Analysis If Dustin Martin wins a 4th Norm Smith medal and premiership will he be regarded as the greatest player of all time?

[Vassp]

Exhibit A, Your Honour...

What is troubling you? i thought what I said was obvious but then again who knew.

 

[Mr Meow]

drrr, wouldnt it be obvious ?

How do you compare them to "Not a GOAT or close" Dunstall's 78 goals from 21 finals matches spread over 11 different seasons Hawthorn made finals (so not a 4 year peak, a full career tally)? Great player doing his damage forward of centre, somewhat reliant on a team that has the edge up the field - like Martin.

He had a much better record therefore in winning finals sides, just like Martin but does have two bags of six and a bag of four from his losing finals catalogue.

 

[Vassp]

How do you compare them to "Not a GOAT or close" Dunstall's 78 goals from 21 finals matches spread over 11 different seasons Hawthorn made finals (so not a 4 year peak, a full career tally)? Great player doing his damage forward of centre, somewhat reliant on a team that has the edge up the field - like Martin.

He had a much better record therefore in winning finals sides, just like Martin but does have two bags of six and a bag of four from his losing finals catalogue.

NO doubt Dustal was a great player and a clinical forward, but Hawthorn delivered the ball to JD with clockwork precision, helping him quit a bit.

Dusty on the other hand made lots of somethings from nothing and changed the game. BIG difference.




but if ONE player won 4 x NS medals , he would be automatically be considered the greatest finals player of all time? That is my point.

 

[Fadge]

How do you compare them to "Not a GOAT or close" Dunstall's 78 goals from 21 finals matches spread over 11 different seasons Hawthorn made finals (so not a 4 year peak, a full career tally)? Great player doing his damage forward of centre, somewhat reliant on a team that has the edge up the field - like Martin.

He had a much better record therefore in winning finals sides, just like Martin but does have two bags of six and a bag of four from his losing finals catalogue.

And no doubt if you give Dunstall a mulligan for a couple of sub-par performances, like the Richmond folk do for Dusty (too old, too young, too injured, team not good enough), the average of nearly 4 goals per finals game will be even more impressive...

 

[Mr Meow]

NO doubt Dustal was a great player and a clinical forward, but Hawthorn delivered the ball to JD with clockwork precision, helping him quit a bit.

Dusty on the other hand made lots of somethings from nothing and changed the game. BIG difference.




but if ONE player won 4 x NS medals , he would be automatically be considered the greatest finals player of all time? That is my point.

Ah I see, so there's caveats for other players and unquantifiable "it was the vibe, man" to propel Martin leagues above his contemporaries.

The whole Richmond swarming game plan was to overwhelm and pressure opponents (with immaculate presentation behind the ball) then slingshot at breakneck speed to Martin Vs a middling defender. It was well crafted and Martin played his role without fault for those 3 seasons when the Richmond machine purred.

In reality this is the case for a lot of forwards or attacking mid/forwards - maybe some more than others. Old man Ablett struggled when his side were destroyed in the '94 and '95 grand finals; Martin wasn't so damaging in those 4 EF's and losing QF/PF over the years.

But it's the whole "incomparable" type statements that brush aside or aren't even aware of others which highlight biases the most.

 

[Vassp]

Ah I see, so there's caveats for other players and unquantifiable "it was the vibe, man" to propel Martin leagues above his contemporaries.

The whole Richmond swarming game plan was to overwhelm and pressure opponents (with immaculate presentation behind the ball) then slingshot at breakneck speed to Martin Vs a middling defender. It was well crafted and Martin played his role without fault for those 3 seasons when the Richmond machine purred.

In reality this is the case for a lot of forwards or attacking mid/forwards - maybe some more than others. Old man Ablett struggled when his side were destroyed in the '94 and '95 grand finals; Martin wasn't so damaging in those 4 EF's and losing QF/PF over the years.

But it's the whole "incomparable" type statements that brush aside or aren't even aware of others which highlight biases the most.

SO martin was a vibe was he ? mate go bark up a different tree. I don't need to read your whole post.

 

[Mr Meow]

SO martin was a vibe was he ? mate go bark up a different tree. I don't need to read your whole post.

