two elite midfielders. The guys have tried hard, and you can only congratulate them on their efforts. The coaches make the most of what we have. But we just don't have the cattle to win a flag. Shut down Paddy, Stewart, and Cameron, and the side pretty much crumbles. That's why I think we'll go out in straight sets. But the fact we'll end the season 3rd is a mighty effort considering the current squad we have.

 

[kickazz]

I'm thinking straight sets because the stats show that Geelong does not have the profile of a team in the top 4 contending for a flag. The teams above us and several teams below us on the ladder have that profile, but not us. Normally, I might be upset about such a thing, but as Kingy said tonight on 360, the fact we have even made the top 4 shows that we have the best coach in the competition by a mile. Scotty has taken our understacked team and made the best of it. That is something we should all be proud of.

I have said all year that the side needs two elite midfielders. The guys have tried hard, and you can only congratulate them on their efforts. The coaches make the most of what we have. But we just don't have the cattle to win a flag. Shut down Paddy, Stewart, and Cameron, and the side pretty much crumbles. That's why I think we'll go out in straight sets. But the fact we'll end the season 4th is a mighty effort considering the current squad we have.

(my) bolded parts sum about how I feel about it: Normally someone suggesting straight sets I would see as a pessimistic, negative type. But that's not the case here.

I think we'll give it an honest go, but just might not be good enough - simple as that. Given we had a pretty easy draw this year, I think we are more a 6th or 7th sort of team than 4th.

I know this much - if we win a final, any final, I think that will be a good achievement and something we can be excited about both on the night, and for what it means in experience for the younger guys.

If I close my eyes and picture us in a PF or GF, I just don't see us being properly competitive against a side with a good midfield.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

Yes, whatever happens, I know our guys will give it their all, and that's all we can ask. This is going to be a good experience for our young guys. Keeping my fingers crossed that the Cats can pull off some upsets.

 

[CatsDoItBetter]

Not exactly a prediction but I will include one but if we finish 4th and play Sydney in Sydney does anyone have an idea when the game might be?
I’m going to be in Sydney that week and trying to work out if I can go to the game.

I think we have a chance if everything goes our way to be there on grand final day. The defence is looking a lot better and the midfield has looked good enough at times.
Our best players and where we can be better than other teams his our forward assets. Rohan, Jezza, Henry, Stengle, Miers, Mannagh, Close, Hawkins, Neale and Danger are an elite group of players. And they can be very damaging in their own ways.
I think the smalls can play their role and do what they need to for the team to set up and score some goals.
Jezza we know could do anything.
I think we need one or two of Rohan, danger or Hawkins to turn back the clock. Danger we need in the middle but could turn a game or two up forward.
Or we need Neale or Henry or both to come alive for a big finals series.

If we don’t have something happen with the forwards I think we’re going out in straight sets.

 

[Stocks_go_Up]

We will struggle to make any impact... A few teams are simply better than us.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

"Straight sets" uses less letters and is more clear.

Yeah but writing it makes me sad

 

[CatToTheFuture]

The amnesia about this each year is amazing. It used to be a water tight certainty that top 4 losers won in week 2. It has been diluted in recent years a little.

Yeah but also there's usually a clearer gap between the top 4 and rest.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

I'm thinking straight sets because the stats show that Geelong does not have the profile of a team in the top 4 contending for a flag. The teams above us and several teams below us on the ladder have that profile, but not us. Normally, I might be upset about such a thing, but as Kingy said tonight on 360, the fact we have even made the top 4 shows that we have the best coach in the competition by a mile. Scotty has taken our understacked team and made the best of it. That is something we should all be proud of.

I have said all year that the side needs two elite midfielders. The guys have tried hard, and you can only congratulate them on their efforts. The coaches make the most of what we have. But we just don't have the cattle to win a flag. Shut down Paddy, Stewart, and Cameron, and the side pretty much crumbles. That's why I think we'll go out in straight sets. But the fact we'll end the season 4th is a mighty effort considering the current squad we have.

Kingy summed it up pretty well I thought.

 

[Catman]

If we manage to win a final, then that would be considered a successful season, but as this is a weak year, I couldn't help but feel it's an opportunity wasted if we don't win the flag, because I still believe our best is as good as anyones.

But I guess with the discrepancy between that best and our worst being so large, it's why we most likely won't be winning it.

 

[Interdimensional Bigfoot]

STRAIGHT SETS BABY!!!!!

 

[Klink]

If we manage to win a final, then that would be considered a successful season, but as this is a weak year, I couldn't help but feel it's an opportunity wasted if we don't win the flag, because I still believe our best is as good as anyones.

But I guess with the discrepancy between that best and our worst being so large, it's why we most likely won't be winning it.

This is absolutely spot on I reckon.

 

[Klink]

Such an exciting finals series, I don't have high expectations, and that is a good thing. There is no pressure on us.

Hope is a fantastic thing and it's what professional sport is all about.

You just never know - exciting times!

 

[dazbroncos]

I'm thinking straight sets because the stats show that Geelong does not have the profile of a team in the top 4 contending for a flag. The teams above us and several teams below us on the ladder have that profile, but not us. Normally, I might be upset about such a thing, but as Kingy said tonight on 360, the fact we have even made the top 4 shows that we have the best coach in the competition by a mile. Scotty has taken our understacked team and made the best of it. That is something we should all be proud of.

I have said all year that the side needs two elite midfielders. The guys have tried hard, and you can only congratulate them on their efforts. The coaches make the most of what we have. But we just don't have the cattle to win a flag. Shut down Paddy, Stewart, and Cameron, and the side pretty much crumbles. That's why I think we'll go out in straight sets. But the fact we'll end the season 4th is a mighty effort considering the current squad we have.

All fair points and probably the most realistic of outcomes..

Have to laugh however that Kingy has to be the one to get the straight sets shot in first… then the backhanded compliment of well done to get this far..

We have head ****ed him so hard lol

Go Catters

 

[Strange Cat]

Yeah but also there's usually a clearer gap between the top 4 and rest.

Yeah the forms of the other teams makes it really hard to be confident that the cats will go out in straight sets, top 4 statistically has a better chance of a flag than the 5-8 range. There’s really no stand out team in the top 4 imo so I would give us a decent chance .

Not saying that straight sets might not happen but if there was ever a year this would be it unless Syd really flicks the switch or Brisbane and Port get over their mental demons and which im not all that confident in predicting.

 

[dazbroncos]

We will struggle to make any impact... A few teams are simply better than us.

Sometimes you just don’t have the cattle.
And that’s ok - it just where we are at.
That said.. give it a crack like it’s the last game ever.. but sometimes your best ain’t good enough .

And getting finals pressure games into eve bottom 6 or 8 in our 23 will do immeasurable good in the long run.
Bruhn, Ollie Henry, SDK, Humphries, Neale, Mannagh,Mullin. All will be benefit from the pressure experience

And hey.. they might even jag a win or 2 if they play their best. The best is good enough but sustaining it is the issue IMO.
Go Catters

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Yeah the forms of the other teams makes it really hard to be confident that the cats will go out in straight sets, top 4 statistically has a better chance of a flag than the 5-8 range. There’s really no stand out team in the top 4 imo so I would give us a decent chance .

Not saying that straight sets might not happen but if there was ever a year this would be it unless Syd really flicks the switch or Brisbane and Port get over their mental demons and which im not all that confident in predicting.

I would say there's a broad range of outcomes but they don't all have the same probability