How many years away are Melbourne from making the finals?

[Falchoon]

Although Melbourne have undoubtedly improved this season.

They've improved since last season and are now tracking to be where they were 2 years ago under Neeld. 4 wins* and ~70%



*GWS (and North) to come.

 

[Sprout]

They've improved since last season and are now tracking to be where they were 2 years ago under Neeld. 4 wins* and ~70%



*GWS (and North) to come.

I'll be shocked if we win another game from here.

Some players know their time is up, and it's now showing on the field.

Unfortunately it's another season where the end can't come soon enough.

 

[Final Siren]

[...] Harsh reality. Nate Jones is a workhorse but unfortunately epitomises losing. The amount of times I've seen a picture of him with his dead down, walking off he field after a loss...no player is supposed to lose this much. [...]

This prompted me to look up the worst winning records for players. Apparently Ted Hall played 73 games for St Kilda from 1987-1902 for 1 win. That would have gotten a bit annoying.

Nathan Jones is ranked 15th amongst current players. All of the top 20 are Melbourne, GWS, or GC players.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Could do it as soon as 2016. Personally think their list especially mid/defence has a good balance to it, just a matter of time.

Players I believe capable of playing finals level football:

FB: Jetta, Dunn, Grimes
HB: Howe, McDonald, Terlich
C: Vince, Viney, Trengove*
HF: Pedersen, Dawes, Frawley*
FF:
R: Jamar, Tyson, N.Jones
Int: Cross,

Players yet to convince me, but have the potential to: Gawn, Salem, JKH, Kent, Watts, Hogan.

Ideally you'd like to squeeze out a Terlich and Pedersen, but when everyone around them improves I feel they have enough to be reliable role players.

Based on that they need some outside users and star mid-small forwards. If they get a Petracca and Hogan/Salem/JKH come on quickly, they'll be knocking on the door around 10th-12th next year.

 

[Xtreme]

It's hilarious that after a few wins Roosy was labelled the messiah. But now with Melbourne retaining the status quo of losing it's the players not knowing how to win all over again.

 

[Sprout]

Could do it as soon as 2016. Personally think their list especially mid/defence has a good balance to it, just a matter of time.

Players I believe capable of playing finals level football:

FB: Jetta, Dunn, Grimes
HB: Howe, McDonald, Terlich
C: Vince, Viney, Trengove*
HF: Pedersen, Dawes, Frawley*
FF:
R: Jamar, Tyson, N.Jones
Int: Cross,

Players yet to convince me, but have the potential to: Gawn, Salem, JKH, Kent, Watts, Hogan.

Ideally you'd like to squeeze out a Terlich and Pedersen, but when everyone around them improves I feel they have enough to be reliable role players.

Based on that they need some outside users and star mid-small forwards. If they get a Petracca and Hogan/Salem/JKH come on quickly, they'll be knocking on the door around 10th-12th next year.

Pointless having Jamar on there. He has maybe another season and that's it. Likewise Cross.

Can take Terlich and Grimes out of the team. Neither would be getting a gig at another team in the top half of the table. Grimes maybe as depth but Terlich, no chance.

JKH has shown enough. He should be in. Hogan yet to debut, but he will be also.

Watt's "potential" is fading fast. I've been a defender of him but he's all but lost me. He can strike a football as well as anyone going around, but the game of football surrounding that skill is another matter.

Have to add Toumpas to the potentials, purely on the basis of him being a Pick 4 in just his second year.

Pretty much agree with the rest. Fair analysis.

 

[Schauermann]

If we are talking finals only, every side can potentially make it within 2 years.

This.

But could be a decade or more as well...

 

[Ricmel]

I don't see them making the 8 with this list and who they will be up against in the next 5 years. Whilst they have a few young players with great potential, those drafting mistakes of the past 6 years are going to bite them because they do not have a team that is developing together. Factor in maybe losing Frawley and a few of their better players heading toward the 30s.

Hogan will need to a superstar if this list is to seriously challenge.

BTW - had Mitch Clark been there I think the picture would look very different.

 

[Kram]

Though Watts might lift his game under a new coach but has slipped back to mediocre, may as well look at punting him on whilst he still has some semblance of trade value.