Echo chamber is that way. ->

If other players records, or any kind of context can't be provided at all (it being the general GOAT thread in reality) this thread might as well be packaged up and sent to the Richmond board.

 

[Vassp]

Echo chamber is that way. ->

If other players records, or any kind of context can't be provided at all (it being the general GOAT thread in reality) this thread might as well be packaged up and sent to the Richmond board.

I like people conveying points and think that forums are a great place to share, I don't need to be right, chose your words better, and you'll get a different response. Putting down what I said and comparing it to the vibe is ridiculous.

If anyone on here would know anything about the vibe it would certainly be me.

 

[Noidnadroj]

No, I’m not clutching at anything. Martin’s contest in any given game could be against any one of a dozen players. Sometimes they will be a specialist defender, sometimes they will be against an attacking midfielder, sometimes they might even be against a ruckman. Same as the contests of any other midfielder who goes forward a bit.

Comparing his one on one percentage to players who are exclusively competing for possession with a defender who’s role it is to stop them taking possession is comparing apples with oranges.

I would also assume - I am happy to be wrong - that a one v one percentage is calculated on every time a player has a contest with a single opponent for possession.

For key forwards, the majority of those contests are going to be in the air, where logically you would say an opponent has the best chance to at least square the contest.

Compare his ability to win a contest against other players with a similar role all you like but I don’t think it’s relevant to bring key position players into it

It measures 1v1 aerial contests, not ground balls. A player either wins the ball, their opponent wins the ball, or the ball isn’t won by either player (ie goes out if bounds, another player roves the contest etc…).

I do admire your ingenuity ….you’ve managed to turn a stat that is generally dominated by key forwards, into a stat that apparently actually favours smaller players because a smaller player in Martin - and only Martin, nobody else - happens to dominate it.

Your logic is seriously lacking as if it really favoured non key forwards they’d all dominate it … they don’t.


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[Mr Meow]

I like people conveying points and think that forums are a great place to share, I don't need to be right, chose your words better, and you'll get a different response. Putting down what I said and comparing it to the vibe is ridiculous.

If anyone on here would know anything about the vibe it would certainly be me.

Alright, I could've been more direct.

"Dusty on the other hand made lots of somethings from nothing and changed the game. BIG difference."

Across his 16 or so career finals, he's done this and other forwards haven't? Or attacking mids? Look at Michael Long through the '93 finals series, breaking the game open time after time as opposition could only look on in awe. How do you compare Martin's 2017 finals series with Long's 1993?

 

[Noidnadroj]

Teams don't just say in games against Richmond "anyone who is in the area just go and pick up Dusty." That would be suicidal. This statistic isn't a matter of who Dusty's contests in the game are against, it is his offensive 1 v 1 contests only. You don't suddenly find Mason Cox on Dusty when the latter is standing 30m out from goal.

Opposition teams have plans for all players who might be placed in dangerous positions forward of the ball. I find it intriguing how you can look at the list of elite mids, mid-forwards and forward that I provided with their corresponding offensive 1 v 1 contest %'s and see something other than Dustin Martin is clearly extremely good at this aspect of football. Like all time good. He is not just in the lead, it is him then daylight then the who's who of highly rated mids and mid-forwards of the AFL, and at a really important aspect of the game.

Dusty didn't somehow dominate the scoreboard in all those finals because the opposition forgot about him and he happened to fluke some soft opponents. Opposition teams are banging their heads together all week and coming up with their best plans to stop him. Because they know what the result is if you don't stop him. Dusty is not an idiot of course, he can see where a rotation has happened and he might have a favourable matchup so he will move forward. But this is available to every other player as well.

Here are your key forwards for 2023. Both number of contests won and % of contests won, but the list is ordered top to bottom according to highest win %.

View attachment 1724152


Here is the same list but for all other forwards...

View attachment 1724153

The only other group significantly represented, Rucks...

View attachment 1724156


And then the combined list with all players....

View attachment 1724157

What we can see is key forwards are not under-represented on the overall list. If you took Oscar and Dusty out of their respective lists then all the lists would look roughly similar in terms of what % of contests the leaders are winning and then how it descends from there. Oscar is a bit of a one off in 2023, his career % is 26, where Dusty is an outlier every year with a career % above 49, way ahead of anyone else. I am pretty surprised you can't see the benefit in a player being able to consistently win a high percentage of his offensive 1 v 1 contests. And in Dusty's case you also get the very damaging bal use that goes with it.

