Review Cats down Doggies by 4 points to go 4-0

[thejester]

Yeah but they're analytical nerds who have never played a game of footy in their lives. I know the ones you're talking about.

It's all based on champion data and expected score.

They never account for the flow of the game (momentum is a myth to those guys), the millions of intricacies that influence a result, or something like a 5 day break influencing clearence/midfield numbers as the Dogs closed in the last quarter.

Probably because none of those things influence expected score?

 

[thejester]

I am really enjoying Parfitt’s season but man I’m stunned how quickly folks have forgotten how important Atkins has been over last three seasons, mostly in the midfield. Single handedly willed us over the line in a few close games.
Over comparable attributes Atkins is clearly ahead of Parfitt and has more versatility - that’s why he’ll play elsewhere if the team needs it. Parfitt has the bigger body so complements the smaller Clark etc when they’re at the bounces. Subject to form and injury, happy for both to play.

Couple of times late Atkins attacked loose balls at stoppages in a way that no one else in our current midfield can (or at least does). Reminded me of his absolute best form from mid-2022. Happy for both to play at the moment.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Atkins finished runner up in the B&F last year. He's spending time out of the middle to help develop others right now. He is absolutely zero chance of being dropped and is miles ahead of guys like Parfitt, Bowes and Clark currently.

 

[And_ROOS]

Commentators always want a close game and therefore will always hype any kind of comeback. Don't read much into it.

COLLINGWOOD ARE 95 POINTS DOWN WITH 3 MINUTES LEFT CAN THEY DO IT????

I actually hate watching the CH7 commentary for Geelong matches, BT seems to absolutely HATE anything that goes well for Geelong but its worse because as you said they have to hype a comeback and we have been leading our games this year.

Remember when Rankine scored a goal with 20seconds left to put the Croms 20 points down and JB said it was a big big big big goal?

 

[And_ROOS]

Atkins finished runner up in the B&F last year. He's spending time out of the middle to help develop others right now. He is absolutely zero chance of being dropped and is miles ahead of guys like Parfitt, Bowes and Clark currently.

In 2022 there were a lot of games where his stats looked a bit shit because he wasn't in the middle, and when the heat of the game cranked up the coaches put him in the middle and he was often crucial to the win.

No chance he is dropped, there are just some games where he is a luxury and others where his work in the middle is a necessity.

 

[iameviljez]

Couple of times late Atkins attacked loose balls at stoppages in a way that no one else in our current midfield can (or at least does)

I have never, ever seen anyone hit a footy as hard at a stoppage as PFD in the 2022 GF.

 

[fpm84]

I have never, ever seen anyone hit a footy as hard at a stoppage as PFD in the 2022 GF.

Loved Issy's game, but will go to the grave thinking Danger was robbed of the Norm. That was one of the best games of his career IMO.

 

[iameviljez]

Loved Issy's game, but will go to the grave thinking Danger was robbed of the Norm. That was one of the best games of his career IMO.

Ditto. Ablett in '08, Gram in '09 and PFD in '22 are the big Norm Smith misses for mine.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

Underrated post
Deserves more appreciation for Schitt’s Creek gif alone

 

[thejester]

I have never, ever seen anyone hit a footy as hard at a stoppage as PFD in the 2022 GF.

By current midfield I meant the guys who are fit. PFD is absolutely in a category of his own.

 

[kickazz]

I don't mind Atkins reverting to his position in defence, and there's no reason he can't have stints in the midfield from time to time either. Our coaches love versatility and he's proven to be adept at both positions.

In the midfield he was a 4th quarter specialist in 2022.

 

[kickazz]

Games against the Dogs are always weird to watch.

It's like - their midfield and clearance play is too much for us at times, we barely hang on as they move the ball down the ground, we look somewhat dominated.

And then the dogs **** it up again somehow.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

Atkins is a terrific inside midfielder and bull type, but his Achilles heel (to me) is his lack of speed when he's playing on the outside.

 

[kickazz]

COLLINGWOOD ARE 95 POINTS DOWN WITH 3 MINUTES LEFT CAN THEY DO IT????

I actually hate watching the CH7 commentary for Geelong matches, BT seems to absolutely HATE anything that goes well for Geelong but its worse because as you said they have to hype a comeback and we have been leading our games this year.

Remember when Rankine scored a goal with 20seconds left to put the Croms 20 points down and JB said it was a big big big big goal?

Can we add the brainiac Richo to the list here?

