How many years away are Melbourne from making the finals?

[teddies]

when human players are replaced by robots.

 

[juss]

If we are talking finals only, every side can potentially make it within 2 years.

 

[1873 United]

I was reviewing the list today, and took on a comparator with the saints.

Oddly enough, I think we may see the saints playing finals before the dees, and there are a couple of reasons for that.
1. Melbourne has a list of players still mentally affected by the years 06-13
2. To many of the Melbourne players 20-23 have not had the development required due to huge coaching change outs and lack of senior players to give direction.
3. St. Kilda are likely to keep a num her of senior players on the list, who have come through the GF era, until the club can have another tilt.
4. 2017 is the year that the saints will start showing improvement, and 2018 finals.

 

[legend166]

I think you'll probably look at the list at the end of 2016 and two thirds of it will be different to the list of 2013. Roos has shown the ability to change the look of a list very quickly - the Swans team in 2011 when he handed it over to Longmire was very different to the list of 2008. We all know what that list went on to do.

Obviously Melbourne is coming from a much, much lower base. But I think by 2016 Roos will have transformed the club and built a very competitive list that could be pushing for finals.

 

[Omega Blue]

could easily be next year, typical group think says nothing changes and Melbourne is on the bottom forever.
Its an elite competition and St Kilda and Fremantle proved a couple of weeks ago that all it takes is to be 5% "off your game" and the bottom team will beat a top four team by 10 goals, the only difference between a top four team and a bottom four team is maturity and consistency.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

Realistically we won't make finals next year but no reason we can't be aiming for 2016. A lot will depend on this year's trade/draft period but we have a core group of guys with plenty there and time on their side. Guys like Blease, Strauss, Tapscott, Nicholson & Byrnes should be be gone this year and are only getting games now to be given a chance to show what they have mainly for trade value (we also have not much else to come up through).

We've been inconsistent this year which is to be expected but really we've been in most games right up to the last 5-10 minutes and have been pretty unlucky in more than a couple particularly the two Dogs and two Port games. I think we've led in the finals quarter in 7 games and lost them so with a bit more experience and upgrading of players hopefully we'll turn a couple of those into wins next year. Even yesterday we kicked 1.10 in quarters 2 & 3 (Tyson then kicked one on 3/4 time to make it 2.10) and really should have put the game beyond the Lions before the last quarter and they wouldn't have been in it to mount the comeback. It was a terrible game from both sides but still another one we probably let slip. I don't think it's as bad as some make it, this is basically our base year after the disgraceful rubbish of the Need/Schwab years.

 

[Freomaniac]

Interesting Question.

Swans were mediocre from 1992-1994, Recruited well and got 8 wins in 1995 and made finals in 1996.

Port were miserable in 2011 and 2012 then made finals in 2013.

Melbourne are different, They actually have some good kids that are not only coming through but look like they will spend their whole career in Melbourne and become good servants. I actually thought they were going to beat the lions. Only one win I can see them get is GWS.

If they keep Frawley, they will be better, Lose Frawley and they might go back 2 years.

Heres what I think Melbourne will do...

2014: Stay on 4 wins or get one more.

2015: 6-7 wins

2016: 9-10 wins with some solid KKPs and a good midfield.

2017: 12-13 wins, narrowly miss finals on %

2018: Finals.

 

[Cudi_420]

Long way away. 2018 at the earliest.

So long as the current crop of players are leading the team, they will NOT make finals.

Harsh reality. Nate Jones is a workhorse but unfortunately epitomises losing. The amount of times I've seen a picture of him with his dead down, walking off he field after a loss...no player is supposed to lose this much.

We need a new crop to lead the new generation. Losers need to be weeded out. Jones and Dunn will stay as the workhorses but the rest will be long gone in 1-2 seasons. There is going to be another 10-12 players gone at seasons end. Roos will make Neeld's "moneyball" approach look timid in comparison.

Future generation:
Tyson
Kennedy-Harris
Hogan
Viney
Kent
maaaaaaybe Toumpas

The likes of Grimes, McDonald, Garland and Watts are contributors in their own ways, but not the match-winners we need.

Grimes is a terrible captain: turns it over at terrible times when we need him to lead most.
McDonald is a great defender but disposal lets him down.
Garland is like Jones and Dunn: a loser.
Watts is a passenger: he only performs in a good team.

There are so many holes in this team. As good as some of the signs were under Bailey, his recruiting was abysmal.