Over a decade it’s the key forwards who come out near the top…. a smaller player might ‘spike’ a good season of 1v1 wins, but then next season they go back to 25% etc… from memory Hawkins was up around 40% career, Buddy was 37%, Martin was 50%.

If you can be bothered it would be interesting to see a career of key forwards / medium permanent forwards (Fritsch, Breust etc) and then mids who play significant forward minutes (Petracca, DeGoey, Danger, Martin, Bont, Zac Bailey etc….)

And I thought it was 1v1 aerial contests up forward (if it is brought to ground and the player gains possession that’s a win). Maybe you can confirm if it’s any offensive 1v1 contest even if it doesn’t start as a marking contest…. Although I guess it would almost be exclusively marking contests if it’s 1v1.


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[PhatBoy]

It measures 1v1 aerial contests, not ground balls. A player either wins the ball, their opponent wins the ball, or the ball isn’t won by either player (ie goes out if bounds, another player roves the contest etc…).

I do admire your ingenuity ….you’ve managed to turn a stat that is generally dominated by key forwards, into a stat that apparently actually favours smaller players because a smaller player in Martin - and only Martin, nobody else - happens to dominate it.

Your logic is seriously lacking as if it really favoured non key forwards they’d all dominate it … they don’t.


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Oh ffs do you guys ever bother addressing what is being said? I’m not even talking DOWN his level I’m simply saying that mentioning the names of key forwards has no real relevance to it.

 

[Mr Meow]

NO doubt Dustal was a great player and a clinical forward, but Hawthorn delivered the ball to JD with clockwork precision, helping him quit a bit.

Dusty on the other hand made lots of somethings from nothing and changed the game. BIG difference.




but if ONE player won 4 x NS medals , he would be automatically be considered the greatest finals player of all time? That is my point.

Also, if this was true of Hawthorn, and they won so many flags against great sides, why don't we rate their midfielders/defenders/flankers - 70s and 80s - up there with Dusty (besides Matthews)? Because they fed Dunstall and Brereton etc 12 goals a match instead of finishing off themselves? But then those two weren't big time finals performers because they got silver service?

Hudson wasn't playing for Hawthorn for all but 1 of those premierships so he's discounted because his peak didn't coincide with Hawthorn's peak era?

There are dozens of other examples.

That's where its silly to say "undisputably the best finals player of all time".

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Oh ffs do you guys ever bother addressing what is being said? I’m not even talking DOWN his level I’m simply saying that mentioning the names of key forwards has no real relevance to it.

And we are saying that what you are saying is incorrect. Not even sure you weren't the first to mention key forwards. It is beside the point. Dusty's standing in this metric is above every other player during his career. When he is in a 1 v 1 forward of the ball he wins the contest roughly 50% of the time. No other player wins the same contests more than roughly 40% of the time and there are in fact very few even at that level.

It is like you are trying to argue the point while simultaneously claiming you are not arguing the point. At least two posters now have answered your point in different ways and you are for some unknowable reason trying to claim nobody is addressing your point. Why make that claim?

 

[PhatBoy]

And we are saying that what you are saying is incorrect. Not even sure you weren't the first to mention key forwards. It is beside the point. Dusty's standing in this metric is above every other player during his career. When he is in a 1 v 1 forward of the ball he wins the contest roughly 50% of the time. No other player wins the same contests more than roughly 40% of the time and there are in fact very few even at that level.

It is like you are trying to argue the point while simultaneously claiming you are not arguing the point. At least two posters now have answered your point in different ways and you are for some unknowable reason trying to claim nobody is addressing your point. Why make that claim?

The way it was put forward it read simply as a percentage of 1 vs 1 contests for the ball anywhere: ground or air - and I don’t know that MR in particular has said otherwise.

 

[Vassp]

Also, if this was true of Hawthorn, and they won so many flags against great sides, why don't we rate their midfielders/defenders/flankers - 70s and 80s - up there with Dusty (besides Matthews)? Because they fed Dunstall and Brereton etc 12 goals a match instead of finishing off themselves? But then those two weren't big time finals performers because they got silver service?