 

[Sprout]

I don't see them making the 8 with this list and who they will be up against in the next 5 years. Whilst they have a few young players with great potential, those drafting mistakes of the past 6 years are going to bite them because they do not have a team that is developing together. Factor in maybe losing Frawley and a few of their better players heading toward the 30s.

Hogan will need to a superstar if this list is to seriously challenge.

BTW - had Mitch Clark been there I think the picture would look very different.

There's no denying this hurt. Alot.

Dawes as a lone target (bar fill ins like Frawley) was never the plan. Hogan, Clark and Dawes this season, and I believe the win column would be looking healthier.

Spilt milk now.

 

[The King!]

wont win a flag in the next 30 years, finals though im sure they will make it at least once before Roos leaves

 

[Scotland]

They've improved since last season and are now tracking to be where they were 2 years ago under Neeld. 4 wins* and ~70%

Halfway to where they were under Bailey.

I'd say they are two years off at best. Roos is still coaching them not to get flogged rather than to win.

A lot can change, though. Roos has had nearly a season in charge and is going into his 2nd draft/trade/FA period. It will be interesting to see what approach they go with with regards to who goes, what type of player they go after, whether they chase established players or kids etc.

 

[West Coast Weasel]

Still a few more years, expansion teams will clog up the eight soon with their talented kiddies. I'm more curious to see how they go in the post-Roos era.

 

[JuddsABlue]

Its foolish to say any team cant make the top eight in 2 years imo

Things change fast in this game

 

[BobaFett]

They will never make the finals again.

Its not about being able to polish a turd, the MFC couldn't polish a diamond. Give them the whole draft, and all would turn to garbage. Toumpas was meant to be the best mid in his draft, he can't handle VFL these days.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Your would hope by the time Roos leaves the next coach that comes in will have a team ready to push the lower spots in the eight.

 

[00Stinger]

It's hilarious that after a few wins Roosy was labelled the messiah. But now with Melbourne retaining the status quo of losing it's the players not knowing how to win all over again.

You pop up with the same shit in every Melbourne thread

 

[Sprout]

They will never make the finals again.

Its not about being able to polish a turd, the MFC couldn't polish a diamond. Give them the whole draft, and all would turn to garbage. Toumpas was meant to be the best mid in his draft, he can't handle VFL these days.

Good contribution. Really, top shelf stuff.

Stick to discussing Star Wars perhaps.

 

[Power Raid]

2018

 

[Kram]

They will never make the finals again.

Its not about being able to polish a turd, the MFC couldn't polish a diamond. Give them the whole draft, and all would turn to garbage. Toumpas was meant to be the best mid in his draft, he can't handle VFL these days.

Go give yourself a good polishing.

 

[Sydney Bloods]

4-5 years IF they are going to get their with this group.

get rid of the rot bring in new kids and develop them, throw in some rejects and sprinkle with a key signing.

if they aren't there in 4-5 years they will need another rebuild.

 

[PTizzle]

Anywhere from 2 to god knows. All we know is that they won't make it next year - I expect more improvement and consistency but there's some heavy lifting to do with that list.

I think a fair few of their players (Watts is probably one of the main ones for me) will really thrive when they have more confidence, so the upwards trajectory might happen quite quickly once it clicks. The skills in the side are poor but they'll no doubt address this.

Key position stocks are reasonable, Clark retiring really hurts but Hogan should be good and Dawes is a serviceable second tall. Tom McDonald's shown a bit and Frawley might hang around (if not, they'll get a pick to bolster one of the areas they lack in).

Hopefully next year they can start balancing the defence with a bit of offense.

 

[underthestars]

It will probably take them a couple of seasons to get rid of the players too damaged by the legacy of Bailey/Neeld, and draft in a few good players Roos can develop from fresh...

In a couple of seasons Roos won't be there to develop them from fresh.

 

[DaVillaBlues]

Somewhere around the 2017 - 2020 mark, although i still think there is a fair bit of untapped potential at the Dees, its far to early to write off the likes of Toumpas etc

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

In a couple of seasons Roos won't be there to develop them from fresh.

What a weird response. He can develop from fresh the players he's got in last season and for the next two seasons, though, can't he? Developing a footy team skills & culture is a process, one which has already begun at Melbourne. So I expect the Dee's to have reached the middle tier by the end of 2016. By that I mean 8 wins at a minimum. That means he has to cull the deadwood over the next few years, and recruit some good, hard players into the team.