2007
- Morton (ahead of Palmer, Dangerfield, Rioli) - Fail
- Grimes - Solid, but a butcher
- Maric - Gone
- Cheney - Gone

2008
- Watts - Tradable asset. Passenger.
- Blease - Fail
- Strauss - Fail
- Bennell - Gone
- Jetta - WIN
- Bail - Fail
- Jurrah - lol
- McKenzie - Fail

2009
- Scully - Gone
- Trengove - Jury's out
- Gysberts - Fail
- Tapscott - Fail
- Gawn - Fail
- Fitzpatrick - Fail

2010
- Cook - Fail (never played a game, compromised draft)
- Howe - WIN
- Davis - Fail

Neeld's tenure
2011
Compromised draft - write-off

2012
Toumpas - Fail so far
Viney - easy pick
Dean Kent - WIN
Matt Jones - Butcher
Terlich - Butcher

2013
Salem - Jury's out, but very promising
Kennedy-Harris - WIN

That's four draft wins in 7 years. SEVEN YEARS.

Ultimately, the team created over 7 years has been a team of butchers and workhorses. No class until we acquired the likes of Salem, JKH and Tyson. That's a colossal failure rate.

Last year before Roos was on board we were all saying how bad Melbourne's drafting had been. Nothing's changed. It's been 12 months. This is rebuild No.3 since 2008. It starts this draft period.

*head, desk*

 

[Northworth]

earth years?

 

[The Swert]

I think they were unlucky to lose Jurrah, Wonaeamirri and Clark. Could've built a forward line around them.

 

[Freofalcon]

 

[Heir_Apparent]

Any team no matter their position and situation are more than 2 years from finals if things go right.
They are young, need to build the list to the point where you have 8 players outside of your 22 that can walk in, need a lot of the list to have 100 games under their belt and that is 4 seasons.
Judge them next year, if they improve again then they are a chance for 2016.

 

[Stratton_Gun]

Can never tell but I'd be surprised if it was the next 3years

 

[scott_the_man]

20 years or so

 

[Forward Press]

If we are talking finals only, every side can potentially make it within 2 years.

Or even one. Being a self-centred fanboi, we made finals the year after a spoon not so long ago.

Of course it is not that common but anything can happen within a couple of seasons.

 

[Sprout]

2018 would be my guess (4 years away). If it comes sooner than that I'll be surprised. Jonesy will be hoping it comes a bit sooner but there's a lot of work ahead. The list needs a fairly major overhaul to be rid of the players who just can't recover from the last 8 years of dross (development, results etc). Roos seems to be gearing up for a decent clean out come the end of the season.

The senior players to steer the youth going forward are the likes of Vince, Cross and Dawes, who have not been sucked into the abyss just yet. This is where someone like Malceski or O'Keefe can play an important role.

The youth foundation isn't that bad. Adding to Viney, Hogan, Tyson, JKH, Kent etc, if the likes of Salem, Toumpas, Michie and a fully for Trengove can come on next year it will help enormously (none of whom played in that abortion of a game over the weekend). Then you have the almost total unknowns like Barry and Harmes who have shown some promise at VFL level. Even if a few of them come on, it will be a boost.

 

[MUYB]

depends, when is nate jones going to start having boys?

 

[I am Jack]

If they trade aggressively and land Shiel, Cameron or Treloar, then I can see big improvements.
2-3 years should be their aim.

 

[my name was taken]

Hopefully 2016, just so we can stop feeling bad about it being brought up every year

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

Depends on how many better teams want to make the finals before them.

 

[Cudi_420]

they got the right list now, 2 key forwards in Dawes (26), Hogan (19)
capable rucks, Fitzpatrick (23), Gawn (22), Spencer (24)
midfield, Jones (26), Toumpas (20), Vince (28), Viney (20), Salem (19), Trengove (22)
But more importantly, their back-line is starting to do the job for them and they are very young too so it's all there but it may take another year (maybe 2) before they begin winning the improbable on a far more frequent basis.

The problem is we lack depth.

Salem, Toumpas, Trengove are replaced in the side by Tapscott, McKenzie and Riley.

Jamar is rucking alone because Gawn and Spencer are awful.

There's no doubting there is a core there but Roos must focus on depth, adding role players of the Vince and Cross variety. Trade top drafts picks.

 

[mcuzzy]

bout tree fiddy

*jack watts is actually loch ness monster

 

[eth-dog]

2016 or 2017 for me

 

[Hawker55]

If they don't make finals in 2016 I'd be surprised.

 

[LBJ6]

2016