Hudson wasn't playing for Hawthorn for all but 1 of those premierships so he's discounted because his peak didn't coincide with Hawthorn's peak era?

There are dozens of other examples.

That's where its silly to say "undisputably the best finals player of all time".

not really, if someone wins so many NM medals well it does say something.

 

[Noidnadroj]

I didn’t say otherwise.

I just don’t think it’s as simple as saying ‘he has the highest percentage of wins therefore he must be the best contested player.’

That’s a blanket statement that doesn’t allow any variables. It’s like looking at two cricketers and saying ‘this one has a higher batting average ergo he is a better batsman.’ It factors in nothing else apart from one statistic.

And yes as far as his 1 on 1 contest ability goes when compared to other players of his size and role, that’s fine I don’t doubt that he probably is statistically just as good as that figure suggests.

But that figure equally doesn’t prove he’s a better contested player than others who have totally different roles either. That is all I am saying.

The statistic isn’t saying he’s the best player or best contested player or best forward … this specific statistic is saying he’s the best at winning 1v1 offensive contests over the last decade and it’s not even close. That’s the stat…No-one is saying he’s clearly number 1 in this stat so must be the best forward.

I do understand the point you are trying to make, but the bottom like is if there was 20-seconds left in a match at a centre bounce, and you win the clearance, and you were down by 5-points and you could choose just 1 player over the last decade to be involved in a 1v1 contest up forward to win the ball and kick a goal, you’re choosing Martin - he can out muscle smaller opponents, and he’s too smart and agile for larger ones, so it doesn’t matter who you many him up with, he’s more likely to win the contest than anyone else. Stats over a decade don’t lie.


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[Mr Meow]

not really, if someone wins so many NM medals well it does say something.

Yes, that Martin is the GOAT and then Ayres, Hodge and McLeod are tied for second GOAT. JJ, Shannon Grant, Shaun Hart, Andrew Embley and many others tied for third GOAT.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Over a decade it’s the key forwards who come out near the top…. a smaller player might ‘spike’ a good season of 1v1 wins, but then next season they go back to 25% etc… from memory Hawkins was up around 40% career, Buddy was 37%, Martin was 50%.

If you can be bothered it would be interesting to see a career of key forwards / medium permanent forwards (Fritsch, Breust etc) and then mids who play significant forward minutes (Petracca, DeGoey, Danger, Martin, Bont, Zac Bailey etc….)

And I thought it was 1v1 aerial contests up forward (if it is brought to ground and the player gains possession that’s a win). Maybe you can confirm if it’s any offensive 1v1 contest even if it doesn’t start as a marking contest…. Although I guess it would almost be exclusively marking contests if it’s 1v1.


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I couldn't be certain precisely how Champion Data defines offensive 1 v 1 contest for the purposes of this statistic.

This is what a quick search came up with from a glossary on AFL.com.au :



My best guess would be that it counts contests where you are isolated 1 v 1 forward of centre that is targetted with a kick, but the ball may not arrive at the contest on the full.

Edit: here is how CD themselves define 1 v 1 contests

One-On-One Contest: A 50-50 contest that occurs after a kick, and involves only two players – a target player and a defender. Each player must have a reasonable chance to win the ball in order for a one-on-one to be recorded. Winning and losing percentages refer to how often a player wins the ball or concedes a possession to his opponent. A neutral result is recorded when the ball is spoiled or results in a stoppage.

So that seems to support what I am saying. We don't know if there is any limit to where these contests can take place to be defined as an "offensive 1 v 1" for the target player.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Ah I see, so there's caveats for other players and unquantifiable "it was the vibe, man" to propel Martin leagues above his contemporaries.

The whole Richmond swarming game plan was to overwhelm and pressure opponents (with immaculate presentation behind the ball) then slingshot at breakneck speed to Martin Vs a middling defender. It was well crafted and Martin played his role without fault for those 3 seasons when the Richmond machine purred.

In reality this is the case for a lot of forwards or attacking mid/forwards - maybe some more than others. Old man Ablett struggled when his side were destroyed in the '94 and '95 grand finals; Martin wasn't so damaging in those 4 EF's and losing QF/PF over the years.

But it's the whole "incomparable" type statements that brush aside or aren't even aware of others which highlight biases the most.