Not a cats hater like the other two - but what was with his comments about Stengle's mark on the goal line? He's like "yes he starts taking it before the line, but its half a second, how long does it take to control it" kind of stuff. I mena he was inventing a new rule interpretation on the spot. Stunningly stupid stuff.

The rule around marks near the boundary have been the same for - forever. Take it first before the line, control it after, do not fumble/double grab over the line: = a mark.

 

[Zouz Kitty]

Imagine if we win a second flag in three years and a total of five since 2007.

OMG!!! Don’t jinx us!




Edit: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/cats-down-doggies-by-4-points-to-go-4-0.1379319/post-83021152

 

[iameviljez]

Expected score is a soccer based statistic.

It’s a way of saying, given the type of shots that both sides had, what would their expected score be with average conversion at goal?

It’s a way of trying to measure who had better scoring opportunities, that’s all. Like a better version of the i50 count.

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

After Norf, we play Brisbane, Carlton, and GWS, so playing those three will give us a true indication of where the team is at.

 

[Lana]

To my mind, he doesn't quite have the tools to really excel as a small defender. Modern small defenders are, ideally, either really good distributors, or quick, dynamic line-breakers. It does take away from his number one strength - clearance ball.

I think he synergies with our other defenders really well. We have no shortage of rebounding defenders. They’re all on the older side so there is definitely space for someone willing and able to going in and with the contested groundball

 

[Finknottle]

Parfits better at clearances, better run down tackle player (one of the best in the league), better at finding the pill and better at breaking lines.

Parfitt having a great start to the season, Atkins has been a bit down. Form should be the decider.

 

[Vivy]

Can we add the brainiac Richo to the list here?

Not a cats hater like the other two - but what was with his comments about Stengle's mark on the goal line? He's like "yes he starts taking it before the line, but its half a second, how long does it take to control it" kind of stuff. I mena he was inventing a new rule interpretation on the spot. Stunningly stupid stuff.

The rule around marks near the boundary have been the same for - forever. Take it first before the line, control it after, do not fumble/double grab over the line: = a mark.

King was trying to make that argument this morning. Baffling.

 

[Finknottle]

In the midfield he was a 4th quarter specialist in 2022.

I don't think Atkins is suitable for defence anymore. He has slowed down a bit so no good guarding Charlie Cameron types. Backmen are taller now, they have to be able to intercept or spike the incoming ball to prevent it going over the back. Atkins is a midfielder now and is competing for the midfield rotation. Parfitt's form, Bruhn's emergence and the need to get games into Clark put pressure on Atkins to perform and I think he will. He's a beast when he is on.

 

[Sticksman]

Can we add the brainiac Richo to the list here?

Not a cats hater like the other two - but what was with his comments about Stengle's mark on the goal line? He's like "yes he starts taking it before the line, but its half a second, how long does it take to control it" kind of stuff. I mena he was inventing a new rule interpretation on the spot. Stunningly stupid stuff.

The rule around marks near the boundary have been the same for - forever. Take it first before the line, control it after, do not fumble/double grab over the line: = a mark.

For a guy that played 280+ games Richo really does say some dumb stuff, but only when he opens his mouth. Nice guy though.

 

[Generalissimo]

To be fair, the argument isn't quite as bad as those two chuckleheads make it sound. How long do you have to have the footy for it to be called a mark? Stengle grabbed the ball cleanly and never fumbled it, but it was legit one frame between him grabbing it and then being behind the goal line. That's 1/30 of a second. If someone in a marking contest has his hands on the ball for 0.03333 of a second before the defender punches it out, no ump is going to pay the mark. Similarly, I guess they're asking if having your hands on it for a thirtieth of a second before being out of the field of play is long enough.

That said, Stengle's grab was still 100% a mark and a very excellent decision to call the score review. But it's a fair question to ask.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

After Norf, we play Brisbane, Carlton, and GWS, so playing those three will give us a true indication of where the team is at.

Not advocating gambling - but just mentioning whats happened

Cats were basically $16 to $18 to win flag $3.60 for top 4 and even money to make the 8 - and they sat at those prices all pre season - and early into the main comp

Now $12 , $2.60 and $1.45

Personally i think you could do alot worse things than take some of the $12 on offer for the Cats for the flag . Every team needs a good injury run etc , however apart from Melb , who have a top midfield a champion ruckman and a strong defence . With all the other sides id fancy Geelongs chances . Alot of those other teams alot of them you cant trust them , where as i think you can trust the Cats

 

[kickazz]

Similarly, I guess they're asking if having your hands on it for a thirtieth of a second before being out of the field of play is long enough.

Yes it is. Always has been. Everyone knows this.