I love it ‘slingshot at breakneck speed to Martin versus a middling defender’. QF 2017 v Geelong … 29 touches, 12 x score involvements and 4 x goal assists… he was almost exclusively midfield . 2017 GF .. 29 touches, 22 contested, 9 Si’s, 6 clearances … playing 90% midfield … his 1v1 goal was from a centre bounce. 2018 QF v Hawks .. 29 touches, 17 contested, 10 x SI’s, 10 x clearances etc…

Maybe do a bit more research on Martin’s finals games…. I think the 2019 QF versus Brisbane where he was almost exclusively forward and kicked 6 is implanted in your brain as his role in all his finals.



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[Mr Meow]

I love it ‘slingshot at breakneck speed to Martin versus a middling defender’. QF 2017 v Geelong … 29 touches, 12 x score involvements and 4 x goal assists… he was almost exclusively midfield . 2017 GF .. 29 touches, 22 contested, 9 Si’s, 6 clearances … playing 90% midfield … his 1v1 goal was from a centre bounce. 2018 QF v Hawks .. 29 touches, 17 contested, 10 x SI’s, 10 x clearances etc…

Maybe do a bit more research on Martin’s finals games…. I think the 2019 QF versus Brisbane where he was almost exclusively forward and kicked 6 is implanted in your brain as his role in all his finals.



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I'm talking more about the grand finals where yes for his goals he was largely stationed forward and yes his team was mostly steamrolling the opposition further up the field. Seemed to happen more as the years went on, I'd say 2017 he was more of a pure mid and for me that makes his scoring metrics that finals series more impressive if we are actually comparing him with permanent midfielders. 2017 cover to cover, start to finish - March through September was a special season. I'm on record saying that 86 times now.

He may very well have done more damage in finals over a 4 year period when he rotated forward 40-50% of games, minute for minute. But it doesn't mean the things people rave about as far as his impact - goals and assists - were coming from him bursting from the stoppage and kicking miracle midfielder goals. He was roaming around the 50 or just inside against a Kolo, Tuohy, Shaw, Luke Brown type of player. And he had them for lunch, and it was entertaining. The bullying around the ball and from defence was an ever present for all but a handful of finals those 4 years, that much is also true. Too good, player to player (this is a compliment, please don't get offended).

 

[Mr Meow]

I love it ‘slingshot at breakneck speed to Martin versus a middling defender’. QF 2017 v Geelong … 29 touches, 12 x score involvements and 4 x goal assists… he was almost exclusively midfield . 2017 GF .. 29 touches, 22 contested, 9 Si’s, 6 clearances … playing 90% midfield … his 1v1 goal was from a centre bounce. 2018 QF v Hawks .. 29 touches, 17 contested, 10 x SI’s, 10 x clearances etc…

Maybe do a bit more research on Martin’s finals games…. I think the 2019 QF versus Brisbane where he was almost exclusively forward and kicked 6 is implanted in your brain as his role in all his finals.



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Bit of a random question but when were score involvements first recorded? Martin's numbers are spectacular those finals, no doubt. I'm just wondering if our comparisons to say Judd for "scoreboard impact" are goals/assists, certainly that's something to compare. But what if Judd - primetime 2004-2006 Judd - is more often the 2nd link on a chain of 4 that results in a goal, rather than 3rd (the assister) or 4th (the goal scorer)? A bit like in soccer where it's the pass to the guy who makes the assist that usually breaks the game open. Martin in finals, moreso 2019 and 2020, having a lot of time forward obviously dominated the latter goals/assists metrics (in landslides mostly...sorry I have to say it), but then for general SI's we don't have a huge dataset for a lot of past players to compare with (at least that I'm aware of). If they're pure on ballers then their SIs will be slanted to the non goal/assist variety.

Imperfect data. Even moreso when we go back to the days goal assists weren't recorded, and before that clearances. The "possessions plus goals" days make these kinds of comparisons between eras difficult. And then the Ayres award too. So we are left with Norm Smith's (one off games, where your team 95% of the time needs to win for you to have a chance), possessions and goals - when we talk about "undisputed best finals player of all time".

 

[H00t]

Bit of a random question but when were score involvements first recorded? Martin's numbers are spectacular those finals, no doubt. I'm just wondering if our comparisons to say Judd for "scoreboard impact" are goals/assists, certainly that's something to compare. But what if Judd - primetime 2004-2006 Judd - is more often the 2nd link on a chain of 4 that results in a goal, rather than 3rd (the assister) or 4th (the goal scorer)? A bit like in soccer where it's the pass to the guy who makes the assist that usually breaks the game open. Martin in finals, moreso 2019 and 2020, having a lot of time forward obviously dominated the latter goals/assists metrics (in landslides mostly...sorry I have to say it), but then for general SI's we don't have a huge dataset for a lot of past players to compare with (at least that I'm aware of). If they're pure on ballers then their SIs will be slanted to the non goal/assist variety.

Imperfect data. Even moreso when we go back to the days goal assists weren't recorded, and before that clearances. The "possessions plus goals" days make these kinds of comparisons between eras difficult. And then the Ayres award too. So we are left with Norm Smith's (one off games, where your team 95% of the time needs to win for you to have a chance), possessions and goals - when we talk about "undisputed best finals player of all time".

The furtherest back I can get SI data is from 2012. Because that’s how far back the AFL app goes.

Interestingly enough Dusty hasn’t had double figure score involvements in a grand final. And only been the highest for his team once in 2020 where he had 9.

Has reached double figures 3 times from 2017-2020. Twice in 2017 and once in 2019.

 

[Mr Meow]

The furtherest back I can get SI data is from 2012. Because that’s how far back the AFL app goes.

Interestingly enough Dusty hasn’t had double figure score involvements in a grand final. And only been the highest for his team once in 2020 where he had 9.

Has reached double figures 3 times from 2017-2020. Twice in 2017 and once in 2019.

Yeah so we don't get data on the Geelong or Brisbane sides, or the other top sides from either era, but we do for Hawthorn besides the first flag. Given how many goals that Geelong side scored and how high the averages were for goal assists from various players, I imagine the SI numbers would've been through the roof for some of the star mids and flankers. It's a shame we'll never have the data.

Based on your last point it does fit with the eye test of a goal/assist machine roaming around half forward (he actually was deepest forward often too) mostly, especially after 2017. Not a firestarter/bulldozer bursting from stoppage and being link 1, 2 or 3 on a 5 link chain resulting in a goal. "Singlehandedly delivered 3 flags/won all those finals" still seems odd, therefore.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

The furtherest back I can get SI data is from 2012. Because that’s how far back the AFL app goes.

Interestingly enough Dusty hasn’t had double figure score involvements in a grand final. And only been the highest for his team once in 2020 where he had 9.

Has reached double figures 3 times from 2017-2020. Twice in 2017 and once in 2019.

Martin was involved in 26 scores in his 3 Grand Finals, from 78 Richmond scores. Only 9 of his score involvements were not goals, behinds or goal assists. Martin's score involvements is clearly the most of any Richmond player in the 3 GF's. The 3 opposition teams only scored 45 times in these matches. 6 of those were rushed behinds.

Martin had 15 goals + goal assists. The 3 opposition teams scored 18 goals.

Why Martin's score involvements across the 3 GF's are high compared to his team-mates, but not as insanely high like his goals and goal assists is simple. His team-mates get the ball anywhere near Martin it is invariably a score, normally a goal, and they get a score involvement. But it doesn't work the other way around so much.

Hawthorn's dynasty team scored 81 times in its 3 winning Grand Finals and conceded 62 scores. You can perhaps look up how many score involvements the Hawks leading SI players had in those matches.

But Dusty's 15 goals + goal assists from 26 score involvements speaks volumes for me. He isn't a link in the chain player too often where the ball gets popped over the top to him. And I would make an educated guess Richmond's scores generally involved less players as they tended to like to go direct to goal and were happy to try to win contests in the forward line, rather than engineering shots at goal through longer chains of possession involving more players.

In fact here we go, we have a good comparison. Hawks recorded 133 score involvements in their 16.11 in the 2015 GF. Richmond recorded just 90 score involvements in scoring 16.12 in the 2017 GF. Amazingly the opposition scores were almost identical as well in both games. So they are a great comparison to show not all score involvements are created equally. Also in the 2020 GF with the final score 81-50 the score involvements were 69 Richmond, 55 Geelong, a lot closer than the final score.